Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:19PM Friday May 26, 2017 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1010 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Overnight..Light winds. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201705271015;;262723 FZUS53 KAPX 270210 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1010 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-271015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 270208
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1008 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

Update
Issued at 1001 pm edt Fri may 26 2017
mcv pushing nearly due east across the northern ohio
valley southern michigan this evening. Still a few mid level returns
south of the m-55 corridor, but other than the low end potential
for a few sprinkles across this area, dry weather overnight.

Additional mid high clouds spreading into the area from the west
as weak shortwave energy traverses the northern lakes. These
clouds will limit the fog stratus potential tonight but temp dwpt
spreads small enough to still warrant mentioning patchy fog.

Areas of marine stratus over the open waters of the still chilly
great lakes. Some of this may inch toward lake huron coast late
tonight or early Saturday with weak southeast flow, but believe
much of this will remain offshore. Fairly comfortable low
temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 317 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

At least the holiday weekend will start out nice...

high impact weather potential... None.

A narrow ridge of high pressure is crossing mi today, separating a
departing system (over new england) and an incoming frontal zone
(mn iowa mo). Deep convection persists with the upstream system over
eastern iowa NW il, while a few showers are also present over
western superior and the mn arrowhead. Closer to home, a decent
enough day is in progress, with varying amounts of stratocu away
from lake shadow areas. Some marine fog stratus also persists over
the still-chilly great lakes, thanks to surface dewpoints in the 50-
55f range. There may be some small precip chances as shortwaves
split around the forecast area to the north and south. But the start
of the weekend still looks like the best part of the weekend.

Tonight... Prominent MCV is expected to drive an intensifying cluster
of storms eastward across the southern lakes this evening. Forcing
associated with this vort MAX is already contributing to some virga,
seen on apx radar over central lake mi. There is an ene-ward
movement with the convective cluster presently, but a trend toward a
due-east movement is expected as it blasts thru a 500mb ridge axis.

Still, northernmost fringe of the MCS has a shot of clipping far
southern portions of this forecast area. Not a great shot, but will
maintain a slight chance for showers for the 1st half of the night
for the frankfort-lake city-gladwin areas and points south.

Otherwise, will see an expansion in layered mid high clouds, as
shortwaves transit the southern lakes and lake superior from W to e.

That will to some degree limit potential fog stratus redevelopment
(a concern given most temp dew point spreads are less than 20f).

However, will still add a mention of patchy fog in some areas of
northern lower mi for late tonight.

Min temps upper 40s to around 50f.

Saturday... Bubble high will still be over lower mi and SE ontario to
start the day. Incoming front will help dislodge that, and will edge
its way toward eastern wi and central upper mi by the end of the
day. Outside of any early morning fog stratus, a solidly partly
sunny day is anticipated, with a reasonably healthy CU field
appearing in the afternoon. NAM is likely overdoing bl moisture and
associated sbcape, and anticipate CAPE values struggling to reach
triple digits. With lake breezes charging inland during the
afternoon, it is not completely out of the question we could cook
off a stray shower in the interior of northern lower. But this
chance is not large enough to include in the forecast at this time.

A somewhat better chance exists in far western chip mack cos, very
late in the day. Remnant convection might try to sneak in from the
west (where a somewhat more moist airmass exists), and where the
front serves as a potential trigger.

Still looks like the warmest day of the weekend, with highs mainly
in the 70s, cooler on the beaches. Would not be surprised to see a
stray 80f or two in northern lower mi.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 317 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

Cooler and showery for Sunday and memorial day...

high impact weather potential... Minimal. Chance of thunderstorms
Sunday and Monday with a marginal risk for a severe storm near
saginaw bay on Sunday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Weak upper ridge axis will push east of
the upper great lakes Saturday evening. Upper flow then turns SW as
a digging trough drops into the upper midwest, carrying a few weak
vort maxes across northern michigan through daybreak Sunday. The
main trough axis and an associated weak surface low will rotate
across northern mi Sunday afternoon evening. As another wave of
energy drops south from central canada and is absorbed into the
parent trough Sunday night into Monday, the system will morph into a
closed upper low that will rotate across upper michigan lake
superior, resulting in another period of unsettled weather. Moisture
looks to be ample (at least on Sunday), with pwats climbing above
1". Slightly drier air will sweep in Sunday night into Monday with
pwats around 0.75"... Still sufficient for lingering shower activity.

