Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 4:04 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 223 Pm Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will continue through the weekend before the next front arrives late Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS66 KPQR 190338 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Update National Weather Service Portland OR 836 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

UPDATE
Showers overperformed expectations a bit this afternoon across the Portland metro and points north, becoming strong enough to produce heavy downpours and small hail. One such shower resulted in 0.24" of rain at our office over the course of 10-15 minutes around 6 PM. The showers likely overperformed due to perfect timing of a jet streak moving across NW Oregon during the hours of peak heating and instability. These showers have since mostly moved into the higher terrain, where they have produced a dusting of snow above 4000-4500 ft according to ODOT webcams. Expect this activity to gradually decrease overnight, then isolated to scattered showers are expected Sunday. Sunday's showers should be less numerous as the jet streak/shortwave trough moving into the CWA Sunday afternoon will be much weaker than this afternoon's disturbance.

We updated the forecast to increase PoPs in general, mostly north of US Highway 20. Tonight should be mostly dry for inland valleys, but PoPs increase to the 15-25% range in isolated showers Sunday afternoon.

Aviation section has also been updated below. Weagle

SYNOPSIS
Mild onshore flow will continue through Monday. Could see a random shower or two in afternoons/evenings, but little if much in way of moisture. Next decent front will arrive on Tue, with areas of rain, then showers behind the front in the cooler unstable air mass for Tue night and Wed. Overall, looks to remain on cool side and unsettled through end of next week.

SHORT TERM
(Sat afternoon through Monday)...Still have rather modest onshore flow, as evident by the clouds and cool temperatures.
Average high temperatures for mid-May are around 70 deg inland, and low to mid 60s along the coast. At 1 pm, many areas still hovering in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With onshore flow, and bit of overturning of the marine layer, will have some showers about the area into this evening. But, rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side, generally a trace up to a tenth of an inch. Suspect those heavier amounts will be over the higher terrain, such as Coast Range and into the Cascades.

Onshore continues tonight. Clouds will gradually dissipate during the evening. But, another weak upper level disturbance, currently near Vancouver Island, will arrive and move inland over Washington.
Though most areas will remain dry, it may provide just enough lift to get a renewed potential of showers later tonight into early Sun.
Again, think best chance of this will be over the higher terrain of the Coast Range/Willapa Hills, as well as the Cascades.

Onshore flow will maintain cool weather again on Sunday. Like today, will have areas of marine stratus that will be slow to break apart.
Onshore flow weakens on Monday, as high pressure builds over Oregon.
As such, more sunshine for Monday. And, will be a bit warmer, with afternoon temperatures back to around average for mid-May.

Will need to watch the Upper Hood River Valley for the potential of frost each morning through Monday, given the chilly air mass. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance suggests the best chance of temps reaching 35 deg F or cooler will be early Sunday morning, when there is roughly a 60% chance of Parkdale being that cold. These probabilities fall off dramatically north of Parkdale, with only a 10% chance shown for Odell. For now this coverage/probability does not seem sufficient to warrant a Frost Advisory. /WeagleRock

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...No changes. Unsettled weather looks to return Tuesday as another upper trough dives S-SE from the BC coast. The 00z WPC clusters show a variety of trajectories for the upper trough, with members almost evenly split between an "inside slider" solution with an inland trajectory versus a track closer to the coast. The latter would pose a better chance for showers across the forecast area, and it would be colder - potentially cold enough to bring some snow to the Cascade passes. The latter solution would also invite a second system to follow later in the week, prolonging the cool/unsettled weather. Given the uncertainty in track and timing, our forecast mostly uses the National Blend of Models deterministic forecast onward from Tuesday. This shows the best shower chances on Tuesday, with chances generally decreasing after that. Lowland high temps are forecast to generally be in the upper 50s along the coast and 60s inland, while the higher terrain sees 40s and 50s. Some of our cooler valleys may not be totally out of the woods yet when it comes to frost - NBM shows roughly a 10-20% chance of lows 35 deg F or cooler for Parkdale each morning Wednesday through Friday. This would require the upper trough to set up far enough west to bring a chill to the air mass, but not too far west to where clouds and precipitation would hold temps up during the overnight hours. /Weagle

AVIATION
Predominately VFR conditions through over the next 24 hours. A surface high over the northeast Pacific remain anchored across the PNW with an upper level disturbance continuing to traverse the area through early Sunday morning. This will support continued scattered showers, mainly across the northern coast and inland areas north of Salem. Significant drops in visibilities and/or cigs are not expected with passing showers with very brief periods of high-end MVFR cigs. 25-45% probability of MVFR clouds building along the Cascades through 18Z Sunday. North/northwest sustained between 5-10 kt

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions into Sunday. Winds will generally remain out of the northwest sustained between 5-10 kt. -Batz/42

MARINE
The latest buoy observations show occasional gusts to around 20 knots along with wave highs around 6-7 ft at 8 seconds.
Winds are expected to become less breezy tonight but northwesterly swell moving into the waters will maintain choppy seas around 7-8 ft at 7-8 seconds. Winds will pick back up Sunday afternoon with 40-70% chance of gusts of 21 kts or greater, mainly across the outer waters. A Small Craft Advisory beginning at 00Z for the outer waters is mainly for steep seas and occasional gusts near 20 kts. The advisory then expands into the inner waters Sunday morning where steep seas will be possible.
Steep seas may persist past 12Z Monday but confidence wanes this far out.

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-50% chance).
-Batz/TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273.



MARINE
The latest buoy observations show occasional gusts to around 20 knots along with wave highs around 6-7 ft at 8 seconds.
Winds are expected to become less breezy tonight but northwesterly swell moving into the waters will maintain choppy seas around 7-8 ft at 7-8 seconds. Winds will pick back up Sunday afternoon with 40-70% chance of gusts of 21 kts or greater, mainly across the outer waters. A Small Craft Advisory beginning at 00Z for the outer waters is mainly for steep seas and occasional gusts near 20 kts. The advisory then expands into the inner waters Sunday morning where steep seas will be possible.
Steep seas may persist past 12Z Monday but confidence wanes this far out.

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-50% chance).
-Batz/TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273.

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Miami Cove, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

Tillamook
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Sun -- 03:50 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:23 AM PDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:03 PM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM PDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:49 PM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

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