Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Mill, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:48PM Thursday February 21, 2019 1:54 PM PST (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:41PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 251 Am Pst Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 8 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from this afternoon through this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 10 ft lowering to 7 ft Thursday night. - first ebb...strong. Around 6 am Thursday. Seas near 11 feet with breakers. - second ebb...very strong. Around 615 pm Thursday. Seas near 10 feet with breakers. - third ebb...strong. Around 645 am Friday. Seas near 9 feet with breakers possible.
PZZ200 251 Am Pst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure remains offshore over the ne pac this week. A frontal system will move down the coast Fri and Fri night, followed by a weak low Sat night and Sun.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Mill, OR
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location: 45.58, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211750
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
950 am pst Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis High pressure will bring dry weather today, albeit still
on the chilly side. While much of the region sees partly to mostly
sunny skies today, low clouds are expected to persist into early
afternoon for the inland valleys south of salem. Meanwhile, a cold
front will be approaching from the gulf of alaska. This system will
spread valley rain and mountain snow across the forecast area Friday.

The front will likely stall over oregon through the weekend, bringing
plenty of precipitation to portions of western oregon. Snow levels
will lower to the north of the front, potentially approaching the
valley floors at times, though this remains uncertain. More certain
is the fact that another major dump of snow appears likely for the
oregon cascades this weekend through early next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Weak high pressure will move southward across
the forecast area today, bringing a break from the wet weather. Some
patches of dense valley fog developed earlier Wednesday night, but
these have generally lifted in favor of a low stratus deck. Low
clouds will be most persistent south of salem today, especially near
eugene. While our current high temperature forecast has eugene
reaching the lower to mid 40s today, eugene could easily be stuck in
the 30s today if low clouds fail to clear by late afternoon. A
similar situation may happen in hood river as well, due to the
stratus and cool air that have pooled up in the columbia basin.

Otherwise, northerly flow and high pressure should bring partly to
mostly sunny skies for most of the forecast area today, with
temperatures only slightly below seasonal normals.

Our next frontal system is taking shape as a potent shortwave trough
moves into the gulf of alaska. The resulting low pressure and cold
front will move quickly southeast, spreading precipitation across
much of western washington by midday Friday and across northwest
oregon Friday afternoon and evening. At this point it appears
precipitation will arrive too late to cause a snow or freezing rain
threat for low elevations Friday, especially as southerly flow
increases through the day. However, if the frontal timing speeds up
by 4-6 hours from latest guidance, there could be a brief period of
snow or freezing rain in the lowlands Friday morning. Again, this
appears unlikely based on latest guidance, with only about a 10
percent chance of significant snow- or ice-related problems for the
lowlands Friday.

Latest guidance continues to suggest the front will stall somewhere
over west-central or southwestern oregon Saturday as it begins to
interact with the subtropical branch of the jet stream. If and where
this front stalls will have major implications on the forecast
Saturday through early next week. Given that most models have some
variant of an atmospheric river aimed toward west-central or
southwest oregon by late Sat night, suspect the front will stall
somewhere near douglas county. This should allow a switch to
scattered showers for the north of roughly salem, while areas to the
south remain in a steadier valley rain mountain snow pattern.

One potential wrinkle in the forecast Friday night and Saturday is
shown by the 00z and now 06z gfs, as another slug of jet stream
energy sets up right over our cwa. This may enhance shower activity
to the north of the front, primarily for our north coastal zones and
inland areas pdx metro northward. With a quasi-stationary front to
our south, southerly flow ahead of any showers would be limited and
there is a chance snow levels could be lower than would normally be
expected with the -6 deg c 850 mb temps and onshore flow shown by the
06z nam. We kept snow levels above 1000 feet for the time being, but
this certainly bears watching.

