Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday November 19, 2017 4:41 PM EST (21:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 335 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales early in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A chance of snow showers late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. A chance of snow showers and showers early in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots early in the evening becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 15 to 20 knots until early morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening. Showers until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet until early morning.
LHZ361 Expires:201711200915;;661392 FZUS63 KDTX 192035 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.20 inches, will continue to lift into the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon. High pressure, 30.30 inches, then builds across the Ohio Valley for the early part of the week. LHZ361-200915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 192025
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Lake effect snow showers through tonight...

high impact weather potential... Some heavier lake effect snow
showers will impact the snowbelts through tonight.

Pattern synopsis... Afternoon satellite analysis reveals larger
scale troughing from the northern plains through the great lakes
into new england... Anchored by closed upper level low pressure
over north-central canada. Several smaller scale short waves are
seen rotating through the main upper trough. Primary lead wave is
exiting eastbound through lake huron... But a secondary subtle wave
is dropping southeastward into the the far northwest great lakes
region.

At the surface... Low amplitude cyclonic flow lingers across the
western great lakes with lake aggregate troughing in the usual
location from eastern lake superior down into northern lake huron.

But surface high pressure is nosing into the region from the
west.

Finally... Weakening lake effect snow showers persist at this
hour across northern lower michigan... With a little beefier lake
snows sliding through chippewa county at this hour.

Primary forecast concerns... Disposition of ongoing winter weather
headlines.

With the departure of the primary lead short wave and intervention
of surface ridging drier air... Ongoing lake snow showers will
continue to diminish heading into the evening hours while low
level mean flow backs a bit more westerly. Heavier snow showers
may persist off lake superior into parts of chippewa county for a
bit longer... Given the longer fetch and colder temps aloft up
that way. Am concerned that we see another brief uptick in lake
effect snow showers later this evening into the overnight as
the secondary subtle short wave slips through the northern great
lakes. But given the rather disorganized nature of the lake
convection at this point and minor accumulations anticipated
overnight... Plan to cancel the advisory for northern lower
michigan. I may leave the advisory alone for chippewa county for
now... Since some of the heavier snow showers are just getting into
the more populated part of the county. Evening shift can cancel
early if need be.

Much improved conditions anticipated Monday as warmer air at the
surface and aloft surges back into the region. Any lingering lake
effect will end and we should see at least some sunshine
particularly across lower michigan.

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Another shot of cold air and lake effect...

the mild air won't be sticking around much longer as another cold
front is set to move through northern michigan Tuesday morning. So
after a mild night with mainly above freezing temperatures Monday
night, temperatures will likely fall during the day Tuesday. So
expect rain showers ahead of the front early Tuesday followed by a
quick round of lake effect snow later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Activity should come to an end Wednesday as upper level heights
rebound. It's still a little early to determine exact snowfall
accumulations for Tue tue night but the snow belts of eastern upper
and northwest lower could see between a couple and a few inches. Add
in the likely gusty northwest winds and headlines are possible in
some areas.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Continued changeable...

more of the same really with alternating shots of mild and cold air
continuing to make for very changeable weather. This is in response
to continued ridging in the west and disturbances moving through the
zonal to occasional troughiness in the east. Perhaps a few snow
showers on thanksgiving day as a short wave moves through the flow.

Warm advection from low pressure moving by to the north should bring
mainly liquid precipitation late Friday into early Saturday (though
it could start as snow or a mix of rain snow). Yet another shot of
cold air will likely bring more lake effect snow to round out next
weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 156 pm est Sun nov 19 2017
lake clouds and lake effect snow showers will continue to stream
off lake michigan this afternoon leading to occasional MVFR
conditions at pln tvc mbl. Apn will see some snow showers but
largely remainVFR. Improving conditions come heading into the
evening as some drier air high pressure tries to build into the
region. However... Another weak-ish short wave will slip through
the region tonight and may bring a brief uptick in lake snow
showers once again.

Strong drying warming take shape heading into Monday and will
bring a return toVFR conditions.

Marine
Issued at 325 pm est Sun nov 19 2017
gustier winds will linger into tonight with small craft advisories
needed on all nearshore waters. Winds waves will diminish for a
time later tonight and into Monday... And we may be able to have a
period of headline free conditions. However... Stronger SW winds
develop later Monday through Monday night... Veering westerly on
Tuesday... And marine headlines will be needed once again. At this
point... Appears gusts will remain below gale force within the
nearshore waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for miz008.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Monday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Monday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Monday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi42 min WNW 25 29°F 42°F16°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi22 min WNW 13 G 16 30°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi42 min NW 8 G 14 30°F 1009.4 hPa (+1.1)21°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi42 min NNW 6 G 9.9 26°F 1007.9 hPa (+0.0)22°F
TBIM4 44 mi52 min W 11 G 16 30°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last
24hr
N8
G14
N8
G14
N11
G14
N6
G12
N10
G15
N9
G17
N8
G12
N9
G15
N10
G18
N11
G22
N9
G19
N14
G18
NW11
G17
N12
G18
NW11
G15
N13
G18
N11
G17
N13
G18
NW13
G23
NW12
G17
NW10
G17
NW8
G17
NW10
G13
NW8
G14
1 day
ago
S15
G20
S15
S10
G15
S13
G16
S18
G22
S7
G10
S4
S8
S8
G11
S7
S5
G8
SW3
W1
N2
NW2
NW4
N4
G7
NW4
NW4
N4
N4
G8
NE7
NE7
G10
N5
G9
2 days
ago
N10
G13
N8
G14
NE6
G9
N3
G6
NE5
G8
N6
NE5
G10
N4
N3
G6
NE5
E2
E4
E3
SE3
G6
W3
SW4
G8
S9
G12
S11
G16
S12
G15
S14
G19
S13
G17
S14
G17
S13
G16
S19
G24

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi47 minW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast30°F16°F58%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrN13N14
G20
N15
G22
N16
G21
N14
G20
N15
G22
N15
G24
N15
G23
NW14
G27
N17
G23
NW13
G24
NW14
G21
NW14
G21
NW14
G22
NW14
G19
NW14
G22
NW12
G29
NW13
G22
NW15
G21
NW10
G20
NW9
G15
W10
G19
W7
G15
NW9
1 day agoSE12
G16
SE13
G19
S12
G20
S9
G16
SE5CalmSE5SE5CalmSE4SE3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN9N7NE6N7NE8N6N10
2 days agoNW9
G15
NW7NW8
G15
N10N6N5N3CalmCalmE5CalmSE3S6S6S5S3SE6SE9S8S8
G18
SE12
G18
S14S9
G14
SE12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.