Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:04PM Friday November 16, 2018 5:04 PM EST (22:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 245 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of rain this evening, then chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of snow and rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Snow showers likely in the morning, then chance of snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
LMZ362 Expires:201811170430;;407265 FZUS63 KMKX 162045 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 245 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure of 29.6 inches will exit Quebec tonight. A cold front will drop through the region overnight as low pressure of 29.9 inches moves from the Central Plains into Missouri. Brisk north winds are expected on Saturday. High pressure of 30.6 inches will then move into the Dakotas Saturday and to Kansas on Sunday. Brisk westerly winds should develop later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak low pressure of 30.0 inches will then move from the Dakotas through the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday. High pressure of 30.4 inches will return to the Lake Michigan area on Tuesday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-170430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161957
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
257 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 256 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Light lake effect snow tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Low pressure is just south of james bay, and continues to move ne
away from mi. Cold advection continues on brisk W to NW winds. The
low levels are quite moist, and cloud cover is extensive. Precip is
much less so, with lake effect bands most prominent off of
superior into central eastern upper, and just a few convective
elements poking into NW N central lower mi.

A shortwave trof aloft will dig toward the upper ms valley
overnight. A weak surface reflection will move from the central
plains toward the mid ms valley. The latest guidance has resulted
in a southward shift in the snow swath associated with this
system. That will make it more difficult for us to see a
substantial lake enhanced response; we are too far displaced from
the better moisture forcing, which is itself weakening as it heads
for far southern lake mi late tonight. With that in mind, and in
agreement with most guidance, have decreased pops somewhat
overnight in NW lower mi.

But we are still cold advecting, with 850mb temps losing 2-3c
tonight (ranging from -10c south to -14c far north by daybreak
Saturday). Our ongoing wnw fetch will slowly veer a bit more to the
nw during the night. The lack of moisture and lift above the lowest
5k ft of the atmosphere will limit coverage and intensity, but do
still expect lake effect snow showers in the appropriate snowbelts.

There is still a window for some drizzle activity in northern lower
mi for the rest of the afternoon, before continued cooling makes
that less likely. The most widespread lake effect activity will
be in eastern upper mi tonight, and some local 1-2 inch accums are
expected. Coverage will be lower in NW N central lower (though
will increase a touch very late tonight), with accums an inch or
less.

Min temps won't get a chance to fall too far thanks to cloud cover.

Lows will be mainly in the 20s.

Note that fire wx forecasts have concluded for the season.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 256 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
high impact weather potential: lake enhanced snow showers Saturday,
most numerous across the grand traverse bay region. Another round of
accumulating snow possible Monday, although confidence remains low
at this time.

Pattern synopsis: broad troughing is expected to be evident across
much of the CONUS to start the forecast period early Saturday
morning with the only exception across the pac NW ca as upper level
ridging continues to build across those areas. Focus across northern
michigan revolves around a shortwave currently over southern
alberta manitoba that's expected to quickly race east-southeastward
toward the great lakes overnight into the day Saturday. While the
bulk of moisture associated with this wave will remain to our south,
lake enhanced snow showers are expected to be common across parts of
northwest lower eastern upper michigan as a result. By Saturday
evening, expansive area of surface high pressure will push into the
region from the west, resulting in rather tranquil conditions
through the remainder of the weekend (although a few lake induced
light snow showers may dot the map at various times).

Early next week, another shortwave clipper exiting out alberta and
attendant developing area of low pressure are expected to trek
across the area... Potentially increasing snow chances once again as
we start the thanksgiving holiday week, although guidance members
and run-to-run inconsistencies yields low confidence in once
solution over another at this point.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and snow amounts through
the forecast period.

By early Saturday morning, aforementioned shortwave trough axis is
expected to be situated in the vicinity of eastern wisconsin with
the steadiest precipitation across southeastern wi northern il,
gradually spreading eastward into downstate mi. Given a bit of
synoptic support extending further north combined with h8 temps
falling to around -11 c yielding plenty of lake induced instability
(delta TS near 20 c given lake michigan surface temps ranging from
+7 to 11 c), lake enhanced snow showers are expected to be common,
especially across the grand traverse bay region west of us-131 and
in portions of western chip mack counties given a predominately nnw
flow... Although lighter less frequent snow showers certainly
possible further east. While the brunt of accumulation with the
system will likely be focused to our south and west, an inch or so
of new accumulation near and west of gtv bay seems feasible with
less than an inch elsewhere.

High pressure encroaching from the west will bring much drier air
into the region Saturday afternoon evening, ultimately resulting in
decreased snow shower intensity and coverage. Any lingering light
lake induced snow shower activity will gradually refocus across the
typical west and even west-southwesterly lake belts as low-level
winds gradually back that direction through the overnight hours into
Sunday morning. Lingering snow showers will likely be the exception
rather than the rule, but certainly could still see some snowflakes
flying across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper through
this time frame.

By early Monday, attention shifts to another incoming shortwave and
developing area of low pressure across the upper mississippi
valley northern great lakes. Low confidence prevails at this
juncture given guidance differences and lack of run-to-run model
consistency; however, the threat for more accumulating snow can't be
ruled out for the start of a busy holiday travel week.

High temperatures through the forecast period ranging from the mid
20s to lower 30s across northern michigan with overnight lows in the
chilly teens and low 20s.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 256 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

A rather quiet stretch of weather looks to be on tap for the
remainder of the holiday week, except one fly in the ointment
Tuesday night-Wednesday as another clipper system races through
southern canada... Perhaps impacts portions of northern michigan with
a round of mainly light snow. Beyond that, at least a brief warm up
to near or even slightly above normal temperatures looks possible
for thanksgiving (and perhaps beyond).

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1237 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
low pressure north of georgian bay will continue to move off to
the NE thru tonight. Widespread snow is ending, though low level
moisture will remain abundant, resulting in patchy light snow and
drizzle for the rest of the day. A weak low pressure system will
push into the northern oh valley by Sat morning. Most of the
associated snowfall will be to our south, but lake effect snow
showers in the tvc mbl area will increase somewhat late tonight
into Saturday.

Nw winds will become somewhat gustier this afternoon, then weaken
again tonight.

Marine
Issued at 256 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
nw winds are getting blustery this afternoon, behind departing low
pressure. Advisories are in effect for all waters into tonight,
though winds waves will tend to subside by late tonight as the low
moves further away.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lhz345-346-349.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Saturday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm est Saturday for lsz321.

Near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 26 mi24 min NW 18 G 23 40°F 1011.2 hPa
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi34 min WNW 14 G 18 33°F 40°F1009.7 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi34 min NW 7 G 14 34°F 1008.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi34 min NW 18 G 26 37°F 39°F1008.7 hPa35°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi67 minWNW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast36°F31°F84%1009.1 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi69 minWNW 15 G 2310.00 miOvercast39°F31°F75%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE5S5S4S3S4SW4S4CalmSE4S5S4S4SW5W9W5W7W6W8W12
G15
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmSE3S4CalmS3S4S8S5S6S5S7S5S5S3S5S9
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2 days agoW10
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W9W7
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NW7NW7NW6NW5CalmW5W4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.