Thursday, June29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday June 29, 2017 8:52 AM PDT (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:00AMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 302 Am Pdt Thu Jun 29 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from 8 am to 11 am pdt this morning...
In the main channel..Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. However, seas will temporarily build to 7 to 8 ft with breakers likely during the ebb around 930 am this morning, and to 6 to 7 ft with breakers possible during the ebb around 1030 pm tonight..
PZZ200 302 Am Pdt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Little change in overall weather pattern through the coming weekend. High pres will remain over the ne pac. Thermal low pres will generally remain over nw california and sw oregon. Pres gradients will strengthen later Sun and Mon, with a bit more in the way of gusty N winds and choppy seas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 290954
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
254 am pdt Thu jun 29 2017

Synopsis An upper level ridge will traverse the pacific northwest
today and Friday, leading to mostly sunny skies after some areas of
morning low clouds. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees for most
of the forecast area today, with slightly above average temperatures
persisting into Friday. The next weak and mainly dry cold front will
deepen the marine layer for more extensive morning low clouds and
cooler temps Saturday. West to southwesterly flow will persist
through at least early next week, maintaining the seasonable pattern
of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine and temperatures within a
few degrees of late june early july normals.

Short term Today through Sunday... Water vapor satellite imagery
shows the pac NW under northwesterly flow, as an upper level trough
moves into the northern rockies and high pressure at the surface and
aloft builds onshore from the NE pacific. Goes-16 10.3-3.9 um fog
product shows extensive low clouds along the coast tillamook
northward. Low clouds are also developing across much of cowlitz
county and locally along the north oregon cascade foothills. Latest
laps msas analyses show the surface high pressure ridge axis
extending from near lincoln city, eastward across salem and santiam
pass. This is often the delineation between low clouds being able to
move inland on onshore flow to the north of the ridge axis, while
more northerly flow to the south of the ridge axis keep most areas
clear other than perhaps the immediate coast. Therefore, expect low
clouds to fill in this morning salem northward, with less expected
around eugene. The marine layer was still quite deep on the 00z salem
sounding... Up to near 850 mb. The marine layer is slowly becoming
shallower as an upper level ridge offshore approaches the coast. Esrl
astoria profiler indeed shows this occurring, albeit a slow process,
with the marine layer around 1000-1100m (3300-3600 ft) deep. Model
soundings show the marine layer continuing to become shallower today
and through this evening, which should allow earlier clearing times
and warmer temperatures than yesterday. MOS guidance generally
suggests inland highs in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon, while
the afternoon seabreeze keeps the coast in the 60s. This forecast
seems reasonable, given model 850 mb temps combined with some
afternoon onshore flow.

The upper ridge axis will move onshore this evening, then across the
wa or later tonight and Friday. This should result in a shallower
marine layer to start tonight, and likely less inland penetration of
the stratus Friday morning. However, an approaching shortwave will
likely start to deepen the marine layer again as Friday progresses,
with an increasingly robust west-southwesterly push of marine air
Friday afternoon and evening. There is an outside chance that this
will occur early enough to allow a few low clouds into the eugene
area Fri morning. The deepening marine influence will likely keep
temps capped at around 80 deg f for the willamette valley south of
eugene Friday afternoon, while the thermal trough keeps the pdx metro
area and points east warm... Perhaps a touch warmer than today, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s Friday.

Model soundings and SREF guidance suggest some potential for
mixed-layer CAPE to get above 500 j kg in the oregon cascades ahead
of the approaching shortwave. Therefore, we decided to keep the
slight chance thunder mention Fri afternoon, though it's very
marginal. With flow aloft remaining southwesterly, any convection
developing along the cascade crest would probably drift quickly east
of our forecast area.

Eventually the thermal trough moves east of the cascades Friday
evening, opening the door for deep onshore flow to spread low clouds
well inland by Sat morning. This should result in a cooldown back
into the 70s inland. Some spotty drizzle cannot be ruled out in the
marine layer Sat morning, mainly along the coast and in the
foothills. Clearing times Saturday will probably be similar to
yesterday; perhaps an hour or two earlier. High pressure is expected
to build back into the pac NW for Sunday, again resulting in less
morning low clouds inland and a slight warmup.

All in all... A fairly mundane summer forecast for the region, with
morning clouds, afternoon sun, and temps not expected to stray much
more than 5-10 degrees from normal through the period. weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Sunday night
through Wednesday... Typical summertime pattern continues through at
least the first half of next week. Fairly zonal flow with a series of
weak shortwaves will bring marine clouds to the coast overnight
Sunday night, with a chance for drizzle or light rain on the north
coast through the morning hours. Another, weaker impulse will bring
clouds back to the north coast Monday night into Tuesday morning,
with another chance for some light rain or drizzle on the north
coast. Going into midweek, expect less and less morning clouds.

Temperatures are going to stay around normal early next week,
gradually increasing midweek. -mccoy

Aviation MVFR stratus is slowly working its way up the lower
columbia river early this morning and is expected to filter into
the metro terminals after 11z. The best coverage is expected in
the north and along the cascade foothills, with less coverage as
you go south of the metro. Expect clouds in the interior to push
back to the coast this afternoon, withVFR conditions expected
through late tonight.

Meanwhile, the north coast looks to remain socked in with MVFR
stratus through through this afternoon. A few hours of scattered
skies are possible this evening, but MVFR status likely returns
after 05z. Further south, a weak surface ridge is keeping marine
over the waters. MVFR stratus is still expected to push onshore
this morning, but it may not be until after 13z. Any stratus that
does move in will likely push offshore this afternoon, withVFR
conditions expected into tonight.

Kpdx and approaches... MVFR stratus is expected to push into the
terminal after 12z. Stratus will burn off through the morning,
withVFR conditions expected after 17z. 64

Marine Little change in the overall weather pattern expected
through most of the weekend, with high pres over the NE pacific
and thermal low pres over NW california and SW oregon. Gradients
remain rather weak through Saturday so expect northerly winds to
remain below 20 kt. The gradient becomes a little tighter Sunday
and Monday, with gusty northerly winds 25 to 30 kt possible. The
strongest winds will generally remain south of newport.

Seas are currently around 6 ft with a dominant period around 8
seconds. Seas will decrease to around 5 ft later this morning and
look to remain below 8 ft through the weekend. However, periods
of steep wind driven seas are possible Sunday and Monday as the
winds increase so wound not be surprised to see an advisory for
hazardous seas issued in the coming days. 64

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 8 am to
11 am pdt this morning.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi52 min 64°F1021.3 hPa (+1.0)
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi52 min 53°F1021.1 hPa (+0.8)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 57°F 65°F1020.8 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1020.7 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi59 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F51°F75%1020.7 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi59 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast58°F48°F72%1020.8 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi59 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast55°F50°F83%1020.7 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi59 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F52°F78%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3SW4SW4W6SW4--NW7NW7NW8NW845NW5NW4CalmNW33CalmW4NW7Calm
1 day agoNW54W5N6NW6NW4W5CalmCalmCalm3N6NW8N74N5NW5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN333NW6NW44W63NW755N7N7N744N5NW4N63N5Calm3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Kelley Point
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 12:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM PDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:20 AM PDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:52 PM PDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Knapp Landing
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 12:24 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM PDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:20 AM PDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:04 PM PDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:36 PM PDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.