Monday, June26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 9:04PM Monday June 26, 2017 1:39 AM PDT (08:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:29AMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 260436 aaa
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
925 pm pdt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis High pressure over the pacific northwest will weaken over
northwestern oregon and southwestern washington. A southerly marine
surge will be working up the coast will then extend inland tonight
bringing much cooler temps on Monday. There is a slight chance for
some high-based thunderstorms over the portions of the forecast area
on Monday. Dry northwesterly flow sets up later this week across the
region, bringing more seasonable temperatures and a pattern of
morning clouds and afternoon sunshine.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... Our final day of heat is
coming to a close. Records fell at hillsboro and vancouver and
portland tied it's record for the date. Please our record event
report, which will be posted on our homepage shortly.

An examination of surface observations reveals cooler marine
spreading into the willamette valley and columbia river gorge. The
ast-pdx gradient peaked at 6mb this evening and still remains >4mb so
we should continue to see westerly winds spread cooler marine air
through the coast range gaps for a good part of the night. It should
be noted that this morning's low temperature was 75f at troutdale,
which if it holds through 1am would be the warmest minimum
temperature on record at troutdale. However, we are not expecting
this to happen given the above mentioned cooler air filtering into
the region. Nonetheless, temperatures could be sneakily close to the
all time record of 71f even by 1am so it's worth monitoring.

Thunderstorms erupted over much of southwest oregon earlier this
evening. A few weaker thunderstorms developed over lane county and
moved northward into far eastern linn and marion counties before
pushing east of the cascade crest. This thunderstorm development has
been in response to daytime heating and the approach of an upper
level shortwave trough currently spinning off the california coast
destabilizing the atmosphere. In general, most of this thunderstorm
activity should come to a close over the next few hours as the
boundary layer continues to cool, but cannot rule out an outflow from
ongoing convection kicking off another thunderstorm or two.

Nonetheless, mid level lapse rates of 8c+ continue to reside over
much of northwest oregon and southwest washington per the latest spc
mesoanalysis. In addition, there has been an extensive altocumulus
castellanus field offshore per visible satellite imagery this
evening. The NAM and GFS models do pick up on this elevated
instability in the form of a negative thetae lapse rates between
700-500mb. These models weaken this instability slightly overnight,
but do spread it eastward into our CWA late tonight and Monday
morning. While the main vort MAX and synoptic scale lift will likely
slide south of our cwa, cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorms
developing over the CWA later tonight and Monday morning as this area
of instability and upper level diffluence currently offshore spreads
eastward over the region. As a result, extended the slight chance
mention of thunderstorms through 18z Monday for much of the
cwa... Albeit the threat could linger for a few hours past this time
based on latest model guidance.

Considerably cooler temperatures on Monday for interior locations
look on track. A northwesterly flow pattern will bring more marine
cloud cover and even cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

Clearing on both of these days could come later than earlier in the
afternoon with perhaps a few areas of morning drizzle possible along
the north coast and or in the cascade foothills.

Finally... Krtx radar is currently experiencing an outage. Electronic
technicians are at the site diagnosing the problem, but we are unsure
when it will return to service. Neuman

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... No changes... Previous
discussion from Sunday afternoon follows... Models continue to
show an upper level ridge building over the pac NW for the latter
half of the work week. This will bring slightly warmer temps to the
forecast area through the weekend, with periods of morning clouds.

The good news is that the ridge will not be as strong later this
week so temps will likely only reach into the 80s. Conditions are
expected to remain dry through the long term period, but there is a
hint that the upper level trough may swing south and impact the area
over the weekend. Will need to monitor this time period as there has
been a lot of run to run variability with the evolution of the
trough. 64

Aviation A thermal trough will push east of the cascades
tonight, allowing a surge of marine air and stratus clouds to
push into the interior. As the onshore flow strengthens and the
marine layer deepens tonight, the ifr stratus should gradually
lift to MVFR, but that may not happen until Monday morning. The
latest fcst models suggest that MVFR stratus will spread into the
southern willamette valley as early as 06z mon, then progress
through the rest of the interior lowlands overnight. Expect
widespread MVFR by 15z. The interior clouds will gradually lift
and scatter during the day tomorrow, withVFR CIGS by late
morning. The coast may hang onto MVFR well into the afternoon.

An approaching upper level trough will bring a slight chance for
elevated thunderstorms late tonight and tomorrow morning, with
the best chances over the southern willamette valley and lane
county cascades.

Kpdx and approaches... MVFR stratus likely to arrive 12-15z Mon ,
but lift toVFR by about 18z. Bowen pyle

Marine A southerly wind reversal worked through the nearshore
waters today, while winds over the outer waters remained out of
the northwest. Expect little change through tonight. Weak high
pres will build in Mon and remain through most of next week. This
will bring a return to northerly winds. The winds may come close
to small craft advisory threshold during the afternoon and
evening on Tue and wed, but it looks very borderline. Models show
the high pres weakening late next week.

Seas to continue well below 10 ft for the next several days.

There is the potential for another uni-wave set-up Tue and wed.

Overall, despite fairly low wave heights, the pre-dominant wind
wave component will make for choppy sea conditions. Bowen pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi51 min 64°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 05:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:27 AM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM PDT     9.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM PDT     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:55 PM PDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 05:02 AM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM PDT     9.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 PM PDT     -1.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM PDT     8.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:14 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.