Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:06PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:13AMMoonset 10:26PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 307 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 30 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Tonight..Northeast winds to 30 kt with occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers this evening... Then chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain and slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Rain likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ362 Expires:201703310315;;328534 FZUS63 KLOT 302007 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 307 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES DEVELOPS ACROSS MANITOBA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY TO 29.5 INCHES AS IT PASSES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW OF 29.5 INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES TUESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-310315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 302319
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
719 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Wintry mix tonight...

high impact weather potential... Wet snow accumulations tonight
across NE lower michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Parent stacked/occluding low pressure
system now over SW missouri with a warm front stretching eastward
through the ohio valley. Surface high pressure sits over quebec
and noses down into the great lakes lakes and maintaining
relatively dry low level easterly flow. A bit of a coupled upper
jet structure across lower michigan with a jet core stretching
across ontario/quebec and another core punching up into the
midwest along the eastern fringe of the closed low.

Precipitation has been most persistent across central and
southern lower michigan today well north of the surface warm
front... Along the tight low-mid level thermal gradient and strong
deformation axis... Coupled with the aforementioned upper jet
coupling/forcing. Precipitation has been far more spotty across
northern lower michigan with that dry easterly flow in
play... Although is has filled in over the SW parts of the CWA just
in the last hour or two. But lack of precip has allowed temps to
handily warm into the 40s for many areas.

Tonight: upper jet divergence max/associated batch of more
widespread precip now lifting through the chicago area still
looking to slide up through the SE half of the CWA primarily this
evening. Biggest forecast challenge of course is p-type. As
mentioned... Surface temps have warmed into the 40s for many areas.

But... Surface dewpoints are still in the upper 20s with quite a
bit of room for evap cooling as this next batch of precip slides
on through. So... I believe bulk of precip will be a rain-snow mix
or just flat out wet snow particularly into the higher terrain
areas... With a couple inches of wet snow accumulation possible. At
this juncture I don't think this is going to rise into winter
weather advisory territory. Evening shift will of course need to
keep an eye on it.

Friday: precip winds down through the day as this system tracks
into the eastern lakes and drier air begins to press into region
late in the day. Perhaps a bit of a light mix early on... But
temps will warm into the mid and upper 30s by late morning.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Pleasant weekend weather...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Upper level cutoff low over the upper
ohio valley Friday evening will advance to the east coast by
daybreak Saturday. A weak shortwave will cut across northern
michigan Saturday afternoon/evening as a weak cold front drops south
across the area, but otherwise high pressure will gradually build in
at the surface and aloft through the weekend. WAA will increasingly
take hold beginning Sunday afternoon as the surface high drifts
east, causing winds to become southeasterly. Highs will range from
the 40s to low 50s Saturday and from the 40s to mid 50s Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns... Synoptic and hi-res models show just a
few lingering rain showers over northeast lower Friday evening.

Otherwise the encroaching drier air should ensure a dry weekend,
despite even the shortwave and frontal passage. These features will,
however, lead to an increase in cloud cover from the north Saturday
afternoon/evening, followed by an increase in mid/high clouds during
the day Sunday ahead of the next approaching system for Sunday
night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
fairly progressive northern stream wave is expected to be toeing the
u.S./canada border near international falls by Sunday evening, which
may spread scattered showers across the area Sunday night. Next week
- a fairly active storm track looks to be setting up across the
conus with several waves diving into the four-corners region before
ejecting lee of the rockies. Plenty of guidance spread in the day 5-
8 timeframe to warrant much in the way of details, but worth
monitoring for several wet (perhaps more wintry late next week?)
systems to work their way through the heart of the country.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 719 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
widespread precip and low MVFR/ifr conditions will continue to
impact all northern lower michigan TAF sites thru much of
tonight along the northern periphery of deep moisture associated
with low pressure tracking thru the ohio valley. Precip will be
mainly rain around tvc and mbl tonight and Friday... And mainly
snow for apn and pln thru late Friday morning before becoming all
rain for the rest of the day. Precip will gradually diminish from
west to east late tonight and Friday as low pressure and
associated deep moisture slowly exit eastward away from michigan.

E/ne winds will continue go gust to 15 to 25 kts thru the taf
forecast period.

Marine
Issued at 324 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
low pressure will track through the lower great lakes region
tonight into Friday. This will maintain gusty easterly winds
through Friday and small craft winds/waves for much of the
nearshore areas. Winds weaken and back more northeasterly then
northerly Friday night into Saturday.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lmz341.

Ls... None.

Near term... Tba
short term... Mek
long term... Mjg/berger
aviation... Mlr
marine... Tba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 26 mi51 min E 7 G 11 32°F 1014.2 hPa
WSLM4 28 mi31 min E 29 35°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.2)23°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi43 min E 16 G 20 35°F 1013.6 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi31 min 37°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi43 min ESE 21 G 26 34°F 1014.5 hPa26°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi34 minE 17 G 2310.00 miOvercast33°F30°F91%1014.2 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi37 minE 70.75 miLight Snow33°F32°F100%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE6NE6NE5E4E4E7E7E7NE7E6E9E9NE6E8E9E8
2 days agoNW4NW3CalmNW3NW3N3N4N3N3CalmN3NE4NE3E4N4NE4NW8NW7NW6W5W3W6W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.