Friday, December15, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 4:31PM Friday December 15, 2017 3:44 PM PST (23:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 3:24PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 307 Pm Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers early.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the sw 1 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sat night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers likely.
Sun night..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers.
Mon..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 7 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft. Chance of rain.
Tue..W wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 14 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 14 ft.
PZZ200 307 Pm Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak cold front to move across the waters this morning followed by another weak front Sunday. A stronger cold front may move across the pac nw waters Tue.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 152302
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
300 pm pst Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis A front will push across the region this morning, with
rain spreading inland this morning. May see patchy freezing rain in
the the valleys where temperatures may not warm above freezing until
later in the morning, but not much if any ice accumulation is
expected. Active storm track carries main storms into southwest
canada, with occasional rain over washington and far NW oregon for
this weekend into early next week. Will see rather strong front
arrive next Tue and Wed with plenty of rain and mountain snow.

Afterward, it looks to be colder but dry to end next week.

Short term Tonight through Monday... As expected, temperatures
warmed across the area this morning as weak southerly low-level flow
developed ahead of the front. This morning's cold front continues to
advance east across the cascade foothills and cascades. A few
continued showers may continue through the rest of the day, but new
precipitation amounts out of these will remain rather minimal, if at
all. Models continue to indicate low to mid level temperatures will
moderate, so expecting just rain for all areas aside from higher
peaks of the cascades, which will see light snow. Once the front
pushes across the region, snow levels drop from 8000 feet this
morning down to around 2500 feet tonight. But with decreasing
coverage of showers tonight, only a few inches of snow can be
expected for the cascades tonight through early tomorrow.

Active storm track offshore will carry main energy into southwest
canada. But will see occasional moisture moving southward at times
across western washington and far northwest oregon. This will keep
some threat of rain generally north of a lincoln city to salem to
santiam pass line, with little if any moisture to the south. With
snow levels 2500 to 4000 feet, and QPF not all that impressive, only
would expect 2 to 4 inches of snow this weekend for the south
washington and north oregon cascades. Little change Monday with
continued zonal flow and the bulk of moisture aimed at western
washington, mostly to the north of our forecast area. cullen

Long term Monday night through Friday... We start next week under
relatively flat, zonal flow with a broad ridge off the coast of
california and an approaching trough coming out of the gulf of
alaska. We will see our first widespread rain in a while with this
system starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday
morning, with rainfall amounts around an inch for most of the area.

Snow levels will be falling through this event, starting around 5000-
5500 ft Tuesday morning, and falling to around 1500 ft by Wednesday
morning. Showers will be tapering off midday Wednesday. 1000-500-mb
thicknesses drop down to 523 dam, and 850 temps only lower down to
-4c while precip is falling, indicating no chance for snow down to
the valley floor with this system, though locations in the cascade
foothills and coast range could see a dusting of snow down to 1500
ft on Wednesday as precip is coming to an end. Good news for skiers
is that with ~1 inch of liquid equivalent, and snow levels starting
around 5500 ft, the resorts could see a foot of snow with this

Beyond Wednesday, ridging builds back up over the eastern
pacific and along the west coast. Ensemble members generally agree
on some sort of a ridge over the eastern pacific, though the exact
positioning is in flux. Most models suggest another dry spell
continuing into the weekend, with the return of east winds. Only
difference from this last dry spell may be that model temperatures
in the columbia basin are looking a little colder, suggesting colder
air filtering into the willamette valley as we go into next weekend.


Aviation Cold front has brought MVFR CIGS inland as expected,
but precipitation has been lacking. In fact, as of 23z there are
no ASOS locations reporting precipitation. Expect isolated
sprinkles and showers to continue into the evening, but otherwise
conditions will remain mostly dry. Ceilings are likely at their
worst right now with a gradual increase through the evening to
vfr conditions everywhere overnight.

Pdx and approaches... Current MVFR CIGS will improve toVFR this
evening. Isolated sprinkles or light showers are possible through
this evening with dry conditions afterward. Bentley

Marine Small craft advisory for the outer waters seems
justified with consistent small craft strength winds at buoy 89
and periodic small craft winds at buoy 29 and buoy 50. However,
if any of these winds are reaching the inner waters it is likely
only the outer portions of the inner waters as kast has seen very
little wind and tmk and onp post frontal winds haven't been that
strong. Seas look to remain below 10 feet through this period of
northwesterly fetch, however occasional periods of 7 to 9 seconds
have been showing up on both buoy 89 and buoy 29. Will need to
watch these conditions into the evening and see if they continue
and may need a small craft advisory for seas. Marine conditions
remain mostly benign through the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week until a stronger front approaches the coast
Tuesday. Pre-frontal winds will increase to at least small craft
strength with gales likely for most of the waters. In addition
to the gusty winds, seas will also increase into the mid teens
with this front and persist through the middle of next week.


Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 8 pm pst this evening for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi44 min 50°F1025.4 hPa (+0.3)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi44 min Calm G 1 44°F 1024 hPa (+0.5)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi44 min 49°F8 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi49 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast48°F42°F82%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE6SE3S3SE5SE4SE4SE5SE6E4SE5CalmSE3CalmSE3W4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW11
1 day agoNE10
2 days agoW3CalmSE5SE3CalmSE3CalmSE4CalmSE3CalmSE4CalmCalmSE4CalmSE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE11

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Fri -- 04:31 AM PST     2.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:08 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:29 AM PST     7.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:41 PM PST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Fri -- 05:08 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:24 AM PST     1.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:09 AM PST     7.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:24 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:32 PM PST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.