Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rogers City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 9:36PM Friday June 22, 2018 10:42 PM EDT (02:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ361 Lake Huron From 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Lt Beyond 5 Nm Off Shore- 957 Pm Edt Fri Jun 22 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Showers likely until late afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then veering to the northeast after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west early in the evening...then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
LHZ361 Expires:201806230815;;961716 FZUS63 KDTX 230157 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 957 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Broad and weak low pressure, 29.60 inches, will slowly move northeast over western Lake Erie on Saturday. High pressure, 30.10 inches, will then build south across the Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday. LHZ361-230815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rogers City, MI
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location: 45.5, -83.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221947
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
347 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 345 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Showers arriving tonight for some areas...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A surface ridge extending across the
northern great lakes continues to be nudged farther north as a
cutoff low spinning over indiana slowly makes its way northeast. An
expansive cirrus deck, thick in some areas, has spread across
northern michigan this afternoon ahead of this low. E NE surface
flow has been pulling in dry air from the surface high downstream of
us. Afternoon mixing has led to a significant drop in rh in some
locations across interior northern lower to 25% or less.

Temperatures also managed to creep into the mid to upper 70s in many
areas, with wind gusts to 15-20 mph at times. This has led to some
mid to late afternoon fire weather concerns, but rh will quickly
recover early this evening as temperatures decline and as moisture
advection develops ahead of the slowly approaching cutoff low.

Pwats will steadily rise from southeast to northwest overnight,
likely in excess of 1.5" across much of the forecast area by
daybreak Saturday. Isentropic ascent and warm air advection will
strengthen a bit across our southeast overnight, with upper level
divergence and a few vort maxes also contributing to the lifting
cause... But overall forcing does not look all that impressive.

Still, given the significant jump in deep layer atmospheric moisture
(forecast soundings across northeast lower becoming nearly saturated
in the low-mid levels later tonight), think it will not be tough to
trigger some showers, especially east of i-75. Do not anticipate any
thunder given instability is very low across northern michigan. Only
some weak elevated instability may creep in near saginaw bay towards
daybreak with MUCAPE < 100 j kg. Hi-res guidance supports localized
rainfall perhaps in excess of a quarter inch across portions of
northeast lower, but generally most locations expected to pick up
less than a tenth of an inch. As the low pinwheels counterclockwise
towards toledo by late tonight, showers will spread from near
saginaw bay this evening to portions of northwest lower late
tonight, with the highest chances found over northeast lower. With
increasing clouds and moisture tonight, it will not be as cool as
last night with lows ranging from the low 50s north to upper 50s
south.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 345 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018

Seasonable weather continues...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: a more active weather pattern begins with
a low pressure system tracking through the southeastern great lakes
and then into quebec. Cloudy conditions and rain chances continue
through Saturday and into Sunday as said system marches
northeastward. The best forcing and deeper moisture will be
juxtaposed with the center of the nearly vertically stacked low.

This will bring the best chances of rain and higher QPF amounts to
northeast lower... Although storm totals appear to be less than a
tenth of an inch at this time by Sunday morning. A couple models are
hinting at a lobe of moisture and shortwave swinging through
northern lower on the backside of the departing system possibly
putting out more rain amounts than Saturday. Will increase chances
for precipitation Sunday. Precipitation chances will diminish Sunday
evening night as high pressure centered over hudson bay builds into
northern michigan along with much drier air and aforementioned low
pressure system departs to the northeast. This high pressure will
diminish cloud cover from north to south beginning Sunday night and
provide a mostly clear Monday afternoon. A fairly light wind regime
will remain throughout the forecast period.

Highs Saturday may only reach into the low to mid 60s, while Sunday
and Monday reach back into the 70s.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 345 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018
high impact potential: possible thunder
another low pressure system developing over the dakotas will bring
our next chances of rain Monday night through at least Wednesday as
it tracks through the northern great lakes. Thunder chances will be
best Tuesday night and Wednesday. Surface high pressure and upper
ridge then build over the great lakes ending precip chances and
moderating temperatures to near 90 by Thursday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 154 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018
a broken cirrus deck has lifted all the way north into eastern
upper, though still with some pockets of sunshine at times. As
additional moisture steadily streams northward ahead of the
approaching low to our south, we'll eventually see cloud cover
thicken tonight with ceilings gradually lowering from southeast to
northwest. Models are in good agreement for the possibility of
MVFR to perhaps ifr CIGS developing after 06z and lingering
through at least Saturday morning. Ceilings will likely be lowest
across northeast lower where rain chances will also be highest.

Light showers sprinkles are expected to pinwheel counterclockwise
from near saginaw bay this evening into northwest lower and
eastern upper before daybreak... Gradually diminishing after 12z
Saturday. Winds will generally remain light (<10 knots) out of the
east to northeast through the period.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Fri jun 22 2018
a low pressure system slowly lifts to near detroit Saturday
morning, then through the eastern great lakes and over into new
england Saturday night and Sunday. A general easterly wind turning
light north over this time. No advisory level speeds anticipated,
but could see some decent gustiness funneling through the straits
again today. Periodic light rain and sprinkles are expected
across primarily lake huron tonight into Saturday and possibly
again on Sunday as the low pressure system swings through srn
michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mk
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Mk
marine... Tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 27 mi43 min E 8 60°F 57°F43°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 35 mi43 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 59°F 1010.9 hPa (-0.8)45°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi43 min N 1 G 1 62°F 1010.4 hPa (-1.2)47°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 35 mi33 min E 1.9 G 2.9 59°F
TBIM4 44 mi53 min ENE 6 G 7 54°F
45162 44 mi43 min E 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 56°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI7 mi48 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze53°F48°F83%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5NE5NE5NE4NE5NE9E6E7E6E6E7E6E5CalmCalm
1 day agoW6N8NE4E6E6E5E6E6E8E10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N5NE4N5N4N5NW5N5W3W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.