Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:15PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:22 PM EST (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 255 Pm Est Mon Jan 28 2019
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Snow. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West wind up to 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last nearshore forecast issuance of the season. The nearshore forecast will resume around march 18 2019.
LMZ342 Expires:201901290400;;064930 FZUS53 KAPX 281955 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 255 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-290400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
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location: 45.58, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 232010
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
310 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 305 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Developing icing threat tonight...

high impact weather potential: precipitation type issues with a
likely transition to freezing rain across eastern upper this
evening... And a lingering icing threat across northeast lower at
least this evening (and may even a bit of thunder to spice things
up).

Pattern synopsis forecast: 998mb surface low continues to organize
over southern kansas at early afternoon as associated short wave
trough spirals its way across kansas oklahoma. Low should continue
to track northeast toward a 5-6mb 3h pressure fall center over
northwest missouri. Lead area of precipitation has been spreading
northeast across wisconsin northern michigan within a zone of
isentropic ascent and upper divergence... Back edge of this area of
precip crossing lake michigan with some drying noted in WV imagery.

Initial push of precipitation was snow across eastern upper and tip
of the mitt... Next batch over southwest portion of the forecast area
is liquid with temperatures in the mid 30s. More substantial
precipitation across the central plains mid mississippi valley
closer to the developing surface low. Low layers are still
relatively dry across northern michigan given preponderance ofVFR
ceilings... Lower clouds encroaching upon i-96 corridor.

Surface low will continue to deepen (probably sub-980mb) as it heads
northeast toward northern lake michigan by Sunday morning.

Associated occluded front will also lift across lower michigan
during the overnight hours... Strongest cold advection however will
lag behind and not arrive until later Sunday morning.

Primary forecast concerns: eastern upper... Will be a break in the
precipitation into early this evening as initial push of snow moves
northeast and low levels are still dry. Next surge of precipitation
not likely until late evening or perhaps closer to midnight. By
then elevated warm nose expected to have pushed into eastern
upper... While surface temperatures should still be below freezing.

So the threat of icing will ramp up (maybe some ice pellets at the
onset)... With temperatures likely to remain below freezing across
northern chippewa county until closer to daybreak. Anticipating qpf
amounts of 0.50-1.00"... So ice accumulations could end up being in
the 0.25"-0.50" range across chippewa county depending on how
quickly temperatures warm. So needless to say ongoing winter storm
warning will continue.

Northern lower... Similar to eastern upper will likely be a break in
the precipitation this evening through may see some drizzle freezing
drizzle as low levels moisten up. Next round of precipitation
should develop mid to late evening and will be predominantly
liquid... And temperatures may be a bit marginal across the interior
higher terrain and thus there is some lingering icing threat
(perhaps up to 0.10" ice accumulation). Eventually temperatures
should warm well into the 30s with approaching occlusion... So
eventually precipitation should change to all rain drizzle.

Trowal signature ahead of occluded front with sharp theta-e ridge
and steep mid level lapse rates may lead to some embedded elevated
convection. Advection fog likely to be an issue as well with
increasing dew points over substantial snow cover. Headline
decisions to be covered in the next section.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 305 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Blizzard conditions Sunday through Sunday night...

high impact weather potential: snow, heavy at times, along with very
strong winds leading to blizzard conditions and dangerous travel
Sunday into Monday morning.

Pattern synopsis forecast: little change in large-scale thinking
from 24 hours ago as focus remains largely around the Sunday through
Sunday night time frame. Mid-level cutoff, negatively tilted wave
and attendant surface low pressure across the central plains this
afternoon will rapidly deepen while trekking northeast toward the
great lakes tonight. The progged ~970-975 mb low pressure as it
crosses eastern upper mi straits Sunday afternoon falls outside of
the naefs GEFS climate return interval since 1979 and some 4-5 sd
below the mean... In short, this is something quite rare across
northern michigan for mid-february, to say the least.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: transition to all snow Sunday
morning-midday, along with increasingly strong winds leading to
blizzard conditions and sporadic power outages.

By early Sunday morning, ~979 mb low pressure is expected to be
situated across northern lake michigan, gradually trekking northward
and continuing to deepen toward 970 mb through the remainder of
the morning hours. The system's cold front is expected to be
crossing the forecast area from west to east through this time
frame aiding to spill cooler temperatures back into northern
michigan. An impressive pressure gradient on the backside of the
system will result in increasing winds throughout the day on
Sunday, becoming west-northwesterly sustained between 25-40 mph
area-wide by early afternoon into the evening hours all while
frequent gusts vary from 50-60 mph during this same time frame.

Winds ever so slowly begin to relax Sunday night into early Monday
morning; however, will continue to remain problematic as gusts
range from 25-35 mph by the Monday morning commute.

In addition to very strong winds will be a transition from a
rain freezing rain snow mix to all snow Sunday morning.

