Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Odell, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:15PM Friday October 20, 2017 9:21 AM PDT (16:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Odell, OR
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.67, -121.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 kpqr 201556
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
855 am pdt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis Wet october weather continues. Showers today, and maybe a
few thunderstorms. Then heavier rain spreads across region Saturday
morning. Brief let up in the rain towards Sat evening, but as cold
front arrives Sat night, rain will increase again. Showers on Sunday
as the front drops south of the region. High pressure builds over
the region early next week, with dry weather on tap that very well
may last for the week.

Short term Today through Sunday... No changes to current forecasts.

Previous discussion is as follows: lots of showers persist across
sw washington and NW oregon this morning, as a cool upper level
trough begins to push onshore. The cool air aloft will keep our
weather unsettled throughout the day, with a couple thunderstorms
possible. Low to mid level shear exists, but looks rather weak; with
0-3km shear values are generally around 20 kt today on the 06z nam
soundings for the willamette valley. Plus it appears the core of
coolest air aloft will move across the forecast area this morning,
with temps warming aloft and gradually capping convection as this
afternoon progresses. While there may be some heavier showers that
produce brief downpours and spotty small hail, it appears doubtful
any thunderstorms will approach severe limits today. Snow levels will
be low enough for a few more inches of snow on the cascade passes,
with more substantial snow for the higher ski resort elevations. The
winter weather advisory looks marginal for the cascades, but we will
allow it to continue as plenty of showers look to be on their way.

Showers will decrease this evening as the air mass stabilizes with
the loss of solar heating and warm advection aloft. However, this
warm advection aloft will be the beginning of a period of isentropic
lift which will cause steadier stratiform rain to increase as a warm
front approaches tonight. Strong low-level winds will enhance
precipitation both due to more efficient isentropic lift and
orographic lift in the higher terrain; both the latest NAM and gfs
suggest 850 mb winds will be w-sw around 50 knots by 12z Sat morning.

This will result in impressive rainfall rates Saturday morning,
especially in the higher terrain.

Assuming the warm front moves east across the cascades early Saturday
afternoon as the 06z nam GFS suggest, much if not all of the forecast
area will be in the warm sector Saturday afternoon, with snow levels
rising above 8000 feet. Southwest winds approach 50 kt all the way
down to 925 mb Saturday afternoon. This will often result windy but
relatively dry weather for the willamette valley while the coast
range, cascades and willapa hills get hammered with persistent
orographic rain. Models suggest the frontal zone will linger near sw
washington Saturday afternoon and evening before finally sagging back
southward Saturday night and Sunday morning. Rain will gradually ease
later Sunday as the frontal zone drifts south and weakens.

The progression of this front and the magnitude of 850 mb flow are
somewhat reminiscent of the halloween 2015 heavy rain event across
the pdx metro, with one major difference; that event occurred close
to evening rush hour and this one will occur during the late
night early am period in the middle of a weekend. Nonetheless, there
will probably be urban and small stream flooding issues if this
forecast pans out. Some smaller rivers may even make a run at minor
flood stage; the grays in rosburg and a couple of coastal drainages
in the coast range come to mind. Additionally, rainfall rates appear
likely to reach values of concern for our burn scar areas; especially
the eagle creek burn scar which is near where we expect the heaviest
rain to fall. Considered issuing a flood watch on this shift, but
will allow our hydrologist and the day shift to take a look at 12z
runs before making the final call.

Overall rainfall totals this weekend look to range from 5 to 10
inches in the cascades, coast range, and willapa hills north of
highway 20. Coastal areas will likely be in the 3 to 6 inch range,
while 2 to 4 inches appear likely for the inland valleys. Of our
forecast area, lane county appears likely to spend the least time
under the aim of this atmospheric river. Therefore QPF totals for
lane county will probably be about half of the values listed above.

