Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millersburg, MI

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 9:36PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 12:50PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ347 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Light Mi Including Bois Blanc Island- 347 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ347 Expires:201906260400;;067397 FZUS53 KAPX 251947 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 347 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ347-260400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersburg, MI
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location: 45.43, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 252312
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
712 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this evening...

high impact weather potential: marginal risk for isolated severe
thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon and evening
hours.

Pattern synopsis forecast: a slow moving area of low pressure and
associated moisture continues it's slow trek through the upper great
lakes region. Continued return flow and instability will produce
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast
area. Forecast soundings continue to have pwat values just above an
inch. Instability will be greatest... With the highest threat of
thunder being during the late afternoon hours into the evening hours
as forecast soundings show skinny CAPE with MLCAPE between 500-1000
j kg and very low values of CIN as well as a modified 12z apx
sounding. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 50s as diurnal
mixing maximizes. With 0-6km bulk shear values progged to be around
25-35kts... There are some some 45 kt winds in westerly flow aloft.

These winds could become severe if they reach the surface in any
storms that may develop. Dcape values in forecast soundings are
between 500-1000 j kg. Biggest threat in any severe storms that form
will be damaging winds, although hail will also be possible, but to
a lesser extent. High resolution models are showing about 1 - 1.50"
qpf over eastern upper where the deepest moisture and best synoptic
forcing will be. Aforementioned low pressure begins to fill tonight
and continue moving northeastward as surface high pressure and drier
air finally moves in behind the departing system. This will produce
partly cloudy skies and precipitation free weather by the early
morning hours of Wednesday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to
near 60.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible Thursday and
Friday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Broad upper level ridging will remain in
place across much of the eastern us thru the end of the work week.

Meanwhile... A persistent upper level low will sit and spin over
james bay. The great lakes region will remain situated between these
two systems... Keeping us in a relatively warm... Humid and rather
active wx pattern thru Friday. Much of our CWA will see a temporary
break in the convective action on Wednesday with deep ridging and
dry air in place.

The first of several waves of energy and associated moisture will
begin to impact our area by Thursday as the broad ridge overhead is
flattened by the james bay low pushing a bit further south toward
the great lakes region. Will certainly keep chances of showers and
storms in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. As mentioned...

overall conditions will remain warm and humid for middle thru late
work week. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s... With overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Long term Friday night thru Tuesday
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms chances continue into
Saturday.

A weak front will slide thru the great lakes on Saturday... Extending
chances of showers and storms into the first part of the weekend.

High pressure and drier air will build into the region in the wake
of this front... Which should give us at least one day of dry wx on
Sunday before renew chances of precip develops for the first part of
next work week. Temps will change very little behind this front
despite a brief period of drier air on Sunday. Afternoon highs will
continue to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s... With overnight
lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening as a weak
weather disturbance slides across northern lower michigan. Mainly
vfr CIGS vsbys through Wednesday although low confidence
possibility of localized MVFR CIGS around any thunderstorms this
evening. Gusty west southwest winds aloft through the first half
of tonight and with surface winds gradually diminishing, may see a
few hour period of llws. Quiet weather withVFR conditions on
Wednesday with some scattered cumulus during the afternoon hours.

Marine
Issued at 340 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
gusty southwest winds will continue through the evening hours as low
pressure continues to deepen as it pushes north across ontario.

Strongest winds expected to target lake michigan, where widespread
small craft advisory conditions are likely. West to southwest winds
continue Wednesday, once again become a bit gusty, although it
appears both winds and waves will remain below advisory levels. Will
need to watch for some gusty wind producing thunderstorms later this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front works its way across the
region. Not expecting any widespread activity, but there is a
possibility a few of these thunderstorms could become severe.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz345-346.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz323-341-
342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lsz322.

Near term... Tl
short term... Mr
long term... Mr
aviation... Jk
marine... Tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 24 mi69 min SSW 23 72°F 56°F55°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 40 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 8 69°F 55°F1005.2 hPa58°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 41 mi51 min SSW 14 G 19 73°F 53°F1005.9 hPa
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 44 mi29 min WSW 14 G 16 74°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 44 mi51 min WSW 7 G 13 75°F 54°F1007.9 hPa58°F
45175 45 mi30 min W 18 G 19 67°F 57°F2 ft1006 hPa58°F

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI15 mi74 minSW 910.00 miFair75°F56°F52%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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--SW12
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1 day agoSE9S7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE5SE6SE5SE5SE7SE8
G14
SE6SE8SE6SE7SE5S6SE3CalmCalmSE5W8SW7
2 days agoSW3SE4S6CalmS3SW3CalmS4S5S3S4SE4S5SE5E9E9
G16
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G15
E8E9E6SE6SE9SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.