Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minnehaha, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:44PM Monday November 12, 2018 10:28 PM PST (06:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 8:55PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 244 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
In the main channel.. -general seas...combined seas 2 to 3 feet through Tuesday morning, building to around 6 ft following the ebb Tuesday evening. -first ebb...around 730 pm Monday. Seas near 4 ft. -second ebb...around 830 am Tuesday. Seas near 4 ft. -third ebb...around 815 pm Tuesday. Seas near 6 ft.
PZZ200 244 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Winds will become southerly tonight into Tuesday as offshore low pressure stalls west of the waters. A weakening cold front then crosses Wednesday. High pressure builds over the waters for Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnehaha, WA
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location: 45.62, -122.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 130444
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
843 pm pst Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis High pressure centered over the pacific northwest today
will shift east tonight and Tuesday. A weak frontal system moves
across western washington and northwest oregon Tuesday late Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. Onshore low-level flow continues
Wednesday. Dry conditions look to return Thursday and persist into
the weekend. There is the potential for another round of east wind
Friday night through Sunday.

Short term Tonight through Thursday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Main short-term weather issue continues to be
the east wind. At 21z the kttd-kdls gradient had lowered to -9.8 mb.

This was almost 2 mb stronger than the 12z NAM forecast. Typically,
the nam, among others, tends to be about 2 mb too low on the
gradient during these east wind episodes. The kttd profiler
indicates the east wind core (about 2000 feet above the surface) is
slowly easing early this afternoon. Also, the profiler data suggests
the core layer will continue to become more shallow the remainder of
the day and through tonight. Crown point had a peak gust of 86 mph
earlier, but shortly before 21z indicated gusts to 69 mph.

The 12z NAM maintains a -6 mb kttd-kdls gradient at 14z tue, which is
still good enough for peak gusts around 50-60 mph for crown point and
35-40 mph at the west end of the gorge.

The synoptic pattern today is characterized by a sharp 500 mb ridge
axis centered along the coast at 21z. Satellite imagery indicates an
impressive-looking frontal boundary stretching from a parent low in
the gulf of alaska to a cold front along 135w. The bulk of the energy
will be directed through western canada as the jet stream is forecast
to remain along 50 degrees latitude. The offshore gradient continues
to weaken overnight through tue. Models tend to weaken the offshore
gradient too soon and would not be surprised to see some east wind
lingering through the western gorge into Tuesday evening. The
aforementioned front weakens as it approaches the coast with the
leading edge reaching the south washington coast Tue afternoon.

Overall, this system is not very impressive, considering it will
encounter a fairly strong ridge. The bulk of the precip will be over
sw washington, the north oregon coast and coast range Tue night
through Wed morning. Areas south of a newport to albany line may not
get any precip. Surface high pressure strengthens Wed night and have
included patchy fog for the coast and most interior valley areas.

Northwest flow aloft Thursday coupled with on-shore low-level flow
should result in considerable clouds across much of the area, but any
shower threat will be to the north. Weishaar

Long term Thursday night through Monday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Deterministic models remain in good agreement
through much of the long term period and continue to show a sharp
upper level ridge building across the pac nw. This will likely keep
conditions dry through the weekend under weak offshore flow. Given
that we are generally within our fog season, suspect conditions are
ripe for overnight fog development in wind protected valleys in the
interior through the weekend. The forecast becomes more uncertain
early next week as models start to diverge significantly, but the
general trend is to swing a weak front across the forecast area on
Monday or Tuesday so will keep some slight chance pops across the
region during this time. Given the current pattern expect rather
seasonable temps through early next week, with little day to day
change. 64

Aviation GenerallyVFR conditions expected next 24 hours. The
only exception is north coastal areas where an approaching cold
front late Tue will bring lowering CIGS and increasing chances for
rain. MVFR conditions at kast become likely after 00z. Shallow
ground fog is possible at the south end of the willamette
valley keug between 11z and 16z, but it remains unlikely to cause
any significant restriction to vis or cigs.

Easterly winds out of the gorge, will continue to impact kttd and
kpdx, but the winds are expected to weaken slowly tonight and tue.

Gusts in the range of 30 to 35 kt remain possible at kttd through
about 12z.

Pdx and approaches...VFR flight conditions tonight and tue. Eastely
winds out of the gorge will continue to slowly weaken next 24 hours.

Marine No changes. Previous discussion follows. Winds over the
waters have gradually eased today as expected and decided to let the
previous SCA for winds expire as planned. The next approaching
frontal system will turn winds southerly tonight into tue. Expect
southerly pre-frontal winds will increase Tue and Tue night, with
gusts to 25 kt expected mainly over the northern waters. Have issued
another SCA for winds covering the northern waters for this next
event. The front will move onshore early Wed with winds becoming
light westerly behind the front. High pres will build over the
waters for Thu and fri, bringing a period of northerly winds. Then
more offshore flow is looking increasingly likely next weekend but
not especially strong at this point.

Seas will remain 5 ft or below through today and most of tue. The
frontal system late Tue into Wed should push seas back up into
the 7 to 9 ft range. Then a trailing dynamic swell train from
the system should push seas back up around 10 ft later Wed into
thu. Jbonk pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 9 am Tuesday to 7 am pst
Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 4 pm Tuesday to 7 am pst
Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 37 mi46 min 53°F1029.1 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi46 min 51°F1027 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 71 mi40 min N 8 G 14 51°F 52°F1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA1 mi35 minSE 610.00 miFair43°F30°F60%1029.8 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR4 mi35 minSE 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F28°F58%1029.5 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi35 minSSW 510.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1029.9 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi35 minE 25 G 3610.00 miFair and Windy41°F28°F62%1029.7 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR16 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair35°F30°F85%1030 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
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1 day agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W6NW4W5E9E11
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2 days agoN3NW3NW4N3N3NW3NW33N4NW5N4Calm3NW4NW75N6NW5NW5NW4W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.