Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 6:16PM Saturday October 21, 2017 8:36 AM PDT (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:25AMMoonset 6:49PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 252 Am Pdt Sat Oct 21 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, rising to 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 47 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..SW wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 47 kt. Combined seas 19 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Rain.
Sun..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the morning. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, backing to S after midnight. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt, backing to ne in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the ne at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 12 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 5 to 10 kt, veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 252 Am Pdt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak ridge of high pres builds over the coastal waters this evening will give way to a strong warm front moving in from the west late tonight and Saturday morning. A cold front will move southeast across the waters Saturday afternoon and night. High pressure builds back over the waters Sun and Mon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211110
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
409 am pdt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis The first significant atmospheric river event of the
season is underway this morning across southwest washington and
northwest oregon. Rain will be heavy at times through Sunday morning
as a frontal zone stalls over the area. Portions of the willamette
valley may get a break in the heavier rainfall this afternoon and
evening as the frontal zone lifts slightly northward into washington.

However the front will move back south across the forecast area
tonight and Sunday morning, bringing another round of heavy rain.

Strong winds will develop this afternoon and evening to the south of
the front. Showers decrease rapidly Sunday night as the front weakens
over SW oregon. Drier weather is expected much of next week as high
pressure builds into the region, though a few showers are possible
Wednesday as a weak system clips by to our north.

Short term Today through Monday... Classic atmospheric river event
is underway across southwest washington and northwest oregon. Strong
isentropic lift over an incoming warm front is producing widespread
light to moderate rain across the forecast area. Snow levels have
already risen to around 5000 feet and will continue to rise as warmer
subtropical air works its way into the region. The warm front will
push eastward across the cascades today, but a baroclinic zone will
linger over the pac NW through tonight. This frontal zone will serve
as a conduit for subtropical moisture, fed across the entire pacific
from japan by a strong jet stream, 150 kt+ at its core. Precipitable
water is certainly not lacking, with amsu tpw showing a ribbon of
1.25 inch-plus stretching from the oregon coast all the way back
westward past the dateline. Meanwhile, the low-level jet is fairly
impressive to the south of the frontal zone, with 50 kt w-sw winds at
850 mb. The result of this low-level jet will be impressive rain
rates and rainfall totals in the higher terrain due to orographic
enhancement. Latest mesoscale precipitation discussion #0895 from wpc
mentions that rain rates in excess of 0.50 inch per hour are possible
in the higher terrain facing w-sw, and this certainly seems
reasonable once the warm front pushes through the forecast area.

Rainfall amounts will depend largely on how far northward into
washington the frontal zone lifts today, as the heaviest rain and
strongest forcing will follow the front. Latest models have been
trending slightly farther northward with the front's progress, which
makes sense considering there really isn't anything to keep the front
from progressing northward at the moment. Eventually this front's
parent low will move into british columbia this evening, putting some
southward pressure on the front. This will cause the front to slide
back southward late tonight and Sunday, pushing a round of heavy rain
southward across the forecast area.

Taking all this into account, southwest washington and the north
oregon coast coast range stand to see the heaviest rainfall from this
system at 4 to 8 inches. Rainfall will rack up quickly even south of
the front in the higher terrain, due to the favorable orographics.

However much of the willamette valley will probably get a break in
the heavier, steadier rainfall this afternoon and evening as the
front lifts north into wa. Adjusted our QPF downward in the
central south willamette valley to account for this. Overall rainfall
from this system over the weekend will probably be in the 1.50 to
2.50 inch range for the willamette and hood river valleys. With the
rain falling heavy at times in the columbia gorge due to the strong
w-sw low-level winds, the eagle creek burn scar area comes to mind as
a significant concern. Thus the flash flood watch issued for that
area certainly seems justified. Burn scar areas further to the south
will need to be monitored as well. Areal flood watches remain in
effect for our forecast area roughly north of salem, as smaller
rivers drainages and urban flooding are a concern with the occasional
heavy rain.

Not to be outdone, winds will be impressive with this system as well,
especially inland. While the strongest south winds will be along the
coast, with gusts 60-70 mph possible, inland areas will be
susceptible to gusts in the 35-50 mph range once the warm front
passes this morning and southerly pressure gradients tighten. Models
are showing 45-60 kt just above the surface this afternoon and
evening, with good potential for mixing to the south of the frontal
zone. It will be windy in the cascades as well, with good alignment
in the w-sw winds all the way up to the 90 kt winds at 500 mb per the
06z nam. Some higher ridges may knock on the door of high wind
warning criteria late this afternoon into tonight, which is 50 mph
sustained and 75 mph gusts for the cascades.

