Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rouses Point, NY
May 8, 2024 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:28 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 5:28 AM Moonset 9:26 PM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 082327 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 727 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are possible within thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come to an end this evening, and the remainder of the night will be damp and cloudy with some drizzle. The rest of the week into early next week will see at least chances for showers continue each day as we enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 606 PM EDT Wednesday...Much of New York/northern Vermont has now stabilized with temperatures dropping into the 50s. A sharp temperature gradient exists over Essex County NY, and Addison and Rutland Counties in Vermont that delineates warmer temperatures and more unstable air, though dewpoints remain only in the 50s. Window for any severe weather is quickly waning, increasing cloud cover and lost of diurnal instability. Still observing a line of showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder over NY, but given the stabilizing air mass threat of any additional severe is low.
Previous discussion...After some breaks in the clouds developed this afternoon, the area has destabilized over the past few hours and some convective showers with some embedded thunderstorms have popped up. SPC mesoanalysis analyzing up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE developing as the cap erodes. Best instability is analyzed over the southern Champlain Valley and into Essex County, NY, where the most clearing has occurred. Expect the instability to begin to wane over the next couple of hours as we move past peak diurnal heating and cloud cover increases. Best window for thunderstorms continues to be between now and 6 PM.
Have already had several reports of pea sized or slightly larger hail within thunderstorms, and seeing evidence on radar to support wind gusts in excess of 40 mph within and around thunderstorms. Expect these threats to persist with any additional storms that develop later this afternoon. Continuing to also note impressive low-level helicity values especially over our northern counties. As we progress into late afternoon/evening, expect additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms to pulse up and down as a shortwave continues to move through.
A cold front will move south through the area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low clouds and drizzle.
Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-level moisture will become trapped under a mid-level inversion, resulting in a dreary night with low stratus, mist, and drizzle. Additional shortwave energy moving through Thursday will keep low clouds around and have maintained a few light showers in the forecast. Some areas may see low clouds erode during the afternoon, leading to a few peaks of sunshine, but overall looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies.
Very little change in the overall pattern going into Thursday night, so will again expect lowering stratus clouds through the night especially in higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the 40s both tonight and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will be in the 50s to around 60.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...The overall trend noted by the previous discussion towards drier conditions for Friday continued with the 12Z NWP guidance with shortwave energy dropping south of the region from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic states. The northeast will remain under a broad upper level trough though so some showers can't be ruled out, especially south. Dry conditions generally rule Friday night in between shortwave troughs, but chances for showers return on Saturday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes will shift the flow to southwesterly across the region. The highest chances for showers will be across northern New York, with PoPs lower across Vermont. Temperatures will run near normal through the period with highs slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...More unsettled conditions look to return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned upper trough shifts offshore and potentially deepens and closes off. The GFS is the most aggressive solution while the ECMWF and GDPS are lesser so, offering lower chances for precipitation. Being it's Mothers Day we'll offer a little hope for drier weather and lean towards consensus and blended guidance with PoPs 40-50% across the region through Monday. Heading into mid-week conditions continue to remain unsettled as the upper flow trends northwesterly with several shortwave passages possible. Not looking at any impactful rain or thunderstorms, but the chance for showers exists each day.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Isolated to scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms are weakening and moving out of our region. With regards to ceiling heights, expect a general downward/deteriorating trend as we head into the overnight hours. Many sites will see MVFR ceilings become more predominant into the evening. Overnight, forecasting some IFR ceilings.
Could also have reduced visibilities due to patchy fog and drizzle that will persist towards the morning hours. Winds will trend to the NW overnight, diminishing to under 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 727 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are possible within thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come to an end this evening, and the remainder of the night will be damp and cloudy with some drizzle. The rest of the week into early next week will see at least chances for showers continue each day as we enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 606 PM EDT Wednesday...Much of New York/northern Vermont has now stabilized with temperatures dropping into the 50s. A sharp temperature gradient exists over Essex County NY, and Addison and Rutland Counties in Vermont that delineates warmer temperatures and more unstable air, though dewpoints remain only in the 50s. Window for any severe weather is quickly waning, increasing cloud cover and lost of diurnal instability. Still observing a line of showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder over NY, but given the stabilizing air mass threat of any additional severe is low.
Previous discussion...After some breaks in the clouds developed this afternoon, the area has destabilized over the past few hours and some convective showers with some embedded thunderstorms have popped up. SPC mesoanalysis analyzing up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE developing as the cap erodes. Best instability is analyzed over the southern Champlain Valley and into Essex County, NY, where the most clearing has occurred. Expect the instability to begin to wane over the next couple of hours as we move past peak diurnal heating and cloud cover increases. Best window for thunderstorms continues to be between now and 6 PM.
Have already had several reports of pea sized or slightly larger hail within thunderstorms, and seeing evidence on radar to support wind gusts in excess of 40 mph within and around thunderstorms. Expect these threats to persist with any additional storms that develop later this afternoon. Continuing to also note impressive low-level helicity values especially over our northern counties. As we progress into late afternoon/evening, expect additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms to pulse up and down as a shortwave continues to move through.
A cold front will move south through the area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low clouds and drizzle.
Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-level moisture will become trapped under a mid-level inversion, resulting in a dreary night with low stratus, mist, and drizzle. Additional shortwave energy moving through Thursday will keep low clouds around and have maintained a few light showers in the forecast. Some areas may see low clouds erode during the afternoon, leading to a few peaks of sunshine, but overall looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies.
Very little change in the overall pattern going into Thursday night, so will again expect lowering stratus clouds through the night especially in higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the 40s both tonight and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will be in the 50s to around 60.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...The overall trend noted by the previous discussion towards drier conditions for Friday continued with the 12Z NWP guidance with shortwave energy dropping south of the region from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic states. The northeast will remain under a broad upper level trough though so some showers can't be ruled out, especially south. Dry conditions generally rule Friday night in between shortwave troughs, but chances for showers return on Saturday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes will shift the flow to southwesterly across the region. The highest chances for showers will be across northern New York, with PoPs lower across Vermont. Temperatures will run near normal through the period with highs slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...More unsettled conditions look to return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned upper trough shifts offshore and potentially deepens and closes off. The GFS is the most aggressive solution while the ECMWF and GDPS are lesser so, offering lower chances for precipitation. Being it's Mothers Day we'll offer a little hope for drier weather and lean towards consensus and blended guidance with PoPs 40-50% across the region through Monday. Heading into mid-week conditions continue to remain unsettled as the upper flow trends northwesterly with several shortwave passages possible. Not looking at any impactful rain or thunderstorms, but the chance for showers exists each day.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...Isolated to scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms are weakening and moving out of our region. With regards to ceiling heights, expect a general downward/deteriorating trend as we head into the overnight hours. Many sites will see MVFR ceilings become more predominant into the evening. Overnight, forecasting some IFR ceilings.
Could also have reduced visibilities due to patchy fog and drizzle that will persist towards the morning hours. Winds will trend to the NW overnight, diminishing to under 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Sorel
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT 1.25 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT 1.25 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT 1.30 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT 1.25 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT 1.25 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT 1.30 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Islets Perces
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT 0.97 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 10:54 AM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT 0.99 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:24 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT 0.97 meters High Tide
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 10:54 AM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT 0.99 meters High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:24 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Burlington, VT,
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