Saturday, March23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Minnehaha, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:28PM Saturday March 23, 2019 9:21 AM PDT (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:58PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 251 Am Pdt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Sunday morning...
In the main channel.. - general seas...10 to 12 ft through Saturday. - first ebb...very strong ebb around 715 am Saturday. Seas near 14 to 16 ft with breakers. - second ebb...around 730 pm Saturday. Seas near 12 to 14 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 745 am Sunday. Seas near 10 to 12 ft with breakers possible.
PZZ200 251 Am Pdt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Upper troughing brings continued showers and possibly Thunderstorms Saturday. High pressure briefly moves through the waters Saturday night. Unsettled weather returns next week, with another front arriving Sunday night into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnehaha, WA
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location: 45.62, -122.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 231028
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
328 am pdt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis An upper level trough of low pressure will lift
northeast across the forecast area today bringing more showers and a
slight chance of thunderstorms. A brief period under high pressure
Sunday will bring a dry ans slightly warmer day, before another
series of frontal systems brings more rain next week.

Short term Today through Monday... Another shortwave associated
with the large upper low over the gulf of alaska was seen in water
vapor pictures approaching 130w early this morning. Air mass remains
unstable this morning, but instability is expected to deepen later
today with surface heating and the arrival of the shortwave. With
some dynamic forcing with the shortwave, expect showers to increase
in coverage today, with a slight chance of thunderstorms as the
upper trough passes. With the showers and cool trough, expect
daytime temepratures are likely to be a little below normal again

The shortwave finally passes tonight, bringing an end to the chance
for showers. Models remain in good agreement showing a shortwave
ridge of high pressure moving across the region Sunday and Sunday
night, for a period of dry weather. Surface ridging Sunday morning
along with residual low level moisture suggests some patchy fog

The next shortwave kicking out of the pacific low is expected to
push a cold front into the forecast area Monday. There are some
minor timing issues with the cold front, with GFS operational run a
little faster then ec, but net effect is still for the front to move
in during the daytime. This system does not appear much different
from the Friday front, in that a narrow band of moisture associated
with the front moves through during the daytime. QPF is not likely
to be particularly high as the front moves through pretty quickly,
but dynamics and moisture suggest at least likely pops reasonable
for the entire forecast area.

Long term Monday night through Friday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Active weather next week, as a large upper-level
trough sits off the coast of washington and oregon most of the week,
sending shortwaves into the pacific northwest. Used the national
blend of models primarily for precipitation chances through next
week because deterministic guidance doesn't reflect the uncertainty
in the timing of these shortwaves that is reflected in more of a
probabilistic forecast produced by the nbm.

Monday night we will have lingering post-frontal showers from the
first of these shortwaves. Deterministic models (gfs and ecmwf) show
us drying out on Tuesday as we are between systems. The nbm,
however, keeps a chance of a few showers suggesting a the
possibility of weaker, unresolved shortwaves generating a few
showers on Tuesday. Have left a chance of showers in the forecast on
Tuesday. Wednesday, deterministic models show another shortwave
moving in, and this is supported by an increase in chance for rain
in the nbm. Therefore, have likely pops in the forecast for
Wednesday. Thursday, the trough that has been sitting offshore all
week finally starts to weaken and move onshore. This will keep
showers over our area through Thursday. There is greater uncertainty
on Friday, with some guidance showing the development of an upper-
level ridge starting Friday into next weekend, which would dry us
out, or the pattern turning to more zonal flow which could keep a
chance for showers on Friday. For that reason, the nbm keeps a
chance for showers on Friday. The nbm does show a trend toward lower
pops, however, suggesting most of the ensemble members are leaning
toward drier conditions Friday going into next weekend. -mccoy

Aviation Showers will continue overnight, with a slight chance
of thunder developing along the coast after 12z Sunday and
shifting inland Saturday afternoon. Conditions will be a mix of
categories through Saturday morning with ifr fog developing in
areas which clear out and areas which keep clouds remainingVFR.

Many sites will be up and down overnight as showers traverse the
area. Expect conditions to trend toVFR by late Saturday morning,
but brief MVFR or lower cig vis will be possible with showers
and any storms. Bowen
kpdx and approaches... Expect mainlyVFR, but shower chances will
continue through the overnight and any showers may bring the
terminal to MVFR. There is a chance for a thunderstorm to impact
the terminal sometime Saturday afternoon. Bowen

Marine As showers continue through the Friday night Saturday
morning period, may see a thunderstorm or two develop. Seas will
remain around 13 ft through the day Saturday with west swell,
although winds have decreased significantly and will remain
benign. The only exception would be in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms through Saturday morning, where strong, gusty winds
are possible.

The next system sweeps a cold front through the waters Sunday
night Monday with seas building back up to or above 10 ft Monday
briefly Monday and Monday night. May see some brief wind gusts
above 20 kt with this front. The waters remain under the
influence of a large trough, but with little additional impact
through midweek. Seas are forecast to drop back below 10 ft
Tuesday and remain around 5 to 7 ft with winds staying below 20
kt out of the south and southeast. Bowen

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am pdt Sunday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 11 am
pdt Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 37 mi40 min 44°F1021.6 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi40 min 50°F1021.4 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 71 mi34 min E 1.9 G 6 43°F 45°F1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR4 mi29 minE 710.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1021.8 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi29 minN 30.75 miFog/Mist47°F44°F90%1021.5 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi29 minE 310.00 miOvercast47°F45°F93%1021.8 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR16 mi29 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmW3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmE4SW5Calm4E5E5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE4E3CalmE4E3SE5SE5SE4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33CalmS4SW3--W3W4Calm
2 days ago------------------------SE5SE5S8SE12SE12SE13SE11E14

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.