Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 8:03PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:54 AM EDT (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 7:55PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 558 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201703281800;;203857 FZUS53 KAPX 280958 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 558 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-281800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 281036
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
636 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 308 am edt Tue mar 28 2017
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
early this morning, several upper troughs seen on satellite. One
working off the new england coast, another crossing the ohio valley,
one over hudson bay, one drifting across the dakotas and finally,
one working out of the SRN rockies. The srn CONUS waves were all
associated with showers and storms, with just some spotty light
rains/showers in north dakota. NRN michigan was quiet with only some
low level clouds and patchy fog ahead of a weak sfc ridge of high
pressure over western lake superior and mn. Temperatures were locked
in the lower to middle 30s. There was a nice wedge of drier low
level air and mostly clear skies being fed southward from srn
ontario in the northerly flow ahead of the weak ridge of sfc high
pressure.

Not really much in the way of weather through tonight. The low level
drier air within the northerly flow will feed down into the region,
clear out the clouds, and finally bring NRN michigan some sunshine.

Only the weak dakotas trough will bring some higher level clouds
along with some possible shallow cumulus. High temperatures will
range from the lower 40s in eastern upper to the upper 40s and low
50s m-72 south. Deep dry air holds through tonight, with good
radiational cooling resulting in low to middle 20s. Those colder low
lying areas making it into the teens. Also, wonder about possible
fog development. Nothing see ATTM upstream, but patchy fog is
certainly possible.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday night)
issued at 308 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Precipitation chances return Thursday through early Friday...

high impact weather potential: minimal, although a bit of
accumulating snow is possible Thursday night.

Pattern forecast: mid-upper level ridging is expected to be evident
across the western great lakes by Wednesday morning with associated
canadian surface high pressure nosing in from the north resulting in
quiet conditions, some sunshine, and near-normal temperatures. At
the same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident
across the intermountain west, which is progged to result in
cyclogenesis lee of the rockies ejecting toward the great lakes
Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next threat
for sensible weather across northern michigan before high pressure
returns once again next weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: primary forecast concerns and challenges
revolve around the evolution of Thursday's system, but not before
fairly pleasant spring-like weather is the main feature for
Wednesday. Partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures
ranging from near 40 north to the mid 40s south of the bridge will
be the rule.

Forecast focus quickly turns to Thursday as aforementioned
developing low pressure moves toward the midwest/ohio valley late
Wednesday into Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to result in
high confidence with respect to a storm system across the midsection
of the country, but low confidence in the details as latest trends
over the past 24 hours have shifted the storm system considerably
further south with the highest precip chances limited to along and
south of the m-32 corridor. Will continue with a middle of the road
approach at this juncture, as did the previous shift, simply due to
a lack of confidence to make wholesale forecast changes in one
direction or another. This results in increasing pops from southwest
to northeast across northern lower michigan throughout the day
Thursday, with likely pops confined to locations south of m-55
during the afternoon hours before spreading northeastward during the
evening and overnight. P-type issues also come into question early
Thursday morning (depending on how quick initial precip is able to
arrive) and again Thursday night, but will almost be solely based on
the depth of the near-surface warm layer, which fittingly remains in
question as a wide range of possibilities exist via the latest
forecast soundings. Gut feeling is that p-type remains primarily
rain during the day Thursday thanks to a lack of deep-layer cold air
and late march diurnal processes, perhaps bounded briefly by a few
wet snowflakes across far southwestern areas early Thursday morning
and across a larger section of northern lower Thursday night. A
minor accumulation of an inch or two of wet snow in some spots
Thursday night seems feasible, especially as the main slug of
moisture pushes across the area. The system continues to progress
eastward early Friday morning with the majority of precip having
ended by the midday hours Friday.

Long term (Friday through Monday)
issued at 308 am edt Tue mar 28 2017
Thursday-Thursday night's precip diminishes Friday morning, expected
to come to an end by the midday hours. Broad west-northwesterly flow
takes hold across the great lakes over the weekend with a weak wave
or two sliding across southern canada. This may bring a period or
two of mixed precip over the weekend, more specifically Saturday
night into early Sunday; however, most of the extended period is
expected to be dry with above normal temperatures continuing. Beyond
that, signals continue to suggest a more sizable storm impacting a
portion of the upper midwest/great lakes during the early to middle
portion of next week. At this point, looks like all rain with
perhaps well above normal temperatures.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 634 am edt Tue mar 28 2017
ifr/MVFR producing low clouds will give way to improving
conditions as we head through the latter morning hours as much
drier air advances into the region. Expect just some high clouds
and possible shallow CU by this afternoon, with mostly clear skies
continuing into this evening. Light winds through this taf
duration.

Marine
Issued at 308 am edt Tue mar 28 2017
things look quiet through Thursday as sfc higher pressure noses into
the great lakes from canada. Northerly winds and drier air will
clear out skies today, before the high departs and winds turn east
Wednesday into Thursday. This will be out ahead of the next low
pressure system which brings a chance of rain for Thursday. Winds
will be sub-advisory through this time period.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mjg
long term... Mjg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi54 min N 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 1019.2 hPa (+2.3)30°F
WSLM4 30 mi54 min NE 11 34°F 1020.1 hPa (+2.5)34°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi74 min NE 8 G 8.9 33°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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E12
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G28
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SE17
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi60 minNE 45.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F99%1019.6 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI15 mi60 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1020.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi59 minN 41.75 miFog/Mist35°F34°F100%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S3NW5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmCalmNE3
1 day agoE12
G16
E10E11E11E7NE9E13E10NE7E8NE8E6NE6E4NE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE12
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G25
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E12E12
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E10E8E7E7E7E8E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.