Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:05PM Monday January 22, 2018 6:13 PM PST (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 252 Pm Pst Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel..Combined seas 13 feet through mid-day Tue. However, seas will rise to near 15 ft during the ebbs around 8 pm Monday evening and 845 am Tuesday morning.
PZZ200 252 Pm Pst Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over waters this evening will be replaced by a deepening low pressure center which will push a front towards the area tonight and Tuesday. This will bring gales and increasing seas. Additional systems are expected on Wednesday night and Thursday and again for the weekend which will bring increasing seas and more gale force winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 222319
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
319 pm pst Mon jan 22 2018
aviation section updated below...

Synopsis The next pacific frontal system arrives Tuesday for more
rain, coastal wind, and plenty of snow for the higher cascades. The
front is expected to stall Tuesday night and Wednesday, leading to a
prolonged period of fairly steady rain and cascades snow. The front
will finally be pushed east Wednesday night as a strong and cold
upper trough moves into the pac nw. Numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected later Wednesday into Thursday as snow
levels lower to the foothills. Showers linger into Friday, then
another very wet system appears likely to arrive during the weekend.

Short term Tonight through Thursday... Showers decreasing as
transient ridging advances from the west under zonal flow. A broad
upper low centered in the gulf of alaska will deepen while a short
wave currently along the southern boundary get pushed eastward.

Models show the short wave attempting to close off into a low
circulation positioned of the bc coast by tomorrow morning. The
broad baroclinic leaf between 140 and 130w implies it will be a
distinct possibility, but none of the current models actually
complete the circulation.

Nonetheless, there is a sizable moisture tap on the warm side of the
upper jet pointed toward the region. This jet alignment makes snow
levels a bit tricky given the upper pattern's zonal flow and
trajectory of the shortwave potential upper low. The surface
component of the feature in the NAM tries to spin up a surface low,
however, and that looks to bring an easterly component to the low
level winds. This easterly component could bring a modest amount of
snow to the area above 1000 feet between the upper hood river valley
and mt adams early tomorrow. Precip cloud be enough to bring 1 to 4
inches of snow before noon and just shy of an advisory level average
of 3 inches. Back aloft, there will be warmer air aloft pushed
northward as the upper feature drifts north off the noam coast and
that will serve to lift snow levels for a significant period
Wednesday. Still, it appears there will be enough accumulation
across the higher cascades to warrant and advisory for the north
oregon and lane county cascades above 5500 feet, and then a warning
for the south washington cascades above 5000 feet.

Recent model runs (both larger scale and finer scale hi-res) hold
off on forming the aforementioned closed surface circulation.

Regardless, looks like a somewhat weak coastal jet will have time to
develop Tuesday night, but offshore pressure gradients should limit
winds to the headlands and pushing on 55-60 mph at best. That's far
too marginal to justify issuing a warning since they will be
southerly winds and not likely to generate much impact, if at all.

The associated cold front from the parent upper low will somewhat
stall out early Wednesday morning and then finally slide south
across the CWA Wednesday afternoon. This brings snow levels back
down to around 3000 feet for the evening. A secondary cold front
will then arrive Wednesday night to lower accumulating snow levels
to between 1500 and 2000 feet by Thursday morning. By then, the
heavier precip rates will have tapered off into a more showery
nature. However, the overall colder air mass will also bring
moderate instability and the possibility of small hail and
thunderstorms to the willamette valley and points westward including
the waters. Jbonk

Long term Thursday night through Monday... Active weather pattern
to continue through Friday as a slow-moving trough keeps swinging
moisture into the pacific northwest, which looks to be followed by a
very weak trough that will pushes through during the weekend.

Snow levels hold to around 1500 ft Thursday through Friday morning.

850-mb temps lowering to around -5c on both the GFS and ecmwf.

Looking at the 1000-500-mb thicknesses, under onshore flow, we
typically need thicknesses below 522 dam for snow levels below 1000
ft (local study). Both the GFS and ECMWF have thickness around 525
Thursday morning, but increasing to around 530 dam through Friday.

