Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rouses Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:58 AM EST (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rouses Point, NY
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location: 45.71, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 200515
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1215 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure building into the northeast will supply another
dry but seasonably cold night tonight before warm air advection
commences Wednesday morning. A quick moving low pressure system
passing to the north and west of the st. Lawrence river will
bring developing snowfall Wednesday night, ending as a wintry
mix early Thursday morning. Snow and sleet amounts will range up
to a couple of inches from the champlain valley westward across
northern new york, with 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet
expected across north-central into northeastern vermont.

Precipitation will end Thursday morning through early Thursday
afternoon, followed by drier weather and seasonably warm
temperatures to finish out the week.

Near term until 10 am this morning
As of 931 pm est Tuesday... Have adjusted temperatures a bit,
some areas have already dropped quite a bit with clear skies and
light winds in place. Still an area of mid layer clouds south of
our northern ny zones, but think it will have minimal impact on
our area. Previous discussion follows.

High pressure will crest overhead tonight, allowing for one
last crisp night with mostly clear skies and seasonably cold
temperatures under effective radiational cooling conditions.

Weak warm air advection will be ongoing through the night under
light southerly return flow, especially over northern new york
west of the center of the high, which will counter radiational
cooling and prevent temperatures from plummeting quite as much
as last night. However, still looking at lows well below normal
in the -10 to +5 range... Warmest in the champlain valley and
coldest in northeastern vermont closer to the core of the high.

High pressure will shift east of the area during the day Wednesday,
prompting winds to turn southerly with increasing warm air advection
through the day. While the morning will start off mostly sunny,
high and mid-level clouds will increase through the day in advance
of the next system, which will impact the area Wednesday night.

Still looking like the majority of the area will stay dry through
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening (including dry for
the Wednesday afternoon commute) before precipitation arrives later
Wednesday evening Wednesday night. Highs Wednesday will be in the
mid to upper 20s.

Short term 10 am this morning through Thursday night
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... A low pressure system tracking through
the great lakes region will push a warm front through the north
country Wednesday night. Isentropic upglide along and ahead of
the front will spread precipitation over the forecast area
starting as light snow in the early overnight hours Wednesday
night. Warm air advection will continue through the night, and a
weak warm nose will develop in response to a southwesterly 850
mb jet pushing in. The warm air advection will allow for snow to
progressively change over to a wintry mix (primarily sleet)
through the night from west to east. A brief period of freezing
rain is possible during this transition time, however with
maximum temperatures in the warm layer aloft only progged
between 0 and 2 degrees c, the overall freezing rain threat
looks low. As far as timing of the snow to wintry mix
transition goes, northern new york will switch over between
midnight and sunrise Thursday morning, while vermont will hold
onto primarily snow through the early morning hours. Thus, there
will be a west to east gradient of snow sleet totals for
Wednesday night Thursday morning, with generally 1-3" expected
in northern new york and the champlain valley, and 2-4" expected
along and east of the green mountains in vermont.

Temperatures will quickly rise to above freezing Thursday
morning, and any residual snow or sleet will become light rain.

A rapidly advancing dry slot will quickly end most of the rain
through the morning, and a general drying trend will be observed
for the remainder of the day. The exception will be western
slopes of the northern adirondacks and northern greens, which
could hold on to some light showers through the day. Highs
Thursday will warm into the low to mid 40s, and winds will
become gusty in response to steepening lapse rates during the
daytime hours, particularly after precipitation ends. Westerly
winds 15-25 mph can be expected during the day, with gusts to
up to 35 mph possible.

Thursday night will be mostly dry with diminishing winds.

Temperatures will be fairly mild with lows in the 20s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 318 pm est Tuesday... Friday starts out mostly dry with
some lingering mountain snow showers under light northwest flow.

The snow showers shouldn't account for much in the way of
accumulation and will likely taper off in the early evening as
the the flow turns more zonal aloft. High pressure builds in to
start the weekend as both Friday and Saturday should be fairly
pleasant with highs in the mid 30s Friday and mid to upper 30s
Saturday.

The quiet weather is short lived as a system will push into the
great lakes region Saturday night and will bring widespread
precipitation to the north country Sunday through Monday. A
vertically phased low pressure system will develop off the lee edge
of the rockies. The system will push northeast over the great lakes
and will bring continuous warm southerly flow. Warm advection snow
will start before changing over to potentially mixed precip and then
rain for much of the north country by Sunday afternoon. As with this
morning's global suite there is some subtle hint of a coastal trough
developing which would act to keep some of the low level air near
freezing east of the greens which would complicate the precip type
significantly.

A dry slot then provides a brief lull in the precipitation Sunday
evening before a cold front starts to push through transitioning
everything back to snow on the back side Monday. High pressure and
quiet weather return for Monday evening into Tuesday.

Based on the latest suite of guidance i'm not real bullish on any
flooding threats outside any river locations that are not currently
jammed with no channels. 24 hour rainfall totals appear to be on the
order of a half to three quarters of an inch and absent quite a bit
warmer temperatures I dont see significant snow melt running off.

Thus there shouldn't be enough water added to the basins to lift and
break ice. That said, we'll continue to monitor for any changes and
specifically for those locations that already have an ice jam in
place.

Aviation 05z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 12z Thursday... DryVFR conditions will persist thru 02z
Thursday with developing s-sw winds at 5-10kt. Thereafter, an
approaching warm front will bring developing steady snow from
sw- NE with vsby falling into the 1-2sm range between 02-03z
Thursday. Will see general ifr snowfall continue through 08-09z
before mixing with sleet and possible brief freezing rain toward
daybreak Thursday. Hir trrn obscd after 02-03z Thursday.

Anticipate low-moderate impacts to aviation ground ops early
Thursday morning owing to accumulation of snow and sleet (mainly
1-3" at the TAF sites).

Outlook...

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance ra, chance
fzra, chance sn.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shsn.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. Chance sn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra, likely
sn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Rsd
near term... Neiles rsd
short term... Rsd
long term... Deal
aviation... Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT56 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miFair-3°F-6°F84%1035.2 hPa

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Last 24hr--------------------NW4NW4NW4W9NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EST     2.02 meters High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:14 PM EST     2.00 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 PM EST     2.01 meters High Tide
Wed -- 10:42 PM EST     2.01 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Wed -- 06:08 AM EST     0.74 meters High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     0.73 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     0.75 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:00 PM EST     0.73 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.