Friday, April27, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:43PM Friday April 27, 2018 12:26 AM EDT (04:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 4:49AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1052 Pm Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Overnight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Numerous showers, possibly mixed with snow after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201804271100;;087676 FZUS53 KAPX 270252 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1052 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-271100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 270400
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1200 am edt Fri apr 27 2018

Update
Issued at 941 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018
updated the forecast earlier to narrow down the timing of
precipitation expected tonight into Friday morning. The upstream
cold front will make it into NRN michigan late tonight, with it's
parent shortwave trough sharpening up becoming less positively
tilted. This will increase the dpva on the front, and regardless
of not a whole lot of other forcing seen, precipitation along and
behind the front is expected to fill in, but remain rather narrow.

Could see light rain possibly mixing with a little insignificant
light snow before ending. No big changes on this being a rather
light QPF event, with no issues for travel Friday morning commute.

The more detailed timing of the precipitation can always be seen
in the hourly weather graph after getting the point and click
forecast from our webpage.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 255 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018

Increasing chances of light mixed precipitation later tonight...

high impact weather potential... Minor... Light mix of rain and snow
late tonight with little impact to travel expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure remains centered over
michigan this afternoon... Providing mainly sunny skies and no precip
attm. A look upstream shows the approaching cold front to our nw
stretching from the arrowhead of minnesota into the central plains.

Narrow band of moisture along this front is producing a few
showers... With a general downward trend in areal coverage as it
pushes eastward into the strong high over michigan. High clouds are
steadily increasing from NW to SE across our CWA in advance of this
front... And expect clouds will continue to increase lower and
thicken as this front nears tonight.

Latest near term models show a general increase in areal coverage of
the resulting shower activity later tonight into Friday as a strong
upper low pivots SE behind the cold front... Providing enhanced lift
and support for precip production. Have increased pops... But still
expect this will be a relatively narrow time window of precip
chances and a rather low QPF event. Thermal profile suggests any
rain that develops will become mixed with snow late tonight into
Friday. Again... Precip will be light and with overnight lows
generally holding above freezing... Expect little in the way of
impact to travel.

Precip resulting from the front will move out by around midday or
so... Only to be replace with additional chances of rain showers in
our SW CWA Friday afternoon as the closed upper low and surface
reflection begins to swing into the western great lakes region. High
temps Friday afternoon will range from the 40s in the NW half of our
cwa to the mid to upper 50s near saginaw bay.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 255 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018

Below normal temperatures with some snow to begin the weekend...

high impact weather potential: minimal, expect some rain snow mix
over portions of northern michigan Friday night and snow Saturday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: centered largely on
precipitation type and snowfall Friday night and Saturday as
vertical temperature profiles fall back below freezing.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Base of upper trough and weakly
organized sfc system, which moved into the great lakes Friday, will
slowly exit east of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, 500mb
heights slowly recover through Sunday as an upper ridge strengthens
over the midwest and WRN great lakes. Additionally, at the surface,
a large area of high pressure pushing across central canada and
northern plains on Friday, will move east and settle over the great
lakes Sunday.

Any precipitation lingering over northern michigan Friday night and
Saturday with this exiting system, will influence the region between
00z and 15z Saturday. After 15z Saturday model soundings show an
extremely dry airmass, associated with a large area of high
pressure, settling over northern michigan through Sunday. Model
soundings would suggest a fairly quick transition from rain Friday
evening trending to snow after 06z sat, as 850mb temps fall from -4c
Friday night to -6c Saturday and freezing levels drop to under
200ft. 850mb temps slowly warm to between 0c and +2c Sunday
afternoon, as surface and upper level ridging build into the wrn
lakes.

Overall will increase pops over the entire CWA Friday night and
Saturday morning, as model soundings show sufficient moisture
through 500mb and 850 500mb and 500 300mb qvectors show significant
forcing in advance of deep 500mb trough pushing over northern
michigan. Some lake enhancements are also briefly possible Saturday
morning along the lake michgian shoreline. Though lake influences
should be limited to lake clouds and light snow showers due to
marginal over lake instability (850mb temps around -7c), inversion
heights under 4k ft, while 925-850mb winds try to settle in from the
north.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 255 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018

Above normal temperatures next week with occasional rain...

warm and moist air will get directed into mi and the great lakes
through the extended period as high pressure remains to our
southeast. Meanwhile, low pressure moves out of the northern plains
and into the great lakes late Monday spreading showers into the
region. A frontal system will then get hung up across the great
lakes bringing a continued chance of showers and maybe even a few
thunderstorms through much of next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1153 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018

Some MVFR CIGS possible later tonight into Friday morning...

mid and high clouds continue to stream in over NRN michigan,
associated with a cold front aligned from wisconsin to green bay
and eastern upper michigan. The parent shortwave aloft has indeed
been allowing for an expansion of showers in a narrow corridor
behind the front, which are still expected to pass through the
airports later tonight into Friday morning (with the possibility
of some light snow mixing in). A secondary shortwave drops into
mainly tvc mbl tomorrow afternoon and evening for the possibility
of some more light rain showers, again possibly mixing with a
little light snow Friday night. However, the trend is for lower
chances of seeing anything at all, certainly anything too
measurable.

Light winds will quickly turn NW behind the front over the next
handful of hours, and remain N NW and relatively light through
the TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 255 pm edt Thu apr 26 2018
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru much of
Friday night..Before winds increase to SCA criteria very late Friday
night into Saturday as winds strength behind the departing low.

Chances of mixed precip will increase tonight into Friday morning as
a cold front slides thru the region. Additional chances of mixed
precip will develop Friday afternoon into Saturday as the upper low
and surface reflection sweep thru the western great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Mr
short term... Sr
long term... Kf
aviation... Smd
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi39 min W 6 G 11 41°F 1008.4 hPa
WSLM4 30 mi87 min WNW 6 40°F 36°F1009.7 hPa (+0.2)33°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi47 min NNW 8 G 11 39°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi32 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F32°F70%1009.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI15 mi33 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F34°F79%1009.8 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F33°F72%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W4W4SW6SW5SW6SW5SW4W9
G15
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1 day agoNW4W4CalmNW3CalmCalmNW6N4N3N5N6NE8N9N6NW4N3W7
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2 days agoE6NE5NE5NE5NE6NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3SW5SW4SW5SW6SW4NW4NE6NE3N3CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.