Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor Springs, MI

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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:21PM Sunday July 22, 2018 3:03 AM EDT (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1004 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Periods of showers after midnight, then scattered showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201807221015;;851749 FZUS53 KAPX 220204 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-221015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Springs, MI
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location: 45.42, -84.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220606
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
206 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Still some lingering wet weather...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: vertically stacked, cut-off low pressure
continues to slowly pinwheel across the ohio valley at this early
hour. Waves rotating back west on northern periphery of parent
system continue to interact with overhead deep moisture (00z local
sounding with a rather robust 1.65" precipitable water measurement),
producing bands of light to moderate showers. Most prominent source
of lift now rotating off to our southwest, taking best shower
coverage along with it. Just a bit of drying noted in the h8-h7
layer now starting to rotate in from the east, as evident by flow
within that layer backing a bit more northeast and by a decrease in
shower coverage and organization across northeast lower michigan and
lake huron.

Kinda an interesting forecast heading through today and tonight as
while primary low continues to slowly pivot south with time, strong
vort and additional upper level jet energy currently rotating north
across the mid-atlantic states will attempt to sling-shot back west
into the eastern lakes tonight. This will allow overhead troughing
to linger a bit longer than earlier anticipated, and when combined
with some lingering moisture, may be enough to kick off some
additional light shower activity for at least parts of the area
right through tonight (and perhaps even Monday).

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing that additional
mostly light shower potential, along with temperature and cloud
trends.

Details: initial best shower potential looks to exit quickly early
this morning as vort MAX and surge of deepest moisture pivot off to
our southwest. Per upstream radar trends and expected non-existent
instability, would expect an extended period of mostly dry weather
to develop this morning into at least the beginning stages of this
afternoon. There may be a few lingering light showers rotating
overhead, but these definitely look to be few and far between, with
most areas and most of the time likely remaining dry, albeit mostly
cloudy. That mid-atlantic moisture attempts to push back west into
the area later this afternoon into the overnight. Now, that moisture
plume will be thinning with time, and the accompanying low mid level
dynamics are nothing too impressive. Still gotta believe more light
showers will back west with time, at least bringing the threat for a
bit more wet weather to much of our area by this evening and the
early overnight. Best shower coverage looks to focus across
northeast lower michigan later this afternoon and early evening, but
even there, additional rain amounts look to remain light. Clouds in
no hurry to exit, with mainly cloudy skies expected right through
tonight, with perhaps a few more breaks in the overcast across
eastern upper michigan. Temperatures today look similar to those
experienced yesterday, with highs mostly ranging through the 70s.

Coolest readings will be found across northeast lower michigan where
northeast winds will bring in some lake huron modification. Those
same winds favor some downslope across eastern upper and northwest
lower michigan, where the warmest temperatures will reside. Lows
tonight ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Slowly drying out through early this week..

High impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: this weekend's well advertised stacked low
pressure system slowly meandering from the great lakes into the ohio
valley is now expected to pose forecast issues right into the start
of next week. Guidance over the past 24 hours is now hinting at
developing ridging over the western atlantic allowing little in the
way of eastward progression with cutoff upper level low pressure
spinning in the vicinity through at least Monday. Weak high pressure
is still expected to arrive Tuesday behind a weak mid level
perturbation ejecting from southern canada.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: any lingering pops Monday.

While not high impact, nuisance showers may continue right into the
day Monday as lobes of deep moisture and forcing pinwheel around the
aforementioned upper level low expected to be stretched from the
southeastern states right up through northern michigan. Pops
certainly won't be very high throughout the day Monday and it's
unlikely that everywhere will continue the occasionally wet weather,
but none the less, there may be some showers to contend with around
parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, will trim high temperatures
back into the mid-upper 70s as mostly cloudy skies will likely limit
the amount of daytime heating.

Early Tuesday morning, a weak northern stream shortwave is expected
to be trekking west to east across the northern great lakes. An
attendant frontal boundary may be enough to squeeze out an isolated
shower (mainly across eastern upper), but otherwise little in the
way of sensible weather is anticipated as weak high pressure presses
into the region from the west. Partly sunny skies will allow
temperatures to climb several degrees above Monday's highs... Ranging
from near 80 degrees at the lake shores to the mid 80s inland.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Primary focus through the extended forecast period revolves around
the Wednesday night through Friday timeframe as a well-defined wave
and associated strengthening surface low are expected to trek from
southern saskatchewan into southern quebec by the end of the week.

This system will have the potential to bring occasionally unsettled
weather to northern michigan with the highest chances for
precipitation arriving on Thursday in association with the system's
cold front crossing the forecast area. However, pockets of wrap
around moisture lingering into the end of the week may continue
on off shower chances Friday into Friday night.

Above normal temperatures Wednesday will be followed by a cooling
trend to wrap up the week with the coolest day on Friday as current
trends suggest high temperatures struggling to reach much past the
low 70s for most.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1156 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
low pressure is near day, and will move slowly SE toward the ohio
valley. This system is continuing to send showers and a few
rumbles of thunder into northern mi, though precip coverage will
decrease beginning very late tonight. Another resurgence of
showers into NE lower mi expected Sunday afternoon evening. A mix
of MVFR toVFR CIGS is expected, though brief intrusions of ifr
cigs are possible.

Ne to N winds up to 12kt.

Marine
Issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
winds will continue to slowly back, becoming northeast to northerly
today and tonight as weak ohio valley surface low pressure gradually
drops further south. Pressure gradient between this system and high
pressure well off to our north remains rather weak, resulting in
what should be sub-advisory wind gusts. Will need to closely monitor
the nearshore waters of northeast lower michigan where longer fetch
may tip the scales to some low end advisory small craft conditions
this afternoon. Conditions favor light winds across all the big
waters Monday through at least the middle portions of this week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... mb
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 5 mi24 min ENE 9.7 G 14 67°F 69°F1 ft1014.9 hPa67°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 28 mi34 min NE 7 G 8 68°F 1013.1 hPa68°F
45175 30 mi14 min NE 9.7 G 12 68°F 68°F1 ft1014 hPa
WSLM4 30 mi34 min E 13 68°F 68°F1014.3 hPa67°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi24 min ENE 15 G 16 67°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI4 mi69 minENE 94.00 miRain67°F66°F96%1013.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI15 mi70 minNE 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F66°F93%1013.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI17 mi69 minENE 410.00 miOvercast68°F68°F100%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E8E7NE5NE5NE7NE7NE9E9
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NE10NE9NE8NE6NE6NE8NE7NE7NE7NE3
1 day agoE5E4NE6NE8NE8E5E6E10E10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4S4SW5W4SW6W5SW4SW5NE7NE6NE4NE3E6E4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.