Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 11:42 AM   Moonset 1:42 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 134 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 3 to 4 ft through Thursday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.56 kt at 1110 am Wednesday. Seas to 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 2.6 kt at 1211 am Thursday. Seas to 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.24 kt at 1213 pm Thursday. Seas to 5 ft.

PZZ200 134 Am Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure with breezy northerly winds through Wednesday. A cold front moves inland on Thursday from the northeast pacific, bringing a shift to northwesterly winds. High pressure rebuilds over the waters Friday into the weekend.

FXUS66 KPQR 151006 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 306 AM PDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure lingers through Wednesday as a weak trough begins to ascend from the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday.
While a pattern shift is in store, precipitation will be minimal. Zonal flow follows which will keep the weather mild and dry.

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday Night...High pressure continues to build over the next 24 hours and will reach it's peak intensity this afternoon. Have seen a return of the marine stratus which, as of 2 AM is sitting just offshore. However, over the next few hours it will push inland filling the north Oregon and south Washington Coasts, and moving through the Coast Range Valleys. High resolution models are showing increasing clouds once again around the Portland-Metro including Vancouver, Camas and Troutdale. However, the inland clouds will burn off fairly quickly as the sun rises and conditions begin to warm.

Overnight temperatures are trending nearly ten degrees warmer than the previous night, so a persistence forecast for daytime highs will be skewed. Decided to incorporate the 90th percentile to the interior lowlands as the warmer temperatures overnight will act as a springboard for daytime highs. Conditions will see minimal change from what occurred on Tuesday - clear skies, warm temperatures, and northerly winds.

Thursday on the other hand will see a pattern shift as a shortwave trough tracks southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska.
At 500 mb, there are some isolated bands of absolutely vorticity, but most of the activity is to the north. This is coupled at the jet stream as a band of 115 kt winds moves over the forecast area Thursday. This support, along with the cold frontal band, will initiate precipitation. A majority of the precipitation will fall north of Marion County in Oregon. The orographic lift over the Cascades will enhance the precipitation and keep it going a bit longer. Ultimately though, the amount of precipitation is non-impactful, and will be fairly benign.
-Muessle

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...As the cooler front exits the region, zonal flow will take over. Temperatures will settle out and stay fairly consistent through Saturday. Another low pressure system will move over Canada extending a trough over the west. This trough will bring another round of precipitation and a gradual cool down. The ridging to the east though will cause winds to amplify. Through the Columbia River Gorge we could see some gustier winds on Saturday.

The pattern gets pretty messy on Sunday. Looking at the 500 mb heights cluster analysis, there are a few that are showing a ridge redeveloping, others a trough, and others maintain the zonal flow. The outcome leads to a low confidence forecast in regards to temperature and wind. NBM temperatures have quite the spread on Sunday through Tuesday with the 90th percentile reaching 80 degrees. However, deterministic models are suggesting temperatures in the mid-60s, with westerly winds.
-Muessle

AVIATION
High pressure will bring mainly VFR flight conditions today as mostly clear skies remain in place over the region. The exception is along the coast where an LIFR to IFR marine stratus deck is currently expanding southward from KAST down towards KONP.
Still expecting this stratus deck to move into KONP by 12z Wednesday, but possibly as early at 10z. Gusty north winds will redevelop along the coast Wednesday afternoon and linger through the evening hours, strongest at KONP where gusts should peak around 25 kt.

Although skies were mainly clear over inland areas as of 09z Wednesday, there is a 55-85% chance of MVFR cigs developing over and near KTTD between 12-18z (best chance around 15z). Will maintain MVFR cigs in the KTTD TAF as this still appears to be the most likely outcome.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flight conditions are likely to continue over the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies. That being said, there is a 40-50% chance for a brief period of MVFR cigs between 13-17z Wednesday at the KPDX terminal. The most likely outcome will be for MVFR cigs to stay confined to the east of KPDX, impacting KTTD. -TK

MARINE
High pressure continues over the waters today, resulting in a typical summertime northerly wind regime. Similar to yesterday, northerly winds will peak in strength during the afternoon and evening hours with gusts to around 25 kt to the north of Cape Foulweather and gusts to 30 kt to the south.
Therefore, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones to continue through the afternoon for the northern waters, through the evening for the central waters, and through Wednesday night for the southern waters. Winds should temporarily fall below small craft criteria on Thursday as a weak cold front moves inland, but should increase behind the front Thursday evening with gusts to around 25 kt.

Seas will generally remain between 5 to 9 feet over the next few days as a primary northwest swell continues along with northerly wind waves. -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251- 271.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252- 272.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273.

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