Wednesday, March22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:30PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 5:25 PM PDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:07AMMoonset 12:51PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 248 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 5 pm pdt this afternoon...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kt...backing to S after midnight. Gusts to 25 kt early. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 8 seconds...becoming sw 6 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 7 seconds. SEcondary swell W 4 ft at 13 seconds. Rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt...diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Combined seas 12 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. SW swell 9 ft at 9 seconds...subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Fri night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds. Showers.
Sat..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 8 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..S wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Sun..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Mon..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 12 ft.
PZZ200 248 Pm Pdt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A ridge of high pres over the waters this evening will shift inland late tonight. A frontal system approaches Thu...with a cold front moving across the waters Thu evening. A trough of high pres follows on Fri with high pres returning Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 222216
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
316 pm pdt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis Showers will decrease this evening as high pressure
briefly moves over the area for a dry period tonight through Thursday
morning. An approaching cold front will bring more rain by Thursday
evening, with showers persisting through Saturday morning. Some sun
is possible Saturday afternoon. Another front is expected on Sunday.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... Doppler radar continues to
show light to moderate showers streaming across the forecast area
this afternoon. These showers are being aided by a surface trough and
a weak disturbance embedded in the southwest flow aloft. Shower
activity is expected to decrease later this evening as the upper
level disturbance ejects towards the northeast and high pressure
briefly builds in overhead. Based on the current location of the dry
slot in water vapor satellite imagery expect showers to generally end
along the coast by 5 pm and in the interior a few hours later. The
exception will be the south washington cascades, which could see some
light snow showers continue overnight. Despite the low snow levels,
limited moisture will prevent significant accumulation above pass
level so impacts should remain minimal.

As high pressure builds into the region later this evening expect
clouds to begin to clear. This clearing may lead to the development
of patchy fog in the interior late tonight and early Thursday, but
this all depends on how much the boundary layer is able to decouple
tonight. Expect any fog that develops overnight to clear by Thursday
afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system.

Models remain rather persistent with stalling the front along the
coast Thursday morning. This will leave most locations away from the
coast with dry weather for most of Thursday under increasing clouds.

However, at the coast, expect rain by late Thursday morning. Rain
returns to the interior by Thursday evening as the front moves
onshore. Rain with this front could be heavy at times. Rainfall
amounts through Friday are around 1 to 1.5 inches along the coast and
in the coast range. The interior could see up to 0.75 inches. Snow
levels will generally remain above pass level, but the cascades could
see another 3 to 5 inches.

Rain looks to turn to showers by Friday afternoon as the front moves
further inland. Despite this, the upper level trough will help to
maintain showers into Saturday. Showers decrease Saturday afternoon
as high pressure briefly rebuilds into the region. This could bring a
few hours of nice weather with occasional Sun breaks on Saturday. /64

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... Lingering
showers Saturday night will come to an end by early Sunday as
shortwave ridging moves across the region in between systems.

However, the next round of moisture in the form of a pacific front
is not far behind and will likely spread another of round of steady
rain later Sunday. Confidence in the forecast for the first part of
next week is a bit lower, however, as forecast models do present a
rather large spread of solutions. While the generally progressive
pattern may continue, the GFS (and at least a handful of gefs
members) would favor a somewhat drier solution until around early
Wednesday. Continued to utilize a blend of models, resulting in at
least some mention of precipitation through the period, though. Snow
levels remain near or above the cascade passes through the long term
period. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain generally a few degrees
below seasonal normals for the first half of next week. Cullen

Aviation Expect a mix of MVFR andVFR conditions to continue into
the evening through 03z as showers continue. Showers will taper off
after 03z as air mass stabilizes, and expect generallyVFR
conditions as surface high pres moves across overnight. This is
likely to allow for a period of predominantlyVFR conditions between
03z and 09z tonight, although a few areas of MVFR CIGS cannot be
ruled out. After 09z with the moist air mass stabilized, expect MVFR
to low endVFR CIGS to redevelop and continue through about 16z thu
morning. GenerallyVFR conditions can be expected after 16z thu, but
with cloud bases descending in advance of a frontal system that is
expected to move inland Thu evening.

Kpdx and approaches... MainlyVFR conditions through 09z tonight,
although there is a chance of seeing a period with MVFR CIGS through
03z. After 09z CIGS are likely to redevelop again, either as MVFR
cigs, or more likely, as low endVFR cigs.VFR conditions likely to
prevail after 16z thu.

Marine Winds dipping down to the lower end of small craft
criteria Wed afternoon, and expected to continue to diminish through
the evening. Seas also coming down, generally under 10 ft, but with
a period primarily under 10 seconds. Will hang on to the small craft
advisory for winds a few more hours, but allow the advisory for seas
to continue a few hours longer into the evening as steep seas will
border on square seas.

An active weather pattern continues for the next few days. A cold
front crossing the waters late Thu is expected to bring southerly
gales Thu afternoon and evening, so will hang onto the gale watch
then. In response to the local winds, seas will rebuild Thu evening
into the teens before subsiding below 10 ft again fri. Another
system on Sun will bring solid small craft conditions, with a chance
of gusts bordering on gale force. Seas are likely to build back
above 10 ft by Sun night.

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 5 pm pdt this afternoon
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 9 pm pdt this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi37 min 50°F1018 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi37 min WSW 17 G 20 48°F 46°F1016.7 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi25 min 46°F9 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi30 minSW 410.00 miOvercast48°F41°F76%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3CalmSE5E3NE6SW3SE7SE9S7SE9S4S12
1 day agoNE13NE13
2 days agoNW6NE6CalmNE6SE3CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmSE5E5E10

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Wed -- 03:03 AM PDT     3.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:44 AM PDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:10 PM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM PDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Wed -- 04:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 AM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:25 AM PDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:02 PM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:29 PM PDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.