Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:11 PM Moonrise 4:23 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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LMZ362 Expires:202405200945;;514269 Fzus63 Kmkx 200208 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 908 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light and variable winds continue this evening as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves northeast across lake michigan. Winds will predominately be southeasterly by Monday morning and shift more southerly Monday afternoon as a weak area of low pressure around 29.7 inches tracks over wi and lake michigan through the afternoon and early evening. Expect to see more west to southwesterly component of the winds briefly overnight Monday. Winds will turn more south to southeasterly and increase for Tuesday as a deepening low pressure around 29.4 inches approaches the upper great lakes region and tracks northeast into Wednesday. There looks to be periods of Thunderstorms over the lake, especially southern portions Monday through Wednesday morning.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-200945- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 908 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then becoming west after midnight diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Wednesday night - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Thursday - West winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ300
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FXUS63 KAPX 200151 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 951 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Monday night.

- Frontal passage Tuesday night brings chance for a round of showers and possible strong thunderstorms.

- Cooler and occasionally unsettled Thursday and beyond.

UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure remains centered over the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. Clear skies are giving way to increasing mid/high clouds well in advance of developing low pressure centered over the Plains and an associated cold front.
areas of light rain are trying to hold together across portions of Wisconsin along the leading edge of increasing low level moisture...but dry low level SE flow is tending to erode the leading edge of this light precip. Dry wx will persist across our entire CWA overnight...but mid and high clouds will continue to increase from west to east. Overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Synopsis/pattern: A cold front continues to slowly sag into se lower MI. That front stalls along the southern lower MI border, and then comes northward Monday, likely reaching our southern zones in the afternoon. Wsw flow continues aloft, with the potential for an MCV to take a run at us by Monday afternoon.

Forecast: Quiet tonight. Southerly return flow begins off the surface overnight, and elevated instability will make some inroads into southern MI, mainly south MKG-PHN. Not this far north. High and mid clouds will be on a slow increase. Between the clouds and the drier low-level air, significant fog is not expected. Min temps near 50f to the mid 50s.

Monday, the lifting warm front will gradually climb into northern lower MI in the afternoon. We will have a reasonably healthy amount of mid and high clouds, so diurnal heating will be somewhat inhibited. A bit more in the way of sun is possible in southern areas midday/early afternoon. Max temps near 80f/ lower 80s will be common in northern lower MI, 70-75f in eastern upper MI. Surface dew points reach near 60f in the south in the afternoon. That pushes MlCape values to 1000-1500j/kg in the south, where shear is less (0-6km bulk 25-30kt). More shear but less instability to the north. Pops will be on the increase thru the day, whether by convection moving in from upstream, or via activity firing here if upstream convection erodes. Likely pops in the afternoon w and n, chances in the east. SPC continues with a Marginal severe threat in northern lower MI. That includes all svr types (including a 2% tor area), in deference to the surface warm front in the area. Sub-850mb flow is progged to back somewhat during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday. This will be enough forcing to push a stationary front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area for Tuesday, leading to rain showers and possible strong thunderstorms. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Monday night/ Tuesday Evening and Night: A stationary front located downstate will provide lift to support thunderstorms for Tuesday. The aformentioned front will get pushed northward into Northern Michigan as a digging trough and associated strengthening surface low track into the Midwest. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which will present the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms for the region. However, attention quickly turns to Tuesday evening/ night. First, I want to preface that this setup and forecast can change as finer details continue to be analyzed and conclusions are drawn. Now, Tuesday's setup has the potential to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Southerly winds will help to usher deep moisture into Northern Michigan, but potential activity downstate could cut-off the deep moisture fetch and essentially kill the chances of severe weather. Atmospheric dynamics continue to be in favor of severe weather, but the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage poses the question if anything will be able to initiate along the front. However, given the later timing and expected forcing, thoughts continue to be in support of a linear convective mode with all severe hazards possible. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have areas west of US 131 in a Slight Risk (2/5) and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

High pressure centered over the Western Great Lakes region will slide east tonight...replaced by low pressure and a cold front on Monday
Dry wx will persist tonight
before chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase late Monday morning thru Monday evening as moisture and instability increase along and ahead of this system. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours...but may occasionally drop to MVFR/IFR within heavier showers/storms. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become SE at around 10 kts on Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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