Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chateaugay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:09 PM EST (21:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 931 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Rest of today..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly Sunny late this morning, then becoming cloudy.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow early, then snow from late evening on.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Saturday night.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers Sunday night.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of snow showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chateaugay, NY
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location: 45.41, -73.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 152101
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
401 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure today gives way as an advancing winter storm will
bring widespread moderate and, at times, heavy snow to the
north country Thursday night into Friday morning. Winter storm
warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect for the
north country. Expected snow totals range from 4 to 9 inches
through mid day on Friday with another round of light snow
Friday night. Quiet weather returns coming out of the weekend as
a cold airmass moves in during the middle of next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 1239 pm est Thursday... No significant changes for 1230 pm
update.

Winter storm warnings are in effect for the northern
adirondacks and for the northeast kingdom. All other winter
weather advisories remain in effect.

High pressure will slowly drift off to the north and east this
afternoon as our next winter storm will push into the region. Wv
satellite shows a mature cyclone over western kentucky with a
strong baroclinic leaf stretching out over the north country.

This system will merge energy with a developing coastal low by
midday and end up pushing widespread precip into the region late
this evening. Thermal profiles support all snow at the onset
and so we should be looking at a pretty good thump of snow.

Omega in the dgz is impressive as the warm advection snow starts
and we should see full saturation in the -12c to -18c snow
growth zone. That combination of rh and vertical lift should
result in some modest sized snow flakes mixing in. Current
thinking is that snow ratios will be in the 10-11:1 range for
the warm advection burst and then will switch around to 13-15:1
once low pulls to the northeast Friday morning into the
afternoon hours.

The biggest reason for the upgrade to warning level snow is
that models are continuing to converge on the idea that a strong
band of snow will lift into the region between 03-15z. With
strong lift and a pronounced 700mb f-gen band pivoting across
the adirondacks into the northeast kingdom its reasonable to
expect 1-2" inch an hour rates for at least 4-6 hours during the
late night hours Thursday night. Picking out exactly where the
band develops and pivots is still a challenge but its looking
like a sure thing that a strongly forced meso band will drop
some pretty heavy snow in a short period of time. This will
likely lead to some isolated power outages and will certainly
make travel difficult especially during the Friday morning
commute. The highest QPF totals fall from around 6-12z where
region wide we'll be looking at between 0.25-0.5" of liquid
equivalent.

The fly in the ointment with this system however is the warm
nose and dry slot. There's pretty consistent signal in all the
models that a dry slot will develop somewhere along southern new
england and potentially push into southern vermont. The warm
nose never really gets into the region so it will be cold enough
for snow everywhere. The problem is that most of the guidance
does show the mid level dry slot punching into the snow growth
zone for southern vermont between 9-15z. I leaned away from the
drier NAM and more towards the GFS and our local 4kmwrf which
hold on to rh a tad longer but either model you pick it still
shows some dry air moving in aloft. So the net effect of that is
that instead of ice crystals growing aloft we'll see the
sounding have supercooled water falling. So there may be some
periods over southern vermont early Friday morning where some
freezing drizzle is mixing in instead of pure snow. Its
certainly something to keep and eye on and how does that affect
the snow totals. That area is in an advisory for 4-6 inches but
its certainly possible this system under performs there.

So all totaled we'll be looking at widespread 4-8 inch snowfall
with local amounts of 8-10 possible with most of that coming
within the first 6-8 hours of precip onset. The key messages
will continue to remain that its early in the season and so
travel will be difficult especially Friday morning and that with
heavier wet snow may lead to some isolated power outages.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 400 pm est Thursday... Flow aloft will be westerly Friday
night with a shortwave trough moving across southern quebec and
northern new england. This will allow for additional light
precipitation but upslope flow will enhance precipitation across
northern new york and the northern half of vermont. Eventually
the upslope flow will relax after midnight Friday night and the
areal coverage of the precipitation should decrease. Mountains
will pick up another couple of inches as a result of the upslope
flow. Plenty of cloud cover will persist Friday night for lows
only falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Westerly flow continues on Saturday for highs in the 30s to around
40 with a chance for some showers... Especially in the
mountains... But not expecting much in the way of precipitation. High
pressure builds in Saturday night for drier weather as precipitation
comes to an end. Colder air moves in with lows in the mid teens to
lower 20s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 356 pm est Thursday... Still looking at a relatively unsettled
extended period but no major systems expected and below normal
temperatures through the entire period. High temperatures will
generally be in the low to mid 30s with lows in the low teens to
around 20... Certainly continuing the cold trend of this
november. Ridging out west will keep much of the us poised under
a broad upper level trough with continued unsettled weather
through next week.

Surface high pressure builds in on Sunday, but upper level troughing
and NW winds will keep passing clouds around, especially across the
high terrain of the adirondacks. Snow showers may be possible across
the high peaks, but expect accumulations to be limited and confined
to these areas. Moisture increases Monday as two pieces of energy
pass by the area. Best chances for precipitation will be showers
across the northern tier and southern areas, with central vermont in
the in between zones. Behind this front, cold air from canada brings
another push of well below average temperatures. Conditions look to
be similar to what we've been experience these past two days with
high temperatures in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits
to low teens. Moderating (but still below normal) temperatures and
quiet weather continues to be the early trends for thanksgiving.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions will exist through 02z then
ceilings will lower into the MVFR and ifr categories between 02z
and 06z. Ifr lifr ceilings will then persist over the area after
06z through the remainder of the period. The lower ceilings are
in response to snow moving into the region between 02z and
06z... But visibilities will still be in the MVFR andVFR
categories. After 06z steadier snow develops and looking at
visibilities lowering into the 1 to 3 mile range for the
remainder of the period. Winds will generally be 10 knots or
less through the period.

Outlook...

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est Friday
for vtz001>010-012-016>019.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Friday for vtz011.

Ny... Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est Friday
for nyz028>031-034-035.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Friday for nyz026-027-087.

Synopsis... Neiles
near term... Neiles
short term... Evenson neiles
long term... Larocca
aviation... Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 97 mi40 min 25°F 50°F1026.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT54 mi75 minESE 310.00 miFair25°F9°F51%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Thu -- 03:22 AM EST     0.63 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EST     0.65 meters High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Thu -- 04:01 AM EST     0.70 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:47 AM EST     0.73 meters High Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     0.71 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 10:22 PM EST     0.72 meters High Tide
Thu -- 11:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.