Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 9:19PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:14 AM EDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:11AMMoonset 1:07PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Expires:201905271530;;531051 Fzus63 Kmkx 270735 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 235 Am Cdt Mon May 27 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.1 inches will slowly move to the east of lake michigan this morning. Modest east to northeast winds will then develop as a warm front approaches from the south and low pressure of 29.3 inches develops over the central high plains. The low will then shift across southern wisconsin into lower michigan tonight into Tuesday. As the low approaches it will turn winds in the southern portion of the lake to the southeast or south while winds in the northern half of the lake remain largely east or northeast. As the low shifts into lower michigan and the eastern lakes Tuesday, winds lake wide will become northerly. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-271530- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 235 am cdt Mon may 27 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southwest. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 kt backing to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 271011
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
611 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 331 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Increasing chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms...

high impact weather potential... A few embedded thunderstorms late
this evening and overnight across northern lower michigan...

producing brief heavy rain and lighting.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of high pressure centered
over southern canada continues to provide most of the great lakes
region with dry wx and mainly clear skies early this morning.

Meanwhile... Low pressure is developing over the central plains with
an associated stationary front extending eastward thru the mid
mississippi valley and along the ohio valley. Several areas of
convection have developed around and ahead of this system...

including a large bowing segment sweeping thru kansas attm.

For today into tonight... Eastern edge of increasing mid high clouds
will continue to make eastward progress into our cwa. Weak
stationary front hanging over northern michigan will provide a small
chance of light rain showers across eastern upper michigan during
the morning. Better chances of showers will develop from west to
east across our entire CWA this afternoon and tonight as deeper
upstream moisture arrives ahead of the low center as it moves into
wisconsin by this evening. Instability will remain insufficient for
thunder development today into early this evening. Northern edge of
the instability axis will poke into northern lower michigan later
this evening and overnight. Increasing instability combined with
deep moisture will lend to some embedded thunder development within
the widespread shower activity during this time frame. Wind fields
will remain too weak for any chance of strong severe storms.

With increasing clouds and chances of precip... Temps will remain
relatively cool today. Afternoon highs will range form the low to
mid 50s across eastern upper michigan to the upper 60s to near 70 in
our SW cwa. Low temps tonight will cool back into the 40s to near 50
degrees.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 331 am edt Mon may 27 2019
synopsis: persistent troughing out west and southeast ridging will
continue the next couple days. This pattern will be conducive for a
series of ridge-runner type systems which could give portions of
michigan (mainly southern) some heavy rain. A cut-off low digging
into southern california will move across the four corners region
before ejecting into the central plains Tuesday. Its attendant
surface low spinning up in the plains will push a warm front toward
southern michigan Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will be fighting
against surface high pressure slowly sliding by to our north.

High impact weather potential: rain & possible thunderstorms
details challenges: Tuesday morning we'll be under fairly zonal flow
aloft before the four corners low starts its trek toward the region.

The warm front should set up near the ohio michigan border with some
uncertainty as to just how far north this front gets. Pwats just
above an inch will be hovering just south of the CWA border through
the day. With negligible cape, marginal lapse rates, and the low
level instability gradient remaining south of our area, thunder
chances Tuesday looks low, but can't be ruled out. Transient high
pressure and associated subsidence will lead to a brief dry period
late Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. High temperatures
Tuesday look to be in the low 60s with the cloud cover rain and nne
winds. The front tries to make more northward progress into michigan
starting Wednesday morning as the main surface low pushes into the
mid-mississippi valley. Moisture surges slightly more northward
compared to Tuesday, and pwats climb to around 1.25". Overall
synoptic support is weak over the area with the upper level low
beginning to fill in and pieces of energy getting sheared off it
into the low over hudson bay. Thunder potential is similar to
Tuesday's, low but still possible. High temperatures Wednesday look
to be a bit warmer than Tuesday, with generally southerly winds.

Tuesday & Wednesday's combined QPF looks low for now, but this may
need to be assessed later with respect to potential MCS strength and
longevity.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 331 am edt Mon may 27 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
primary forecast concerns challenges: multiple rain chances
Thursday into Friday the hudson bay low captures the former plains
low and the whole system starts swinging toward new england.

Shortwave energy rotating through this flow combined with the front
still likely hanging around will create chance pops for Thursday,
especially earlier in the day. Friday may be the one precip-free
day, before another front sweeps across the area late Saturday,
bringing more rain chances for the weekend. May ends with slightly
below normal temperatures across the area, which continues the trend
we've seen through much of this spring season.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 611 am edt Mon may 27 2019
low pressure will lift NE out of the central plains and thru lower
michigan over the next 24 hours. Widespread showers will develop
this afternoon and tonight as this system slides thru the region.

A few embedded thunderstorms will also develop later this evening
and tonight... But any storms that do develop should remain below
severe limits. Llws will also develop tonight... Mainly around tvc
and mbl. Surface winds will be from the E SE at around 10 kts
today and will then strengthen to 10 to 20 kts tonight with some
higher gusts possible.

Marine
Issued at 331 am edt Mon may 27 2019
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday
night. There may be a few hours tonight when conditions approach sca
criteria. Low pressure will lift NE out of the central plains and
into the western great lakes region today and tonight... Resulting in
the production of widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across much of our nearshore areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 27 mi34 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 40°F1 ft1020.8 hPa41°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi62 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 53°F1019.9 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi66 min NE 4.1 G 8 46°F 1020 hPa
45175 44 mi35 min E 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 45°F1021 hPa42°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi56 min NNE 5.1 G 6 46°F 48°F1020.7 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi44 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 40°F 37°F1020 hPa38°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi19 minNE 510.00 miOvercast47°F41°F81%1020.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair47°F42°F82%1021 hPa

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW6NW3E4SE5W7W7W10SW9SW8W8W8W4W3CalmN5N5NE7N7N4NE3CalmNE4NE4
1 day agoSE4E4SW11
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SW6N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW4W5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6E6SE6SE6E7E5E3NE5E5CalmE4E6E5SE5SE6SE5SE5SE6SE6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.