Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:20PM Monday July 23, 2018 2:10 AM EDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:07PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1035 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers after midnight, then isolated showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201807231100;;904945 FZUS53 KAPX 230235 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1035 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-231100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.58, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 230356
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1156 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Update
Issued at 941 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018
showers continue to rotate back into NE lower mi, with coverage
decreasing as you head W and n. Some raindrops have still made it
as far west as tvc. Another push of precip into NE lower mi is
ongoing, and the hi-res near-term guidance suggests that one more
takes place between midnight and 2 am. After that, precip coverage
and amounts should decrease.

Convective mixing and precip loading associated with these
showers have contributed to some gusty winds, with a few 30-35mph
gusts earlier in the evening at osc apn sturgeon pt. These have
been relaxing a bit over the last hour or so.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Showers linger...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: slow moving stacked low pressure system
is centered over ohio, with a secondary strong short-wave impulse
and attending surface low rotating up through far southern ontario.

Moisture feed band of precip arcs off the atlantic and through new
england then back across southern quebec and ontario with the short-
wave and within a well defined deformation axis pivoting north of
the parent closed low.

Across our area, most areas are still enjoying a bit of a break in
the rainfall along with some sunshine in eastern upper and NW lower
michigan. But, short-wave and deformation forced showers is
spreading back into NE lower michigan, although coverage intensity
appears to have thinned.

Tonight: strong short-wave impulse and axis of deformation forcing
will continue to slide back into lower michigan before stalling and
weakening through tonight. This will continue to push showers into
the CWA over the next several hours. As mentioned, intial batch of
showers has thinned somewhat. But there is another round of better
organized showers back across southern ontario still to come.

Highest rain chances amounts anticipated across NE lower michigan.

Minimal instability with thunder possibilities also minimal if not
non-existent.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Rain showers still possible...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Looks like one more day of scattered
showers, and then a day of isolated showers as the 500 mb low begins
to fill on Monday, and a shortwave trough dives into the forecast
area associated with the next 500 mb low in northern manitoba. Of
course, the next 500 mb low will begin to cool the region down (see
the long term below) and put us into a more zonal pattern for a day
for a few days. The 500 mb low, as it sinks into the the northern
plains, forces a shortwave wave ridge over the upper great lakes in
the wake of the shortwave trough that lifted out Monday. Tuesday, the
rain moves back into NE lower as the moisture continues to remain
and the 500 mb shortwave moves through during peak heating. As the
mid level moisture moves out, the 500 mb shortwave trough moves
east, and we lose peak heating, Tuesday night should be dry.

Primary forecast concerns... Thunder concerns with the convection, as
the showers in NE lower could get a little beefy, but should remain
below severe criteria as the instability on the GFS and ECMWF show
showalter indices of 0 to -2c.

Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Rain showers off and on through the week...

extended (Wednesday through Sunday)... Wednesday should remain dry
during the day from the subsidence sandwiched between two 500 mb
shortwave troughs. Timing of the Thursday trough is off between the
gfs and ecmwf, but close enough to say that showers and
thunderstorms will be expected during the morning, then rain showers
from the upper caa. Thursday and Friday will be the cooling, coolest
days, before temperatures begin to warm on Saturday and Sunday.

Friday will also see a fair amount rain as well with the 500 mb low
dipping into the upper great lakes. More scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be expected as the low lifts out, but pinwheeling
shortwave troughs will move over the region through Sunday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1155 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018
ifr CIGS overnight apn, then improving toVFR.

Slow-moving low pressure is along the WV ky border, which a
secondary and weaker low over southern lk huron. Showers
drizzle low clouds continue to be thrown back into NE lower mi,
and at least a few of those showers will linger into much of
Monday. Ifr CIGS will prevail at apn, with some periods of MVFR
conditions possible at the other TAF sites, especially pln. Cigs
will improve during the day on Monday. However, may to watch for
stratus fog redevelopment Monday night.

Northerly breezes up to 12kt.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018
tonight through Tuesday... Winds will remain below small craft
criteria through the early part of the week as a coll in the
pressure pattern forms, and the gradient slackens over the upper
great lakes. This pattern will stay over the upper great lakes
through Tuesday night. This will leave the waves below small craft
criteria through the period as well.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Monday for lhz347-348.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 13 mi31 min E 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 69°F1 ft1014.2 hPa67°F
WSLM4 19 mi41 min NNE 15 70°F 68°F1013.8 hPa61°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi47 min E 7 G 8 67°F 1012.9 hPa67°F
45175 21 mi21 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 69°F1 ft1014 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi31 min E 2.9 G 7 66°F 1013.5 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi31 min N 11 G 15 66°F 1013.2 hPa
SRLM4 48 mi71 min 67°F 69°F62°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
NE7
NE8
NE5
NE8
NE6
G9
NE9
NE6
G9
E8
NE5
NE3
N7
G10
NE5
N5
N7
NE4
NE4
N13
N11
G14
N8
N11
G14
NE11
G14
NE7
G11
SE9
SE10
1 day
ago
E17
E17
G21
E17
E16
E12
E10
G13
E14
G17
E14
G18
E11
G14
E10
G13
E12
G15
E12
G15
E10
G13
E11
G14
E11
G14
E9
E10
E8
NE5
N12
N13
NE13
G16
NE12
G16
NE13
2 days
ago
S11
S11
S10
SE11
G17
SE6
E14
SE11
G14
E15
SE15
E14
G17
E14
G17
E16
E14
SE14
G18
SE13
SE11
E5
NE4
NE10
NE14
G18
E12
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi17 minNE 79.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1013 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi16 minENE 54.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1012.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi16 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F66°F98%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrNE6NE4N3NE6N5NE5E7E10NE4NE5NE8N11N10N7NE8N11
G17
N11N5N7NE11E6E5NE6NE7
1 day agoE5E6E6E7NE4NE8NE8E8E10E8NE7NE9NE9NE10E9E9E10NE8NE7NE6E4NE8NE8NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE7SE7SE8E10E11SE12
G20
E10
G19
SE11E11NE13
G19
NE9E8E7NE5NE3N5E4E5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.