Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 9:36PM Thursday June 29, 2017 11:47 AM EDT (15:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:21AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1057 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Patchy fog through the day. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201706292300;;005858 FZUS53 KAPX 291457 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1057 AM EDT Thu Jun 29 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-292300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 291528
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1128 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Update
Issued at 1128 am edt Thu jun 29 2017
stacked low pressure system has advanced into western upper
michigan this morning (nearly over mqt)... Attendant cold front
still out to our west roughly bisecting wisconsin and into
iowa nebraska. Mid level dry slot has progressed across northern
lower michigan this morning bringing an end to the precip... For
now. Smaller area of showers moving through the mqt area with the
vorticity center itself.

Rest of the the day... Short wave center will cross the upper
peninsula through the course of the day and bring some showers
back through eastern upper straits region and perhaps into the tip
of the mitt. Northern lower michigan will see some sun. But with
a lingering juicy boundary layer heating of the day... We might
bubble up some additional showers through the afternoon into early
evening.

But otherwise... Not anticipated high impact weather across the cwa
today through tonight.

Update issued at 644 am edt Thu jun 29 2017
tweaked the grids a little to allow for the chance of thunder this
morning through 13 or 14z, but for the most part, the thunder
threat and showers, for that matter, are about done. Looking at
the mrms radar images the dry slot aloft is beginning to have an
affect on the rain. Models agree that the the threat of rain
should be diminishing over the next several hours.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 241 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Clearing through the day...

high impact weather potential... Minimal
pattern synopsis forecast... A sfc low entering W lake superior,
will continue to slowly east today, putting it near grand marais
by 18z and pushing the warm front north and east of the forecast
area by that time. We get into the warm sector dry slot by then
which should put a lid on the showers activity through most of the
afternoon. The ECMWF has some QPF in the afternoon, but thinking
it will be probably drier than that, similar to the GFS idea.

Tonight, high pressure builds into the region as the sfc low
slowly treks east into ontario, north of lake huron by 06z fri.

However, the next lobe of low pressure moving out of the c
plains mid-mississippi valley will be spreading rain into SW lower
by 12z Friday giving us a small chance for something overnight.

Primary forecast concerns... While the gut feeling, and evaluation
of the GFS would say this afternoon is dry, the ECMWF still has
isolated to scattered showers over NE lower through the afternoon,
progressively pushing out by 00z fri. Will reluctantly leave the
chance pops that the blend gives, thinking that it may be more
like slight (so <24%). However either way, it does dry out so
that most of the night dries out.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 241 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

Scattered showers and a few storms...

high impact weather potential... Marginal risk of an isolated severe
storm or two down towards saginaw bay on Friday. Thunderstorms
possible again on Saturday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Amplified upper ridge developing over
the pacific northwest will lead to a deeper downstream trough
pattern over the upper great lakes for the end of the week. This
upper trough will be reinforced by a cutoff low dropping southeast
from central canada over the weekend. Several vort maxes are progged
to ripple around the trough Friday, and then the main trough axis
looks to swing through the region on Saturday. Combine this active
setup with ample moisture (pwats around 1"), and hence the unsettled
weather pattern will continue.

At the surface, a wave of low pressure will track across central
lower michigan on Friday along a somewhat diffuse frontal boundary.

A weak but better defined cold front will drop southeast across
northern michigan on Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns... Despite the active trough pattern
overhead Friday into Saturday, overall the period looks to feature
relatively weak synoptic lift aside from the front on Saturday.

Forecast sounding omega profiles aren't too impressive, but along
with sufficient moisture they look to be ample for isolated to
scattered showers at times through the period. Do expect there will
be some areas that manage to stay dry, however.

In terms of storm potential, forcing and dynamics for Friday do not
look as strong as they did with previous model runs over the last 24
hours. The surface low is much weaker and less organized now. Still
will be some marginal instability that develops during the day
(mainly south of m-72) with mlcapes ~700 j kg, but there will also
be some low level cinh to overcome. Instability will be a bit more
favorable and extend farther north on Saturday. Modest 0-6km shear
may support a better organized storm or two across our southeast on
either day with gusty winds as the main hazard, perhaps some small
hail. Spc's SWODY2 outlook keeps the greater threat for severe
weather downstate but places our southeastern counties near saginaw
bay in a marginal risk.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 241 am edt Thu jun 29 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal. A thunderstorm or two
possible on Sunday.

Closed low vort MAX will drop out of southwest ontario Saturday
night into Sunday, grazing the upper great lakes. Another cold front
will drop south across the region Sunday afternoon, bringing
additional chances for a few showers and possibly a storm or two
through evening. Significantly drier air and high pressure will
build in behind this front for the first half of next week with a
slight warmup on tap and likely a lot of sunshine. That's great news
for those in northern michigan who are growing weary of this wet
pattern, and the bonus is it will coincide with independence day
festivities and travel. The GFS gets very optimistic with moisture
return on Wednesday and is quick to bring in a chance of rain. But
the ECMWF and canadian still retain a strong surface high anchored
over the upper great lakes with dry conditions. Temperatures look to
warm a degree or two each day Sunday through Wednesday, climbing a
little above seasonal normals with some areas reaching the low 80s
by Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 644 am edt Thu jun 29 2017
thunder and rain showers will continue to diminish, once this line
is through NE lower. Otherwise, the main concerns will be the cigs
as they begin to increase. IR images are showing some clearing to
the west in wisconsin. Not sure how much of that we will realize,
with the 500 mb, and sfc lows over the region, think that it will
remain cloudy, but the lower clouds definitely look like they
should shrink.

Marine
Issued at 241 am edt Thu jun 29 2017
with the low moving across S lake superior today, the gradient
relaxes substantially will be carrying small craft advisory
through noon, until the waves subside this morning. For tonight
through Friday night, the next sfc low tracks over the region
with little in the way of any pressure gradient. So am expecting
winds and waves to remain below small craft criteria through the
rest of the period.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz025-
031.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz341-
345-346.

Ls... None.

Update... Tba
near term... Jsl
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Jsl
marine... Jsl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi47 min SW 6 G 9.9 69°F 1003.8 hPa (-0.3)60°F
45175 3 mi27 min SW 3.9 G 7.8 66°F 60°F1 ft1005 hPa
WSLM4 20 mi47 min S 12 63°F 60°F1004.3 hPa (-0.3)62°F
45022 31 mi27 min SSW 7.8 G 12 68°F 62°F2 ft1005.6 hPa67°F
SRLM4 33 mi47 min ESE 11 59°F 60°F57°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi67 min WSW 5.1 G 8 61°F 1003.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi47 min SE 5.1 G 8 62°F 1005.3 hPa (-0.4)60°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi47 min SE 5.1 G 7 1005.6 hPa (-0.3)
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi47 min SE 13 G 16 60°F 1004.6 hPa (-0.4)60°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi47 min ESE 8 G 12 59°F 1004.6 hPa (-0.4)59°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi73 minSE 310.00 miOvercast63°F63°F100%1004.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi53 minSW 810.00 miOvercast70°F63°F79%1004.8 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi53 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S6S5S6S8
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CalmS4SE3SE5SE6SE5SE6E4E4SE4S5SE5SE5SE4SE6SE4SE5SE3E3
1 day agoSW11
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2 days agoNE7CalmW3W4NW4N6N7NW7NW5NW7N8NW6NW6NW8W8W6W7W10W7W6W6W9W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.