Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:17PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 526 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201805241730;;447870 FZUS53 KAPX 240926 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 526 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-241730-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241003
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
603 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 319 am edt Thu may 24 2018
impactful weather: areas of fog into daybreak in and around the nrn
portions of lakes michigan and huron. Maybe a rumble of thunder in
eastern upper late tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
sfc high pressure and a core of dry air was shifting into the
eastern great lakes early this morning, while mid level ridging and
warming temperatures were pressing into the western great lakes.

Gradually increasing sfc dew points over cold lake michigan has
continued to result in marine stratus and fog, and weak SW flow was
feeding this through the straits and over into far NRN lake huron
now. Otherwise, only some thin high level cirrus was crossing the
region. All of the action remained out west of us, within ahead of a
shortwave trough working into the NRN and cntrl plains. Low pressure
associated with this wave was in western nd sd, and a channel of
deeper moisture was feeding from the gulf, northward through a warm
front extending from the low, down through iowa and the low mid
mississippi valley. Pockets of showers and thunderstorms were dotted
across the central conus, as well as in the upper mississippi
valley, within stronger low level winds and steeper lapse rates
aloft.

The mid level ridging does get suppressed to some degree as the
aforementioned shortwave works itself eastward into the western
great lakes tonight. The warmer air mass will be noticed through the
day as temperatures climb even higher than yesterday's warm
readings. Highs today are expected to top out in the 80s for most of
nrn michigan, with much cooler readings in coastal areas, mainly in
lake michigan, but also through the straits region. The marine fog
and stratus is expected to continue into daybreak, expanding into
far NRN lake huron and lingering into a good chunk of the day. The
warmer air arriving from the west however, ought to eat away at any
stratus fog through morning. This will result in most all areas
seeing a warm and mostly sunny day.

The sfc low pressure will lift into SRN canada tonight, with the
warm front pressing into the far western great lakes. Moisture
increases to over 1.00" pwat with slowly steepening lapse rates
aloft, but there will be an expected lack of a decent LLJ and even
weaker upper level forcing. Regardless, we are slowly trying to get
primed for the development of showers and quite possibly a rumble of
thunder. This will be a slight chance at best for late tonight, and
more so across eastern upper michigan, in the path of weak ejected
vorticity from the shortwave. A milder night with lows in the middle
50s to around 60f for most areas, cooler near the great lakes.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Unsettled weather Friday and the weekend...

high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms possible both
Friday and Saturday.

Pattern forecast: upper level ridging across the eastern half of the
conus early this morning will continue right through the beginning
of the forecast period on Friday before gradually becoming dampened
by a shortwave expected to ride along the western periphery of the
ridge... Crossing northern michigan Friday night into Saturday.

Strong surface high pressure will also gradually shift eastward with
occasionally unsettled weather becoming the result through the
upcoming holiday weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops & thunder chances Friday
through Saturday.

Increasingly strong deep southwesterly flow during the day Friday
will continue to aid in both moisture and warm air advection across
the region locally. Friday's high temperatures progged to range from
the mid-upper 70s across the far north to the low-upper 80s south of
the bridge. Would not be surprised to see a few 90+ degree readings
across downsloping areas of northeast lower. Friday's scattered
precip potential will likely remain focused across eastern upper and
eventually across far northwest lower by the late afternoon
evening... All associated with pockets of deeper moisture (pws
greater than 1.5") and better mid level forcing ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave. Developing instability (upwards of several
hundred j kg of mlcape) is expected by the afternoon hours, which
continues to support scattered thunderstorms, although as the prior
shift mentioned... Rather anemic wind fields aloft and bulk shear
values less than 20 kts are less than supportive for any organized
severe weather.

Occasionally unsettled weather continues Friday night into Saturday
with pops littering that portion of the forecast. It certainly won't
be a complete washout for the many holiday weekend activities going
on across northern michigan, but partly to mostly cloudy skies and
occasional showers thunderstorms certainly seem likely. Guidance
remains fairly bullish with respect to increasing instability by
Saturday afternoon as MLCAPE values are progged to range from 750-
1,250 j kg across much of the forecast area (skeptical of this due
to more cloud cover). With slightly stronger bulk shear anticipated,
especially west of i-75, it's not out of the realm of possibilities
that a stronger storm or two is able to develop, but given this is
still 72+ hours away, it warrants keeping an eye on as we near the
holiday weekend. Saturday's high temperatures remain warm... Varying
from the 70s across eastern upper to the low-mid 80s for many inland
spots across northern lower.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu may 24 2018
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms continues
Saturday night through Sunday.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue at times right on through
the end of the weekend before canadian high pressure gradually sags
into the region from the north Monday through the middle of next
week... Likely bringing a return to dry (but still warm) weather.

High temperatures through the period ranging from the mid 70s to low
80s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 556 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Vfr...

high pressure and dry air will slowly move east of the region
today into tonight. The marine fog stratus has largely eroded and
vfr will be the rule. Sfc winds will be more S SW and generally
under 10kts. Only a few higher based cumulus expected this
afternoon, along with some thin high cirrus. A bit more upper
level moisture expected tonight for pln apn. No rain chances
foreseen for the airports, but maybe a roaming shower late
tonight around pln.

Llws expected to develop late tonight as the pressure gradient
tightens up ahead of approaching low pressure and warm front into
the far western great lakes.

Marine
Issued at 319 am edt Thu may 24 2018
high pressure and the recent weak pressure gradient will work east
of the nearshore waters today and into tonight, ahead of approaching
low pressure and warm front that may bring some low end advisory
level gusts in lake michigan for Friday afternoon. This is a low
chance of occurring at this point, as it also appears to be just a
quick window of opportunity, plus conditions will be quite stable
over the lakes. Chances for showers and maybe even a rumble of
thunder start late tonight, and increase Friday with various other
chances over the weekend as the low pressure and warm front linger
in the area.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 6 51°F 1020.8 hPa43°F
45175 3 mi24 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 47°F1 ft1022 hPa
WSLM4 20 mi64 min SSW 8 53°F 49°F1021.8 hPa (+0.5)45°F
45022 31 mi34 min E 5.8 G 5.8 52°F 42°F1023.1 hPa46°F
SRLM4 33 mi64 min SW 5.1 52°F 42°F50°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 12 51°F 1021 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 62°F 1021.2 hPa50°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi46 min ESE 5.1 G 6 1020.3 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi46 min WSW 6 G 9.9 64°F 1020.4 hPa50°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi46 min ESE 5.1 G 7 53°F 1020.5 hPa44°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi69 minW 510.00 miFair61°F48°F65%1021.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi70 minSE 310.00 miFair66°F50°F56%1021.8 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi69 minSSW 310.00 miFair65°F51°F61%1021 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W5SW6W5SW5SW10SW8SW12
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1 day agoN4CalmNE3CalmSE3W5SW7SW9W5W7W8W9W5W7W8W6W6W6W9W9W7W7W6Calm
2 days agoN5CalmCalmS3E4E5E9E10
G14
E6E6E6CalmW3S7SW4W5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.