Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 4:33 AM   Moonset 7:41 PM

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FXUS65 KBYZ 072147 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 347 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

DISCUSSION

Rest of Today through Wednesday...

The strong winds ongoing across the region this afternoon will begin to taper off this evening through tonight as the core of the 700 mb winds slides south. As this occurs, eastern and central areas will see winds taper off first, with areas along the southern foothills holding on to the strong winds the longest. By Wednesday morning, the strongest winds will be done. Breezy conditions will remain tomorrow, but wind gusts will only be in the 15 to 30 mph range. As far as the High Wind Warnings go, everything looks to remain on track. A few increased gusts may hang on in the east over the higher hills early this evening, but these gusts will drop quickly once the 700 mb winds decrease. The only change is the Red Lodge Foothills zone being added into the High Wind Warning that will expire at 6AM Wednesday.

Along with the winds, the precipitation across eastern and central areas this afternoon will sink southwest through Billings into the foothills by this evening and tonight. As this occurs, winds look to gradually turn more northerly, allowing better upslope enhancement to occur over the foothills and mountains.
With this, heavy snow is expected in the mountains, generally above 6,500 feet. Overnight tonight, snow levels will be lower, near 5,000 feet, so foothill locations could see light snow.
However, this snow looks to pose minimal to no impact. In the mountains, the snow will be impactful, so a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Absaroka/Beartooth, Crazy, Pryor, and Bighorn Mountains from 6 PM this evening to noon Thursday. Snow amounts look to range from 12-20 inches, with locally greater amounts over the highest peaks, in the warned area. As far as lower elevation rainfall goes, much of the area, outside of Fallon and Carter Counties, have a high chance to see another 0.50 inches of precipitation over the next 24 hours.

Temperatures will drop into the 30s for most tonight before warming into the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday. Arends

Thursday Through Tuesday

KEY MESSAGES

-> Although not as heavy, rain across the lower elevations and snow in the mountains persists through Thursday -> Warm and dry conditions finally return for the weekend into early next week

While the dynamic upper low that's supplied all our moisture the past few days finally moves east across the Central Plains on Thursday, moisture wrapped around it will continue to surge into southern Montana Wednesday Night through Thursday. While the synoptic lift disappears alongside the upper low, deep upslope flow will provide ample lift to continue producing rain across the lower elevations and snow for elevations above 7000 ft. South- central Montana still has 50-70% chance to get at least another 0.25" of rain during this period (this is on top of everything thats would've fallen prior) and a 50-80% chance for the mountains to get at least another 4" of snow (range varying here based on snow levels and temperatures throughout the different elevations).

Friday finally provides a clean slate for southern MT and northern WY, removing the cyclonic flow over the area and introducing a prominent, upper ridge. This brings with it downslope flow, resulting in a quick increase in temperatures and drier conditions. Confidence is high for this warming and drier period to occur through the weekend. Confidence is lower in what weather pattern sets up next week. Majority of models keep a weak ridge over the area, but some embedded shortwaves could occur within it throughout the week, which would provide brief shots of moisture and cooler temperatures. Regardless, expect a nice weekend to finally be outside again. Vertz

AVIATION

Widely scattered showers will continue to push southwest into the foothills and mountains this evening. Over the lower elevations, the rain showers will persist into the day tomorrow. With this activity, periods of MVFR to IFR conditions are possible. Over the mountains and immediate foothills, the snow showers will persist into Thursday morning creating widespread mountain obscurations.
Otherwise, the strong, generally 35-45 kt winds will decrease through tonight into early tomorrow morning across the region.
Arends

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/050 042/060 041/069 045/077 049/077 050/078 051/076 99/R +8/R 10/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 23/T LVM 035/046 038/056 034/066 040/073 044/075 046/075 046/073 99/O 95/R 10/U 00/U 12/T 12/T 23/R HDN 036/053 041/061 039/069 040/078 044/079 048/079 048/076 99/R +8/R 20/U 00/U 11/U 23/T 23/T MLS 039/056 043/063 042/069 044/076 048/077 050/079 050/075 97/R 64/R 10/U 00/U 11/U 12/R 22/R 4BQ 036/051 042/061 042/067 042/075 047/076 049/078 050/076 97/R 85/R 10/U 00/U 11/U 12/R 22/T BHK 036/055 040/063 039/067 041/075 045/074 046/075 047/073 85/R 42/R 10/N 01/U 11/U 12/R 22/R SHR 035/048 038/055 036/065 038/073 042/075 045/075 046/073 79/R +7/R 21/U 01/U 11/U 23/T 23/T

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 29>32-34-42-57-138-170-173-235.
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 36-37-58.
High Wind Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONE 56.
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 AM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 63-65-66-141-172-228.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon MDT Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68-171.
WY...High Wind Warning remains in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 199.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 198.

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