Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:04 AM   Moonset 2:07 PM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 810 Pm Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Active weather persists through the weekend followed by a low pressure over the northeast pacific with additional weakening system affecting the waters into early next week. Calmer more summer-like weather returns around the middle of next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 040501 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1001 PM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool and wet this weekend as an upper low moves into western OR and northern CA, bringing a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate stratiform rain late Friday through Saturday.
Remaining cool Sunday through Tuesday with showers at times. Upper level ridging will then bring a quick warmup mid to late week, with high temperatures likely rising above 80 degrees across the interior lowlands by Friday.

SHORT TERM
Friday through Sunday night...Surface weather analysis from 1pm Friday revealed a warm front/cold front pair over the coastal waters moving east towards the coast. This frontal system was associated with a broad area of low pressure centered around 400-500 miles west of Vancouver Island. A wave of moisture ahead of the aforementioned warm front has already resulted in light rain at the coast. This moisture will continue spreading inland Friday afternoon as the system's warm front lifts over the area. Once rain begins, expect a prolonged period of light to occasionally moderate stratiform rain across all of northwest OR and southwest WA through the day on Saturday as the trailing cold front pushes through. Precip will transition to showers on Sunday within the post-frontal environment. This system will have an abundant amount of moisture as IVT values max out around 300-400 kg/ms this evening. Models still show precipitable water values around 1 inch, which is about two standard deviations above normal for this time of year.

There have been minimal changes the total QPF forecast with this system. Still expect around 1-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands, and 1.5-2 inches for the coast and mountains from late morning today to tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. No impactful winter weather is expected for the Cascade passes today as snow levels will rise above 6500 to 7000 feet. Despite the impressive rain amounts for early May, no flooding concerns are expected as hourly rain rates look to generally be under 0.2 inches/hr, except under heavier showers on Sunday. HEFS probabilistic guidance continues to show a less than 5% chance of reaching action stage for the majority of rivers. Two rivers with the highest chances of reaching action stage are Marys River at Philomath (5-10% chance) and Tualatin River near Dilley (15% chance).

As the low pressure system progresses southward toward California Saturday, cold air aloft will return and snow levels will fall back down to around 3500 to 4000 feet. Given the precip expected this weekend, another round of winter weather will impact the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued above 3500 feet for the North Oregon Cascades to the Lane County Cascades from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday morning. These locations are forecast to receive around 4 to 10 inches of snow, except up to 16 inches for the highest peaks above 5000 feet. Those traveling through the passes this weekend should prepare for winter weather conditions. Meanwhile, the lowlands will continue to see rain showers through the weekend. -TK/Alviz


LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...The long term forecast is highlighted by a rapid change in the weather pattern from cool and showery conditions Monday through Tuesday to much warmer and drier conditions late in the week. Models and their ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving across Washington and Oregon Monday into Tuesday, bringing a shift from westerly flow aloft to northwesterly behind the trough axis. This trough will bring the continuation of cool and showery weather with high temps mainly in the 50s and snow levels around 4000 ft on Monday falling to 3000 ft on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, confidence is high for a rapid shift in the weather pattern from cool and wet to warm and dry. This abrupt shift is the result of an upper level ridge that is set to build over the region, and all four clusters shown in WPC's cluster analysis depict this ridge with varying amplitudes. The deterministic NBM currently suggests highs in the 60s Wednesday, 70s Thursday (except 60s at the coast), and 80s Friday (except low 70s at the coast). The coolest model solutions are similar to the NBM 10th percentile, showing inland high temps only peaking in the mid 70s on Friday. Meanwhile, the warmest model solutions show highs near 90 degrees from Portland to Eugene. Either way, temps will be running above normal for this time of year. The probability for high temps at or above 80 degrees on Friday is already at 70-80% across the interior lowlands, which is quite high for a forecast that is seven days out. Overall, the warmest temps of the year so far are likely to occur next weekend.
This may draw some people to area rivers and/or lakes, but keep in mind water temps are still very cold and river currents will be swift with mountain snowmelt. We plan on actively messaging cold water safety tips late next week in preparation for the warm weather ahead, as cold water shock and hypothermia will be a very real risk for anyone who decides to take a swim. -TK

AVIATION
Rain has spread across the entire CWA as a surface low approaches the coast and sends a cold front through the area. A deep upper level trough off the PNW coast will continue to drop southeast through Saturday. Conditions are mainly MVFR across the area with IFR conditions at KNOP due to low CIGs and some VIS restrictions from light to moderate rain. Guidance suggests a low to moderate (20-50%) chance of IFR CIGs developing across the interior valley periodically through 15Z. Confidence in IFR CIGs developing at any location during this time period is uncertain and sporadic so will keep mainly MVFR conditions in the forecast.
Rainy cloudy conditions will continue through all of Saturday as the upper level trough dips toward southern Oregon and northern California through the day.

Winds are currently our of the southeast around 5-10 knots but will gradually veer to the southwest through the night. Winds will turn more westerly Saturday afternoon around 10 knots.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly MVFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as a potent system impacts the area. Light to moderate rain has overspread the entire metro and will persist through Saturday. MVFR CIGs will be maintained through the day with a low/moderate chance for IFR CIGs through 15Z but confidence is not high at any given location. It is more likely that CIGs will bounce back and forth between MVFR and IFR at times. Light southeast winds around 5 knots will turn more west/southwesterly through the night. Winds will turn westerly Saturday afternoon around 10 knots. -Batz

MARINE
A cold front associated with a low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska continues to spread rainfall across the region this afternoon. Winds associated with this feature have been gusting around 20-35 knots based on the very limited bouy observations available but at least this lines up well with the latest high- resolution guidance. The current Small Craft Advisory was expanded to include the inner waters south of Cape Falcon where gusts up to 25 knots are expected to occur with more regularity into the evening - although that's not to say isolated gusts of this magnitude won't be found further north. Winds ease this evening into Saturday morning, but expect to see a period of marginally steep seas (6 to 8 ft at 8 to 9 seconds) Saturday afternoon and evening over both the inner and outer waters.
Otherwise, anticipate another burst of SW wind gusts near 20-30 knots Sunday into Monday morning before we begin a transition to a calmer weather pattern and eventual shift to N-NW winds Tuesday and Wednesday. -Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Nehalem
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Fri -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:12 AM PDT     1.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:12 AM PDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:27 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:28 PM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Brighton
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Fri -- 03:10 AM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:46 AM PDT     6.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:07 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:25 PM PDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:02 PM PDT     6.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brighton, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

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