Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 6:37PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 12:33 PM EDT (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1051 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Isolated showers through the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201810232300;;616950 FZUS53 KAPX 231451 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1051 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-232300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.58, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 231503
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1103 am edt Tue oct 23 2018

Update
Issued at 1053 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
main issue this morning is the ongoing lake effect rain and the
winds increasing over the marine areas. The rain looks like there
is a lull beginning as some of the rain showers in NW lower are
progressing south with nothing upstream forming on mrms. Upstream
in c upper, the 1000-850 mb winds are veering more to the north
and the rain bands are adjusting to this orientation. The hires
models show this as well, although based on the radar, the arw is
overdone on the precipitation. The other thing the models show us,
is the 850-700 mb synoptic moisture is beginning to dry as
expected. So will expect a diminishing of the rain bands through
the next 3-5 hours.

Winds over the nearshore will continue to be in the small craft
criteria, but will expect that winds will begin to diminish a bit,
especially if the latest arw and nmm models are showing more of a
veering and a slackening of the pressure graident. There is a
chance that the winds will let up sooner than expected.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 238 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
shortwave energy was digging down the backside of an upper trough,
resulting in lake enhanced rain showers across much of NW lower and
eastern upper michigan. This is behind a cold front that has pressed
through NRN michigan. Low level temperatures have obviously reached
sufficient levels for this to occur. H8 temps are down to -2c or so,
with 925mb temps at 1-2c. The gradient has tightened up behind the
front as well, and NW winds were already starting to gust in parts
of the western cwa. Further upstream, high pressure was centered in
srn manitoba with an axis stretched south into the plains.

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten up through today,
with low level temperatures continuing to drop to -6c to -8c in caa.

While all synoptic forcing will depart early this morning, we will
have sufficient moisture underneath an inversion between 5-6kft to
result in some light lake effect rains in NW flow regimes. There
will be some snow mixed in at interior locations of eastern upper
and the higher terrain of NRN lower, but with little to no
accumulation. Inversion heights do not come down too much heading
into tonight, but some of the better moisture does start to exit
east. Winds do come more out north and weaken as the aforementioned
high pressure slides into the western great lakes. This will push
what should be even lighter lake effect, with less coverage, into
mainly western chip mack counties of eastern upper and the gtv bay
region.

Colder today with highs in the lower half of the 40s with middle 40s
in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight as the winds drop
off, into the lower half of the 30s for most areas, upper 20s in
some interior spots away from the lake effect where there might be
some clearing.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 238 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis: Tuesday's mid-upper level troughing will continue
to shift east Tuesday evening with rising heights aloft becoming the
rule across the western great lakes through the midweek time frame.

Expansive area of high pressure is expected to nose into the region
Tuesday night, becoming centered overhead while slowly weakening
during the day Wednesday into Wednesday night. This feature will be
the driver to our sensible weather before a system ramps up across
the central plains later Thursday into Friday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: low temperatures Wednesday
night.

High pressure becoming situated overhead during the day Wednesday is
expected to lead to very quiet weather conditions across northern
michigan with partly to mostly sunny skies and light winds being the
rule. Continues to look like nearly ideal radiational cooling
conditions Wednesday night as much of the guidance suite suggests
mainly clear skies and light variable winds. Have bumped lows down a
few degrees (low-mid 20s) from blended guidance, especially across
the typically cooler interior locales... Warmer near the great lakes
shorelines.

A similar story anticipated for Thursday with mostly sunny morning
skies gradually featuring more cloud cover throughout the day. High
temperatures topping out a handful of degrees warmer than
Wednesday... Ranging through the mid 40s area-wide. While a select
few guidance members try to squeeze out a few showers across parts
of northern michigan late Thursday afternoon, the expectation is
that lingering deep layer dry air from departing high pressure will
win out as higher chances for precip hold off until Thursday night
and especially Friday.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 238 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
high impact weather potential... None.

Precipitation chances return to the forecast at various times
Thursday night into the upcoming weekend as upstream moisture and
associated shortwave rotate through the upper midwest. Guidance
becomes more murky for Saturday and Sunday as it struggles with the
interaction between system over the gulf and a deepening northern
stream cutoff low.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 633 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
cold advection through the day in a tightening pressure gradient
behind a departing cold front, will lead to scattered light lake
effect rain showers through the TAF period (mixed with a little snow
this morning and tonight), as well as gusty winds into this evening.

MVFR CIGS are expected, not sure as to whether it will be a
prevailing condition or periodic. Just expect periods of MVFR and
low endVFR. No vsby concerns. If there is a better shower that
moves in, it will be at tvc, and only brief and light reductions
possible.

Marine
Issued at 238 am edt Tue oct 23 2018
the pressure gradient has tightened behind the departure of a cold
front, and will continue to tighten through the day as cold
advection results in scattered light lake effect rain showers.

Winds pick up through the day and small craft advisories will
continue for all nearshore waters into tonight. High pressure
then settles in for Wednesday and Thursday with minimal no marine
concerns.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for lsz321.

Update... Jl
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WSLM4 19 mi33 min NW 20 40°F 48°F1021.1 hPa (+2.4)32°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi33 min NW 16 G 21 43°F 50°F1021.2 hPa (+2.3)31°F
45175 21 mi13 min NNE 14 G 21 44°F 53°F1021 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi53 min N 23 G 26 46°F 1022.7 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi53 min NW 12 G 18 42°F 1020.7 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi63 min NW 26 42°F 47°F34°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
W9
W7
G14
W13
G16
W11
G16
W7
G12
SW6
W4
SE6
SE4
SW2
W6
SW3
NW11
G16
NW13
G17
NW10
G17
NW15
G20
NW17
G24
NW14
G21
NW16
G20
NW12
G21
NW11
G21
NW16
G21
NW19
G24
NW16
G21
1 day
ago
W4
G8
SW5
G9
SW10
SW11
G15
W11
G17
SW7
G14
SW7
SW10
G14
SW7
G10
S7
S7
SW8
SW7
G10
SW8
SW8
SW8
G11
SW8
SW8
SW8
SW8
SW8
SW6
G9
SW7
SW7
G12
2 days
ago
N13
G19
N13
G19
NW17
G21
NW19
G27
N19
G25
NW14
G22
N18
G29
N19
G24
N14
G21
N11
G22
NW15
G19
NW14
G20
NW12
G20
NW12
G17
N9
G16
N11
G15
NW8
G15
NW5
G11
N10
G14
N9
NW4
N10
G13
N6
NW1
G6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi39 minNW 20 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy45°F36°F71%1021.6 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi38 minNW 14 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F34°F65%1021 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi38 minNW 14 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F35°F69%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hr--SW8W12
G20
W9SW6
G15
SW5W3SE3CalmE5N6SW3W4NW5NW8NW8NW10NW14
G21
NW15NW9NW14
G24
NW15
G24
NW18
G25
NW20
G27
1 day agoW6W6SW8
G15
W10
G17
W7
G15
SW7S5S4S4S5S4E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7
2 days agoN16NW12
G21
NW20
G35
NW22
G34
NW19
G29
NW18
G33
NW13
G24
NW17
G25
N17
G27
N16
G28
N13N11
G21
N9NW12NW9N8NW7N9SW3CalmCalmNW4NW5W11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.