Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Ignace, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:12PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:59 AM EDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1039 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Overnight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201905211045;;199499 FZUS53 KAPX 210239 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1039 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-211045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Ignace, MI
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location: 45.88, -84.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 210458
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1258 am edt Tue may 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1015 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
high pressure is building into the region this evening. The
diurnal clouds are done, with only some cirrus from the
thunderstorms MCS in mo blowing off into the region. Pressure
gradient is relaxing and winds are diminishing. However, there is
one concern for the night, will temperatures drop to allow frost?
so far the dewpoints have been falling off to the mid 30s. The
low temperatures, upstream where the air mass is originating
from were in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Am a bit concerned that
the 925 mb winds are still a bit up, and may stay that way to
allow for some minimal mixing with the gradient wind. This could
keep us from dropping much lower than the upper 30s. However,
will let the forecast age, as the Sun set just a little bit ago
and the temperatures don't have that far to go. (5 to 8 degrees
f).

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Frost producing temperatures tonight...

high impact weather potential: frost expected tonight.

Pattern synopsis: rather progressive northern CONUS pattern out
there early this afternoon, with shortwave trough exiting off to our
east as sharp mid-level ridge axis builds into the upper mississippi
valley. Low clouds and drizzle associated with the former slowly on
there way out as aggressive drying begins to spread into northern
michigan. Overhead airmass is most definitely a chilly one, as
evident by freezing levels that are not too far off the deck and
surface temperatures struggling up into the 40s and 50s... With gusty
northwest winds making it feel even colder yet.

Progressive pattern continues right through tonight, with upstream
ridge axis further sharpening as it builds into the western great
lakes. Attendant elongated canadian originated surface high builds
directly overhead, continuing the clearing trend and setting us up
for more unseasonably cold conditions.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature trends and frost
potential.

Details: expect skies to continue to clear as that high settles
right overhead this evening. That alone sets the stage for an
aggressive nocturnal temperature response. Overnight lows last night
across the arrowhead of minnesota and southwest ontario dipped into
the upper 20s and lower 30s... Indicative of just how chilly this
airmass is. However, like previous forecaster mentioned, winds off
the deck remain borderline for full decoupling from the surface to
be realized, this despite overhead high pressure. Would think a bit
extra mixing would prevent temperatures from reaching some of the
colder readings seen in the statistical guidance. Still gotta
believe widespread lower to middle 30s will be realized across a
good portion of northern lower michigan... More than cold enough to
develop frost. Midnight forecaster had it set up nicely, already
issuing frost advisories for most of northern lower michigan. Those
will not be changed.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Warmer temperatures...

high impact weather potential... None.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops Wednesday.

Tuesday into Tuesday evening... High pressure over the area during
the day will slide off to the east Tuesday evening. This will lead
to mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the
lower and mid 60s.

Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday... An upper level trough moving
through the northern plains northern mississippi valley will lead to
downstream isentropic ascent warm advection. This will increase rain
shower chances from southwest to northeast from late Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon. Lows in the lower and mid 40s. Highs
ranging from the mid and upper 50s across eastern upper to the 60s
across much of northern lower.

Wednesday night into Thursday... Perhaps a few leftover showers from
the departing trough, otherwise building upper level heights should
decrease rain chances. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Warmer
daytime temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid
70s.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Near to slightly above normal temperatures...

high impact weather potential: none expected.

Troughing along the west coast and ridging in the southeastern
states leads to nearly zonal flow aloft across the northern great
lakes. Disturbances periodically moving through the flow will bring
chances for showers Friday into early Saturday and again Monday.

Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal for a change.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1258 am edt Tue may 21 2019
high pressure overhead will gradually lift off to the NE tonight,
while a strong storm system lifts into the central plains, then near
the mn ia sd border tonight. Fairly clear skies will see an increase
in higher level clouds today, and especially through tonight, as a
band of light rain showers works into the tvc mbl airports late
tonight. No expecting any MVFR with this rain for the TAF period.

There is likely going to be some llws to deal with, as light
northerly winds veer easterly today and increase substantially just
above the sfc for tonight.

Marine
Issued at 338 pm edt Mon may 20 2019
gusty northwest winds will subside tonight as high pressure builds
overhead, ending the small craft advisory conditions. Light winds
continue Tuesday, with winds gradually increasing out of the east
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional headlines are expected by
Wednesday on at least a few nearshore waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for miz016>018-
020>035-099.

Lh... None.

Lm... Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for lmz346.

Ls... None.

Update... Jl
near term... mb
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Smd
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45175 5 mi41 min W 9.7 G 9.7 45°F 44°F1 ft1021 hPa37°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 7 mi66 min W 6 G 8.9 44°F 45°F1021.6 hPa
SRLM4 32 mi90 min W 13 42°F 37°F35°F
45022 38 mi40 min N 1.9 G 1.9 38°F 38°F1 ft1022.3 hPa37°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 39 mi66 min WNW 6 G 8 43°F1020.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 39 mi66 min NW 5.1 G 7 40°F 42°F1019.7 hPa34°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 41 mi80 min W 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 1020.7 hPa
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 42 mi66 min W 11 G 14 41°F 1020 hPa25°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 44 mi60 min WNW 8.9 G 15 41°F 44°F1019 hPa (+0.9)37°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 47 mi66 min W 2.9 G 5.1 39°F 41°F1019.9 hPa35°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi60 min W 7 G 8 40°F 39°F1018.9 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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N5
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NE17
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E6
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NE12
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NE15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI4 mi65 minW 810.00 miFair41°F34°F75%1021 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI19 mi65 minW 610.00 miFair40°F34°F81%1020.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi66 minWNW 310.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N10
G14
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N9
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NW6NW6NW6NW7W6W9
1 day agoNE10
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NE9
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G25
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E8E5N5N6
2 days agoNE7NE6E8E11
G17
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G14
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G25
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G21
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NE7E11NE13
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G14
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G18
NE12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.