The GFS is the lower of the two, with lowest thickness around 525
dam Thursday evening. Currently, snow levels are above 1000ft, this
could change as the week progresses.

Snow levels start to come back up Friday evening, and continue to
rise through the weekend. A milder system starts to move in with
another surge of moisture. Saturday morning will be pretty wet, but
ridging starts to build Saturday afternoon, pushing the moisture
plume north by late Saturday night or early Sunday. The euro has the
ridge pushing through the area and potentially drying us out by early
Monday. The GFS has the ridge pushing through, but maintaining a
moisture plume focused on our area through Monday. With this
uncertainty, have leaned toward wetter pops. -42

Aviation 00z tafs... MostlyVFR conditions with isolated MVFR
conditions. Showers will become widely scattered in the next few
hours. Steady rain will move in tomorrow morning with increasing
southerly winds. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected by
late tomorrow morning or early afternoon ahead of this front.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions expected through the period.

Steady rain and gusty southerly winds will arrive tomorrow
morning. Expect deteriorating conditions through the day with a
start atVFR, eventually becoming MVFR by the late morning to
early afternoon. Bentley

Marine No changes with respect to gale warning timing. Still
expecting solid gale force winds to move in early Tuesday and
remain through Tuesday evening. There is a chance gales may need
to be extended beyond 06z Wednesday, but will not make any
changes at this time. While yesterday showed good model
consistency later in the week, this model consistency has now
deteriorated. While all models show a primary surface low
somewhere near vancouver island, the NAM and ECMWF show a
secondary low developing and tracking towards the washington
coast and the GFS gem have this secondary low much further
northwest. The track of this secondary low will be the difference
between high end small craft advisory winds or gale force winds.

This uncertainty continues into next weekend. All models have a
surface low tracking towards the area Friday night and into
Saturday, but there are timing and track differences which will
have a significant implications on winds over the waters. The gem
and GFS track closer to the coast and bring the chance for storm
force winds over or and wa waters while the ECMWF tracks the low
much further northwest and keeps winds in the gale force range.

Given the track and the quick movement of the low on Tuesday, it
appears seas will stay in the upper teens, but the track of
the low on Thursday will likely head to higher seas. A long
fetch and a west to east storm track will allow time for seas to
increase with seas in the 20 to 25 foot range once they arrive in
our area. Seas will rise again over the weekend with the next
storm system, but there is still too much uncertainty to be more
specific with wave heights. Bentley

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 8 pm pst
Wednesday for cascades in lane county-northern oregon
cascades.

Wa... Winter storm warning from 7 am Tuesday to 8 pm pst Wednesday
for south washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning from 1 am to 10 pm pst Tuesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 1 am pst Tuesday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pst Tuesday.

Gale warning from 7 am to 10 pm pst Tuesday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am pst Tuesday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi44 min 44°F1026.3 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi44 min 51°F1026 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi44 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 46°F 43°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi21 minESE 410.00 miFair44°F42°F93%1026.5 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi21 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy42°F39°F92%1026.6 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi21 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy42°F41°F96%1026.3 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi21 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1026.2 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi21 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds42°F42°F100%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE3E63S34E6SE6CalmS4S3Calm3S54W4S5SW3CalmN4CalmSE4E6SE4
1 day agoSE5SE6SE6SE8E9SE8E8S7S6E10E10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Kelley Point
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 05:31 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM PST     8.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:03 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:55 PM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.34.93.42.11.20.80.92.457.38.38.27.66.75.54.43.532.73.45.37.27.87.6

Tide / Current Tables for Knapp Landing, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Knapp Landing
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 04:43 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:13 AM PST     8.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:15 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:55 PM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.62.31.30.80.82.14.77.28.38.27.76.75.64.53.632.83.25.17.17.87.66.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.