Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:17PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:32 PM EDT (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 2:57AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ362 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 241 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ362 Expires:201805250315;;467642 FZUS63 KLOT 241941 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 241 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.2 inches will continue to drift away from the Lakes and across the mid-Atlantic region tonight. Farther northwest, an area of low pressure near Lake Winnipeg will deepen to 29.5 inches tonight, then will slowly track southeast with its associated cold front across the northern Lakes through Sunday morning while weakening to 29.8 inches. The diffuse front will sag south of Lake Michigan Sunday night. High pressure of 30.2 inches will spread across Ontario north of the Lakes Monday and Tuesday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-250315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James, MI
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location: 45.58, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250040
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
840 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Some showers and non-severe storms tonight...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms in eastern upper
michigan. Severe storms are not expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Upper level ridge axis continues to
slowly build into the western great lakes this afternoon.

Downstream surface high pressure remains over the central great
lakes but is beginning to edge off toward the mid atlantic coast.

Surface low pressure is slipping out of canada into the northern
plains upper midwest region with some semblance of a warm front
arcing down through minnesota iowa. In between, southwest return
flow is pulling more warmer, more humid (and unstable) air into
the far western great lakes, curling across the u.P. Into eastern
upper michigan where there is some actual instability this
afternoon. Lower michigan remains somewhat shielded by the lake
with dewpoints running a good 5 to 10 degrees lower, with no
instability.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower and thunderstorm chances
tonight.

First off, batch of showers and some thunderstorms from earlier in
the day continue to slip across upper michigan, toward the eastern
u.P. Convection has been diminishing upon reaching a more stable
environment downstream, but will need to be addressed early on.

Already added shower chances to the forecast for the balance of
the afternoon into early evening.

After that, surface low will ease into the upper midwest as we go
through tonight with some semblance of a cold front slipping into
the northern central plains. Best forcing instability and main
focus for showers and storms will remain upstream, from the
midwest into the central plains. That said, deeper moisture instability
plume will continue to fold into the western great lakes through
the night. Coupled with a modest LLJ developing and nosing across
the upper peninsula, will maintain scattered showers and perhaps
some thunderstorm possibilities across the u.P. Through the
course of the night, and just into the tip of the mitt. No severe
weather anticipated.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Weekend rain chances...

high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms, especially
Friday evening, and in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday
pattern synopsis forecast: high amplitude ridging that has been
building over the eastern CONUS will be dampened by a shortwave that
has been moving out of the desert southwest. This shortwave will
move over the area Friday evening and through the day Saturday. A
second shortwave moving out of the pacific NW will follow closely
behind the first disturbance, moving overhead Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns: primary concern remains the potential for
some scattered thunderstorms over the weekend. Still doesn't look
like a washout by any means, but some afternoon pop-up storms could
cause some inconvenience for the areas they move over. Shear still
looks anemic for any kind of organized severe threat Saturday, with
20kts of 0-6km bulk shear. There are a few areas Sunday with bulk
shear getting into the more preferable 30kt range, but dewpoints
are likely too high in guidance and producing unrealistically high
cape values. Wet bulb zero heights are sub 10kft right now, and mid
level lapse rates will steepen as the trough moves through, so even
pulse type storms could produce some small hail. Will continue to
keep an eye on this and see if things start to look more favorable.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

High pressure returns...

building high pressure will bring another stretch of warm days and
quiet weather heading into mid-week. High temperatures will continue
to run well above normal, with much of northern lower getting into
the 80s. Another chance of showers looks to come later in the week,
right now some time Thursday, as the next disturbance moves overhead.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 840 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
vfr. Llws tonight and Fri morning.

High pressure is starting to slip away from the eastern lakes. Sw
flow will increase just off the surface tonight. This will support
an increase in showers t-storms in upper mi, and perhaps pln will
be grazed by this activity. Otherwise, just mid high clouds here
in northern lower mi. SW winds will be a touch gusty by fri
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
winds will continue to pick up this evening in response to a
tightening pressure gradient as high pressure exits the area and low
pressure approaches. Expect southwesterly winds becoming more
southerly Saturday morning, with speeds in the 15 to 20 knot range
lasting into Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Jz
marine... Am


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 26 mi52 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 57°F 1016.6 hPa
45022 27 mi32 min E 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 44°F1 ft1016.9 hPa (-1.8)48°F
WSLM4 28 mi62 min SSW 1.9 55°F 53°F1016.4 hPa45°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 32 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 7 53°F 1014.8 hPa
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 35 mi52 min S 5.1 G 7 53°F 1015.6 hPa
45175 44 mi22 min W 7.8 G 7.8 54°F 47°F1 ft1016 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 45 mi44 min W 8 G 9.9 70°F 1014.9 hPa35°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi42 min SSW 9.7 G 12 43°F 38°F1 ft1015.6 hPa41°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaver Island, Beaver Island Airport, MI8 mi37 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair66°F46°F51%1016.3 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi37 minSW 410.00 miFair70°F48°F46%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S7CalmCalmSW4SW6SW8SW9
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1 day agoW5SW8SW3W4W6W7W3CalmCalmCalmW4SW5W4W5W3W6W7W8SW6W8SW7W6SW3W3
2 days agoCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW8NW7N5W5W8W9W8SW7W8SW7SW3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.