Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

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Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 9:35PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 1000 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Scattered showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots until early evening...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ361 Expires:201906192000;;732662 FZUS63 KDTX 191400 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak front across central Lake Huron and Lower Michigan settles slowly southward today reaching the west end of Lake Erie by evening. The next low pressure system moves along this front through Indiana and Ohio averaging 29.50 inches tonight and Thursday. These weather features bring a pattern of showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly from Saginaw Bay southward and from today through Thursday. High pressure waiting across northern Ontario builds southward across the central Great Lakes by Friday and holds into Saturday while a larger low pressure system develops across the Plains and moves eastward during the weekend. LHZ361-362-192000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191459
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1059 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1039 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
a stationary boundary is just off to our south with a band of
mainly light rain showers moving up along the front. A few of
these showers are impacted far southern eastern zones of the
forecast area. Expect this to continue over the next few hours. In
addition, weak instability lake breeze convergence driven showers
could develop father north across the parts of the remainder of
the area this afternoon. Am not too excited about this possibility
really since drier air will be filtering in from the north. We
shall see if anything happens. Lots of clouds will hold down
temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s (have trimmed down
highs just slightly).

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
impactful weather: more showers today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level low pressure remained centered in quebec early this
morning, with troughing extending back westward through central
canada. Westerly flow aloft was seen in NRN michigan, on the SRN end
of this troughing, with one weak shortwave pressing into the western
great lakes, and an associated weak low pressure and a cold front
overhead. Moisture advection and dpva has been less than expected,
with all other forcing mechanisms being weak. This has resulted in
just a sparse amount of showers in and around NRN michigan, but
shallow, cooler and moist low level air, has led to some stratus
development across eastern upper and much of NW lower michigan.

Further RUC and satellite analysis reveals additional shortwave
energy being ejected into the dakotas down through the SRN plains,
with more associated showers and thunderstorms.

The weak low pressure and cold front will cross the region through
daybreak, with a continued chance for isolated showers popping off,
mainly over NRN lower michigan. The better chance for showers (and
honestly, just a long shot for a thunderstorm due to poor lapse
rates and overall weak instabilty), will be later today, for again,
nrn lower michigan. The NRN and SRN stream shortwave energy will
continue to get ejected into the region, while weak low level flow
results in minor advection changes to the moisture thermal profiles
of the atmosphere, as well as induces expected afternoon lake
breezes. This is going to result in additional scattered showers,
focused more so, in the inland lake breeze convergence zones. Much
of this convection will fade with nightfall, but the continued
shortwave energy will keep the chance for showers going into the
evening.

Highs today will generally be in the lower 70s with lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
synopsis: weak troughing exists over the center of the conus, with
mild ridging along either coast. Currently a 100kt jet exists over
the great lakes and extends off the new england coast. A subtle
shortwave currently over the northern rockies will dig into the weak
central troughing before making a turn toward the great lakes on
Thursday. The induced surface low will ride up through the ohio
valley through the day. Then ridging encroaches over us on Friday
into the weekend. Late week will generally have temperatures near
normal, before we warm up to slightly above normal through the
weekend into early next week.

High impact weather potential: minimal, with isolated showers and
rumbles of thunder
details challenges: models have tried to come into better agreement
regarding Thursday's low pressure placement and strength. The gfs
was a slow outlier for multiple days, but in latest run has switched
to be even faster than the rest of guidance. Thus will opt for the
consistency of the remaining guidance, which places the low south
and east of lake erie by 12z Thursday. Deep layer moisture will be
pushing off to the east before mid-day, so will keep pops very low,
even near saginaw bay. Drier air works its way in from the west,
along with north-south orientated surface ridging. This will lead to
diminishing clouds through the day. Winds decrease overnight into
Friday morning as the pressure gradient becomes lax over us. Upper
level ridging builds in on Friday, and this pattern will dominate
our weather through much of the weekend. A ripple of energy over-
topping the shortwave ridging will bring rain chances back in Friday
afternoon. This precipitation could take shape as an MCS with decent
daytime heating, at least 40kts bulk shear, and supportive jet
streak dynamics over the area.

Thursday highs will be near to slightly below normal. Areas closer
to lake huron will be the coolest with our northeasterly flow. Then
Friday bumps up a couple degrees with more Sun across the area. The
only thing that could set Friday's highs back would be cloud
cover and any rain-cooled air from a possible mcs.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal... For now
the weekend sees surface ridging slowly sliding east, even as upper
level ridging holds over the area. We should see plenty of dry time,
but the threat of afternoon showers and storms (that may linger into
the nighttime hours) bares keeping the indecisive low pops as they
stand. Better thunder chances move back in Sunday with a surface low
sweeping up through the upper mississippi valley into southern
canada. This system drags a warm front across the area Sunday, and
if we can get any clearing in the brief warm sector we may realize
the large CAPE values the GFS is advertising. As of now, we'll have
good lapse rates, shear, and possibly favorable jet dynamics. If we
can keep the instability and low-level moisture there's a chance the
area will be at risk of some severe storms. Of course a lot can will
change between now and then, but it still bears watching. The same
system may drag a cold front through on Monday, keeping precip
chances going. Temperatures head into the weekend mainly in the mid
70s before warming a few more degrees (to near and maybe slightly
above normal readings) on Sunday, then drop back a tad early next
week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 643 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
a weak area of low pressure and a cold front is crossing the
region early this morning, and will result in a continued chance
for seeing light rain into this evening. Shallow and cool low
level air behind this front will also result in a period of
MVFR ifr CIGS this until mid-day. A loose pressure gradient will
result in general light winds with developing afternoon lake
breezes. Low level winds do increase just off the deck out of the
east tonight into Thursday, but llws is not anticipated.

Marine
Issued at 513 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
a weak area of low pressure and a cold front is crossing the
region early this morning, and will result in a continued chance
for seeing showers into this evening. This will also result in a
continued loose pressure gradient bringing no wind wave concerns.

Low level winds will increase out a touch of the east tonight into
Thursday, when low pressure crosses the ohio river valley. Still,
no advisory speeds expected. Relative high pressure then settles
back in Thursday night into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi98 min WNW 7 56°F 57°F54°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi38 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 58°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi50 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 59°F 51°F1009.3 hPa59°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi56 min Calm G 1 58°F 52°F1010.1 hPa51°F
45162 44 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 54°F 54°F
TBIM4 44 mi48 min SW 1 G 1.9 53°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi71 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F51°F73%1010.5 hPa

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Last 24hrN6N5N5N5E7NE6N3CalmCalmN4NW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N4
1 day agoN4NE3NE3NE5NE4NE5E5E3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3S4E4NE7
2 days agoNE6NE7NE6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.