Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Timber, MT
May 6, 2024 3:58 AM MDT (09:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:06 AM Moonset 6:13 PM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 060949 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 349 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday night...
A powerful storm system currently moving into Wyoming from Utah will track E/NE today and settle into the western Dakotas by evening. Models are in slightly better agreement and are each drifting the closed low a little further west on Tuesday (The GFS more so). The main change from previous forecasts is that the band of precipitation generated by the negatively tilted trough today is initiated further west this morning under strong difluence/divergent flow. This means much better chance of rainfall for the Billings vicinity today and nearby areas to the south and east. Due to strong west/northwest wind developing and the strong dynamics involved, look for a sharp edge to the moderate/heavy precipitation with downsloping limiting precip in our western foothills and nearby plains. The upper low wraps up and strengthens this evening in NW South Dakota which will keep the potential for strong winds going overnight...especially in our western zones where we have a high wind warning in place. The high winds may extend a further out east and southeast tonight and Tuesday as the upper low pivots west with an impressive corridor of 700 mb winds from the Snowies to the Black Hills. Trowal effects around the system will produce mixing and strong upward motion which models suggest will produce a strong band of precipitation over portions of our CWA
Where this band sets up Tuesday is uncertain as its placement is very sensitive to the exact position of the upper low. For now the best chance of moderate/heavy rainfall is from Yellowstone County eastward on Tuesday. Rainfall and upward motion may also limit the strength of wind gusts over our central/eastern zones Tuesday.
However, this is not a system we are accustomed to, and the dynamics may still generate high winds to the surface. For now we will hold on to the High Wind Watch, but start it at midnight tonight, while the High Wind Warning for the foothills still looks reasonable. We will need to monitor southeast Montana as well as its close proximity to the surface low and the 700 mb wind max setting up just over head late tonight into Tuesday may lead to gusts 50-60 mph in the Powder River/Carter County area, especially n higher hills, though again it may be fighting rainfall/upward motion limiting this potential. We will add a High Wind Watch to Powder River. Southern Rosebud and Carter Counties from 6 PM this evening to 6 Pm Tuesday.
As far as snowfall goes the western mountains are still expected to see limited accumulation in the high country for the short term period with less than 6 inches of snow for the Beartooth/Crazy mountains, though strong wind gusts will still make conditions difficult for those working on the Beartooth Pass. Winter weather advisory for the Bighorn mountains continues where around 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected to fall from early this morning into the evening hours, mainly on west facing slopes. Winds will be strong at times in this area as well, so those planning to head up to the Bighorns should be prepared for snow and blowing snow issues.
Please keep up to date on the latest forecasts which will likely be adjusted as this weather event unfolds. BT
Wednesday through Monday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Long duration weather system continues Wednesday/Thursday bringing significant rain, strong winds, and high elevation snow
- Friday through the weekend will likely see ridging return bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions
There is still stubborn model and ensemble disagreement in the placement of the surface low pressure system leading to uncertainty in the long term forecast. Looking at WPC clusters the GFS still wants to keep the low farther to the west bringing more precipitation to TFXs CWA and significantly lower precipitation totals for locations in our east. Currently this solutions has a 40% chance of occurrence. The Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are settling on a different solution keeping the low farther to the east bringing heavier precipitation to GGWs CWA and locations in our east. This solution currently has a 60% chance of occuring. Thursday will be a similar story only with more model mixing than Wednesday. Roughly 50% of models have the low farther to the east with the other 50% keeping it farther to the west. In this case the farther the low is to the west the more precipitation that will be seen across the region. For event totals, there is general agreement in precipitation amounts from Rosebud County and locations to the west and large disagreement in rainfall totals for locations to the east. Currently ensembles are showing a 40-50% chance of 1 in of precipitation for locations west of Billings, a 60-80% chance for locations from Billings to Miles City, and a 60-70% chance for locations in the east such as Baker. High elevations will get significant snowfall Wednesday before snowfall intensity lowers on Thursday. Locations in the Bighorns and Beartooths have 70-80% chance of getting over 1 foot of snow from this system. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will lead to dangerous in the backcountry.
Winds will also be a large factor Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday morning could see gusts into the 40s and 50s mph from Bighorn up to Wheatland Counties. These locations have a 60-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 50mph. Winds will continue to be strong in these areas until the overnight hours when winds look to calm.
