Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 9:35PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 6:49AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1037 Am Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Today..Light winds. Isolated showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201906192245;;734572 FZUS53 KAPX 191437 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1037 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-192245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191745
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
145 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1039 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
a stationary boundary is just off to our south with a band of
mainly light rain showers moving up along the front. A few of
these showers are impacted far southern eastern zones of the
forecast area. Expect this to continue over the next few hours. In
addition, weak instability lake breeze convergence driven showers
could develop father north across the parts of the remainder of
the area this afternoon. Am not too excited about this possibility
really since drier air will be filtering in from the north. We
shall see if anything happens. Lots of clouds will hold down
temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s (have trimmed down
highs just slightly).

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
impactful weather: more showers today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level low pressure remained centered in quebec early this
morning, with troughing extending back westward through central
canada. Westerly flow aloft was seen in NRN michigan, on the SRN end
of this troughing, with one weak shortwave pressing into the western
great lakes, and an associated weak low pressure and a cold front
overhead. Moisture advection and dpva has been less than expected,
with all other forcing mechanisms being weak. This has resulted in
just a sparse amount of showers in and around NRN michigan, but
shallow, cooler and moist low level air, has led to some stratus
development across eastern upper and much of NW lower michigan.

Further RUC and satellite analysis reveals additional shortwave
energy being ejected into the dakotas down through the SRN plains,
with more associated showers and thunderstorms.

The weak low pressure and cold front will cross the region through
daybreak, with a continued chance for isolated showers popping off,
mainly over NRN lower michigan. The better chance for showers (and
honestly, just a long shot for a thunderstorm due to poor lapse
rates and overall weak instabilty), will be later today, for again,
nrn lower michigan. The NRN and SRN stream shortwave energy will
continue to get ejected into the region, while weak low level flow
results in minor advection changes to the moisture thermal profiles
of the atmosphere, as well as induces expected afternoon lake
breezes. This is going to result in additional scattered showers,
focused more so, in the inland lake breeze convergence zones. Much
of this convection will fade with nightfall, but the continued
shortwave energy will keep the chance for showers going into the
evening.

Highs today will generally be in the lower 70s with lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
synopsis: weak troughing exists over the center of the conus, with
mild ridging along either coast. Currently a 100kt jet exists over
the great lakes and extends off the new england coast. A subtle
shortwave currently over the northern rockies will dig into the weak
central troughing before making a turn toward the great lakes on
Thursday. The induced surface low will ride up through the ohio
valley through the day. Then ridging encroaches over us on Friday
into the weekend. Late week will generally have temperatures near
normal, before we warm up to slightly above normal through the
weekend into early next week.

High impact weather potential: minimal, with isolated showers and
rumbles of thunder
details challenges: models have tried to come into better agreement
regarding Thursday's low pressure placement and strength. The gfs
was a slow outlier for multiple days, but in latest run has switched
to be even faster than the rest of guidance. Thus will opt for the
consistency of the remaining guidance, which places the low south
and east of lake erie by 12z Thursday. Deep layer moisture will be
pushing off to the east before mid-day, so will keep pops very low,
even near saginaw bay. Drier air works its way in from the west,
along with north-south orientated surface ridging. This will lead to
diminishing clouds through the day. Winds decrease overnight into
Friday morning as the pressure gradient becomes lax over us. Upper
level ridging builds in on Friday, and this pattern will dominate
our weather through much of the weekend. A ripple of energy over-
topping the shortwave ridging will bring rain chances back in Friday
afternoon. This precipitation could take shape as an MCS with decent
daytime heating, at least 40kts bulk shear, and supportive jet
streak dynamics over the area.

Thursday highs will be near to slightly below normal. Areas closer
to lake huron will be the coolest with our northeasterly flow. Then
Friday bumps up a couple degrees with more Sun across the area. The
only thing that could set Friday's highs back would be cloud
cover and any rain-cooled air from a possible mcs.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 429 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal... For now
the weekend sees surface ridging slowly sliding east, even as upper
level ridging holds over the area. We should see plenty of dry time,
but the threat of afternoon showers and storms (that may linger into
the nighttime hours) bares keeping the indecisive low pops as they
stand. Better thunder chances move back in Sunday with a surface low
sweeping up through the upper mississippi valley into southern
canada. This system drags a warm front across the area Sunday, and
if we can get any clearing in the brief warm sector we may realize
the large CAPE values the GFS is advertising. As of now, we'll have
good lapse rates, shear, and possibly favorable jet dynamics. If we
can keep the instability and low-level moisture there's a chance the
area will be at risk of some severe storms. Of course a lot can will
change between now and then, but it still bears watching. The same
system may drag a cold front through on Monday, keeping precip
chances going. Temperatures head into the weekend mainly in the mid
70s before warming a few more degrees (to near and maybe slightly
above normal readings) on Sunday, then drop back a tad early next
week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 140 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
extremely tough cig forecast. There is currently light flow
across the region with low clouds trapped across parts of northern
michigan. Current trends have been to dissipate low cloud
coverage and this is trend is expected to continue through early
evening. However, more low clouds are expected to form overnight,
especially at mbl and tvc. Vsbys are largely expected to remain
vfr. Otherwise, perhaps a light shower or two with light mainly
northeast winds.

Marine
Issued at 513 am edt Wed jun 19 2019
a weak area of low pressure and a cold front is crossing the
region early this morning, and will result in a continued chance
for seeing showers into this evening. This will also result in a
continued loose pressure gradient bringing no wind wave concerns.

Low level winds will increase out a touch of the east tonight into
Thursday, when low pressure crosses the ohio river valley. Still,
no advisory speeds expected. Relative high pressure then settles
back in Thursday night into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... As
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi44 min NNE 4.1 G 6 61°F 57°F1010.6 hPa
45175 3 mi33 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 58°F 57°F1010 hPa57°F
45022 31 mi22 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 54°F 53°F1 ft1011 hPa54°F
SRLM4 33 mi92 min WNW 6 57°F 58°F55°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi56 min NNE 6 G 12 63°F 1009.8 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi50 min NW 5.1 G 6 53°F1010 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi50 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 48°F1009.3 hPa55°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi44 min E 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 51°F1009.1 hPa59°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi50 min WNW 5.1 G 6 51°F 1010.3 hPa39°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi67 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F55°F76%1009.8 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi68 minVar 410.00 miOvercast64°F55°F75%1010.2 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F56°F77%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5SW3S4SW6W5N4E9E8SE8SE5CalmNE3N4NE5NE4NE3CalmCalmN3N4N4N4Calm
1 day agoSW3S4CalmW6W3CalmSE3SE8SE3CalmCalmSE5S5SE3CalmS5S3CalmS3W3CalmCalmW3SW5
2 days agoE6S4S6CalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmN5N6N4N3N4N5N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.