Friday, January18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Minnehaha, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:58PM Friday January 18, 2019 1:40 PM PST (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 826 Am Pst Fri Jan 18 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas around 15 ft, easing to around 10 ft by early afternoon. Seas building to near 15 ft tonight and continuing through Sat morning. - first ebb...strong ebb around 230 pm this afternoon. Seas to 14 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 3 am Saturday. Seas to 17 ft with breakers likely. - third ebb...around 315 pm Saturday. Seas to 17 ft with breakers likely.
PZZ200 826 Am Pst Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A warm front will move through the waters today. The next strong low pressure system well offshore this morning reaches haida gwaii late tonight. The associated cold front moves across the waters this evening. Weak high pressure returns on Saturday, followed by another low pressure system Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnehaha, WA
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location: 45.62, -122.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181649
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
849 am pst Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis A warm front will lift across the region today, with rain
increasing. Rain will be heavy at times this afternoon and tonight.

Front will sag south of the region on Saturday, but will wiggle back
north again Sat night. Whole low pres area and front will finally
shift inland on sun, with decreasing precipitation. Snow levels jump
way high today and tonight, then slowly lower over the weekend. Now
appears will some chance of light precipitation around the region to
start next week.

Short term Today through Sunday night... Just a quick update this
morning to the QPF for today's system. Upped it a little bit, mostly
in lane county. Still don't expect any river flooding with this
system due to dry antecedent conditions. It sounds like there was a
thunderstorm or two near the coast very early this morning, but any
thunder chances are quickly dwindling as warmer air arrives
throughout the profile, so will not add any thunderstorms to the
forecast. Overall, the forecast is on track. The previous short term
discussion follows. Bowen
a mild morning across the region with temperatures mostly in the
lower to middle 40s. Scattered showers continue across the region
this morning, though these showers will be decreasing.

A rather high-moisture laden system will be pushing into the region
today from the west. A warm front off roughly along 42n will lift
northward today and this evening. As is does, it will drag an
moderately strong atmospheric river into our area, with moderate to
heavy rain expected for later this afternoon into this evening. Warm
front will lift into washington state this evening, but a cold front
will be approaching from the west. Rain will continue overnight, and
again, could be heavy at times until the cold front shifts inland.

Now appears that the cold front will push onshore late tonight, but
will likely hold up to the south over southwest oregon and parts of
lane county. So, rain will turn to showers north of a florence to
salem to mt hood line, but rain will continue to the south.

Rainfall for this afternoon through Sat along the coast and into the
coastal mountains, and even the cascades roughly 1.50 to 3.00 inches,
with local spots in the oregon coast range possibly higher. For
interior lowlands, mostly in 1.00 to 1.50 inches range, with higher
rainfall values being to south of portland. Not expecting any
flooding, but such rainfall will lead to areas of ponding of water in
low-lying spots and areas with poor drainage.

Snow levels rise from 4000 feet this am to near 6500 feet by this
evening, and will hold at 6500 to 7000 feet tonight into sat. This
means rain falling on the passes, though could see a foot of snow
this afternoon into tonight on the highest peaks of the cascades.

Main low will approach oregon Sat night into Sunday, but will stay
just offshore. This low will tug on the front, and lift it back north
sat night. This will allow rain to spread back north across much of
northwest oregon and southwest washington. But, rain will not be as
heavy as earlier expected. Main front will push inland on Sunday,
with rain turning to showers. But, with low just off the coast, will
maintain showery pattern for Sunday, with snow levels gradually
lowering to near 4000 feet.


Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Monday through
Wednesday... Upper troughing continues traversing southeast through
next week, allowing upper ridging to build east over the pacific to
near the us west coast by midweek. However, as the ridge axis remains
offshore during this period, the local area will be in the north to
northwesterly flow on its front side, still allowing the intrusion of
shortwaves. All this to say the extended period likely won't be as
dry as ridging could imply. Models are in agreement with the synoptic
pattern through the long term period, but there are some
discrepancies regarding timing and strength of shortwaves and upper
lows which introduce uncertainty into the forecast. Will likely see
some dry periods early next week, but with the timing differences
between the models, it's difficult to pin those exact periods down at
this point. Used a blend of models for the forecast, trending toward
the climatological pop (40%-50% currently) during the periods of most
significant difference between the models. Snow levels look like
they'll remain in cascade elevations with no love for low-elevation
snow enthusiasts. Bowen

Aviation MostlyVFR conditions this morning, except lifr to
vlifr fog in the central columbia gorge. A warm front will move
into the southwest portion of the area between 18z and 21z and
then lift north through the afternoon and evening. Flight
conditions will lower into mainly MVFR with the warm front, but
coastal areas likely to become ifr. Coastal areas improve to MVFR
around 12z sat. South wind 25-35 kt with gusts to 45 kt occurs
along the coast late this afternoon through tonight. Llws
possible for inland TAF sites late this afternoon through the
evening, especially near the gorge.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions this morning and this to
continue into early afternoon. Warm front expected to reach the
terminal and vicinity around 21-22z, with conditions lowering to
MVFR. Areas of ifr possible 00z to 15z sat, especially in the
tualatin valley. Llws potential late this afternoon through the
evening with e-se surface wind and increasing s-sw wind aloft.


Marine No changes to current forecast. The next strong low
pres area was out near 43n 138w this morning. The low deepens and
move north to northeast through tonight, with a minimum low pres
around 970 mb 06z sat. The low eventually reaches haida gwaii
early Sat morning. Will maintain current gale warning. Models
were a little too strong with the previous system so have trended
wind speeds down just a little from the earlier forecast. Still
looking for MAX gusts to around 45 kt late this afternoon through
this evening. The 12z NAM would suggest possible storm force
gusts over pzz275 late this afternoon with 50-55 kt 975 mb wind
speeds. Wind speeds diminish late tonight through sat, falling
below 15 kt over the central zones and to 20 kt over the north
zones by Sat afternoon.

Another low pressure system moves across the waters on Sunday,
though the exact track of this low is uncertain, with
differences between our forecast models. This will be a somewhat
weaker system, with small craft advisory winds expected ahead of
the low pressure center, then weaker winds again behind the low.

Seas have eased to 15 to 18 ft this morning and will be around 15
ft through the afternoon. Enp guidance was at least 3-4 ft too
high with the previous system and the 06z enp guidance for buoy
46029 valid 16z still looks to be a couple feet too high. Max
seas expected to be 17-20 ft late tonight through Sat then fall
off to the lower teens by Sun morning. Wave heights will stay
around 9 to 10 feet through much of Sunday, then continue to
gradually fall going into next week as high pressure once again
builds over the waters. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 10 am pst this morning for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Gale warning until 6 am pst Saturday for coastal waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 37 mi40 min 42°F1018.4 hPa (-2.3)
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi40 min 1015.5 hPa (-3.5)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 71 mi40 min S 4.1 G 5.1 46°F 44°F1015.9 hPa (-2.2)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA1 mi47 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain45°F39°F83%1019.3 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR4 mi47 minESE 910.00 miLight Rain47°F39°F77%1019.4 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi47 minSSE 37.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1019 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi47 minE 1210.00 miOvercast47°F39°F74%1019.5 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR16 mi47 minN 07.00 miLight Rain45°F42°F90%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE10
1 day agoCalm4E10
2 days agoCalmW4CalmE6E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E7E3CalmE11NE7Calm4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.