Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Shore, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:42PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 6:55 PM PST (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 9:52PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 232 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
In the main channel.. General seas...combined seas 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 ft tonight through Wednesday night. * first ebb...around 815 pm Tuesday. Seas near 6 ft. * second ebb...around 930 am Wednesday. Seas near 6 ft. * third ebb...around 915 pm Wednesday. Seas near 9 ft.
PZZ200 232 Pm Pst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A series of low pressure systems will remain well to the northwest over the next several days. A weakening front will affect the waters tonight, moving ashore Wed. High pressure builds over the waters for Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Shore, WA
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location: 45.65, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 132216
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
215 pm pst Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis Offshore flow through the gorge will continue to weaken
tonight and Wednesday. A weak frontal system passes over the area
tonight and Wednesday, but precipitation will favor the north half.

Another weak impulse drops southeast from british columbia late
Thursday night and Friday morning. Strong high pressure returns over
the weekend and is expected to hold into early next week. This will
also result in another round of east wind through the columbia gorge.

Short term Tonight through Friday... East wind continues through
the gorge this afternoon, but not quite as strong as early this
morning. At 21z the kttd-kdls gradient was around -6.0 mb. This was
enough to produce 55 mph gusts at crown point and 40-45 mph at
corbett. 18z NAM suggests the kttd-kdls gradient will drop to around
-3.5 mb by 12z wed, which is several hours slower than the 12z
version. This trend is more plausible considering the stratus field
piled up in the central gorge and upper hood river valley, which is
indicative of cross-cascade flow. Kttd profiler indicates a rapid
weakening of the primary east wind core late this afternoon.

Another added forecast twist is the potential for california wildfire
smoke to be over the area. The 12z hrrr 6000 ft agl smoke product
indicates some degree of drift smoke to be over the region tonight.

The strengthening SW 850 mb flow will push it east late tonight and
wed, but higher concentrations are possible over the south part of
the area, such as lane county. Less cloud cover tonight and minimal
to no wind could lead to short-term periods of moderate to unhealthy
for sensitive groups air quality categories.

Although not in the forecast or grids, would not be surprised to see
isolated flurries fall out of the stratus field in the central gorge
and upper hood river valley. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a
weakening low level front just inside 130w at 21z that will likely
stall just off the washington coast late this evening. The 12z nam
was a little slower with it, which makes sense as it enounters strong
surface high pressure. However, the 850 mb sw-w flow strengthens to
20-30 kt tonight and wed. This should be enough to help scour the
cold air in the central gorge and upper hood river valley. Rain still
appears very unlikely across our southern zones, including places
like corvallis and eugene. With the bulk of the upper level support
moving eastward across southern canada wed, the front should stall
out across our northern zones and fall apart Wednesday night into
early Thursday with rain chances decreasing fairly quickly during
that time.

H5 high pressure will be centered along 130-135w Thu night. This is
far enough offshore to allow short-waves within northwest flow aloft
to be in close proximity to the area. One such feature slides across
ne washington 12z fri. Models suggest there may be enough cyclonic
curvature to the flow for a threat of precip in SW washington and the
north oregon cascades from mt. Hood northward. Southern interior
valleys will likely see areas of fog Thu night through Fri morning.

The upper ridge amplifies Friday afternoon, which will result in
light north low-level flow. Friday could be the start of air quality
issues due to weak transport wind and minimal surface flow.

Fortunately, the 850-700 mb mean layer flow Fri will be nw-n. This
would not be favorable for transport of california smoke into the
forecast area. Weishaar

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... Deterministic models are
in agreement that a sharp upper level ridge will remain over the
forecast area from Friday night into Saturday resulting in dry
conditions. Both the GFS and ECMWF show precipitation arriving along
the coast by Monday night as a weak front pushes on shore. This
precipitation pattern looks to stay in the extended forecast through
Tuesday and into Wednesday. Weak winds in the willamette valley
allow for the persistence of early morning fog and temperatures
trend slightly downward and stay within seasonal norms. -bphillips

Aviation GenerallyVFR conditions expected next 18 hours with
rain moving onshore across the northern terminals mainly after
daybreak to late morning Wednesday. However, an approaching cold
front will bring lowering CIGS with occasional MVFR CIGS today
at kast and become likely after 10z Wednesday. Konp will also
likely see MVFR CIGS after 18z with an outside chance of ifr
cigs. MVFR CIGS could develop at khio after 18z Wednesday but
have moderate confidence at best. Additionally, shallow ground
fog is possible at the south end of the willamette valley keug
between 11z and 16z Wednesday, but it remains unlikely to cause
any significant restriction to vis or cigs.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conds through 15 00z. However, lowering
ceilings appear to drop below fl035 impacting visual approaches
after 15z. Easterly winds out of the gorge, will continue to
impact kttd and kpdx, but the winds are expected to weaken slowly
today. Of note: these gusty winds are confined in a shallow
layer near the surface. Pilots should expect dramatically weaker
winds above fl020. Jbonk

Marine An approaching cold front has slowed from earlier
forecasts. SCA level winds of 21+ kts are sitting just outside
the northwest corner of our waters per an earlier satellite
derived wind pass. Still expect gusts around 25 kt for tonight
across the northern waters, but have delayed the onset of the
inner waters until about mid-evening. Have also delayed the
frontal passage by a few hours. Now expect the front will move
onshore around mid-day Wednesday with winds becoming light
westerly behind the front. High pres will build over the waters
for Thu and fri, bringing a period of northerly winds. Then more
offshore flow is looking increasingly likely next weekend but not
especially strong at this point.

Seas will remain 5 ft then build into the 7 to 9 ft range tonight
with the front. A trailing dynamic swell train will then briefly
bring westerly seas near 10 ft late Wednesday night and early
Thursday. Seas than drop to between 5 and 8 feet for several days
thereafter. Jbonk

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 10 am pst Wednesday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 6 pm this evening to noon
pst Wednesday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to cascade head or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 33 mi37 min 1027.8 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi37 min 1026.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 65 mi37 min E 5.1 G 9.9 49°F 52°F1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi62 minVar 310.00 miFair42°F30°F65%1028.9 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi62 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F30°F65%1028.7 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR10 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1028.6 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR12 mi62 minN 06.00 miFair with Haze36°F30°F82%1028.9 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR21 mi62 minE 19 G 2910.00 miFair and Breezy42°F30°F65%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE7SE7SE6SE5SE7SE8SE7SE3E6SE4SE7SE10CalmSE6SE4SE5E9SE66SE7SE4SE73
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W6NW4W5E9E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Tue -- 06:34 AM PST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:25 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:06 PM PST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:08 PM PST     1.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM PST     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:51 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:43 PM PST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.60.50.50.30.10.10.30.81.21.41.31.1111.110.90.80.91.31.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Tue -- 06:03 AM PST     6.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM PST     3.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:46 PM PST     7.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:53 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.82.13.75.26.36.76.45.74.73.93.33.13.64.86.17.17.36.964.73.32.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.