Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rouses Point, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:19PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:23 PM EST (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:22PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rouses Point, NY
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location: 45.71, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 202019
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
319 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Light snows will taper off this evening with additional minor
accumulations possible. A strong arctic cold front will sweep
across the area on Wednesday with falling temperatures and
periods of snow showers and heavier snow squalls. Very cold and
blustery weather is expected for the thanksgiving holiday,
though temperatures moderate considerably by this coming weekend
into early next week with renewed chances for light rains and
snows.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 319 pm est Tuesday... The forecast remains largely on
track for tonight as an approaching polar longwave trough
interacts with low pressure departing through the gulf of maine
into the canadian maritimes. Models have remained quite
consistent showing light northwesterly flow interacting with
moisture and diffuence from the upper trough to produce
lingering light snows and or snow showers across the area
through early evening before activity wanes ends overnight.

Additional minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps 2 inches
will be possible through this time frame with the greatest
coverage occurring in east central and northeastern vt. By later
tonight a brief window of quiet weather is expected as weak
subsidence in lower levels bridges across the area. During this
period variable cloud cover will persist, though will have a
tendency to scatter out somewhat in the broader valleys. Low
temperatures to bottom out generally in the 15 to 25 degree
range by sunrise as winds trend light south to southwesterly
around 5 mph.

Active weather then returns during the daylight hours on Wednesday
as we continue to monitor a strong early season arctic front surging
southeastward from central southern on qe. Based off model-blended
timing progs, the front should clear through northern ny by late
morning to around noon, and through vt by early to mid afternoon.

More importantly, models remain on track showing a compact, though
robust shortwave trough and vorticity maxmimum riding along the
international border as the front passes. Strong front-end pva,
moisture convergence, low level frontogenesis and lower-end boundary
layer instability should accompany this feature. Additionally, an
impressive surface pressure rise fall couplet remains evident in
this morning's model output, and with such strong isallobaric
forcing a 2-4 hour window of higher pops for snow showers and
heavier snow squalls will be maintained with this package.

Accumulations should remain on the ligher side given the quick
moving nature of the front (dusting to 2 inches), though brief
whiteout conditions and gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with
heavier activity as it passes which has the potential to create
brief, though locally hazardous travel conditions.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 319 pm est Tuesday... By Wednesday night flow trends gusty
northwesterly behind the front as temperatures fall sharply,
bottoming out in the + - single digits and wind chills ranging
from 0 to 10 below in the valleys, and from 5 to 15 below in the
mountains. Northwesterly flow interacting with residual low
level moisture from the great lakes and lake champlain should be
enough to keep scattered to occasionally numerous light snow
showers going across elevated terrain at least through Thursday
morning with additional light accumulations possible. Winds
remain gusty into the 20 to 30 mph range through mid afternoon
on Thursday before slowly abating by evening as arctic high
pressure nudges closer. High temperatures to only top out from
10 to 18 above. Summit weather will be considerably worse during
this time frame with stronger winds and lower wind chills so
plan accordingly if venturing to the slopes on thanksgiving day.

Quiet cold conditions then continue for Thursday night, though with
with the surface high bridging overhead winds will trend light and
lower wind chills shouldn't be as problematic. Low temperatures by
Friday morning to generally range from 5 above to 10 below, though
locally a bit milder near lake champlain.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 405 am est Tuesday... Thursday night and Friday will
feature surface and upper level ridging, bringing back dry
weather to the area once again. Thursday night will be another
cold one with temperatures similar to Wednesday night's
readings. Difference will be that the winds drop off with the
building high pressure overhead. See climate section below for
daily climate records for november 22nd and 23rd. High pressure
shifts further east Friday, allowing for the start of some warm
air advection within return southwesterly flow. High temperatures
over the weekend will generally be in the 30s. The next chance
for precipitation comes Saturday night Sunday as troughing
redevelops over the area and an upper-level disturbance moves
through. Details at this point have yet to be ironed out,
however, most likely scenario given the arrival of warmer air
will be a mix of rain and snow. There's yet another rain system
for the late Monday into Tuesday timeframe which may bring even
more rain to the north country.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Through 18z Wednesday... Flight categories are ifr to lifr at
all TAF sites at this time. Light snow, low ceilings, and fog
are expected to continue for the next few hours. Kmss lies near
the back edge of the snow as it heads east with a slot of
lighter snow and higher ceilings positioned along kslk, kpbg,
and kbtv. Flight conditions will gradually improve after 00z as
snow and lower ceilings shift eastward with all sites forecast
to beVFR by 06z Wednesday with ceilings near 5000ft agl and
unrestricted visibilities. Winds currently out of the north at
less than 10kts will become light and variable overnight. By
13z, winds will become south to southwesterly ahead of an
approaching trough. MVFR to ifr ceilings are likely as an arctic
front moves southeast from ontario with winds increasing to 5
to 15kts and the potential for heavy snow showers approaching
kmss and kslk near 15z, though not explicitly mentioned in their
taf at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance ra, slight chance sn.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Likely ra,
chance sn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance ra.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for burlington for thanksgiving day
is 19 degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 24th) 1938.

Below are some daily climate records for november 22nd and
23rd.

November 22nd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 22 (2008) 3 (1969)
plattsburgh: 24 (2008) 6 (1972)
montpelier: 18 (2008) 2 (1964)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2008) 12 (2014)
saranac lake: 10 (1987) -2 (2000)
massena: 22 (1989) 0 (1972)
november 23rd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 20 (1914) 2 (1972)
plattsburgh: 23 (1989) 6 (2000)
montpelier: 21 (2000) -1 (1972)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2000) 7 (2000)
saranac lake: 18 (2000) -11 (1932)
massena: 18 (2008) 0 (2000)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Jmg
long term... Neiles
aviation... Haynes
climate... Rsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT56 mi29 minN 43.00 miLight Snow21°F18°F91%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3N5N3N3N3N3N3N6NW4N4N4N6Calm
1 day agoCalmE3E4SE3SE4S7S8
G14
S5S5S4S6S5S6S7S5S6S5S4S5S4W4NW3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3W4NW5W3W4W4NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmSW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     0.63 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EST     0.63 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM EST     0.65 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM EST     0.65 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     0.91 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EST     0.90 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EST     0.92 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.