Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 1:51 PM   Moonset 2:16 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 227 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 7 ft Friday noon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.24 kt at 1213 pm Thursday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.1 kt at 107 am Friday. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.09 kt at 112 pm Friday. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ200 227 Pm Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure rebuilds over the waters tonight in the wake of a frontal passage. So expect steep, choppy seas tonight into Friday. High pressure continues through the weekend with the next significant frontal passage Monday night.

FXUS66 KPQR 170645 AAB AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1145 PM PDT Thu May 16 2024

Updated aviation discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A weak cool front just offshore will push inland tonight.
Spotty drizzle or light rain possible, but mainly this front will reinforce the cooler onshore flow. So, back to typical mid-spring pattern, with morning clouds giving way to partly sunny afternoons.
Temperatures will be more typical of mid-May. Another weakening front will arrive later Friday into Friday night, with a better chance of showers. Unsettled weather will continue into early next week.

SHORT TERM
(Thu afternoon through Sunday)...Weather patterns have shifted, bringing weather and temperatures more in alignment with what would expect for mid-May. Upper trough will sit over the southeast Gulf of Alaska into western Canada through the weekend. A weakening front is pushing into far northwest Washington this afternoon, and drapes down off the north Oregon coast. This front will push inland over rest of western Washington and western Oregon through this evening. But, not a lot of lift with precipitation, as main effect will be increasing lower-mid level clouds. That said, will keep for spotty light rain and occasional drizzle along the coast into the nearby Coastal mtns. Otherwise, only spotty sprinkles farther inland overnight as the front moves inland. With the marine layer deepening, could see areas of drizzle inland early Fri am, but suspect that mainly as move closer to the Cascades foothills.

With the deep marine layer around on Friday, will see quite a bit of clouds around region. With cooler upper trough over the region, and with the breaks in the cloud cover on Friday, will see isolated to scattered showers around region. Best chance will be over the higher terrain, including the Coast Range/Willapa Hills and the south Washington Cascades. Still rainfall not all that much, with a Trace to 0.05 for most areas, though a few spots could get up to 0.15 inch, but those more likely in the Willapa Hills into south Washington Cascades.

Another weakening front will arrive later Friday into Friday night.
This front will be much like the system today, with spotty rain or drizzle into the coastal and coastal mtn areas. But, with air mass a bit more moist, do have a better chance of showers for Sat. Again, any rainfall is not all that much again, and even that will favor areas along the coast, and into the higher terrain from around Tillamook inland towards south Washington Cascades. /Rockey

LONG TERM
(SUN to WED)...Little to minimal change in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as mild temperatures and a few sprinkles remain. Monday appears to be warmer than Sunday as the NBM shows ranges between 66-74 degrees F (the 25th-75th percentile) in Portland, 59-62 degree F along the coast, and 64-71 degrees F in Hood River. Any rain that does fall on these two days will be light and showery. Long term ensembles have narrowed in on a pattern finally where as yesterday there was still quite a bit of variation between them. On Tuesday, there is a trend towards troughing but the depth of that trough still remains unknown. Given that that is 6 days out, there is still time for it to shift. Have trended in the route of the grand ensemble which is showing moderate troughing, rain, northerly winds and moderate temperatures. The long-term forecast is unremarkable but there remains high uncertainty on Tuesday and Wednesday in regards to temperatures and precipitation accumulation. /Muessle

AVIATION
At 0630z Friday, a weak front was moving eastward over southwest WA and the Willamette Valley towards the Cascades. Radar and surface weather observations depicted spotty light rain showers with this frontal passage, however conditions generally remained VFR inland. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 kt were also being observed with the frontal passage. Winds will weaken behind the front Friday morning. Cigs along the coast have lifted to MVFR thresholds and should lift to VFR later Friday morning. However, cannot rule out LIFR/IFR cigs at KONP through 18z Friday (20-25% chance).

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions through Friday evening as skies begin clearing out towards 12z Friday. At 0630z Friday, northwest winds were gusting close to 20 kt as a weak front was moving through the area. Suspect these wind gusts will continue through 10-11z Friday before diminishing. -TK

MARINE
A weak front moved across the waters this afternoon.
Behind the front will see northwest winds increase to around 20-25 kt over most of the waters. It does appear the nearshore zones PZZ252 & 253 will attain Small Craft Advisory winds tonight or Friday. However with relatively short period fresh swell moving into the waters later tonight and Friday seas will be rather choppy at 7 to 9 ft with a 9 second period.

Friday and into the weekend will see a return of high pressure which will result in a typical summertime northerly flow regime with wind gusts peaking in strength during the afternoon/evening hours each day. The strongest winds will occur over the southern waters where small craft advisory level wind gusts to 25 kt are likely to occur again.
/mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ251-271-272.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ252.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday for PZZ273.

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