Due to continued uncertainty in where the heaviest, steadiest QPF is
expected, and the fact steady snow is not expected in the cascades
until Friday evening, will hold off on issuing any winter highlights
to allow the day shift a chance to take a gander at the 12z model
cycle. However, confidence is high that some locations in the oregon
cascades are going to see another foot or two of snow - or more - by
the middle of next week. Weagle

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. As mentioned above in the short term discussion,
the location where the frontal zone stalls Fri night sat, if it
stalls at all, will have significant implications on the forecast
through early next week. For now, our forecast is based on the
admittedly weak assumption that the frontal zone will stall near
douglas county, with the steadiest, heaviest QPF aimed toward lane
county and points south. However, there have been model-to-model and
run-to-run differences. For example, the 06z GFS shifted the quasi-
stationary front about 50-100 miles north of the 00z run, placing it
closer to salem. With waves of low pressure travelling along the
front and remaining south of the columbia gorge while crossing the
cascades, this solution would bring the risk of lowland snow for sw
washington, columbia gorge, and perhaps even the portland metro
area. This also could bring a hydro threat to areas near and south
of the front, which in the particular case of the 06z gfs, would be
areas salem southward. However, this is just one of many solutions,
and the majority seem to want to stall the front further
south... Keeping areas north of salem drier while eugene flirts with
low elevation snow and SW oregon deals with most of the hydro
concerns.

This seems to be one of those situations a blend of models is made
for, especially when it comes positioning of the front, so we nudged
the forecast toward the national blend. Confidence in any model
solution is lower than usual for the early to middle portion of next
week, as there is a complex pattern upstream complicated by a
potential blocking ridge over alaska and interaction between the
polar and subtropical branches of the jet stream. Once the synoptic
pattern is settled on by the models, we will have a better idea of
the finer details. Weagle

Aviation Areas of a low stratus with ifr CIGS have persisted this
morning in the willamette valley, and are likely to persist into the
early afternoon, especially in the south valley, before dissipating
and leaving behindVFR conditions. GenerallyVFR conditions are then
expected to persist for most of the area tonight, before low clouds
begin to spread back into the northern part of the area Friday
morning. The low clouds are likely to lead to MVFR CIGS along the
north coastal areas after about 15z, while inland clouds are likely
to remainVFR. There is a chance for seeing some low stratus or fog
with ifr conditions redeveloping late tonight in the south
willamette valley, most likely after 09z and continuing through 16z.

Kpdx and approaches... Kpdx is likely to remain on the southern
fringes of an ifr cloud deck into the early afternoon, before clouds
eventually break up leavingVFR conditions after 19-20z.VFR
conditions are then expected to continue through the night and into
Friday morning, with a small chance of fog or low stratus
redeveloping between 09z and 16z.

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. Winds and seas
continue to ease today. Winds are below advisory criteria, but seas
remain around 12 feet this morning and should then drop below 10
feet this evening. Winds will then turn more northeasterly before
winds back to the west Friday ahead of the next storm system. This
front appears rather weak, but should be strong enough to produce
small craft advisory level wind gusts of 25 kt across at least the
northern waters Friday. Winds should then be rather tame across the
waters over the weekend as a weak surface low pressure develops off
the washington coast and drops southward. A low pressure developing
along a stalled front somewhere off the northern california or
southern oregon coast could impact the waters early next week, but
where it will end up remains highly uncertain. Latest model
projections generally keep it south, but if it tracks more directly
into our waters or north of us then winds and seas will almost
certainly be higher. Mh neuman

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 4 pm
this afternoon to 8 pm pst this evening.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 38 mi60 min 41°F1020.2 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi60 min 51°F1020 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 68 mi60 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 42°F 41°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi61 minW 510.00 miFair42°F35°F76%1020.3 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi61 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds43°F33°F68%1020.5 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR10 mi61 minVar 410.00 miFair46°F28°F50%1020 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi61 minSE 310.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1020.1 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR20 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1020.2 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi61 minNE 810.00 miFair46°F27°F47%1020 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5E5E4SE3SE4E3CalmE3E4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3NW3CalmCalmE3W34W5
1 day agoS6S6S6S4SW5S5S6W5CalmCalmW6CalmW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W74
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3S4S45

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Thu -- 03:45 AM PST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:38 AM PST     1.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM PST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:37 PM PST     1.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:40 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.2-0.2-0.300.71.31.71.81.61.31.110.70.40.20.40.91.51.921.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Thu -- 02:44 AM PST     6.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:54 AM PST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM PST     7.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:23 PM PST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.756.56.86.45.44.22.91.710.81.63.65.77.27.36.75.64.22.71.30.2-0.3-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.