Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 9:36PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:18 PM EDT (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 836 Am Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt this afternoon. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tonight..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. Occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt this evening. Showers and Thunderstorms especially in the evening. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ362 Expires:201706282145;;952884 FZUS63 KLOT 281336 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 836 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.4 inches over the eastern Dakotas will move east across the Upper Mississippi Valley by this evening...then will fill slightly to 29.6 inches as it moves to the northern Lakes by Thursday morning. The low will drag a cold front across the lake and into the Central Plains...where another low of 29.6 inches will develop Thursday night...before moving across central or northern Lake Michigan by late Friday. This low will then slowly deepen as it moves into eastern Ontario Saturday with the trailing cold front moving south of the lake. Weak high pressure of 29.9 inches will spread across the lake Sunday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-282145-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 281909
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
309 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Update
Issued at 1144 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
convoluted pattern across the region this morning. Well defined
short wave trough is crossing the central northern plains with
attendant surface low pressure pushing into minnesota. Warm front
arcs southeastward through wisconsin and down through the ohio
valley. Strong low level flow across the midwest has pulled a
rather tight theta-e axis into the midwest and now advancing into
the western great lakes... As evidenced by quickly developing
advancing thin line of showers and a few storms through E ne
wisconsin this morning. Further back to the west... Diminishing
batch of showers storms from the overnight hours is advancing into
the upper midwest with a couple distinct convectively induced
vorticity centers noted within larger scale mosaic radar pattern.

Primary forecast concerns remain focused on precip evolution timing
amounts through tonight. Downstream airmass across michigan is
somewhat dry and stable for the moment although upstream
theta-e instability axis will get quickly advected into the far
western lakes region by late day heading into the evening. Have
to believe that the aforementioned upstream mvc's will be able to
swing some more widespread showers a few storms up into and
through northern michigan later in the day and this evening. Will
have to see how things unfold (as always) but for now... Have
lower pops spreading into the region in the early going as this
initial line of showers tries to push into the region... Beefier
rain chances later in the afternoon tonight.

Severe weather threat... Current SPC day1 marginal risk really
focuses back behind this initial batch of precip... With
heating destabilization through the afternoon and additional
thunderstorm development. Marginal risk into parts of michigan is
rather broad... Reflecting a fair amount of uncertainty in
convective trends. But our best shot for thunderstorms is probably
late afternoon and this evening as instability axis finally gets
pulled into the region. Rather strong winds aloft (40 to 50 knots)
could support a marginal risk for severe... Provided we have the
instability.

Excessive rainfall threat... Again it all depends on how things
evolve. But given upstream rainfall trends amounts thus far... Am
less than impressed. Unless precip can really get going later
today and persist through tonight... I'm not too concerned with
heavy flooding rains... Yet.

Update issued at 654 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
not much to update for at the moment. The ECMWF qpf still seems to
be the best handling the system in the upper mississippi valley.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 325 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Heavy rain to fall late this afternoon and tonight...

high impact weather potential... Marginal risk of severe storms, and
a slight risk excessive rain of exceeding flash flood guidance.

Pattern synopsis forecast... All the models start with the sfc low
coming out of the N plains this morning, and heading into the upper
mississippi valley upper great lakes by the evening. This sets up a
strong baroclinic zone warm front with strong 850 mb LLJ (40-50 kt)
by the afternoon and begins the impetus of the heavy rain that we
have been advertising. However, the details are a little murkier
this model run as the NAM and GFS have brought the QPF bull's south
into N lower while the ECMWF is still in E upper and the hiresw
models are toward the tip of the mitt. Overnight, the sfc low moves
into southern lake superior, with most of the rain focused along the
warm front, which looks to be north of lake huron in ontario by
12z thu.

Primary forecast concerns... With the right curve of the QPF from the
nam and gfs, the main concern is that the heavy rain could be
anywhere in the forecast area. Considering that the hires models and
the ECMWF are still in the same basic area as they were from the 12z
model runs, would believe that a bit more. It is interesting to note
that the 00z ECMWF shows a configuration in the QPF as the ongoing
radar out in the plains. So if the ECMWF is right then the rain,
while heavy will be progressive and pushes out quickly enough before
we reach flash flood guidance. Also with the wpc excessive rainfall
discussion with only a 5-10% chance of reaching FFG (slight risk)
will, at this time, hold off from issuing any flood watches.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 325 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Another round of substantial rain Friday-Friday night??...

high impact weather potential... Potential for additional substantial
rainfall across a portion of northern michigan Friday into Friday
night. Some thunderstorms also possible.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Northern michigan will briefly be in the
warm sector Thursday morning while the surface low moves across
eastern lake superior into ontario. An ill-defined trailing cold
front will make little southward progress and become more zonally
oriented through the day, stretching from drummond island down into
iowa. Shower chances expected to gradually diminish through the
morning into early afternoon across northern mi as drier air
encroaches from the west with the approach of a building upper
ridge. However, scattered showers may linger longer over eastern
upper, closer to the low. Attention then shifts to iowa where
another developing low will ride northeast along the front into
michigan on Friday.

