Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Elgin, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 8:05 AM PST (16:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:03PMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elgin, OR
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location: 45.61, -117.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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Fxus66 kpdt 201121 aaa
area forecast discussion
national weather service pendleton or
330 am pst Wed feb 20 2019
updated aviation discussion

Short term Today through Friday... A potent weather system
continues to bring a mix of lower elevation rain and snow, with
moderate to heavy snow in the northeast mountains of the forecast
area. The winds have switched to northwest in northern areas, which
is bringing in colder air now to the cwa. Precipitation in many
places that had rain earlier has changed over to light snow. The
blue mountains will continue to receive significant snow
accumulation with upslope snow showers. There is also snow over the
cascade east slopes of oregon and washington as well. This is all in
conjunction with a cold front that is dropping southward from the
north with the winds backing to the northwest. This will allow cold
air advection to take place along and north of this front for the
remainder of this current weather system. However, the back edge of
the main precipitation shield is moving across the blue mountain
foothills at this time. There may be a break in the precipitation
shortly, and then snow showers will continue in the favored upslope
areas of the blue mountain and foothills for the rest of this
morning into this afternoon. Winter storm warnings remain in effect
for the northern blue mountains through 10 pm this evening, and for
wallowa county until 4 am Thursday. Elsewhere winter weather
advisories remain in effect for the rest of the mountains, and the
foothills of the northern blue mountains through at least today.

Downslope flow over the cascades will create precipitation shadowing
over the lower columbia basin and central north central oregon as
well as the simcoe highlands. Temperatures need to lower more to
allow the snow in the lower elevations, that had rain earlier, to
accumulate. Later tonight the snow showers will decrease with
lingering light snow showers over the northeast mountains. There
will be significant wrap around snowfall also in wallowa county as
well. Due to most of the precipitation having been rain in the blue
mountain foothills, total snow amounts will be less than previously
predicted. As such have lowered the winter storm warnings to winter
weather advisories for the blue mountain foothills. There will be
drying taking place late Thursday and Thursday night with a
transient upper ridge moving across the CWA Thursday night. On
Friday the next weather system will begin to move into the
washington cascades, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. The
models are now showing warmer conditions than previously advertised
over the CWA so the lower elevations may see mostly rain again with
this next system going into the extended forecast. However,
temperatures will still be below normal through the short term.

Winds will be rather light through the short term period. 88

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Despite that spring
equinox is only four weeks away, winter will maintain its grip on
the pacific NW for the last week of february. This weekend, a
shortwave trough will slide south along the wa or coast and a
surface cold front associated with the system will be quasi-
stationary over the southern half of oregon from late Friday night
through early Sunday. Overall, models are in good agreement with the
front during this time so confidence is high that eastern oregon
south of condon and la grande could get a prolonged period of snow.

There is a good chance of snow north of the condon-la grande line
but snow accumulations may not be quite as significant. Although
snow levels will be down to the columbia basin floor, snow does not
look particularly promising for the washington side of the basin and
the kittitas yakima valleys.

Confidence in the deterministic models fades the remainder of the
forecast period. While the ECMWF and canadian eventually push the
quasi-stationary front south and out of the region Sunday night, the
gfs deepens the offshore low with slight ridging east of the
cascades. The GFS increases the southwest flow and forces the front
to the north back over the forecast area. Since the GFS is the
outlier, it's better to not buy its heavy precipitation pattern over
eastern oregon and far southern washington. Models continue to
diverge Monday through Tuesday with the GFS bringing the deep low
over wa or indicating continued snow at all elevations. The ecmwf
is completely different with a warm front underneath the upper level
ridge that would increase snow levels for a rain snow event. The
canadian is actually more in agreement with the gfs. The ECMWF is
now the outlier in this solution and differs significantly with the
ensemble runs. Once again, confidence is low for days 6-7 and
hopefully future models were come into better agreement. Wister

Aviation 12z tafs... The snow rain mix at alw and pdt is changing
to snow and conditions are deteriorating to ifr. This will likely
continue through 18z with a gradual improvement the remainder of the
day but nothing more than MVFR expected. Snow is ending at psc with
improving conditions during the morning toVFR with brief periods of
5sm br. Ykm will likely remainVFR for the next 24 hours. Dls will
also haveVFR conditions but there is a possibility of stratus and
fog overnight in a light easterly upslope flow. Tafs at rdm and bdn
have been the biggest challenge as snow will develop by late morning
or early afternoon, reducing conditions to MVFR ifr. A northerly
gradient will also provide low level upslope tonight for possible
ifr or lifr CIGS vsbys. Winds will generally range from 5-12 knots
through the period. Wister

Preliminary point temps pops
Pdt 32 22 31 17 90 30 20 0
alw 32 22 32 18 90 30 20 0
psc 34 21 35 20 60 10 10 0
ykm 35 20 37 20 40 20 0 0
hri 35 23 35 19 70 20 10 0
eln 38 17 38 17 40 20 0 0
rdm 37 20 35 16 70 50 20 0
lgd 34 22 33 14 80 40 20 0
gcd 34 19 33 13 90 40 20 0
dls 41 25 40 25 60 30 10 0

Pdt watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for orz505-

Winter storm warning until 4 am pst Thursday for orz050.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst this evening for orz502.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for orz049-

Wa... Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst this evening for waz030.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for waz029.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for waz520.

88 85 85

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
La Grande/Union County Airport, OR23 mi69 minESE 51.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F27°F96%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from LGD (wind in knots)
1 day agoNW10NW13NW10NW14NW11NW14NW11NW9NW7N7N7N6N8N7N5Calm--SE3E4W6NW8N74NW5
2 days agoW6W9N5NW10W14W13NW14W16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pendleton, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pendleton, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.