Thursday could see breezy conditions linger in the afternoon, though it will be much calmer than Wednesday with gusts generally in the 20s mph. Friday into Saturday there is the potential (50%)
for an upper wave to drop south near our eastern border that would bring the return for gusty winds in the 30s mph, mainly for locations from Rosebud county and east.
After this long duration storm system moves out of the area, there is good ensemble agreement that some form of ridging will return to the region bringing dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will likely go from the 50sF Wednesday and Thursday to 70sF for the weekend. Torgerson
AVIATION
Isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will persist in the early morning hours today before becoming more widespread after 12Z this morning. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms today will be from KBIL and locations to the east. Strong winds will be present across most of the region today with Widespread gusts into the 30s and 40s kts with some locations in the west such as K6SO, K1KM, and KLVM approaching 50 kts. Mountains will likely be obscured from high elevation snow. Torgerson
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053 042/053 039/049 042/059 042/067 044/073 047/077 8/R 23/O 69/O 97/T 22/R 01/U 12/T LVM 052 036/048 036/046 038/055 036/064 038/070 043/074 4/R 13/O 69/O 95/R 11/B 01/U 12/R HDN 052 040/054 037/051 041/061 041/067 039/075 043/077 9/R 44/R 89/R 98/R 32/R 01/U 12/T MLS 056 037/047 037/054 041/063 043/066 043/072 045/076 9/T 86/R 79/R 65/R 21/B 00/U 11/U 4BQ 055 038/051 036/050 039/061 043/064 042/070 043/074 9/R 84/O 58/R 86/R 22/R 00/U 11/U BHK 061 035/047 033/054 037/062 040/064 039/069 040/072 8/T 97/R 58/R 54/R 11/B 00/U 11/U SHR 050 039/056 035/047 036/056 038/063 037/069 040/073 9/R 32/R 59/O 97/T 32/R 11/U 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night FOR ZONES 29-34-42-57-138-170-173-235.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 34-42-138-170-235.
High Wind Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon FOR ZONES 36-37-58.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 63-65-66-141-172-228.
WY...High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night FOR ZONE 199.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 199.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 198.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 349 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Tuesday night...
A powerful storm system currently moving into Wyoming from Utah will track E/NE today and settle into the western Dakotas by evening. Models are in slightly better agreement and are each drifting the closed low a little further west on Tuesday (The GFS more so). The main change from previous forecasts is that the band of precipitation generated by the negatively tilted trough today is initiated further west this morning under strong difluence/divergent flow. This means much better chance of rainfall for the Billings vicinity today and nearby areas to the south and east. Due to strong west/northwest wind developing and the strong dynamics involved, look for a sharp edge to the moderate/heavy precipitation with downsloping limiting precip in our western foothills and nearby plains. The upper low wraps up and strengthens this evening in NW South Dakota which will keep the potential for strong winds going overnight...especially in our western zones where we have a high wind warning in place. The high winds may extend a further out east and southeast tonight and Tuesday as the upper low pivots west with an impressive corridor of 700 mb winds from the Snowies to the Black Hills. Trowal effects around the system will produce mixing and strong upward motion which models suggest will produce a strong band of precipitation over portions of our CWA
Where this band sets up Tuesday is uncertain as its placement is very sensitive to the exact position of the upper low. For now the best chance of moderate/heavy rainfall is from Yellowstone County eastward on Tuesday. Rainfall and upward motion may also limit the strength of wind gusts over our central/eastern zones Tuesday.
However, this is not a system we are accustomed to, and the dynamics may still generate high winds to the surface. For now we will hold on to the High Wind Watch, but start it at midnight tonight, while the High Wind Warning for the foothills still looks reasonable. We will need to monitor southeast Montana as well as its close proximity to the surface low and the 700 mb wind max setting up just over head late tonight into Tuesday may lead to gusts 50-60 mph in the Powder River/Carter County area, especially n higher hills, though again it may be fighting rainfall/upward motion limiting this potential. We will add a High Wind Watch to Powder River. Southern Rosebud and Carter Counties from 6 PM this evening to 6 Pm Tuesday.
