Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:29PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1041 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201709252245;;912221 FZUS53 KAPX 251441 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1041 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-252245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251451
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1051 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Update
Issued at 1042 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
forecast is on track for the most part. More record or near record
heat expected today with highs of well into the 80s to around 90.

Looking at model soundings there isn't any evidence of a cap which
is a little worrisome. However... There may not be a trigger to
spark convection due to the hot temperatures either. Am a little
concerned about ACCAS to the northwest and southeast (an indicator
of mid level instability). The weakest surface pressure gradient
is across southeast zones so maybe a lake breeze off of lake huron
could be the trigger for a storm or two to form this afternoon.

Therefore... Have added in a slight chance down there. Will be
monitoring surrounding radars and satellite imagery as the apx
radar is down for an equipment upgrade for much of this week.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 249 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Record-setting warmth continues today...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong high pressure and dry air remain
over much of the northeastern quadrant of the us early this
morning... With the pronounced upper level ridge axis aligned within
this same area. Extended period of unseasonably warm temps and dry
conditions continue across this entire region. Closest convection
remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent inverted
trough extending from texas thru the central plains to near the
arrowhead of minnesota. Temps and dwpts have cooled into the upper
50s and lower 60s across much of our cwa... Resulting in the
development of some patchy fog early this morning.

For today and tonight... Strong subsidence... Dry air thru the column
and a rather strong mid level cap will continue to keep any chances
of precip at bay. Latest SPC day 1 convective outlook agrees with
this... Keeping general thunder west of our CWA along and ahead of
the inverted trough.

Expect yet another hot lake september day... .With several locations
again matching or breaking MAX temp records today. Afternoon highs
will range from the mid 80s in eastern upper michigan to the upper
80s around 90 across northern lower michigan. Overnight lows will
cool to a few degrees either side of 60.

Record (year)
glr 76 (1958)
tvc 89 (1908)
apn 85 (1935)
anj 83 (1908)
htl 91 (1920)
pln 80 (2007)

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 249 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Warm Tuesday before cooling down midweek...

high impact weather potential: slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday night.

Pattern forecast: persistent upper level ridging across the eastern
two thirds of the CONUS gradually begins to break down Monday night
into Tuesday, which will allow for energy associated with western
troughing to lift through the upper mississippi valley into ontario.

Disorganized surface low pressure will ride northeastward along an
attendant cold front expected to sweep across the region Tuesday
night into early Wednesday, bringing substantial height falls into
the great lakes by for the middle and end of the week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: potentially record breaking
temperatures continue at a few locations Tuesday, followed by a
chance for a bit of much needed rainfall for some locations late
Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Warm temperatures continue Tuesday in what is expected to be the
sixth consecutive day of potentially record breaking highs. It's
unlikely that all six climate stations once again break a record,
but certainly a couple records could fall as highs top out from 75-
80 across eastern upper and from the mid-upper 80s south of the
bridge.

Tuesday current records:
anj: 84(1908)
glr: 80(1999)
htl: 89(1920)
tvc: 88(1908)
apn: 88(1920)
pln: 83(1973)
an increasing scattered shower threat arrives Tuesday evening
through early Wednesday as an approaching cold front is set to slide
across northern michigan; however, latest trends continue to look
unfavorable for much of northern michigan to see appreciable
rainfall due to a thinning deep layer moisture axis ahead of the
front (despite rather high pwats) and the greatest forcing
pinwheeling northeastward into ontario. Eastern upper and the tip of
the mitt continue to look to have the better chance, though precip
coverage is still expected to be scattered in nature. Wouldn't rule
out a couple rumbles of thunder Tuesday night, but given the
nocturnal passage of the front, limited instability should preclude
widespread thunder. Any lingering showers early Wednesday quickly
diminish with thinning clouds giving way to partly sunny skies. Much
cooler temperatures, although still near normal, are expected to
prevail as high temperatures top out 20-30 degrees cooler than was
seen this past weekend.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 249 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Significantly cooler temperatures will headline the extended forecast
period as high temperatures fall to below normal readings Thursday
through Saturday. A reinforcing shot of cool air aloft should result
in the coolest days being Friday and Saturday with high temps
struggling to reach the upper 50s to low 60s degrees. The
combination of mid level perturbations passing through the northern
tier of the CONUS and lake processes beginning to ramp up late this
week, the possibility of showery periods re-enters the forecast at
various times late Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
aside from some patchy early morning fog ifr conditions...VFR
conditions will remain the rule for all northern lower michigan
taf sites thru tonight. Light variable winds will lend to some
lake breeze development again today.

Marine
Issued at 249 am edt Mon sep 25 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Tuesday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Monday night. Chances of precip will increase Tuesday and Tuesday
night as a cold front sweeps thru michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 5 mi21 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 69°F1017.5 hPa65°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi41 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 1015.6 hPa56°F
45175 30 mi11 min NW 7.8 G 12 74°F 67°F1 ft1017 hPa (+0.0)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi31 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 84°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair82°F58°F44%1016.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI15 mi17 minWSW 710.00 miFair87°F60°F40%1016.3 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi16 minS 510.00 miFair83°F59°F46%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmSW4SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmSW3W4W3SW5CalmSW3
1 day agoW5W6W8S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4
2 days agoSW4W5SW5W3NW16
G26
SW3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3W3W4W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.