Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cross Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:11PM Monday May 20, 2019 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 331 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Through early evening..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201905210345;;181655 FZUS53 KAPX 201931 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 331 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-210345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cross Village, MI
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location: 45.58, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201940
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
340 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Frost producing temperatures tonight...

high impact weather potential: frost expected tonight.

Pattern synopsis: rather progressive northern CONUS pattern out
there early this afternoon, with shortwave trough exiting off to our
east as sharp mid-level ridge axis builds into the upper mississippi
valley. Low clouds and drizzle associated with the former slowly on
there way out as aggressive drying begins to spread into northern
michigan. Overhead airmass is most definitely a chilly one, as
evident by freezing levels that are not too far off the deck and
surface temperatures struggling up into the 40s and 50s... With gusty
northwest winds making it feel even colder yet.

Progressive pattern continues right through tonight, with upstream
ridge axis further sharpening as it builds into the western great
lakes. Attendant elongated canadian originated surface high builds
directly overhead, continuing the clearing trend and setting us up
for more unseasonably cold conditions.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature trends and frost
potential.

Details: expect skies to continue to clear as that high settles
right overhead this evening. That alone sets the stage for an
aggressive nocturnal temperature response. Overnight lows last night
across the arrowhead of minnesota and southwest ontario dipped into
the upper 20s and lower 30s... Indicative of just how chilly this
airmass is. However, like previous forecaster mentioned, winds off
the deck remain borderline for full decoupling from the surface to
be realized, this despite overhead high pressure. Would think a bit
extra mixing would prevent temperatures from reaching some of the
colder readings seen in the statistical guidance. Still gotta
believe widespread lower to middle 30s will be realized across a
good portion of northern lower michigan... More than cold enough to
develop frost. Midnight forecaster had it set up nicely, already
issuing frost advisories for most of northern lower michigan. Those
will not be changed.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Warmer temperatures...

high impact weather potential... None.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops Wednesday.

Tuesday into Tuesday evening... High pressure over the area during
the day will slide off to the east Tuesday evening. This will lead
to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the
lower and mid 60s.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday... An upper level trough moving
through the northern plains northern mississippi valley will lead to
downstream isentropic ascent warm advection. This will increase rain
shower chances from southwest to northeast from late Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon. Lows in the lower and mid 40s. Highs
ranging from the mid and upper 50s across eastern upper to the 60s
across much of northern lower.

Wednesday night into Thursday... Perhaps a few leftover showers from
the departing trough, otherwise building upper level heights should
decrease rain chances. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Warmer
daytime temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid
70s.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Near to slightly above normal temperatures...

high impact weather potential: none expected.

Troughing along the west coast and ridging in the southeastern
states leads to nearly zonal flow aloft across the northern great
lakes. Disturbances periodically moving through the flow will bring
chances for showers Friday into early Saturday and again Monday.

Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal for a change.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 201 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
improving conditions expected across the TAF sites as we head
through the remainder of this afternoon into early evening. Expect
clear skies with no vis restrictions tonight into Tuesday morning.

Current gusty northwest winds expected to become light tonight.

Marine
Issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
gusty northwest winds will subside tonight as high pressure builds
overhead, ending the small craft advisory conditions. Light winds
continue Tuesday, with winds gradually increasing out of the east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional headlines are expected by
Wednesday on at least a few nearshore waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Tuesday for miz016>018-
020>035-099.

Lh... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz347-348.

Lm... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Near term... mb
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 13 mi25 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 38°F2 ft1018.6 hPa37°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 20 mi35 min NW 13 G 19 49°F 45°F1017.2 hPa
45175 21 mi26 min SW 14 G 16 48°F 44°F2 ft1017 hPa36°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi25 min NNW 15 G 21 52°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Last
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E19
G23
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G15
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E21
G27
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G24
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E8
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G21
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G16
NE12
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G22
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2 days
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W10
G15
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G13
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G10
W5
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G6
N6
G9
W1
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G14
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G15
E14
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G16
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G21
E23
SE23

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI11 mi2.2 hrsNW 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F37°F53%1016.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI12 mi70 minNNW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F35°F53%1016.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi69 minNNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F37°F69%1019 hPa

Wind History from PLN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E10SE7E7E6
G15
E6E5E4CalmN4NW9W4W6W7N6N7NW7N10N10N13
G23
N13N14
G24
--NW15
G21
1 day agoE9E13
G17
E10NE6NE9E15
G28
E6E7E10E12
G20
E9E12
G22
E14
G22
E10
G22
E10E12
G20
E12
G20
E12E12
G20
E13
G23
E7
G16
E13
G20
E12E10
2 days agoN8
G18
NW10N9NW9NW8NW7CalmN4CalmCalmSW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE8SE5E6NE8E6E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.