Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:14PM Friday July 28, 2017 1:01 PM EDT (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1009 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201707282215;;961048 FZUS53 KAPX 281409 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-282215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 281643
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1243 pm edt Fri jul 28 2017

Update
Issued at 939 am edt Fri jul 28 2017
only real concern would be winds on the lake huron side where
gusts should reach 25kts at times this afternoon and SCA in
effect. Those winds should dissipate this evening. High pressure
centered over lake superior SE ontario moving in slowly. Wv
imagery showing mid level circulation overhead with -15c cold pool
intact. 12z kapx sounding showing some moisture around 6kft but
dry otherwise. That moisture is being lifted ahead of the
shortwave with sct-bkn clouds showing up in obs. As the
shortwave cold pool move east and sfc high moves slowly south,
expect clouds to dissipate.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 259 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Quiet and seasonable...

high impact weather potential... None.

1019mb high pressure is centered over lake superior. The high will
be quasi-stationary for most of the near-term period, eventually
dipping down to the wi upper mi border late tonight. Aloft, a
closed-off shortwave is over central upper mi, and will dig across
northern mi this morning. This is a potent wave, but is quite
moisture-starved. Some mid clouds and even weak showers are seen
back in central wi, but this activity is moving to the SE or
even sse, and will plainly miss us. Over our heads, just some
cirrus and high altocu.

If the timing of this shortwave were a little different, we could
almost have an interesting afternoon. Diurnal convection will
certainly sprout over the southern lakes this afternoon, ahead of
the wave. But we will see considerable height rises at 500mb this
afternoon, and corresponding warming subsidence aloft. That will
suppress any chance for deep convection here. Mid high clouds
will occur this morning, especially in northern lower mi, but
that will decrease this afternoon. Some CU will replace it for
part of this afternoon, especially south of m-72. Surface and
500mb ridging will contribute to largely clear skies tonight. A
touch of shallow ground fog possible tonight in some of the
boggier, fog- prone locales in northern mi. But too much mixing
today for that to be a major concern.

Will slightly broaden the diurnal temp range compared to guidance.

Max temps lower 70s (ne lower mi coast, with an onshore NE wind), to
around 80f (tvc area). Min temps near 50f interior to mid 50s coasts.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 259 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Lots of sunshine...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: broad ridging aloft encompassing the western two-
thirds of the CONUS is expected to dominate the short term forecast
period. When combined with an expansive area of surface high
pressure across the great lakes midwest, little in the way of
sensible weather is expected through the upcoming weekend. However,
by late Saturday night-Sunday, a subtle shortwave and associated
weak frontal boundary are progged to be dropping southeastward out
of the northern plains into the upper mississippi valley before
crossing northern michigan on Monday, but with little fanfare as it
does so.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: little in the way of
concern impact through the upcoming weekend. Only challenge revolves
around temperatures and any diurnally driven cumulus.

Details: not a whole lot of sensible weather to talk about for the
upcoming weekend as high pressure and strong subsidence across the
region provide mostly sunny skies and near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Light wind fields should allow for lake breezes to
develop both days, and perhaps some inland fair weather CU above a
well-mixed boundary layer.

High temperatures Saturday ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s
warm a couple of degrees for Sunday with the majority of northern
lower topping out in the low-mid 80s (just a touch cooler north of
the bridge). Dropped Saturday night low temps just a couple of
degrees below guidance across the typically cooler interior spots of
northern lower as clear skies and light winds should promote decent
radiational cooling.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 259 am edt Fri jul 28 2017
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

The main focus through the extended revolves around the Monday and
Tuesday night-Wednesday timeframe. Guidance continues to hint at a
very subtle mid-level shortwave and associated weak frontal boundary
approaching the forecast area of Monday, but with even less fanfare
than was depicted 24-36 hours ago. Thus, the latest trends continue
to suggest limited forcing and anemic moisture will combine to yield
a dry Monday for most. Can't completely rule out a pop-up afternoon
shower, but any activity should certainly be few and far between.

After generally quiet daylight hours on Tuesday, the threat for
showers and a few thunderstorms returns late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Despite more robust support sliding into the region from
the west, there remains uncertainty with just how much appreciable
rainfall we'll be able to muster. At this juncture, scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder moving northwest to southeast
across the CWA looks like a good bet.

High temperatures continue to top out within a few degrees on either
side of normal... Ranging from the mid-upper 70s to mid 80s area-
wide.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1243 pm edt Fri jul 28 2017
expect mainlyVFR conditions through the forecast period. Sct-bkn cu
developing in slight instability this afternoon mostly above
3kft and mostly inland. Near the coasts and airports skies should
be mainly clear. Gusty winds will continue on the lake huron side
of the area through early evening.VFR conditions expected
overnight and Saturday, although some valley fog may form before
daybreak.

Marine
Issued at 259 am edt Fri jul 28 2017
high pressure over superior will support NE winds today. These
will be on the breezy side on huron, and will approach advisory-
level conditions in some areas (especially near oscoda tawas).

Will take a harder look at this later this morning. The high will
sag south into wi late tonight into Saturday, and NE to N winds
will slacken.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Kf
near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Kf
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 5 mi21 min E 12 G 14 68°F 68°F2 ft1020 hPa59°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi43 min ESE 15 G 18 65°F 1019.2 hPa49°F
45175 30 mi21 min ESE 12 G 16 66°F 66°F2 ft1020 hPa
WSLM4 30 mi61 min E 22 65°F 64°F1019.6 hPa (+0.6)54°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi81 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi66 minENE 12 G 1610.00 miFair72°F54°F54%1019 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI15 mi67 minE 1110.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1019.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi67 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F57°F60%1020 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE10NW7NW8N6NW5NW6N7N5E3N4CalmCalmN4CalmNE3E5NE5NE6E9E12
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1 day agoW7SW6S3NW5W3W4W3W3CalmCalmW6W6NW4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNE6NE6NE6
2 days agoSW4W6W7W7SW7SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW5SW6S5S6W4SW8SW9
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.