Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carson, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:04PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:53 AM PST (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carson, WA
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location: 45.8, -121.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 221733
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
932 am pst Mon jan 22 2018
aviation section updated below...

Synopsis Cool onshore flow continues to spread showers across much
of southwest washington and northwest oregon this morning. Snow
levels will remain below the cascade passes today, with a few
additional inches of snow expected. Showers will decrease later this
afternoon and evening, but the break will be brief as our next potent
pacific frontal system arrives Tuesday for more rain, coastal wind,
and plenty of snow for the higher cascades. The front is expected to
stall Tuesday night and Wednesday, leading to a prolonged period of
fairly steady rain and cascades snow. The front will finally be
pushed east as a strong and cold upper trough moves into the pac nw.

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected later Wednesday
into Thursday, with snow levels lowering into the foothills. Showers
linger into Friday, then another potent system appears likely to
arrive during the weekend.

Short term Today through Wednesday... Morning update: snow
accumulations across the cascades have dwindled down and will let
the advisories expire as planned. There is still, however, potential
to pick up a quick inch or two of accumulation under a concentrated
shower. Cannot justify extending the statements though. Moving
forward, 12z model runs appear to have changed little from their
previous counterparts. Will go ahead and issue statements covering
the cascades for the next storm tomorrow with impacts lasting
through early Wednesday night. Snow levels are a bit tricky given
the upper pattern's zonal flow and trajectory of the upper low.

There will be warmer air aloft pushed northward as the upper low
drifts north off the noam coast and that will serve to lift snow
levels for a significant period Wednesday. Still, it appears there
will be enough accumulation across the higher cascades to warrant
and advisory for the north oregon and lane county cascades above
5500 feet, and then a warning for the south washington cascades
above 5000 feet. Expect to issue the statements by 10 am. Jbonk
bulk of the previous discussion follows: weak, transitory ridging
will slide across the pac NW for a break in the precip tonight.

Given the wet weather we have had lately, we may need to watch for
fog tonight if any clearing materializes. Decided against adding fog
to the forecast as it appears high clouds will be spreading onshore
in advance of a strong frontal system expected to impact the area
Tuesday and Wednesday. The main low pressure system associated with
this front is just now taking shape out near 40n 150w, and is
expected to rapidly strengthen and curl north toward haida gwaii
Tuesday, meanwhile pushing its occluding cold front toward the coast.

Models have sped this system up a bit over the past several runs,
with precip now expected to spread across the forecast area Tuesday
morning. This has implications for the hood river valley and eastern
skamania county, where easterly gradients ahead of the incoming
system will tend to lock cold air in place as precip arrives. While
surface temperatures are expected to hover near freezing, the column
appears cool enough to support snow levels around 1000 feet around
hood river and mount adams Tuesday morning. Luckily, precip is
expected to start off light, so it appears the upper hood river
valley will only get an inch or two of snow before snow levels jump
to 3000-4000 feet Tuesday afternoon. A few wet snowflakes may mix
down to hood river proper Tuesday morning, but no impacts are
expected.

Models are showing good agreement now that this system will have
decent access to subtropical moisture. The front is also expected to
stall over our forecast area through Wed as additional waves of low
pressure develop along it and slow the progress of the front. QPF is
expected to be in the 2 to 4 inch range for the higher terrain tue
through wed, with 0.75 to 1.5 inches for the inland valleys. While
rainfall doesn't appear sufficient for significant hydro issues, it
does look to be enough to produce heavy snow for especially the
higher cascades. Snow levels will likely rise above the cascade
passes ahead of the front Tuesday, but the higher ski resort
elevations should see mainly snow, especially santiam pass northward.

Therefore 1 to perhaps 2 feet of snow may fall at these higher
elevations. We strongly considered a winter storm watch for these
areas, but after some collaboration we and WFO seattle decided to
hold off to avoid confusion with the event ongoing this morning.

