Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:43 AM   Moonset 4:49 PM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 257 Am Pdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Active weather persists through into early in the week with disturbances moving through the waters with increassed winds and steep seas at times. Calmer more summer-like weather returns around the middle of next week accompanied by northerly winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 051813 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1113 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

Updated short term and aviation discussions.

SYNOPSIS
Broad low pressure continues to dominate the weather for much of the US West Coast, though precipitation has been dwindling west of the Cascades. Light to moderate snow continues in the Cascades above 4000 feet, largely due to increasing upslope flow as relatively higher pressure builds onshore from the Pacific. Onshore flow will briefly weaken, decreasing the snow in the Cascades this evening. However the next front will bring a resurgence of snow in the Cascades later tonight into Monday morning, with a brief shot of rain in the lowlands followed by scattered showers Monday afternoon.
Post-frontal showers will continue into Tuesday, then a significant warming and drying trend is expected later in the week as high pressure builds over the region.

SHORT TERM
Now through Tuesday...The front continues to shift inland with the main portion of precipitation falling over the Cascades north of the Willamette Natl Forest. Precipitation amounts have generally been around 0.15-0.25 inch over the last 6 hours, but there has been some fluctuation in regards to the terrain. Currently, freezing levels are around 4500 ft based on pilot reports which is consistent with the forecast. Will see minimal shift in these temperatures and thus snow levels will see very little change. One thing that has been a bit of a surprise are the winds at higher elevations. Along Mt Hood (7000 ft), winds have been exceeding gusts of 55 mph. While this has been fairly localized and at some of our highest elevations, still were higher than forecast.

While there is high confidence in the evolution of the larger scale features, confidence is lower in the smaller scale, subtler details. For example, while precipitation has generally been decreasing over western WA/OR, there has been an uptick in rain over this morning across much of Clark, Multnomah, and Clackamas Counties. This enhancement is largely due to deformation banding, which is notoriously difficult to forecast.
Most of the latest hi-res model runs do not even have this existing deformation band in their analyses or hour 1-3 forecasts. For elevations above 3500-4000 ft, this enhanced precip is manifesting as heavier snowfall rates in the Cascades between Santiam Pass and Mount Hood, and should last another few hours before diminishing. Meanwhile, KTTD-KDLS gradients have increased to +4.8 mb, suggesting increased orographic enhancement that will persist throughout the day today. So, while the lift from deformation decreases this morning, it will be replaced by the increasing orographic lift, which should keep light to moderate snow going in the Cascades through this afternoon. This orographic lift should briefly decrease this evening as an occluding cold front approaches the coast, so we will maintain the existing Winter Wx Advisories for the Oregon Cascades until 6 PM this evening for another 3-7 inches of snow.
For the lowlands, today looks to be a damp, dreary day with periods of rain and temperatures once again struggling to climb above 50 degrees.

The above-mentioned occluding cold front will move onshore tonight, pushed along by an unseasonably strong jet stream that is 120-140 kt at its core. This jet stream will also push the existing broad upper low eastward into the Rockies, yielding a more typical evolution of precipitation across the forecast area beginning with the occluding cold front late tonight/Monday morning. Expect a band of enhanced rain and Cascades snow to sweep across the CWA with the cold front late tonight/early Monday morning, followed by post-frontal showers through Tuesday. Lapse rates steepen behind the front Monday afternoon and may be sufficient for a thunderstorm or two. With low freezing levels for the season, any thunderstorms would be capable of producing small hail. Warming temperatures aloft should lead to shallower convection Tuesday, decreasing the chance of thunder and hail. By then, high pressure will be strengthening over the NE Pacific and building into the Pac NW, bringing an end to our period of unseasonably cool and damp weather. -Muessle/Weagle

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday...Longer range ensemble guidance depicts a much more straightforward forecast beginning midweek than in the short term. All clusters in the 00z WPC cluster analysis depict substantial positive 500 mb height anomalies across the Pac NW by Friday, with at least some degree of offshore flow.
This will bring dry and much warmer weather to the region by the end of the week. NBM deterministic guidance continues to show highs in the 60s Wednesday, 70s Thursday, and 80s Friday and Saturday. In fact, NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50/50 chance of the PDX metro area reaching 90 degrees Saturday, with a 10-30% chance of doing so elsewhere across the interior lowlands. If it seems early for us to be reaching 90 degrees in the interior lowlands, it is early but not unheard of to reach 90 deg F this time of year. In fact, PDX did so on 5 out of 6 days between May 12-17 last year.
Spring can be a time of large temperature swings and it appears the upcoming week will be no exception for the Pac NW. -Weagle



AVIATION
Our broad upper-level low has shifted further eastward this morning with moist westerly flow now presiding across the region. Conditions are currently a variable mix between IFR to VFR although most sites sit at MVFR CIGS/VIS. Expect this variability to continue through the day with drops in CIGS primarily associated with shower activity moving through the region. High resolution guidance indicates the possibly for a more pronounced break in shower activity late this afternoon into the evening for inland sites, roughly 23-05z, before another frontal system arrives bringing an increase in rainfall and higher probabilities (60-80%) for widespread MVFR CIGS. More stratiform rainfall then breaks to post-frontal showers Monday morning, but confidence in the exact timing of any categorical improvement back towards VFR is low. Wind generally stay breezy out of the south at 10-25 kts - highest coastal sites.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Currently MVFR with light rain but once this shower band passes conditions are expected to bounce back to low- end VFR. Will probably see a few more periods of MVFR again today as waves of showers pass overhead. HRRR is indicating MVFR probabilities increasing again after a small lull this evening. So will probably see MVFR prevailing overnight through about 14-16Z Sunday. MVFR probabilities decrease again and precipitation changes to a showery post-frontal regime afterward.
-Schuldt/MH

MARINE
The active weather pattern continues into early this week before a shift to generally calmer conditions and a more summer-like pattern. The next frontal system arrives today bringing another round of gusts up 30 kt as well as steep seas across most of the waters through Monday morning. Following this front high pressure over the northeast Pacific begins build over the waters and bring breezy west to northwest winds (gusting 20-25 kt) across the waters later Monday into Tuesday. Also expect the arrival of a pounced WNW 9-11 ft swell at near 12 seconds Monday night. The high pressure shifts closer to the waters later next week followed by a larger offshore component to the wind in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. -MH/Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for ORZ126>128.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.

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Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Tillamook
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Sun -- 04:42 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:28 AM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:10 PM PDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:23 PM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
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Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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