Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 3:48 AM   Moonset 3:46 PM

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LMZ362 Expires:202405040930;;578045 Fzus63 Kmkx 040122 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 822 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light east winds will prevail tonight as low pressure of 29.8 inches approaches iowa. Moisture will increase heading into tomorrow ahead of a frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Some showers and storms are possible in the afternoon with the passage of the front. Following the cold front, winds will turn westerly and could become breezy Saturday night into Sunday as a 30.1 high pressure moves into minnesota. On Sunday wind will weaken as the high moves over the lake, then they will become easterly Monday as the high pressure departs.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-040930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 822 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 040339 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1139 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and mild weather through Saturday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night.

- Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will lift across Ontario today as the parent mid/upper-level low pivots toward Hudson Bay tonight. The associated surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario and over Hudson Bay by late tonight/early Saturday morning. A cold front extending southeast of the system center will keep pushing east of the area this afternoon and evening, leaving relatively high pressure in place through Saturday.

Forecast Details:

Quiet and mild weather through Saturday -- Remaining showers will end this afternoon as the aforementioned front continues to slide out of northern Michigan, leaving sunny skies in place for the remainder of the day. Clear/sunny skies will stay in place through Saturday morning, promoting efficient radiational cooling overnight to drop temperatures well into the 40s -- and even upper 30s across typical interior cold spots. Southerly flow will strengthen through the morning, bringing warm/moist air northward to help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 70s for areas of northern lower Michigan away from the lakeshores. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are anticipated across the eastern U.P. and those close to the lakes.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Longwave troughing currently spanned across North America with embedded height disturbances keep weather mild and active at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period.
Midlevel low pressure with attached troughing currently over the central CONUS/Canadian boarder and over the Alaskan Bay will be the main two sources of energy for the Great Lakes region this weekend and next week.

The first trough over the central CONUS will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay and pushing a shortwave trough through the Great Lakes region by Saturday evening. A cold front will proceed to deliver convective driven showers with the chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Attention switches focus on Tuesday when the second trough makes it way to the Northern Rockies and stalls over the region for the remainder of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night: A weak cold front will deliver a line of showers to the CWA Saturday night with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible. Weak convection tied to the line will have no severe threat associated with the system, but areas across northern Michigan can expect a soaking of rain as QPF amounts remain around a general tenth or two. Higher amounts of liquid remain possible as more convective showers could produce some higher totals but no overall impactful weather is expected.

Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms: Sunday and Monday remain dry as midlevel shortwave ridging pushes quiet weather into the Great Lakes region. Low dew points do raise concern for potential fire weather conditions, especially this Monday, but weaker winds keep the conditions questionable ahead of aformentioned midlevel low pressure returning showers and storms this Tuesday. Current guidance is depicting favorable conditions of strong thunderstorms as dewpoints push themselves into the upper 50s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of cold front. To early to determine severity of this line, but will continue to monitor this feature with later model runs.

Midlevel low pressure/troughing will stall over the northern plains the remainder of the forecast period, continuing lingering showers at times across the Great Lakes region for the rest of the work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

IFR producing fog and low clouds to impact KAPN (and perhaps KCIU) through early this morning. Any low clouds/fog/mist should burn off quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected, with just some increasing high and mid level clouds during the day. Next round of lower cigs and increasing shower chances returns from the west this evening. No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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