Wednesday, April26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:14PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 10:59 PM PDT (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 6:27PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 832 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory for winds in effect until 11 pm pdt this evening...
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 5 am pdt Wednesday...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt this evening. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 8 seconds. Rain.
Wed..W wind 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 10 seconds. Rain likely in the morning...then scattered showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..W wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening.
Thu..W wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Fri night..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Sun..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 832 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A front will move ashore tonight. Surface high pressure builds offshore for the latter half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
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location: 45.52, -123.92     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 260414
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
913 pm pdt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis Rain has generally tapered off a bit across NW oregon and
sw washington this evening, but any break will be brief for much of
the district. The system which brought a rainy afternoon today has
since moved across the cascades, but a moist frontal system lingers
offshore in the NE pacific. This system will bring a decent amount of
rain and high elevation snow later tonight into Wednesday, especially
to western oregon. Snow levels are expected to lower back down to the
cascade passes late tonight and Wednesday morning, where a few inches
of new snow are expected. Showers are expected to decrease later wed
into thu, with higher pressure leading to drier weather Fri and sat.

The next weak frontal system is expected Sat night or Sunday,
bringing a chance for rain.

Short term Tonight through Friday... The warm front which brought a
rainy afternoon for most of the forecast area has since moved into
eastern wa/or this evening, leaving behind a fairly soupy and moist
air mass behind it across SW wa/nw or. Meanwhile, water vapor
satellite imagery shows a nearly stationary baroclinic zone
stretching from the oregon and northern california coast west-
southwestward all the way to west pacific tropical depression three
east of the philippines.

This tap to deeper tropical moisture is showing up in the latest
derived blended tpw imagery, which indicates a swath of 1.25-1.75
inch total precipitable water along the front just off the or/ca
coast. Meanwhile, a decent upper level shortwave can be seen just
north of the frontal zone, crossing 140w and moving fast courtesy of
a 125 kt+ jet stream which is aimed toward the central and southern
oregon coast. The jet and the shortwave appear to be organizing a
weak wave of low pressure along the front, with some signs of a
baroclinic leaf and cooling cloud tops inside 135w.

The result of all this will be an increase in rain spreading onshore
into western oregon later tonight, while an increasingly strong jet
stream supports heavier precip along the cascades. This, combined
with gradually cooling 850 mb temps, will likely cause the snow level
to slowly fall to willamette and santiam pass level late tonight and
early Wednesday morning, while precipitation is still rather heavy.

Decided to issue a winter weather advisory for our oregon cascades
zones above 4500 feet midnight-noon wed. While the passes may come up
just short of the 6-inch advisory criteria, ski resort elevations
above 5000-5500' elevation could see as much as a foot of new snow
due to favorable orographics, moisture, and good jet dynamics
associated with this system. Lower elevations should get a good
soaking from this system later tonight into early wed, especially
south of salem.

As cold air continues to move into the region behind the front on
Thursday, snow levels may fall a bit further, but should remain above
3,000 feet. Little change in the pattern on Thursday, with ongoing
showers in the cascades with orographic enhancement due to the
westerly flow aloft. However, a passing shortwave impulse may also
enhance shower coverage into the interior.

Finally, after another very wet week, models suggest a bit of hope on
the horizon of the short term. Heights begin to rise and flow aloft
turns a bit more northerly, leading to a drying trend. While showers
will still be around - especially in the cascades, but also elsewhere
- there will likely be some breaks in the clouds at times. Best
chance at dry and clearing will be across the southern and western
portions of the forecast area. weagle/cullen

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Showers continue to
further diminish later Friday through Saturday as an upper level
ridge over the eastern pacific will further amplify in between low
pressure systems both upstream and downstream. Not quite confident
enough yet to bring sky cover to mostly sunny wording, but did trend
things that direction. Meanwhile, temperatures will also respond
accordingly with high temperatures in the afternoon warming into the
mid 60s - all the way to around seasonal normals, at least for one
day! However, this will be yet another only short-lived intermission
in the season of steady rain. A weakening frontal system will bring
increasing round of clouds, another chance of rain, and slightly
cooler temperatures. Forecast models do diverge a bit the first half
of next week, but as we transition to may there is some potential
for a bit of shift in the pattern. At this point, trended the
forecast dry for Monday and Tuesday, but did so somewhat cautiously
for two reasons - first, ensemble members continue to suggest a
somewhat large spread in possible solutions; second, we've seen this
sort of pattern in the models several times in recent weeks, where a
seeming trend toward dry conditions and a building ridge fails to
appear. That said, this would be consistent with the latest CPC 6-10
outlook of warmer and drier than average may 1-5 period. An abundance
of words to say the forecast was trended this direction but with
lower than typical confidence. cullen

Hydrology The lower columbia river will be running above bankfull
for the next several days. Primary areas of concern are the columbia
near vancouver and downstream past the columbia near longview to the
mouth. Contributions to the high flow are coming from high
astronomical tides in addition to increased runoff from the snake
river and willamette river basins. Lower reaches of tributaries
flowing into the columbia river may also experience periods of
elevated water during the high tide cycles. Please continue to
monitor the forecasts for the next several days. /jbonk

Aviation Widespread ifr to low MVFR conditions this evening
as a frontal system slowly moves across the area. Expect ceilings
to remain low overnight in the ifr to MVFR range. Conditions
improve during the day Wednesday with CIGS lifting up toVFR with
showers around the area.

Kpdx and approaches... Ifr ceilings this evening lifting up to
MVFR later tonight. Conditions improve toVFR during the day on
Wednesday as the front moves east of the area with higher CIGS and
showers in the area.

Marine Solid small craft winds early this evening beginning to
decrease. Expect winds to be 20 kt or less after 06z and remain
15-20 kt Wednesday. Seas running 7 to 9 ft with short period
tonight which will create some rough conditions. A weak surface
low passes south of the waters Wednesday while broader high
pressure builds over the nepac keeping a relative lull in winds
through Friday. Seas may next reach 10-11 ft Thursday through
early Friday as the southern end of a swell train clips the
northern waters from a surface low crossing the alaskan
panhandle. Tw

Pqr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to noon pdt
Wednesday for cascades in lane county-northern oregon

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 11 pm pdt this evening for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 am to
7 am pdt Wednesday.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 4 pm to
8 pm pdt Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi47 min 52°F1012.3 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 48 mi47 min SW 13 G 17 50°F 51°F1009.7 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi29 min 51°F7 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR9 mi84 minSSW 64.00 miOvercast50°F48°F94%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4E3SE4CalmCalmCalmS11
1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmNE6NE7NE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW10NW9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S8S9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Miami Cove
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Wed -- 12:59 AM PDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 AM PDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 AM PDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:51 PM PDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:44 PM PDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Wed -- 01:39 AM PDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 AM PDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:44 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:35 AM PDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM PDT     6.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:36 PM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.