Falling blowing snow, potentially heavy in places downwind of lake
michigan superior, will be the rule throughout the day into early
Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to prog inversion
heights around 9-10 kft with omega pegged directly in a deepening
dgz, sufficient synoptic moisture support above the inversion and
unidirectional west-northwest boundary layer winds lending support to
dominant banding and pockets of heavy snow. Do expect aforementioned
strong winds to have little trouble carrying lake effect enhanced
snow further south east than would normally be the case... Including
along and east of m-33 in northeast lower. Accumulations remain
somewhat tricky, especially given such strong winds and the
potential for dendrites to shred apart before reaching the ground.

None the less, will continue to gradually bump accumulations up
across the typical snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper
where 3-6 inches of new snow is expected, perhaps a few localized
amounts up to 8 inches. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches expected
outside of the snow belts (lowest from near alpena to saginaw bay
with an inch or less expected).

Impacts: no way around it - all of northern michigan will be nasty
Sunday through Sunday night. Whether there's one inch of
accumulation or 8 inches, very strong winds combined with falling
snow (locally heavy) will lead to blowing drifting snow and very low
visibility. Blizzard conditions are expected, especially Sunday
afternoon through the first half of Sunday night. Travel will be
dangerous and is strongly discouraged. Sporadic power outages are
likely. **have issued a blizzard warning for the majority of the
forecast area given the concerns mentioned above, plus a healthy
snow pack across the region, which may be dampened a bit due to rain
tonight (but we've seen plenty of cases in the past where rain does
not limit blowing snow of a preexisting snow pack as much as one
would think in high wind situations such as this). The exception to
the blizzard warning is the ongoing winter storm warning with an
incing threat mentioned in the prior section and a high wind
warning from alpena southward to gladwin county, mainly due to a
lack of expected new snowfall in those areas. Certainly will still
be some blowing snow in those areas, but not expected to be the
extent as elsewhere to their west.**
some quick research regarding blizzard warnings issued by apx: aside
from the chippewa county blizzard warning issued earlier this month,
these will be the first issued since 2012 when coastal lake mi
counties were under a blizzard warning. Have to go back to 2008 to
find the last warning for interior counties. So again, this is some
pretty rare territory despite the abundance of winter weather that
occurs in northern michigan.

Looking beyond Monday morning, the pressure gradient relaxes as low
pressure moves off to the east and high pressure gradually presses
into the region from the west, yielding a return to mainly impact-
free weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Cold temperatures
through the forecast period, as well. Early day highs on Sunday fall
to single digit lows Sunday night. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the
low-mid teens with overnight lows a few degrees on either size of
zero.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 305 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal for now.

Early in the period, the GFS remains the outlier with respect to
snow chances as it ramps up another system across the great lakes
region, bringing another round of accumulating snow. Few other
deterministic ensemble guidance members show a similar solution, so
gut feeling is to trend away from another potentially impactful snow
event at this point. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions expected
to prevail through the remainder of the work week before another
potentially impactful storm is possible next weekend as energy
ejects lee of the rockies toward the great lakes. Worth monitoring
over the next week as details become more clear.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 618 am est Sat feb 23 2019
strong deepening low pressure moving into the SRN plains will lift
up into NRN michigan by daybreak Sunday. Outside of some possible
brief light snow at pln through shortly after daybreak,VFR
conditions in thickening mid and upper level clouds will be common
through the day. Then, MVFR ifr conditions return, in mixed
precipitation of rain, snow and some freezing rain, which will
spread over all of NRN michigan later this afternoon and into
tonight. Precipitation is expected to change over to all rain
later tonight in a warming air mass.

Light ese winds will increase later today and into tonight ahead of
the approaching storm, with mechanical mixing likely getting held
back due to a stable near sfc layer. This brings in the likely
development of llws, which continues through much of tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Blizzard warning from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for miz016-
019>021-025>027-031>033.

Blizzard warning from 10 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for miz017-
018-022-023-028-029-034-035.

High wind warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
miz024-030-036-041-042.

Winter storm warning until 7 am est Monday for miz008-015.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Mg
long term... Mg ba
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi35 min E 22 G 24 31°F 33°F1015.7 hPa31°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 11 34°F 1013.9 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi43 min ESE 16 G 22 31°F 1014.2 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi83 min E 21 31°F 32°F26°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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E31
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SE17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi29 minESE 910.00 miOvercast35°F21°F59%1015.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi28 minE 12 G 1510.00 miOvercast35°F22°F60%1013.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi28 minE 127.00 miLight Snow35°F24°F66%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3E3SE5SW7W7SW44W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmSE4
1 day agoW13
G26
W13
G23
W15
G25
W12
G19
W10
G16
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W8W7W6W4W6NW10NW6NW3W3W4CalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--SE7SE10
G18
SE7E11
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G22
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G24
SE7
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E11E8SE6SE5SE4Calm--W18
G28
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G35
W16
G40
W16
G29
W18
G35
W16
G27
W12
G28
W13
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.