The 28.00z model run has created far more questions than answers
with regard to Friday's system, but it does look like there will be
potential for some additional widespread decent rainfall across a
portion of northern michigan. The track of this system is the
biggest factor in question, but expect it will be somewhere through
northern lower or eastern upper. Dynamics and thermodynamics are
very much in question, though it appears a developing LLJ will allow
favorable moisture transport to nose into northern mi Friday
afternoon evening with pwats likely in excess of 1.5". Instability
will largely depend on the track of this system, but as of now it
appears there will be enough to support some thunderstorm activity.

Given the considerable uncertainties with this system, it's
premature to speculate about potential rainfall amounts. For
instance, GEFS qpf plumes for kapx show spread anywhere from 0.25"
to 2" Friday afternoon through Friday night. Will have to wait for
subsequent model runs later today for (hopefully) more clarity and
watch where tonight's heaviest rainfall materializes to gauge any
potential impacts from additional rainfall Friday night.

Expect cloud cover to be more extensive across the northern part of
our forecast area on Thursday, which (along with any lingering
showers) will keep temperatures in the 60s north of the straits.

Skies will become partly cloudy over northern lower, where
temperatures will rise through the 70s, even flirt with 80 near
saginaw bay. Friday's readings will be similar.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 325 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal. A thunderstorm or two
possible on Saturday.

Longwave troughing aloft will sit over the upper great lakes through
the weekend with a couple shortwaves rotating across northern
michigan. This will allow for additional diurnal showers (and
possibly a storm or two) on Saturday, but drier air filtering into
the region Saturday night into Sunday should allow for mostly dry
conditions the latter half of the weekend... Aside from perhaps a
stray shower or two. Surface high pressure and a building upper
ridge looks to provide a period of quiet weather across northern
michigan for Monday and independence day, though the more active
weather will be found just to our south downstate. And to add to
that good news (for those craving more summerlike temperatures), a
subtle warming trend looks to be on tap through the first half of
the week with highs around normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 309 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017
vfr conditions linger across northern michigan for the moment.

Initial line of showers is making progress through NW lower
michigan and will cross the region over the next few hours. Brief
showers and some lowering of CIGS (vfr) can be expected. More
widespread rainfall is back across central eastern wisconsin along
and ahead of advancing short wave trough that will swing through
the region over the next several hours. More widespread rainfall
will spread into the region late this afternoon into this evening
and eventually bring MVFR CIGS to the terminal sites as we go
through the evening... Lingering into Thursday morning. Some
thunder is possible through the course of the night.

On Thursday... Upstream low pressure system slips through lake
superior kicking cold occluded front through northern michigan
early on... Followed by a dry punch of air sliding through northern
lower michigan along the southern fringe of the low. This will
kick the batch of rain out of northern lower michigan during the
morning hours with CIGS improving toVFR heading into the
afternoon. Possible we might see some showers bubble up across ne
lower michigan during the afternoon... If enough low level
moisture lingers.

Marine
Issued at 325 am edt Wed jun 28 2017
today through Thursday night... As an area of low pressure migrates
from the northern plains to the upper great lakes tonight, the
gradient is expected to tighten up and produce small craft winds
and waves later this morning and into the night. Winds should
begin to diminish as the low moves north of the up, and gradient
relaxes again. High pressure settles into the upper great lakes
and the winds remain below small craft thresholds through Thursday
night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Thursday morning for miz020-025-
031.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt Thursday
for lhz346-347.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt Thursday
for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for lsz321.

Update... Tba
near term... Jsl
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Tba
marine... Jsl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 26 mi39 min SSW 9.9 G 19 66°F 1011.9 hPa
45022 27 mi29 min S 12 G 16 69°F 62°F1 ft1012.8 hPa55°F
WSLM4 28 mi79 min SSE 22 68°F 60°F1012.1 hPa (-2.2)49°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi49 min SSW 8 G 11 60°F 1010.1 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi39 min ESE 7 G 8 64°F 1010.5 hPa
45175 44 mi29 min SW 9.7 G 14 70°F 62°F1 ft1012 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi49 min S 11 G 14 73°F 1011 hPa42°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi89 min S 19 G 23 59°F 53°F4 ft1010.5 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi37 minS 6 G 1810.00 miOvercast70°F55°F60%1011.2 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi24 minS 10 G 1810.00 miLight Rain68°F56°F67%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4N6N6NW6NW6NW5NW5NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW6NW5W4W6SW4SW6SW8
2 days agoW9SW8SW10W6W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmNW3N6N3CalmNW4NW6W6W4W6W4W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.