Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 5:28 PM EDT (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 255 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East wind 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201809200300;;893262 FZUS53 KAPX 191855 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 255 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-200300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191911
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
311 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 258 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Increasing rain chances tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: midday surface composite analysis shows
weak high pressure over northeast ontario... With the upper great
lakes sandwiched between a pair of fronts. A cold front stretches
from northwest ontario back into the dakotas... And has some fairly
chilly air behind it with current temperatures in the 40s 50s. To
the south and southwest is a warm front from nebraska east across
missouri and into southern portions of illinois indiana. Warm
sticky air mass south of this boundary with some 70+ degree dew
points. Zonal 140kt jet streak lies over northwest ontario northern
lake superior... With a broad zone of warm advection isentropic
ascent to the north of the warm front. This is helping drive an
area of showers thunderstorms across south dakota southern
minnesota eastern iowa... Riding along a low level theta-e gradient.

Closer to home... Stratus stratocumulus has been rather stubborn this
afternoon with only some thin spots opening up (and mostly have been
filling in with heating). Watching an area of showers some embedded
lightning strikes crossing central southern wisconsin... Suspect some
of this is being pushed along by an mcv.

Primary forecast concerns: looking at an increasing threat for
precipitation tonight... Starting with current activity over
wisconsin as it continues to push east (though this may weaken as it
moves away from better instability). Broad warm advection will be
the main driver for additional shower development tonight... Though
more impressive activity likely to be focused along north of warm
front over the midwest (southeast south dakota iowa-minnesota border
into southern wisconsin)... Where mean deep layer flow is mostly
parallel to this boundary so echo training heavy rain threat will
certainly be a concern. Northern fringes of this activity may move
into western lower during the pre-dawn hours Thursday... And qpf
forecast will reflect higher amounts over southwest half of the
forecast area overnight (but should be under one-half inch through
12z Thursday).

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 258 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: thunderstorm chances Thursday through
Friday morning... Some may be severe Thursday. Possible frost
Saturday morning.

A developing low pressure system over the northern plains will bring
moisture and synoptic support for rain showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through Friday morning as it traverses through the northern
great lakes region. Return flow (pwats of near 1.70 inches) Thursday
will bring chances of much needed rain. Rain will become more
widespread Thursday morning starting at the southern part of the cwa
as the warm front associated with this system that is oriented in a
west to east fashion moves northward. This northward movement will
bring the more widespread rain chances north through the day and
into eastern upper through the late afternoon and into the evening
hours. Thunder chances will increase into the afternoon and evening
hours Thursday. A southwesterly LLJ in excess of 50 knots could
produce damaging winds in even heavier rain showers... Let alone any
thunderstorms that develop. Also, with 0-6km bulk shear progged to
be in excess of 50kts, some storms could produce updrafts that may
also produce large hail. The cold front finally makes passage
sometime early Friday, bringing yet more chances of precipitation.

Some locations may see up to 2.00 inches of QPF by Friday morning
(wpc has the forecast area in slight risk for excessive
rainfall... Mostly eastern upper). Southerly winds will veer to the
northwest throughout the day Friday and be very gusty, with some
gusts nearing 35-40mph... Possibly locally higher... Especially near
the coast of the great lakes. As aformentioned system above departs
to the east, high pressure and much drier air will move into the
region... Providing precipitation free weather and cooler
temperatures Saturday... Possibly even some frost Saturday morning if
the sky clears quick enough Friday night. Thursday and Friday's
highs will generally be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Saturday will be
much cooler, only reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s behind the
aforementioned cold front. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s
Thursday and Friday and mid to upper 30s Saturday morning.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 258 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: possible frost Sunday morning?
high pressure mentioned above will continue to dominate northern
michigan's weather through Sunday and into Monday. It will once
again be a cool morning with possibly frost again for the forecast
area Sunday. Looks like the pattern will once again become active
thereafter, with several disturbances that may bring more chances of
rain through the forecast area early to midweek. Highs will
generally be in the 60s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 158 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
still lots of MVFR ceilings around at early afternoon as
stratocumulus has either been slow to mix out... Or has redeveloped
in areas that did clear out (briefly). Will probably see some
improvement in ceilings later this afternoon... With additional
higher level cloud cover streaming in from the west. Precipitation
chances will increase overnight and likely result in a return to
at least MVFR conditions by Thursday morning.

Marine
Issued at 258 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
main issue upcoming is the potential for gales starting later
Thursday and particularly into Friday with cold front passage and
associated cold advection isentropic downsloping. Winds will still
be gusty ahead of the cold front Thursday from the east with winds
veering south during the day... Then a period of southerly gale force
gusts Thursday night before winds shift to the west northwest Friday
morning. Current gale watch will remain unchanged.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lmz341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lsz321.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi40 min E 5.1 G 7 63°F 67°F1018 hPa58°F
45175 3 mi28 min ESE 7.8 G 12 63°F 68°F1 ft1019 hPa (-1.0)
WSLM4 20 mi28 min SSW 2.9 62°F 65°F1019.1 hPa (-0.7)53°F
45022 31 mi28 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 69°F1 ft1019.9 hPa (-0.7)55°F
SRLM4 33 mi58 min E 12 60°F 65°F55°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi48 min SSE 1 G 1.9 63°F 1018.3 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 7 63°F 61°F1018.9 hPa52°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi40 min SE 6 G 8 61°F1018.1 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi46 min SE 6 G 9.9 61°F 64°F1018.6 hPa57°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 7 61°F 1018.7 hPa45°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi33 minE 710.00 miOvercast61°F53°F76%1019 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi34 minSE 410.00 miOvercast66°F53°F63%1019 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi33 minNE 310.00 miOvercast64°F56°F78%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N7N7N11
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N7NW6NW5NW5NW4NE5NE6NE7NE4NE7NE7E8E6E10
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1 day agoW11
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G18
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CalmNW3NW6NW5N5NE7N6NE6NE5CalmN3CalmCalmW5W8W5W8
2 days agoE6E6E7E8SE7S6S5S7S8S5S7S8S7S6S4SW5SW9
G15
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SW5SW11
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W7SW10
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G14
W13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.