Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:37 AM   Moonset 11:44 AM

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LMZ362 Expires:202405012115;;433738 Fzus63 Kmkx 011345 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 845 am cdt Wed may 1 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
gusty southwest to west winds today will gradually diminish this evening, as high pressure of 30.6 inches moves into and across the lake. Winds will then turn easterly and increase on Thursday, as low pressure of 29.7 inches lifts from kansas into southwestern wisconsin. That low will weaken and lift north into canada on Friday, with high pressure briefly building into the region.
another area of low pressure, averaging 29.8 inches, will lift into the region on Saturday. A brief period of gusty north winds is expected Sunday morning as the low moves east and high pressure of 30.2 inches builds in from the west.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-012115- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 845 am cdt Wed may 1 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of today - South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Tonight - West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Friday - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 kt veering to northwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 011352 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 952 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this afternoon/evening.

- Occasional rain chances into the weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 949 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers continue to quickly exit off to the east this morning with increasing sun and rebounding temperatures already underway...
most notably across northern lower. Just some generally minor tweaks to pops and cloud cover through the day. Otherwise, the inherited forecast remains in good shape. For further details, see the short term forecast section below.



SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern/synopsis: Another occluded surface low is seen upstream, over northern MN. A triple-point is over w central WI, with the warm front extending toward southern Lake MI and far sw lower MI. This low will fill as it moves east, over and east of Lk Superior today. Trailing the low, high pressure builds toward upper and central lower MI tonight.

Forecast: A band of rain showers is advancing into northern MI this morning. Precip that has reached nw lower MI is (and will remain) on the light side. A more substantial slug of rain is heading toward upper MI. On the back edge of this precip band, a few lightning strikes have been occurring, especially near MNM.
Though instability decreases with eastward extent, it isn't quite zero here (up to 200j/kg). May mention some isolated morning thunder in the west. Total rainfall amounts thru this morning will range from about 0.25" in eastern upper MI, to circa 0.15" in the tip of the mitt, to 0.10" or less further south.

Highest pops will be this morning. This afternoon, most of northern lower MI is dry; perhaps far northern lower could still see a stray shower. A better chance for showers lasts in eastern upper MI, with even a slight chance into early tonight. Partial clearing occurs this afternoon south of M-32, which will allow for warm temps there. Highs in the south half from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Mid 50s to mid 60s in the north.

Fire wx issues: breezy to windy wnw winds this afternoon, and warm temps. Rh values are presently progged to lower close to 30 percent near Saginaw Bay...which is also one part of the forecast area progged to see the least QPF. Elevated fire danger will be mentioned for HTL-Mio-Harrisville and points se.

Tonight...relatively cloudy skies persist in the north. In the south, partial cloud cover starts to increase again late ahead of our next system. Any precip likely waits until Thursday. Min temps mainly within a few degrees of 40f.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough and sfc low track to the west of northern Michigan Thursday, cold front to follow on Friday as system advects north- northeastward. Rain showers expected as a result with some embedded/isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Another quick hitting disturbance is progged to move across the region this weekend with some more showery activity. Heights begin to build early next week in response to another upper trough moving across the middle portions of the country.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Currently in a pattern that facilitates rain chances every couple/few days it seems, which will continue through this weekend at the very least. Low pressure system will track to the west of N MI Thursday into Friday, resulting in warm, moist advection and thus the chance for rain showers. Guidance suggests the best zone of precip will be west of I-75, but most locations should get in on the action heading into Friday as the frontal boundary focuses additional showers. Couple models suggesting elevated instability resulting in some embedded thunderstorm activity Thursday evening into early Friday, but others are quite warm aloft and thus are not as impressive. Nevertheless, at least some chance exists for elevated embedded convection Thursday night and then isolated thunderstorms Friday. All in all, some areas could see some beneficial, wetting rains.

Next piece of energy aloft will move through this weekend resulting in additional rain chances, although looking light for the most part. A somewhat more impactful system will have to be monitored for early-mid next week as a deeper upper low/sfc low pressure system moves into the central CONUS and then eastward in some fashion.
Couple ensembles hint at non zero CAPE values so that's what the we'll be watching for in the coming days, but really a much too far look into the future for any sort of elaboration. During this entire period, daytime high temperatures likely remain in the 60s and 70s for much of the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Band of showers will work across the area today, as low pressure moves east across Lk Superior. Precip will end in northern lower MI by midday, though CIU will see rain into this afternoon.
Periods of MVFR cigs expected at all sites but mbL today. CIU will likely be IFR at times, this afternoon thru tonight. PLN will be primarily MVFR tonight.

Se to s winds will veer west into and thru the afternoon, and become gustier. Winds weaken tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344>346.

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