Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenville, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:27PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:14 PM EDT (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 930 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 930 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will remain north of the waters through today. A cold front will cross the area tonight. A weak low will develop south of new england Sunday night and move into southern new england on Monday. It then shifts northeast across the gulf of maine Monday night, before exiting the region on Tuesday. Another system crosses the area Wednesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenville, ME
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location: 45.54, -69.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 201339
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
939 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front will slowly lift back northward as a warm
front across the region today into tonight. The region will
remain in a very moist air mass this weekend and into early next
week. Low pressure will approach from the southwest on Monday.

Near term through tonight
930am update... The stationary boundary remains between
millinocket and bangor with temp and dew point gradients of
around 20f. The heaviest steady precip is exiting the forecast
area and the remainder of the day will be more showery. The bulk
of the rainfall has fallen and now watching response of streams
and rivers. There is some convection in western connecticut and
mass. That will be funneled along the frontal boundary later
this afternoon towards bangor and northern washington county.

There will be some elevated instability but confidence is not
high enough to add thunderstorms at this time. The boundary
lifts north tonight and lows will occur in the evening with
rising temperatures and fog as the night progresses. There are
signs of elevated instability tonight too, but it appears that
isolated thunder would be the worst outcome. The entire area
will be in the warm sector on Sunday, but an onshore flow and
some continued showers will make for a chilly day on the coast.

The warm spot will be in NW aroostook where 70f is possible for
the first time since early last october.

Previous discussion...

moderate to locally heavy rain across the whole area today as
warm, moist air from the southwest overrides cool low level
northeast flow. Surface cold front slid just a bit further south
than expected, and as of 4am is just south of bangor. Expect
the front to begin to inch back north as a warm front today and
then surge north tonight through the whole area, with steady or
slowly rising temperatures. Areas of fog another hazard. Rain
will be more intermittent tonight than today and favoring
eastern portions of the forecast area. See hydrology discussion
for more on the flooding threat.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Rainfall will be less organized across the rgn Sun and Sun ngt
as sct rn shwrs with all of the fa in semi-warm sector
conditions. Areas of morn fog will lift across the area by
midday, xcpt alg the very coast where patchy fog will persist
even into the aftn with areas of fog returning on land late sun
ngt into Mon morn.

Another weak sfc low associated with the remnants of the SE u.S,
upper low will likely spread more organized rnfl upwards to 0.25
to 0.50 inches back into spcly the SE hlf of the fa Mon contg
into Mon eve with cooler air movg back into the area Mon ngt as
steadier rnfl moves E of the fa, leaving late ngt sct rn and
higher trrn NW rn-sn shwrs.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Longer range models are only in fair agreement with the
evolution of wx systems for the mid to late week. Most models do
agree that low pres from a S WV complex alf from S cntrl can and
the NRN great lks could bring the rgn the next chc of precip
late Tue ngt til Wed eve, but differ on the tmg and placement of
the best dynamics. This system will be colder, bringing the
potential of wet snfl durg morn and ovrngt hrs with stronger
dynamics, but we are not committed to mention any sig snfl attm
given model spread of outcomes. We do go with MAX pops in the
likely range. After a break on Thu thru Fri morn, another low
pres system from the midwest could bring additional precip msly
in the form of rn to the rgn late Fri into Fri ngt, but there is
less certainty with this system, which appears at odds with
cpc's 6-10 precip outlook which favored increased probs of drier
conditions attm.

Aviation 13z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term: widespread rain and low clouds today and tonight.

Generally ifr or lifr. Low level wind shear an issue at most taf
sites.

Short to long term: mainly MVFR clgs with areas of ifr clgs and
vsbys with more organized rnfl, msly ovr downeast sites on mon
and then all sites late Tue ngt into wed.

Marine
Near term: moist southerly flow with areas of fog over the
waters. Small craft winds today ease somewhat into tonight,
though seas remain above 5 feet into tonight.

Short to long term: a lengthy pd of SCA seas will linger thru
sun and even into Sun ngt before seas subside below 5 ft on mon
and cont so thru tue. Otherwise, patchy to areas of marine fog
will cont to at least Mon morn as moist sub trop air comes into
contact with the cold gulf of me ssta's. Went with blended
ww3 nwps guidance for fcst WV hts thru these ptns of the fcst.

Hydrology
This weekend marks one of the most potentially eventful hydro
events in years that covers much of the forecast area. The
combination of remaining deep snowpack in northern zones and the
clash with a very warm and humid air mass on the backside of a
bermuda high will put a lot of water in the rivers. A stationary
front will mark the boundary of the clash across the state
into Saturday and bring three separate hydro concerns. First is
remaining ice jams on the aroostook and saint john rivers. The
second concern is urban and small stream flooding due the
combination of heavy rain and snow melt into Saturday. The last
concern will be the response of main stem rivers Sunday into
Monday.

In terms of the ice jams, a flood warning remains in effect
today along a portion of the aroostook river. The gauge at
washburn is reading nearly 17 feet as of early this morning and
is right on the border between minor and moderate flood stage.

The gauge will continue to show fluctuations and aroostook
emergency management reported that gardner creek road near
washburn remain closed due to an ice jam that extends from
upstream of the washburn bridge towards crouseville. Emergency
management is also watching the parsons road between washburn
and presque isle. We are watching ice jams on the saint john
near saint francis, frenchville and van buren, but have no need
to issue warnings at this time. Most or all ice jam issues
should be resolved by later this weekend as rivers continue to
rise.

A point flood warning also remains in effect for the
mattawamkeag above mattawamkeag until further notice. The river
is near 14 feet early this morning and is expected to slowly
rise to 16 feet by early Tuesday morning. At 14 feet, flooding
begins along the bancroft road between wytopitlock and danforth.

Snow melt and rainfall could cause minor flooding road issues
these types of issues will be exacerbated by locally heavy
rainfall today for small streams. The flood watch is now in
effect through Monday evening. The combination of rainfall of
1.5 to 3 inches of rain along with significant snowmelt in areas
that still have snow on the ground will lead to significant
rises on larger streams Saturday and Saturday night... And on
main stem rivers Sunday into early next week. There is
confidence that smaller streams will flood. There is also high
confidence that some areas will experience minor to moderate
flooding. Confidence is not as high as to whether any areas will
experience major flooding, but it is a possibility. There are
uncertainties in terms of the exact remaining swe that will
empty into rivers. According to dam operators, storage capacity
in the penobscot watershed is favorable and that will help
mitigate potential main stem issues.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Flood watch through Monday evening for mez001>006-010-011-015-
031-032.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz050>052.

Near term... Foisy
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... Foisy vjn
marine... Foisy vjn
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Greenville, ME6 mi18 minNW 8 mi39°F37°F93%1014.2 hPa

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Last 24hrSE11SE9SE9SE6SE5E3SE5SE4SE4NW6NW8NW8NW6NW8W3E9E9SE5NW3NW6NW64NW4NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine (2)
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Bangor
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Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     -2.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     15.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM EDT     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.615.111.97.63.2-0.2-2.1-1.90.85.410.414.215.815.2139.35.21.6-0.6-1.10.851014.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine
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Bangor
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Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     -2.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:12 PM EDT     15.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 PM EDT     -1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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16.514.911.87.63.3-0.2-2.3-20.85.510.514.115.61512.89.35.31.7-0.7-1.20.851014.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.