Mostly cloudy skies, showers, and cooling 850mb temperatures will
result in a cooler day on Sunday with highs lucky to reach 70
degrees across interior northern lower. 60s near the lakes and
across eastern upper. The upper low will result in an influx of
cooler air aloft on memorial day with highs a few degrees cooler.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower thunderstorm chances through the
latter half of the holiday weekend.

Weak vort maxes lifting northeast across the area Saturday night are
not expected to produce enough lift to support more than a few
showers. Moisture will be increasing from west to east, but the lift
just doesn't look very strong. Sunday continues to look like the
wettest day of the holiday weekend as the main upper trough and a
surface low move across northern mi. Strongest omega from dpva and
divergence aloft will occur from afternoon into evening coincident
with the strongest daytime heating. That being said, cloud cover
will be fairy extensive on Sunday, which will limit diurnal
instability. Depending on the track of the surface low, which will
limit northward advection of higher theta-e air (considerable model
differences with regard to this), sbcapes could be a few hundred
j kg or slim to none. General model consensus seems to be converging
towards a solution tracking the low through saginaw bay which would
keep the bulk of the instability just to our south. Still, the
strong lift, favorable moisture, marginal instability, and decent 0
to 6km bulk shear would make it tough to rule out a few
thunderstorms, including perhaps a better organized storm down
towards saginaw bay. SPC does have our far southeast CWA clipped by
a day 3 marginal risk.

Once the main upper trough and surface low exit the area late Sunday
evening, the drier air and loss of lift should lead to a break in
rain for most areas the rest of the night (slightly better chances
lingering across eastern upper). Vort maxes rotating around the
closed low on memorial day will lead to scattered shower activity
again, though likely less widespread than Sunday. Can't rule out a
few thunderstorms, but forcing will be weaker than Sunday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 317 pm edt Fri may 26 2017
unsettled weather continues into the first half of the extended
period. A closed low will set up shop between superior and hudson
bay, rotating occasional waves over the great lakes... Like spokes
around a wheel. So timing the "wet" vs. "dry" periods will be the
forecast challenge Monday night through Wednesday. The location of
this low will also be ideal (or "unideal" depending on your
perspective) for dragging cooler canadian air down across the
lakes... Keeping us cooler than normal through the aforementioned
time frame. On the bright side, it looks like a ridge of high
pressure will build in from the west for Thursday and Friday... And
kick this low eastward so we can end the work week on a dry note,
with temperatures moderating to just shy of climo.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 723 pm edt Fri may 26 2017
potential for brief MVFR conditions tonight into Saturday morning,
butVFR expected most of the time.

System will pass south of the area tonight, spreading clouds into
northern michigan but no precipitation. Low levels remain fairly moist,
and with the great lakes still chilly, marine fog stratus may
start to expand out again tonight. For now, localized MVFR
conditions (mainly cigs) are the main concern. Patchy fog also
possible, with generallyVFR vsbys.

Clouds thin and dissipate on Saturday withVFR conditions at all
terminals.

Light winds throughout the period.

Marine
Issued at 317 pm edt Fri may 26 2017
weak high pressure will be the main player into early Saturday.

This will keep winds waves unimpressive, with lake breezes the
dominant influence each afternoon evening. Winds will become
westerly by late Sunday as a front passes, though mainly light
winds are still expected. Marine fog stratus will continue to
bedevil some of the nearshore waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jrk
near term... Jz
short term... Mek
long term... Kab
aviation... Jrk
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 5 mi22 min S 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 44°F1013 hPa46°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi44 min W 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1010.7 hPa45°F
45175 30 mi22 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 48°F1 ft1012 hPa
WSLM4 30 mi32 min SSE 2.9 54°F 47°F1011.5 hPa (+0.9)48°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi52 min E 5.1 G 6 51°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair46°F46°F99%1011.8 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI15 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F50°F81%1011.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair54°F50°F88%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4CalmSW3SW4SW5SW9SW6SW5SW6SW6SW6SW5SW4SW3CalmCalm
1 day ago--------E8
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2 days agoNE3N3N3CalmCalmNE5NE7NE5NE6NE10
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G14
E6NE6--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.