Will also need to consider the wind associated with this system,
given the 45-60 kt w-sw flow just above the surface. As mentioned
above, most of the forecast area will be in the warm sector by sat
afternoon if all GOES according to plan. This will allow good mixing
of the boundary layer, and pressure gradients turn more
south-to-north during the day Saturday. Cannot rule out south wind
gusts 35-45 mph for the willamette valley Saturday afternoon and
evening; the higher end of which would warrant a wind advisory,
especially considering most trees are still bearing plenty of leaves.

Again, with this situation being borderline, will allow the day shift
to take a look at 12z runs before making any decisions on an advisory
inland or regarding the high wind watch for the coast and coast
range. This could end up being one of those situations where winds
along the coast are only slightly stronger than the winds inland.

All in all, it appears our autumn storm season is beginning in
earnest this weekend, if it hasn't already. We strongly urge people
to check their storm drains for clogs due to fallen leaves today, as
this is a common cause of significant urban flooding. Weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows...

Sunday night through Thursday... .Models are in agreement, that
shortwave ridging will develop over the pacific NW early next week.

This will bring a period of dry weather that will likely be followed,
by a weak trough towards the middle of the week. This will provide
the chance for more rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are
suggesting that another ridge of high pressure could bring a dry
period late next week. Bishop

Aviation Vfr prevailing today in a showery weather pattern,
although there will be occasional MVFR conditions with the showers,
most widespread through 20z. Local short-lived ifr conditions are
also possible today. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms
today through about 00z. Tonight still mainlyVFR conditions,
although there is a chance for seeing MVFR CIGS develop after 08z
mainly along the coast.

Kpdx and approaches... MainlyVFR conditions today and tonight.

Temporary MVFR conditions with showers are likely today, with the
best chances through 21z.

Marine A large long period westerly swell from 17 to 20 ft this
morning will slowly subside today and tonight. Winds, gusting to 25
kt particularly near showers, will slowly back to the west-northwest
and weaken as a weak ridge of high pres begins to push in from the
west.

Winds switch around to the south-southeast this evening, then
increase again later in the night as a strong frontal system
approaches from the west. Gale warning is already out, from late
tonight through Sat night. There may be a temporary slackening of
the winds midday Sat once the warm front moves across, but winds
should pick up again later in the day as a cold front drops se
across the waters. Seas are likely to rebuild again into the 17 t 20
ft range Sat and Sat night, aided by the local wind driven seas.

Sun and Mon will see improving conditions on the coastal waters as
high pres moves across the area.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for
cascades in lane county-northern oregon cascades.

High surf advisory until 10 am pdt this morning for central
oregon coast-north oregon coast.

High wind watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for central coast range of western oregon-central
oregon coast-coast range of northwest oregon-north oregon
coast.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for south
washington cascades.

High surf advisory until 10 am pdt this morning for south
washington coast.

High wind watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for south washington coast-willapa hills.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 4 pm pdt this afternoon
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head to florence
or out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm-waters from cascade head to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 2 am Saturday to 5 am pdt Sunday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10
nm-coastal waters from cascade head to florence or out 10
nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from
10 to 60 nm-waters from cascade head to florence or from
10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 am pdt Saturday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head to florence
or out 10 nm-waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade
head or from 10 to 60 nm-waters from cascade head to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pdt Saturday.

Interact with us via social media:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 81 mi124 min 57°F1006.5 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Dalles Municipal Airport, WA21 mi29 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F41°F64%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
G20
SW6W6----SW65SW5
G15
5SW11
G18
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Ellsworth
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Fri -- 04:26 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:38 AM PDT     7.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:27 PM PDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:34 PM PDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.731.60.4-0.20.12.35.27.47.97.46.45.13.92.71.71.21.43.56.48.58.88.17

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Vancouver
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:12 AM PDT     7.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:18 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:02 PM PDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:13 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:08 PM PDT     8.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
42.410.1-0.30.83.56.37.97.775.94.63.32.21.41.12.14.87.48.88.67.76.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.