Thursday, February22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Odell, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:49PM Thursday February 22, 2018 2:59 AM PST (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Odell, OR
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location: 45.67, -121.54     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220459
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
859 pm pst Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis Cool weather stays over the region into next week with
northerly flow aloft. A shortwave trough will likely provide more
accumulating low-elevation snow late tonight into early thu.

Additional troughs will continue a threat for rain and low-elevation
snow this weekend into early next week.

Short term Tonight through Thursday night... As alluded to in the
previous discussion, we made a few changes to the winter weather
advisory, namely to add the south willamette valley and our northern
coastal zones to the advisory.

Precip briefly fell as rain at kast before changing over to snow,
though temperatures remain slightly above freezing at the airport.

Current klgx radar and 00z runs of the 3 km NAM and hrrr suggest a
couple of healthy snow bands will make their way down the
coast... Likely enough for an inch or two of accumulation above the
immediate beaches. Best chance for significant accumulation along the
coast will be on the capes and in the hills, a few hundred feet above
sea level. However, some minor slushy accumulations of less than an
inch are possible down to sea level, and coastal valley slightly
inland locations such as tillamook and knappa also stand a better
chance to receive an inch or two than the immediate beaches. Models
and radar trends suggest the main batch of precipitation will travel
south along the coast with tonight's low, with perhaps a couple snow
showers in the instability behind it... But not enough to warrant
continuing the advisory beyond midnight tonight.

Latest model runs have also trended a bit higher with QPF throughout
the willamette valley, with up to 0.25 to 0.50 inch total in the
central and southern valley. Even with a bit of melting at the onset
and low snow-water ratios, it appears there will be a swath of 2 to 4
inch totals somewhere in the willamette valley. Therefore we expanded
the winter weather advisory southward into the eugene metro;
accumulating snow for the eugene area should start around midnight
tonight, peaking between 1 to 4 am, then taper off shortly before the
morning commute.

The remainder of the winter weather advisory looks to be in good
shape, as latest radar imagery shows light snow already developing
down the i-5 corridor from chehalis down to the pdx metro. Temps are
still generally too warm for accumulation, but this will change as
isentropic lift enhances precip rates and cools the column over the
area. 00z NAM cross-sections through the willamette valley show a
period of excellent lift through the dendritic growth zone, spreading
quickly south through the willamette valley between 06z and 10z. This
could lead to local 1 inch hr snowfall rates, which is also shown in
the NAM and new 00z GFS qpf fields. Considering how quickly precip
changed from rain to snow at astoria in southerly flow, see no reason
now to disbelieve the NAM bufr soundings that show the precip type
mainly as snow throughout the willamette valley and for all but the
central coast of oregon.

It is important to note that there are two low centers associated
with this system, and one is still hanging back over the seattle
metro area. Some models, such as the 3km nam, suggest this portion of
the low will continue to hang back behind the low presently heading
down the coast, possibly causing some light snow to persist into the
morning hours around the pdx metro. Regardless, the impacts from snow
and ice overnight will likely be felt during the morning commute, but
this could be an additional complicating factor. At this point, we
are only going with very minor accumulations from this possible
secondary push of snow Thursday morning, but it will need to be
watched closely.

Eventually skies are expected to clear Thursday, allowing for some
melting of the snow. However, temps will likely top out in only the
mid 30s for most of the lowlands due to the snow cover and even
colder temps aloft. Clear skies persist into Thu night. This,
combined with the likelihood of snow still on the ground for some
locations, will probably lead to low dropping into the low to mid 20s
for much of the lowlands. The gorge and upper hood river valley may
even see lows in the teens. Weagle pyle

Long term Friday through Wednesday... Friday still not out of the
woods Friday for low elevation snow. GFS and NAM indicate yet another
short-wave in northwest to north flow
aloft sliding south along the southern british columbia coast and
early Fri morning. Leading precip edge expected to reach the s
washington and far N oregon coast by 18z fri. Precip then sags south
into clark county and far north willamette valley between 18z and
21z. Model 850 mb temps valid 18z Fri forecast to be -7 to -9c. This
is typically cold enough for snow to the valley floor. However, a
couple of negatives include little to no offshore flow through the
gorge and strengthening south-to-north gradient through the
willamette valley. Initial precip in SW washington and far north
willamette valley will likely be a rain snow mix, or all snow in
areas above 500 ft. Bufkit sounding for kpdx valid 18z shows a
surface temp of around -5c. Believe that is too cold. Low-level air
mass slowly moderates through Fri afternoon, with the GFS indicating
850 mb temps -3 to -6c, with the coldest temps in the gorge and
cascades. South low-level flow in the interior valleys increases fri
afternoon as well.

The cool pattern continues Fri night and sat. Models show another
short-wave impacting the area beginning late Fri night. Model 850 mb
temps expected to be -4 to -6c and there appears to be enough over-
water trajectory and south low-level flow to keep snow levels above
the valley floors. Still looking at snow levels around 1000 to 1500
ft across much of the area Sat morning. Weishaar

Aviation Snow starting to move south across the area.

Initially visibilities are dropping to the 2 to 3 mile range.

However, a period of heavier snow will bring visibilities down to
1 2 mile for a few hours at each of the TAF sites as the heavier
snow moves south. This has already been observed in astoria and
will move into khio, kpdx, and kttd in the next hour. Only
significant changes was to add more snow than rain for the keug
based on latest model guidance.

Pdx and approaches... Expect snow intensity to reach 1 2sm within
the next hour or two and stay there for a few hours before slowly
improving through the overnight hours. Bentley

Marine The next surface low along the b.C. Coast will move
over the washington coastal waters this evening and into the
oregon waters after midnight, then onshore around newport by
sunrise Thursday. This low is looking strong enough to produce
nw gales on the back side of the low over the outer waters, with
seas building to 10-12 ft. Inner water winds look below small
craft advisory levels for now but could get gusts up close to 20
kt in the prefrontal southerlies.

Another low pressure center will drop SE out of the gulf of
alaska over the weekend. This should have a longer fetch of nw
winds on the back side of the low that will likely drive seas
well into the teens, but models have wavered quite a bit on how
high seas will peak and exactly when. At least mid teens seem
reasonable for now. Look for small craft advisory threshold nw
winds with this system across our waters as well. Pt

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Thursday for greater
portland metro area-lower columbia-western columbia river

Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Thursday for coast range
of northwest oregon-northern oregon cascade foothills.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am pst Thursday for cascade
foothills in lane county-central coast range of western
oregon-central willamette valley-south willamette valley.

Winter weather advisory until midnight pst tonight for north
oregon coast.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 6 am pst Thursday for greater
vancouver area-i-5 corridor in cowlitz county-western
columbia river gorge.

Winter weather advisory until midnight pst tonight for south
washington coast.

Pz... Gale warning until 2 am pst Thursday for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 7 am pst Thursday for waters from cascade
head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 81 mi42 min 40°F1020.6 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Dalles Municipal Airport, WA21 mi67 minN 03.00 miLight Snow28°F21°F78%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 12:14 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:42 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:33 AM PST     8.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:18 PM PST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Thu -- 12:14 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:43 AM PST     1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:07 AM PST     8.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM PST     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.