Models suggest the front will weaken quickly once it moves south of
the lane douglas county line Sunday evening, as high pressure quickly
builds into the pac nw. This will result in a quick drying trend
Sunday night, but there should be plenty of fog in the valleys due to
the abundant ground moisture. Monday looks at least partly sunny as
strong high pressure lingers, though fog may be a bit stubborn to
clear in portions of the willamette valley. Areas outside of
inversions have a decent chance to push into the 60s Monday as the
air mass warms aloft. Weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Monday night through Thursday... .Models are in agreement, that
shortwave ridging will develop over the pacific NW early next week.

This will bring a period of dry weather. But, likely to see
considerable low clouds and fog Mon am and again Tue am. But, should
be very great fall weather, with dry and mild conditions for most
areas. weak system will pass to our north later Tue night and wed,
but will only put a small chance of showers for the region.

Afterwards, models agree that will get back into classic october
offshore flow, with mild days and cool nights. rockey.

Aviation MainlyVFR conditions across the area at the moment,
but expect this to change as rainfall rates start to increase
over the next few hours. Will likely predominantly MVFR
conditions at all the inland terminals, apart from eug which may
have the best chance of a mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions,
particularly if they get a break in the rain during the late
afternoon early evening. Coastal sites will probably be MVFR
starting around 10-12z and then after 17z see extended periods of
ifr CIGS and vis through tonight. Strong southerly winds will
also develop along much of the oregon coast after 12z, with windy
conditions in the interior after 15z.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions early this morning. CIGS and
vis likely dropping to MVFR after around 15z and staying
predominantly MVFR through tonight. Southerly winds increasing
through the day today, with strongest gusts to 30 to 40 kt
around 00-10z tonight. -mccoy

Marine Winds reaching their first peak right about now with
the warm front moving across the waters. Expect wind gusts mostly
to stay below 47 kt. Winds will temporarily subside a bit behind
the warm front later this morning, but will ramp back up this
afternoon for our second peak in the winds. Could see a few gusts
to 50 kt with this second peak this evening, but shouldn't be
frequent. Seas right now are generally 14-17 ft, with seas
becoming more wind wave driven. Expect seas to generally stay in
the middle teens until this evening when seas build up into the
upper teens with the second peak in the winds ahead of the cold
front. Could see some areas off the central oregon coast reach 20
to 21 ft.

High pressure builds over the waters starting Sunday, improving
conditions on the coastal waters through midweek. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Flash flood watch from 10 am pdt this morning through Sunday
afternoon for central columbia river gorge-western
columbia river gorge.

Flood watch from noon pdt today through late Sunday night for
central willamette valley-coast range of northwest oregon-
greater portland metro area-lower columbia-north oregon
coast-northern oregon cascade foothills-northern oregon
cascades.

Wind advisory from noon today to 4 am pdt Sunday for central
willamette valley-greater portland metro area-south
willamette valley.

High wind warning from 8 am this morning to 5 am pdt Sunday for
central oregon coast.

High wind warning from noon today to 5 am pdt Sunday for
central coast range of western oregon-coast range of
northwest oregon.

High wind warning from noon today to 3 am pdt Sunday for north
oregon coast.

Wa... Flood watch from noon pdt today through late Sunday night for
central columbia river gorge-greater vancouver area-i-5
corridor in cowlitz county-south washington cascade
foothills-south washington cascades-south washington coast-
western columbia river gorge-willapa hills.

Wind advisory from noon today to 4 am pdt Sunday for greater
vancouver area.

High wind warning from noon today to 2 am pdt Sunday for
willapa hills.

High wind warning from noon today to 11 pm pdt this evening for
south washington coast.

Pz... Gale warning until 5 am pdt Sunday for coastal waters from cape
shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10 nm-coastal waters
from cascade head to florence or out 10 nm-waters from
cape shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm-
waters from cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 3 am
pdt Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi49 min 53°F1008.5 hPa
46096 46 mi67 min S 33 G 39 47°F 54°F1007.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi49 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 49°F 56°F1006.3 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi37 min 54°F15 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi42 minSSE 15 G 217.00 miLight Rain54°F50°F88%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SE5S5S6SE9S11S10S8S6CalmSE8S5S7SE3SE5SE9SE3SE9
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1 day agoE4W3CalmS6SE8S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Sat -- 02:36 AM PDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM PDT     1.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:24 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:11 PM PDT     7.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:03 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.15.66.46.55.94.83.52.41.81.92.84.15.66.97.57.26.34.831.40.3-0.10.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Sat -- 03:15 AM PDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:24 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM PDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:50 PM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:54 PM PDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.63.455.85.75.24.33.32.31.61.21.52.94.76.26.76.45.64.53.21.90.90.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.