Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 5:26PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:33 PM EST (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1107 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Today..Light winds. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201901220015;;703796 FZUS53 KAPX 211607 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1107 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-220015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211452
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
952 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Update
Issued at 947 am est Mon jan 21 2019
arctic airmass across the region brought some unbelievably cold
temperatures early this morning, with many of the typical ice box
locations dropping below -20f. Only one record reported, that
being gaylord which dropped to -23f, breaking their previous
record by one degree. Temperatures have started to recover some,
with trend expected to continue through the day under plenty of
sunshine and the development of some light southerly winds by
later this afternoon. Still dangerously cold out there for a few
more hours yet, and will simply let inherited wind chill advisory
run its course through noon.

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 140 am est Mon jan 21 2019
high impact weather potential: very cold.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
there is a fairly wavy upper air pattern out there early this
morning. Upper troughing was in the rockies and a stronger closed
low over new england coast, while shallow ridging was over the
mississippi valley. At the sfc, strong high pressure in the western
great lakes continued to advance toward NRN michigan, with northerly
low level winds gradually weakening with time. In fact, there were
indications in sfc obs that land breezes were developing. Radar
cannot see the shallow snow showers over NE lower, nor can ours or
canadian radar see activity coming off whitefish bay into portions
of chippewa county. However, the bands impacting the gtv bay region
were propagating westward with time. This is suggested by very short
term RUC forecast 1000-850mb winds, but may also be getting that
added boost from the land breezes. The the low level air mass
remained very cold, with -18c to -22c 950-925mb air, not only
resulting in the lake effect snow clouds, but also leading to
dangerously cold sfc temperatures. Readings were in the teens to 20s
below zero in many areas.

The sfc high pressure advances into NRN michigan today, with winds
going light and variable then gradually turning out of the south
tonight as the high departs. The lake effect snow and clouds will
gradually continue to move themselves offshore through the day,
before those southerly winds push any activity north into portions
of eastern upper late today into this evening. The upper level
ridging crosses NRN michigan very late tonight, with weak shortwave
energy pressing to the region by daybreak. Forcing with dpva looks
quite weak, but low to mid level WAA is pretty decent, while gulf of
mexico moisture gets increasingly ingested into low pressure
developing in the central plains. Most all data suggesting that a
wing of light snow will develop and move into toward daybreak, but
have some concerns that very dry low to mid level air will at least
likely delay it's arrival. Will go with light snow and minor snow
amounts arriving 09z-12z across far NRN lake michigan and western
areas of chippewa and mackinac counties of eastern upper. Amounts
and chances for snow decrease toward NE lower.

Wind chill readings still expected to bottom out in the negative 20s
for many areas of NRN michigan, certainly plenty of of negative
teens. The winter weather advisory will remain locked in place
through this morning, until temperatures can rebound a little. It's
still going to be very cold today, despite a modifying air mass from
the southerly winds. Highs in the 8f-14f range will be common. Lows
tonight are kind of tough due to continued warming. Single digits
above zero will be common.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 140 am est Mon jan 21 2019
high impact weather potential: accumulating snow expected late
Tuesday afternoon - Wednesday morning, likely leading to reduced
visibilities and hazardous travel conditions.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by early Tuesday morning, mid-level
ridging is expected to be squarely atop michigan with shortwave
troughing and strengthening surface low pressure evident across the
central plains. This system will continue to trek northeastward
across central michigan by Tuesday night with accumulating snow
leading to reduced visibilities and hazardous travel conditions. Cold
air (although certainly not as cold as the past couple of days)
pools into the region behind the aforementioned system throughout
the day on Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: snow chances and amounts
Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

Little change in thinking from 24 hours ago, as there remain some
guidance inconsistencies in the system's track... Varying from
tracking right across northern lower mi to across central michigan
(roughly grr to saginaw bay). The ultimate track will certainly
affect the placement of heaviest snow; however, latest trends
continue to suggest isentropically driven light snow underway at the
start of the period Tuesday morning... Most numerous across the tip
of the mitt into eastern upper while much of the remainder of the
forecast area remains snow-free. Matter of fact, its conceivable
that a good chunk of the forecast area may remain dry through a
large portion of the day Tuesday as WAA snows may miss many areas
south of the bridge entirely. However, more widespread snow is
expected to arrive from west to east early Tuesday evening through
Tuesday night as deeper moisture and forcing hold off until late in
the day overnight as aforementioned surface low approaches and
eventually crosses the region. By Tuesday evening 00z Wednesday,
expecting that the majority of accumulation will be confined to the
straits and eastern upper, generally ranging from 1-3 inches with an
inch or less across the remainder of northern lower.

