Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:06PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:44 PM EST (01:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 6:18AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 812 Pm Edt Wed Oct 3 2018
.strong Thunderstorms over northern lake michigan... The areas affected include... Lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5nm offshore... Lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5nm offshore to mid lake... Norwood mi to 5nm west of mackinac bridge including little traverse bay... SEul choix point to 5nm west of mackinac bridge... Straits of mackinac within 5 nm of mackinac bridge including mackinac island... At 810 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 35 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm northwest of point patterson to near north manitou island, moving east at 45 knots. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 35 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive. && lat...lon 4554 8613 4584 8590 4601 8586 4602 8570 4608 8564 4616 8540 4594 8474 4587 8472 4591 8461 4566 8461 4571 8472 4570 8485 4555 8503 4549 8500 4546 8486 4536 8485 4530 8556 4527 8561 4518 8621
LHZ345 Expires:201810040145;;198074 FZUS73 KAPX 040012 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 812 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2018 LHZ345-LMZ341-342-362-364-040145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 172309
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
609 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 243 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: early afternoon composite analysis shows
iowa centered shortwave trough steadily shearing out as it heads
into great lakes centered mid level confluence axis. Broad area of
mostly light snow tied to this shortwave, extending from the upper
mississippi valley into the southern great lakes. Some of this snow
trying mightily to punch into our southern areas, although without
too much success as dry northeast flow rotating around elongated
southern canada high pressure is keeping much of it from reaching
the surface. Otherwise, another uneventful day (2 in a row!!), with
plenty of clouds and some lake induced flurries rotating off
northern lake huron.

Iowa shortwave will continue to shear out tonight as it heads across
the southern great lakes. While this system will clip southern areas
will a bit of very light snow, than canadian high pressure will
exert much more influence, keeping much of the area dry and
seasonably chilly tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing snow evolution and
amounts, primarily late this afternoon and evening. Overnight cloud
and temperature trends.

Details: a battle of opposing airmasses, with that dry northeast
flow largely winning the battle later this afternoon and overnight.

Pattern recognition and guidance derived sounding analysis both
suggest snow will have a real struggle reaching the surface north of
m-72, with only somewhat better further south. Both very weak
forcing and limited moisture suggests any snow that does fall will
be light, with accumulations likely remaining under an inch. Given
what we have gone through, definitely not a big deal at all. Will
also likely see a few lake huron induced flurries rotating into
northeast lower michigan, with mostly cloudy but dry conditions
prevailing elsewhere. Those clouds and maintenance of northeast
surface winds will keep temperatures a smidge warmer than those
observed this past night, with readings mostly in the single digits
and teens. Of course, those winds will make it feel a few degrees
colder.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 243 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: expansive high pressure drifting across
the great lakes Monday through Tuesday is expected to lead to fairly
tranquil conditions across the forecast area, although sufficient
over-lake instability may yield some light lake effect snow
showers flurries Monday evening into Tuesday across portions of
northwest lower and eastern upper, despite rather limited moisture
fields. Attention then shifts to the Wednesday time frame as a mid-
level wave and developing area of surface low pressure trek from the
mid-mississippi valley toward the lower lakes ohio valley region,
likely bringing a period of accumulating snow to much of northern
michigan.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: light lake effect chances
through Tuesday. Snow chances amounts Wednesday.

Anomalously strong high pressure is expected to slide across the
region during the day Monday as Sunday night's system focused to our
south shifts off to the east. Northerly flow will bring a marginally
colder airmass to much of northern michigan through the day Monday,
evident by h8 temps falling to near -16 c by Monday afternoon.

However, anemic moisture, sub 3 kft inversion heights and
weakening backing wind fields should prevent anything more than
nuisance flurries or light lake effect snow showers from developing.

This would affect mainly N nnw flow snow belts of both lake superior
and michigan, but certainly doesn't look like anything impactful.

By Monday night, high pressure slides overhead allowing boundary
layer winds to decouple resulting in perhaps some enhanced
convergence along the lake michigan and superior coastlines,
marginally enhancing light lake effect snow showers for a period of
time late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Given continued weak
wind fields, any snow showers should remain limited near the coasts
and nothing of real impact as moisture continues to look rather
paltry
by late Tuesday afternoon, low-mid level warm air advection is
expected to be underway ahead of the next approaching system, set to
cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A developing
surface low is expected to trek from the south-central plains into
the great lakes, spreading mainly light snow from southwest to
northeast across the region beginning early Wednesday morning across
our southwestern counties before spreading northeastward toward far
nw lower and eastern upper by midday. Model consensus QPF generally
ranges from 0.20-0.30 inches resulting in a general 2-4 inches of
accumulation... Highest across the tip of the mitt into eastern upper
where more robust forcing is expected Wednesday afternoon. Would
expect some refinement to snowfall accumulation and timing over the
next couple of days. Not nearly as windy as the past couple of
systems with south-southeast winds gusting up to 15 mph during the
day Wednesday. Snow tapers off Wednesday evening into early
Wednesday night as the system begins to exit the region to the east.

High temperatures Monday ranging from the middle teens to the lower
20s area wide before consistently warming a couple of degrees each
day through Wednesday. Wednesday's highs expected to vary from the
mid-upper 20s across the forecast area.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 243 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal for now.

Perhaps some lingering light lake effect snow showers at times
Thursday into Friday, although limited moisture and over-lake
instability would suggest nothing of impact. The next chance for
widespread snow arrives Saturday as another system ramps up across
the midsection of the country before trekking northeastward toward
the great lakes. Much uncertainty exists during this time frame, but
bears watching moving forward.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 609 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
low pressure will continue to track thru the ohio valley this
evening... Moving into the NE us overnight and Monday. Northern
edge of the associated moisture shield will remain over northern
lower michigan this evening and will then begin to pull eastward
as the low departs. LowVFR high MVFR CIGS will hold over our
region tonight... Along with a small chance of snow showers thru
the evening. Clouds will diminish on Monday as high pressure and
drier air build back into the western great lakes region. NE winds
aob 10 kts tonight will become northerly on Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Near term... mb
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi57 min NE 8 G 9.9 13°F 33°F1017.7 hPa-4°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi57 min N 5.1 G 6 7°F 34°F1016.8 hPa3°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi57 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 1017.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi63 min Calm G 1 10°F 1017.2 hPa2°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi50 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy16°F8°F72%1016.9 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi50 minNNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy16°F7°F69%1016.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi51 minNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy13°F5°F70%1019 hPa

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E11
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NE9NE10NE7NE4
1 day agoW11W8NW12
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NW11NW7NW9NW5NW6NW6NW6NW5NW8
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2 days agoNE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmSW3W15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.