Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:54PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 2:12 AM PDT (09:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm-waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 844 Pm Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..W to nw wind 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 13 seconds... Shifting to the sw at 18 seconds after midnight.
Tue..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds... Shifting to the sw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. SW swell 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 3 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 3 ft at 15 seconds...shifting to the W 5 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt...but 20 to 25 kt from cascade head southward. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 844 Pm Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres will remain over the coastal waters with low pres inland through early this week. A couple weak fronts will move through later this week then high pres and gusty northerlies return next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 300317
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
817 pm pdt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis A cooler weather pattern is in store for the rest of the
week, with periodic chances for showers as a large trough of low
pressure will remain over the NE pacific, and a series of
disturbances lift NE across the pacific nw. Expect a little higher
pops Tuesday, and then especially Wednesday night and Thursday
morning.

Short term Tonight through Thursday... Strong and relatively deep
onshore flow remains over the pacific northwest this evening, and the
clouds that cleared back to the coastal slopes of the coast range
will spread onshore or reform again tonight and Tuesday morning
inland into the west slopes of the cascades. Convection did develop
over our oregon cascade zones this afternoon and evening and a threat
will continue a few more hours. There is still some lightning to our
south in southwest oregon. The model soundings and the models suggest
that the threat of thunder will diminish overnight as this is not
like our typical elevated convection scenario in the main part of
summer following a hot day across the area, but nevertheless there
could be a few showers spreading out to the northwest over the
valleys and the coastal mountains overnight tonight into early
Tuesday. Will stay with that idea for now.

A broad low over the NE pacific will then push a decent short wave
across the forecast area mainly the second half of Tuesday. Believe
there is a better chance of showers at that point. Still, the main
low level front stays offshore and it is the upper level part of the
system that moves through. This disturbance will reinforce the
onshore flow, and pressure gradients through the gorge will be
stronger than those today. As a result, it will be quite windy
through the gorge and over the cascade ridges Tuesday afternoon and
evening. This will reduce the threat of any thunder Tuesday, though
there is a small chance down toward willamette pass and north of
mount adams Tuesday afternoon near the crest.

Forcing for any showers in our forecast area for Wednesday is
relatively weak. The next significant disturbance for our forecast
area is Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and have bumped pops
into the likely category for much of the area for that time period.

The models indicate that there may be a weak frontal boundary moving
through with that disturbance. Showers should start to ease late
Thursday and Thursday evening. Tolleson

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Thursday night through Monday... Models in general agreement on
swinging another shortwave through early Friday, as a longwave trough
remains offshore. Wave is weak, and moisture is mainly low level, so
will keep chances for showers with this feature limited to chance
category, and will show a decreasing pop trend in the afternoon.

Models remain in decent agreement showing shortwave ridging Fri night
and early Sat for a bit of a break in the chances for showers. The
next shortwave approaches Sat night and sun, but models begin to
diverge in timing and intensity of the wave. GFS digs a deeper trough
over the pacific NW sun, but this appears to be an anonymously deep
and cool trough compared to GEFS ensembles. Similarly, the ec
operational run appears to be weaker and faster than the ec ensemble
mean, so overall believe something in between the two operational
runs appears most likely. Will add in a slight chance for showers
over the northern part of the forecast area from late Sun through
early Mon for the passing trough.

Aviation Typical late may early june pattern this evening. Coast
is under ifr MVFR stratus while inland valleys are clear, and showers
and few thunderstorms rumble over the high cascades. Weak south to
southeast flow tonight may allow for a few showers to drift
northwestward away from the cascades, but any threat of thunderstorms
looks to remain over the crest and eastward.

Now, with not much change to the marine layer that lies west of the
cascades, will expect stratus to spread over most areas again
tonight, though think will be mostly MVFR inland. Can not rule out
occasional ifr with drizzle on the coast. Like Mon am, clouds will
take until midday to early afternoon to break apart over the
interior.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR under clear skies this evening. But, will
see increasing low MVFR stratus again late tonight between 08z and
11z. Like Mon am, will take until early Tue afternoon for stratus to
break out toVFR conditions.

Though 20% of a shower later tonight, will keep out of tafs. However,
will showers and evening thunderstorms will continue in eastern
approaches east of hood river until 07z. Rockey.

Marine Quiet conditions continue with winds below 20 kt through
Friday. Weak front moves through late Wednesday and another on
Friday, doing little more than shifting winds to southerly starting
Tuesday afternoon and keeping generally 5 to 15 kt southerly winds
through Friday. Seas through Wednesday morning stay around 3 to 4 ft,
building to 5 to 6 ft by Wednesday afternoon. Seas stay up around 5
to 6 ft through Friday.

Next chance for winds above 20 kt will be next weekend as a broad
upper-level ridge builds over the NE pacific and a thermal low sets
up over northern california, generating gusty northerly wind pattern
over our waters through next weekend. With gusty winds, may also get
steep seas next weekend. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi43 min 53°F1016.5 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 60°F1016.1 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi43 min 57°F2 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi38 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist52°F50°F94%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W5W6NW8W8W7W6NW3S3W4CalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW3SW7SW8SW5W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW3CalmCalmNW4W6NW9NW7NW7W5NW4NW6SW5W3W3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Tue -- 12:44 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM PDT     7.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:41 AM PDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:22 PM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.756.37.17.16.453.31.50-0.9-1-0.312.74.45.76.36.25.54.53.42.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:47 AM PDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 AM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:32 PM PDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM PDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:55 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.42.23.85.56.36.25.64.63.420.8-0.1-0.6-0.60.42.13.85.25.65.44.83.93

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.