As was alluded to, snow coverage and intensity is expected to pick
up across much of the forecast area Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night before synoptic support strips away to the east by Wednesday
morning, leaving a transition to continuing lake effect snow showers
downwind of lake michigan and lake superior for Wednesday afternoon.

Current trends suggest another 1-3 inches of snow falling across
eastern upper and the tip of the mitt and another 2-5 inches across
the remainder of northern lower, although still wouldn't be
surprised to see a couple of locally higher amounts given the
potential for mesoscale banding to set up (most likely to occur
somewhere over northern lower late Tuesday evening overnight). This
brings 24-hour storm total accumulations to 3-6 inches area-wide and
what will likely be hazardous travel in many locations due to
reduced visibilities and snow-covered slippery roads. Worth
monitoring over the next several days as the system nears and
details become more refined.

Occasional northwest flow lake effect snow showers are expected to
continue across the typical snow belts of eastern upper and
northwest lower for the remainder of the day Wednesday, although
with increasing deep layer dry air filtering into the region,
additional accumulation is expected to be rather light.

High temperatures Tuesday in the low-mid 20s area-wide, rising a few
more degrees for Wednesday... Ranging from the mid-20s north to the
upper 20s-low 30s elsewhere.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 140 am est Mon jan 21 2019
high impact weather potential: active weather continues with several
chances for accumulating snow through the weekend, along with
another round of potentially very cold temperatures.

A quick-moving clipper system is progged to arrive across northern
michigan late Thursday into Thursday night aiding to renew area-wide
snow chances, along with drawing in another shot of very cold air
(h8 temps progged to fall to the mid-20s below zero once again).

Given plenty of over-lake instability, lake effect snow is
anticipated to continue Friday into Friday night before becoming
enhanced by another clipper set to race across the northern plains
into the northern great lakes on Saturday. All in all, a cold and
wintry scene expected to a good portion of the extended forecast
period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 613 am est Mon jan 21 2019
strong high pressure settles into the region today, before starting
to depart east tonight. Northerly winds will continue to result in
times of MVFR stratus and maybe some lingering light lake effect
snow showers flurries, but there is some degree of uncertainty for
which airports will be affected. Best chance for these conditions
will be at apn, then pln as winds start backing west then south
through the day. Low level winds increase and push any MVFR out of
nrn lower michigan, while also resulting in possible llws.

Marine
Issued at 140 am est Mon jan 21 2019
strong high pressure settles into the region today, before starting
to depart east tonight. The pressure gradient loosens up enough by
daybreak for advisory level wind speeds to end for lake michigan,
but will need to extend the advisory for lake huron a few more
hours. After some lighter winds for today, widespread southerly
advisory and possible gales speeds return tonight, as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing high and developing low
pressure in the central plains. The gradient continues to loosen up
later Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low pressure lifts up into
nrn michigan. Widespread snows are anticipated.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Wind chill advisory until noon est today for miz008-015>036-041-
042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Tuesday for lhz346-347.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm est
Tuesday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Update... mb
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi39 min W 6 G 8.9 11°F 33°F1034.1 hPa-10°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi53 min Calm G 2.9 13°F 1032.5 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi39 min NNW 5.1 G 8 1033.4 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi39 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 2°F 1033 hPa-3°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi39 min NNE 6 G 8 2°F 35°F1032.7 hPa-1°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi39 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 8°F 1032.9 hPa-10°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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N10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi38 minSW 310.00 miFair8°F2°F78%1033.5 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair6°F-4°F63%1036.2 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi38 minWSW 710.00 miFair11°F1°F66%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
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N8N6N8N7N4NW4NW3NW6W8NW4W4W5CalmCalmSW3W3
1 day agoE6NE6N4N6NE8NE9NE8NE8NE10NE10NE7NE7NE7N7N8N9NE12NE12N9NE9NE9NE11
G14
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2 days agoNW15
G25
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N6
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N5NE8NE7NE9NE8NE7NE10NE11NE11NE10
G15
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G18
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NE10NE10NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.