Monday, April24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:39PM Monday April 24, 2017 9:05 AM EDT (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 339 Am Edt Mon Apr 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..East wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the morning.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201704241545;;179916 FZUS53 KAPX 240739 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 339 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ345-241545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241048
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
648 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 301 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

Mild, dry weather continues...

high impact weather potential: watching another possible round of
low relative humidity for parts of northern lower michigan this
afternoon.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: fast zonal upper level flow continues
across the area on south side of deep mid level closed low
pinwheeling into northwest quebec. Passing cold front of yesterday
now stalling out to our south, the western extent of which is
already showing signs of returning north across the northern plains
under intensifying WAA regime ahead of intermountain west wave. Band
of light rain/snow showers well north of this front into the
northwest lakes. Otherwise, just another quiet night across the
north woods, with plenty of mid and upper level clouds across the
northern reaches of the area.

Some changes expected to start to take place today and tonight as
surface high to our north slides off to the southeast, all-the-while
low pressure pushes across the plains into the northern mississippi
valley by later tonight. Southeast flow will gradually gain steam
across our area between these systems. Stationary front over the
lower lakes makes little progress north today, while making a much
more definitive northward push as a warm front just to our west.

That changes tonight as the front races north across our area in
response to that low pushing into northern minnesota.

Primary forecast concerns: temperature and cloud trends through
tonight. How low relative humidity plummets again this afternoon
across parts of northern lower.

Details: not a whole lot going on this morning, with well elevated
waa regime bringing some thicker high and mid level overcast across
the northern half of the area. Moisture at one point looked just
deep enough to produce a flurry/sprinkle near whitefish point,
although simple upstream radar extrapolation suggests any precip
will now push across lake superior. Still appears clouds will mix
out later this morning and afternoon, resulting in at least partly
cloudy skies to the north. Much more Sun expected across the south
half of the area through the day. As mentioned, southeast flow
steadily increases, resulting in a rather robust temperature
gradient. Lake huron air conditioning will be on full throttle
across eastern upper and northeast lower michigan, keeping highs in
those areas in the 40s and 50s. Much warmer for northwest lower
michigan, with excellent downslope enhancement pushing temperatures
well into the 60s south of m-68 and along/west of interstate 75.

This once again raises some fire weather concerns with dearth of low
level moisture and increased mixing combining to tank relative
humidity values to near critical levels in those same areas this
afternoon. Winds will also be a touch stronger than the last few
days. Will continue to highlight these concerns in our latest fire
weather forecast products.

Winds slowly turn more southerly overnight as the front bows north
through the region. Airmass, however, remains a dry one, with all
deep layer theta-e advection, mid level wave support, and forcing
from low level jet removed to our northwest. Clouds will be on the
increase as higher level saturation develops, but think area does
remain dry through the overnight. Maintenance of winds will
definitely keep it a much milder night, with lows largely in the
40s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday night)
issued at 301 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

Increasing shower chances...

energy evident on water vapor imagery just off the pacific northwest
coast will move across the rockies then into the plains over the
next couple of days. This system will eventually swing through the
great lakes during the midweek period. This is expected to bring
showery weather to the region as early as late Tuesday across
northwest zones and across much of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday (all the way into Thursday). There is even a small chance
for a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. It will be warm through
this period with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower
and perhaps middle 70s southeast. Lows in the middle 40s to middle
50s.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 301 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

More showers Thursday and again this weekend...

the western system will take its time clearing the area Thursday
with a cold front finally moving across the region. This will result
in additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Cooler
behind the front with weak high pressure building in Friday. The dry
weather looks short lived as another system emerges out of the
plains and likely brings more showery weather to the region over the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees
below late april averages.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1153 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017
vfr.

Low pressure will lift NE into the northern plains on Monday. This
will gradually veer winds to the E and se. Some stratocu and
mid/high clouds will be seen in advance of this system tonight and
Monday, but conditions should remainVFR. Llws may emerge toward
the extreme end of this TAF period as SE winds just off the
surface increase, but will hold off including in the tafs for now.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 646 am edt Mon apr 24 2017
scattered mid and high clouds across the TAF locations today and
tonight, with no restrictions expected. Southeast winds do become
a touch gusty today. Development of low level jet tonight brings
wind shear to the sites.

Marine
Issued at 301 am edt Mon apr 24 2017
southeast flow expected to strengthen today and tonight,
the result of an tightening pressure gradient between retreating
high pressure and organizing low pressure advancing through the
northern plains. Despite increasing over-water stability, winds look
strong enough to produce small craft advisory conditions,
particularly through and either side of the straits. Southeast flow
also produces excellent enhancement up through the st. Marys river
and whitefish bay. Gusty southeast winds continue through Tuesday
morning, decreasing some in speed as they veer a touch more
southerly Tuesday afternoon and night.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz345>348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Msb
short term... Ajs
long term... Ajs
aviation... Msb
marine... Msb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi48 min ESE 22 G 25 37°F 1019.6 hPa31°F
45175 3 mi26 min ESE 16 G 19 37°F 38°F2 ft1021 hPa32°F
WSLM4 20 mi66 min E 25 36°F 36°F1019.5 hPa (-0.4)31°F
SRLM4 33 mi36 min E 19 35°F 35°F28°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi52 min E 9.9 G 13 37°F 1019.3 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi48 min E 12 G 17 1021.9 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi48 min ESE 8 G 15 36°F 1021.7 hPa23°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi48 min E 8 G 13 35°F 1020.7 hPa27°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi48 min ESE 18 G 21 35°F 1020.8 hPa25°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island - Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi69 minE 13 G 2410.00 miFair36°F30°F81%1020.3 hPa
Pellston, Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County Airport, MI14 mi72 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F30°F79%1020.8 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi72 minESE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F31°F87%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
G17
N9N6NW7NW9N6N7N4N8N9N10
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NE7NE4NE6E5E9
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1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW6SW4W7SW6SW8
G16
SW7SW9
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SW6SW6SW5SW7S6S8S9W8SW12
G24
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W9W10NW8
2 days agoNW10
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NW7NW6NW5NW6NW6NW6NW4NW5NW3W3W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.