Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:13AMSunset 5:20PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:19 AM EST (07:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 5:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1008 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of snow showers after midnight, then slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the season. This product will resume seven days prior to the opening of the soo locks, scheduled for march 25 2018, or sooner if warmer temperatures would cause ice to dissipate.
LHZ345 Expires:201801161000;;512209 FZUS53 KAPX 160309 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ345-161000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 160717
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
217 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
stacked low pressure system was overhead early this morning, with
actual axis of sfc low pressure to our south. However, cyclonic flow
and weak low level convergence was all over NRN michigan, along with
deformation and deeper moisture draped over primarily NRN lower
michigan. Also, E NE flow continues off lake huron. All of the above
are contributing to periodic, and generally light snow. Much less
action in eastern upper michigan with no lake effect in the ene
flow, and further displaced from the deformation deeper moisture.

Temperatures were in the single digits to teens.

Pattern will be very slow to change, but the forcing deeper moisture
will pivot around NE lower through the morning, while gradually
making it's way out of the region late this afternoon and evening.

Forcing from cyclonic flow low level convergence will also wane
through the day. This process will gradually put an end to synoptic
snows. In the meantime, low level flow will back around out of the
north today, and then westerly tonight. Light lake effect will
continue across NE lower into the morning, and then focus more so on
the gtv bay region tonight. No significant accumulations expected,
with most areas at an inch or less. Only localized spots in lake
effect can see a couple inches or so.

Highs in the teens to low 20s with lows tonight a bit trickier.

Single digits most areas, but some clearing tonight, mainly across
ne lower, could bring some negative single digits.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Cold wind chills despite gradually moderating temperatures...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: by Wednesday morning, deep upper level trough axis
is expected to be centered across the eastern great lakes with
heights gradually rising across northern michigan. Primary features
to note initially focus on an area of low pressure across central
northern ontario with a warm front crossing the area locally during
the day Wednesday. Limited synoptic support moisture will lend
itself to little in the way of sensible weather aside from
increasingly gusty winds as the gradient tightens between the
aforementioned low pressure and strong high pressure centered across
the lower mississippi valley. Another, well-defined, mid-level wave
is set to approach the region late in the day Thursday Thursday
night, but again with anemic moisture yielding little threat for
appreciable precipitation.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: wind chills Wednesday despite
gradually moderating temperatures.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated through the
forecast period. Aforementioned warm front will cross northern
michigan during the day Wednesday aiding to boost daytime high
temperatures into the 20s area-wide. However, gusty winds of 20-30
mph (highest near the lake shores) will keep wind chills in the
single digits below zero early in the day before warming into the
mid-upper single digits above zero to low teens Wednesday afternoon.

No real threat for precip with the front... Perhaps just a few
flurries light snow showers across eastern upper early in the day.

High temps Thursday climb another 5-10 degrees putting many
locations on pace to near the freezing mark (coolest temps will be
across eastern upper and interior locations of northern lower). Well
defined shortwave approaches late in the day Thursday and while
limited moisture suggests little in the way of appreciable precip,
latest trends suggest at least a low threat for scattered snow
showers, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 215 am est Tue jan 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal... For now.

Primary focus through the extended period revolves around the late
weekend - early next week timeframe as guidance has been fairly
consistent with the idea of a wave ejecting out of the four-corners
region with cyclogenesis lee of the rockies by Sunday morning. This
wave and strengthening area of low pressure is expected to trek
northeastward toward the western great lakes late in the day Sunday
into Monday. Confidence remains low in the overall track and
strength of this system... Ultimately affecting whether northern
michigan experiences unseasonably mild temperatures and rain or
greater impacts from a wet accumulating snowfall. Definitely a
system worth monitoring over the next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1145 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
bands of light to moderate lake huron enhanced snow will continue
to impact NE lower michigan (apn) into the overnight hours... Periodically
dropping conditions to ifr. Low pressure will slowly track thru
southern lower michigan... Eventually transitioning to northerly
flow light lake effect snow showers on Tuesday. NE winds AOB 10
kts will shift to the north on Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 340 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
gusty se-e winds will back and diminish tonight. Small craft
advisory conditions will persist on lake michigan for much of the
night before subsiding on Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
lmz323-342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi50 min NE 15 G 18 16°F 1027.8 hPa5°F
SRLM4 33 mi50 min NE 17 15°F 10°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi40 min N 5.1 G 6 11°F 1028.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi50 min N 1.9 G 4.1 12°F 1028.8 hPa7°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi50 min N 2.9 G 4.1 1028 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi50 min NE 9.9 G 13 11°F 1027.6 hPa8°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 12°F 1029 hPa3°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Last
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SE11
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SE9
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W10
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NE11
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N6
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G10
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G17
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W11
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W6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi25 minENE 9 G 153.00 miLight Snow13°F9°F83%1028.4 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi26 minN 74.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist8°F6°F92%1029.9 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi25 minNE 710.00 miLight Snow16°F12°F86%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
G18
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SE6SE10
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E5E13NE12
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NE15NE10
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1 day agoW10
G18
W9
G16
W9
G14
W12
G16
W9W5CalmS3SE4S4S9
G16
S11
G18
S9
G17
SW7
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S7S5S7
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2 days agoNE8N10NE11
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N6N6N7N6NE4CalmW3W7W7W8W5SW7W10W13
G19
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G22
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G18
W9
G16
W10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.