As far as snowfall goes the western mountains are still expected to see limited accumulation in the high country for the short term period with less than 6 inches of snow for the Beartooth/Crazy mountains, though strong wind gusts will still make conditions difficult for those working on the Beartooth Pass. Winter weather advisory for the Bighorn mountains continues where around 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected to fall from early this morning into the evening hours, mainly on west facing slopes. Winds will be strong at times in this area as well, so those planning to head up to the Bighorns should be prepared for snow and blowing snow issues.
Please keep up to date on the latest forecasts which will likely be adjusted as this weather event unfolds. BT
Wednesday through Monday...
KEY MESSAGES
- Long duration weather system continues Wednesday/Thursday bringing significant rain, strong winds, and high elevation snow
- Friday through the weekend will likely see ridging return bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions
There is still stubborn model and ensemble disagreement in the placement of the surface low pressure system leading to uncertainty in the long term forecast. Looking at WPC clusters the GFS still wants to keep the low farther to the west bringing more precipitation to TFXs CWA and significantly lower precipitation totals for locations in our east. Currently this solutions has a 40% chance of occurrence. The Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are settling on a different solution keeping the low farther to the east bringing heavier precipitation to GGWs CWA and locations in our east. This solution currently has a 60% chance of occuring. Thursday will be a similar story only with more model mixing than Wednesday. Roughly 50% of models have the low farther to the east with the other 50% keeping it farther to the west. In this case the farther the low is to the west the more precipitation that will be seen across the region. For event totals, there is general agreement in precipitation amounts from Rosebud County and locations to the west and large disagreement in rainfall totals for locations to the east. Currently ensembles are showing a 40-50% chance of 1 in of precipitation for locations west of Billings, a 60-80% chance for locations from Billings to Miles City, and a 60-70% chance for locations in the east such as Baker. High elevations will get significant snowfall Wednesday before snowfall intensity lowers on Thursday. Locations in the Bighorns and Beartooths have 70-80% chance of getting over 1 foot of snow from this system. The combination of heavy snow and strong winds will lead to dangerous in the backcountry.
Winds will also be a large factor Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday morning could see gusts into the 40s and 50s mph from Bighorn up to Wheatland Counties. These locations have a 60-80% chance of getting a wind gust over 50mph. Winds will continue to be strong in these areas until the overnight hours when winds look to calm.
Thursday could see breezy conditions linger in the afternoon, though it will be much calmer than Wednesday with gusts generally in the 20s mph. Friday into Saturday there is the potential (50%)
for an upper wave to drop south near our eastern border that would bring the return for gusty winds in the 30s mph, mainly for locations from Rosebud county and east.
After this long duration storm system moves out of the area, there is good ensemble agreement that some form of ridging will return to the region bringing dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will likely go from the 50sF Wednesday and Thursday to 70sF for the weekend. Torgerson
AVIATION
Isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will persist in the early morning hours today before becoming more widespread after 12Z this morning. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms today will be from KBIL and locations to the east. Strong winds will be present across most of the region today with Widespread gusts into the 30s and 40s kts with some locations in the west such as K6SO, K1KM, and KLVM approaching 50 kts. Mountains will likely be obscured from high elevation snow. Torgerson
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053 042/053 039/049 042/059 042/067 044/073 047/077 8/R 23/O 69/O 97/T 22/R 01/U 12/T LVM 052 036/048 036/046 038/055 036/064 038/070 043/074 4/R 13/O 69/O 95/R 11/B 01/U 12/R HDN 052 040/054 037/051 041/061 041/067 039/075 043/077 9/R 44/R 89/R 98/R 32/R 01/U 12/T MLS 056 037/047 037/054 041/063 043/066 043/072 045/076 9/T 86/R 79/R 65/R 21/B 00/U 11/U 4BQ 055 038/051 036/050 039/061 043/064 042/070 043/074 9/R 84/O 58/R 86/R 22/R 00/U 11/U BHK 061 035/047 033/054 037/062 040/064 039/069 040/072 8/T 97/R 58/R 54/R 11/B 00/U 11/U SHR 050 039/056 035/047 036/056 038/063 037/069 040/073 9/R 32/R 59/O 97/T 32/R 11/U 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night FOR ZONES 29-34-42-57-138-170-173-235.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 34-42-138-170-235.
High Wind Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon FOR ZONES 36-37-58.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 63-65-66-141-172-228.
WY...High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night FOR ZONE 199.
High Wind Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 199.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 198.
Billings, MT,
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