Winds along the coast will be strong and gusty, but at this point it
appears most of the beaches and headlands will see gusts 45-55 mph;
just below warning criteria. Timing and location of above-mentioned
waves of low pressure along the front will be key to whether or not
winds are stronger. If low pressure develops along the front and
heads into southern oregon before the front moves onshore, that would
cut down on the wind threat. On the other hand, if a low develops
along the front and strengthens while tracking up the oregon coast
Tuesday (or Wednesday), winds would be stronger and may extend
further inland than currently expected. Models offer a variety of
solutions on where when said waves of low pressure will develop and
track along the front, so we're keeping the forecast less specific
for now. Weagle

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Wednesday
night through Sunday... Active weather pattern to continue through
Friday as a slow-moving trough keeps swinging moisture into the
pacific northwest.

Snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday to around 1500 ft,
then possibly lower by Friday morning. with 850-mb temps lowering
to around -6c on both the GFS and ecmwf, straight model guidance is
trying to bring snow levels down to 500-800 ft, but the pattern
doesn't seem conducive for low-elevation snow (southerly winds and
onshore pressure gradient). Looking at the 1000-500-mb thicknesses,
under onshore flow, we typically need thicknesses below 522 dam for
snow levels below 1000 ft (local study). Both the GFS and ECMWF have
thickness around 522-524 dam. The ECMWF is the lower of the two,
with lowest thickness around 521.6 dam Friday morning. Because of
the pattern and the uncertainty with it being 6 days out, for now i
have limited snow levels to 1000 ft. "if" this does pans out we may
see some snow mix down to around 800 ft; however, with precipitation
fairly light on Friday and ground temperatures above freezing, we
won't see a lot of snow and it shouldn't accumulate below 1000 ft.

Snow levels start to come back up Friday evening as a milder system
starts to move in with another surge of moisture. Saturday morning
will be pretty wet, but ridging starts to build Saturday afternoon,
pushing the moisture plume north by late Saturday night or early
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with how far north this ridge will
build. This will determine whether we dry out on Sunday. Both the
gfs and ECMWF send the plume of moisture north into northern
washington and british columbia, while the canadian cmc sags the
moisture plume farther south over our area. Have leaned toward drier
pops, while keeping a chance due to uncertainty in how far north the
ridge will build over the west coast. -mccoy

Aviation MostlyVFR conditions with isolated MVFR conditions.

Showers will become less numerous this afternoon. Steady rain
will move in tomorrow morning with increasing southerly winds.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions expected through the period.

Steady rain and gusty southerly winds will arrive tomorrow
morning. Bentley

Marine A relatively quiet period today as weak high pressure
builds over the waters. But the next gales arrive to the outer
waters late tonight then closer to the coastline Tue morning. A
gale warning has been issued for this event. Seas do not look
quite as high on Tuesday as this past system with seas likely
peaking at or below 20 feet.

The next storm system of concern arrives Wednesday night into
Thursday. There is now a bit better model agreement now with an
occluding surface low tracking towards vancouver island. Gale
force winds are likely again, seas will likely be a bit higher
and may exceed 20 feet given the track and strength of this low.

There is surprisingly good model agreement into the weekend
with enough confidence to expect another round of gale force
winds and high seas next weekend. The active pattern appears to
continues into early next week. Mh bentley

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for
northern oregon cascades.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 8 pm pst
Wednesday for cascades in lane county.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Gale warning from 7 am to 10 pm pst Tuesday for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am pst Tuesday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 10 nm.

Gale warning from 1 am to 10 pm pst Tuesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 1 am pst Tuesday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 6 am
pst Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 59 mi54 min 44°F1026.4 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Ellsworth, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Ellsworth
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 06:18 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:37 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM PST     8.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:50 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:40 PM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.264.53.11.91.10.71.135.67.68.48.17.46.45.24.23.42.92.83.85.87.57.8

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Vancouver
Click for MapNote: The Columbia River is subject to annual freshets. Short range predictions are available at local river forecast centers. The data for stations above Harrington Point apply only during low river stages. There is a tidal influence along most of the

Mon -- 05:53 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:32 AM PST     8.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:38 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:25 PM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:14 PM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.75.43.92.51.50.90.71.74.16.68.18.37.975.94.83.83.12.834.66.77.87.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.