Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:37PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:45AMMoonset 7:40PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1038 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Today..Light winds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201709212245;;716387 FZUS53 KAPX 211438 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1038 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-212245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211744
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
144 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Update
Issued at 1051 am edt Thu sep 21 2017
updated for sky cover trends (faster clearing) while increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances in the northeastern section of the
forecast area. Clouds are dissipating rather quickly this morning.

This will leave lots of sunshine which should be mixing with
heating of the day instability cumulus formation shortly. Light
winds today should allow for lake breezes to form which should be
the trigger for showers and storms, mainly off of lake huron from
mid afternoon through early evening. Models show a healthy amount
of mixed layer CAPE (2000-2500 j kg) out that way. Could even see
some gusty winds and with pwats in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range,
some locally heavy rainfall.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid...

high impact weather potential... Few strong t-storms possible this
afternoon early evening northern lower mi.

Incoming cold front pushing east of mqt-esc-grb. Broken line of
showers t-storms just ahead of the front is impacting portions of
northern mi. The front will lay over across central lower mi by
late today, while a trailing bubble high transits the lk superior
james bay areas. Return flow will start to get going again tonight
as the high move into quebec, though this return flow will be much
stronger to our west. Precip trends and temps are the main concerns.

Ongoing precip is thinning out (and has been struggling for much of
the event) south of m-32. A band of stronger storms still exists
from just east of drummond isl to presque isle co. Expect
northern activity to exit to the ne, with lingering showers to the
south continuing to dissipate. Cams favor current convection
fading out by 12-13z, as instability fades and forcing lifts out
into canada.

That will leave us with a warm and humid airmass, but a healthy
amount of cloud cover early on. Clouds will thin with time, with a
mostly cloudy morning giving way to a partly sunny and hazy
afternoon. Temps will climb quickly in this warm airmass, and temps
look to reach in the mid upper 70s in the straits area and points
north, and 80s elsewhere. Gladwin the most likely spot to take a
run at the upper 80s. (these values are generally a few degrees
short of record highs.)
dew points in the upper 60s to around 70f (!) will support mlcape
values a bit in the 1-1.5k j kg range. Warm temps aloft (15c at
circa 825 mb) will provide a weak cap, but lake breezes may have
enough forcing to get thru that. After pops dwindle early this
morning, will return a broad area of northern lower mi to chance
pops this afternoon, with a slight chance for redevelopment in
eastern upper. 0-6km bulk shear is anemic (10kt or less), but we
have enough instability moisture for some strongish wet
microbursts.

Any diurnal convection here will diminish this evening. However,
with some return flow getting going overnight, the instability plume
will make northward progress tonight even as it wanes. This will be
especially notable in western central upper mi, where return flow is
stronger. Still, pulses of deep convection could generate there
tonight, and propagate eastward into our northern sections. Chance
pops returns to far northern lower and eastern upper mi, mainly
overnight. Elsewhere, threat for some fog returns. Min temps mid 60s
to around 70f.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry for the weekend...

high impact weather potential... None
pattern synopsis forecast... There could be some showers left over
from the night, but for the most part the 500 mb ridge begins to
amplify and the 850 mb and 700 mb levels warm. This caps the region,
to a certain extent, and with the lack of a kicker(front or jet) the
think that the limited pops in E upper in the morning and dry
through the afternoon looks good. The ridge continues to amp up, and
continues the dry weather through Sunday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... If we could get any kind of kicker to
start precipitation, the MLCAPE is over 1500 j kg. However, looking
at the ml parcels on the skew-t, there is some weak capping so don't
think that anything gets going.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry early in the week then rain to move in by mid week...

extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... Sunday through Tuesday
morning, the 500 mb ridge continues to keep the region dry. Tuesday
afternoon, the ridge finally breaks down and the cold front begins
to move into the forecast area. There could be some thunder, but at
this point, thinking it is unlikely as we are pretty well capped as
the front moves through the region. Wednesday, there is a timing
difference in the GFS and the ECMWF 500 mb lows are placed
differently upstream. The ECMWF idea brings in le rain showers on
Wednesday and brisk temperatures, while the GFS is slower with the
main trough at 500 mb having yet to rotate into the region (not
until Thursday). So think that there will be some showers around,
but no confidence in this forecast for days 6 and 7.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 136 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017
there could be a few popup showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening from the heating of the day, best chance is at apn
with lesser chances at the other TAF sites. Patchy fog and
possible areas of low clouds may form tonight in the humid
airmass. Mostly sunny hot and humid conditions expected during the
day Friday.

Marine
Issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017
decaying cold front will slow and stall as it crosses northern
lake mi and reaches central lower mi by early tonight. Surface
winds will be relatively light while the front is in the vicinity.

Southerly winds will ramp up into Friday and Friday night, and
some choppy conditions will develop on lake mi, especially toward
the far north end of the lake. Advisory-level waves are a
possibility.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... As
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 16 mi42 min NE 8 72°F 68°F65°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 1016 hPa (-0.4)62°F
45175 21 mi22 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 68°F1017 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi42 min N 8 G 8.9 68°F 1016.1 hPa (+0.0)68°F
45022 40 mi22 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 71°F 69°F1017.7 hPa71°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi42 min WNW 1 G 1 1016.1 hPa (+0.0)
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi42 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)66°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi47 minNE 710.00 miFair75°F68°F81%1016.9 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi67 minENE 410.00 miFair76°F68°F77%1017.3 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi48 minNE 510.00 miOvercast82°F70°F67%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE10S8SE5CalmCalmSE4SE5SE4SE7CalmSE5SE5E9SE4S5S6SW4NW3N7NE5NE3NE5NE7
1 day agoNE9NE12E9E5E4E5CalmSE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE5SE4E3SE5SE7SE9SE10
G15
2 days agoN3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E7E9E11
G15
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.