Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:38PM Monday November 20, 2017 7:39 AM PST (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:10AMMoonset 6:39PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 704 Am Pst Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 4 pm pst this afternoon...
Today..NW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, except sw wind 15 to 25 kt south of garibaldi early. Wind easing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SW swell 17 ft at 9 seconds, subsiding to 12 ft at 9 seconds in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning.
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves E 4 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 8 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves S 8 ft at 7 seconds. SW swell 8 ft at 9 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds in the evening. Rain.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds. SW swell 11 ft at 10 seconds. Rain likely.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves S 6 ft at 7 seconds. SW swell 12 ft at 10 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. SW swell 10 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 11 ft.
PZZ200 704 Am Pst Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A strong front moving slowly south over the coastal waters will drop south of the area this morning. This front will stall near the south oregon coast today then lift back northward late tonight and Tuesday for another round of gale force wind.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 201044
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
245 am pst Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis Wet and unsettled weather this week. A cold front will
move southeast across the area today. The front returns tonight and
tue, lifting north as a warm front. A cold front will push into the
region off the pacific Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another cold
front will move through on thanksgiving, with showers lingering into
Friday. Another front is expected for the weekend.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... A fine line on klgx
radar, and buoys showed the cold front finally approaching the coast
early this morning, with coastal surface pres gradients beginning to
weaken. Expect the winds to diminish once the front moves onshore
during the early morning hours. Heaviest precipitation was out in
front of the front, where SW 850 mb winds from 50 to 60 kt were
coupled with precipitable water values of 1.1 to 1.2 inches. The
focus of the heaviest rains will shift south ahead of the front
today, with the front ultimately expected to drop down into sw
oregon. Surface observations in the south wa cascades were warming,
reflecting rising snow levels. Expect to be able to drop the winter
storm warning a little early there with the new forecast, as
precipitation turns over to rain over all but the highest

Models continue to show the upper level ridge quickly rebuilding
over the pacific NW tonight and tue, once the shortwave moving
across wa heads off to the east. This brings the old frontal
boundary over SW or back north tonight and tue, lifting the front
back up into wa. Good moist isentrpic lift is noted ini the lower
levels, seen along the 290k isentrope tonight, so will see
categorical pops spread back to the north overnight into early tue.

Deep moisture is noted with the air mass south the of the front and
feeding up over the front, with precipitable water values around 1.3
inches. The front moves up pretty quickly however, shifting the
focus for the heaviest rains back north into wa by tue. A mild and
very moist air mass however remains over the region into wed.

Dynamics however are rather weak, as a rather amorphous-looking old
baroclinic zone drifts in from the west. With the deep moisture,
will need keep a decent chance for pops going through wed, but not
enough confidence to keep categorical pops everywhere, so wlll back
off on pops a bit for Tue night and wed. South of the warm front tue
through wed, will see temps above normal with snow levels well above
pass levels.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday. No changes.

Previous discussion follows. Expect steady rain across the region
during any pre-holiday travel. For thanksgiving, a front crossing
the area will bring rain to southwest washington and northwest
oregon, but expect temperatures to be several degrees above seasonal
normals, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. Snow levels
look to remain well above the cascade passes. There might be a
slight break in precipitation at the start of next weekend, but it's
looking more unlikely as a new system enters into the area during
the weekend. Bishop tolleson &&

Aviation Cold front slowly working south along the wa coast.

Front is moving ashore on the south wa coast as of 2 am and will
continue to slowly drop south and east this morning. Ahead of
the front mainly MVFR CIGS with occasional ifr CIGS and vis at
the coast and north of ksle inland. Lower conditions will fill in
south of ksle as the front nears. Model soundings suggest better
mixing after 18z Mon for improvement to an MVFR toVFR mix.

Cascades and higher terrain become frequently obscured. A warm
front lifts from south to north tonight into Tue morning. Expect
MVFR or lower conditions with this system.

Kpdx and approaches... Moderate rain in the area but generally
MVFR, but may see ifr CIGS through 18z as the front moves
through. Low-level instability after 18z will help to improve
flight conditions to an MVFR toVFR mix. Mh weishaar

Marine Front is slow to drop south along the coast. It appears
to have made landfall near willapa bay as of 2 am. It appears to
be weakening as well although slowly. Will continue gale warning
through early morning. There should be a short period of small
craft advisory winds and seas later in the morning then ease
quickly as weak high pressure build over the waters. This quiet
period will be benign as the front returns as a warm front
tonight into tue. This system will probably bring gale force
winds, especially to the outer zones later tonight into tue.

A series of systems move south to north offshore Wed and may
bring S winds 20 to 30 kt at times through thu.

With the slower movement of the front, combined seas remain near
20 ft and remains 3 to 4 ft above spectral bulletin forecast. Seas
forecast to drop to near 10 ft or less later this afternoon. Seas
climb back well into the teens Tue and look to remain at that
level through thanksgiving. Mh weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale warning until 5 am pst early this morning for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 60

Gale warning until 7 am pst this morning for coastal waters
from cascade head or to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 9 am
pst this morning.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi51 min 50°F1002.2 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi51 min NW 13 G 25 50°F 50°F1000.4 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi39 min 52°F14 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi44 minSW 157.00 miLight Drizzle54°F51°F94%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE7S10S4S6S16
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmE3SE3SE4CalmSE4SE4SE3SE3CalmCalmE5CalmCalmCalmE5
2 days agoSW3SE3CalmSE5SE5SW7SW5S5SE6SE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmSE4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Mon -- 02:10 AM PST     6.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM PST     2.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM PST     7.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:18 PM PST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Mon -- 02:50 AM PST     5.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:21 AM PST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:46 PM PST     6.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:40 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:10 PM PST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.