Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 4:10 AM   Moonset 6:10 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 060922 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 522 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm occluded front will finish crossing the region late this morning. A secondary cold front will approach the area late this afternoon and cross the region this evening. High pressure will then build over the area from the northwest later tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will slide south of the area Wednesday and again on Thursday. A new low may develop to our south on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
520 AM Update: No sig chgs to the current Now to Near term fcst, with latest sim HRRR radar ref showing some additional shwr activity entering W Cntrl ptns of the FA later this Morn from NW ME before dissipating by Midday. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into late Morn from latest daybreak sfc obs, with little net chg from the prev temp fcst for these hrs.
Temps will begin rising more rapidly later this Morn into erly Aftn with the arrival of more sunshine.

Prev Disc: Fast chgs in wx conditions is on tap for the Rgn tdy. Patchy fog/dz and most shwr activity ovr our FA will move E by late this Morn as a weak warm occlusion moves E of the FA to ovr the Can Maritimes. After a pd of ptly sunny skies, the tmg of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay now appears to be back around 00z this Eve ovr Nrn ptns of the FA just after max diurnal htg, so additional sct shwrs and possible isold tstms are again possible late this aftn into very early Eve msly across far Nrn areas. The warmest air in the llvls ahead of the secondary cold front will arrive durg the Aftn allowing temps to reach highs well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns.

Any remaining isold shwrs will move E of the by mid Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt looking to be fair, breezy and cooler behind a secondary cold front.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be situated to our north on Tuesday while high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will ridge southeast across our area. A bit of moisture and mid level instability will bring a partly cloudy sky on Tuesday across the north with a cumulus field. Southern areas will be mostly sunny.
Southern areas will continue to be warm on Tuesday with inland highs in the upper 60s. The north will cool down just a bit, but continue to be seasonably mild with highs in the low 60s. The cumulus will dissipate Tuesday evening giving way to a mostly clear night Tuesday night as weak surface high pressure crests over the area.

A shallow and weak low will approach from the Eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday and may spread some light rain across southern areas Wednesday afternoon. A weak corridor of high pressure and some blocking will likely keep the north dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Inland highs on Wednesday will be near 60.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A bit of light rain or showers may linger over southern areas Wednesday night. Another week low will approach on Thursday along a flat east to west flow. This may spread some more rain into southern parts of the area late Thursday into Thursday night while weak high pressure and blocking keep the north dry. Some light rain across the south and dry weather over the north may continue into Friday.

Our focus later Friday into the start of the weekend will be on an amplifying trough diving through the Ohio Valley and developing a new low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The low will track northeast from the Mid-Atlantic coast likely bringing some rain to southern and possibly bringing some rain to the north. The GFS has been showing a strong trough diving into the Plains on Saturday which acts to pivot the Mid-Atlantic low north bringing a soaking rain to the entire area. The ECMWF, however, has the Plains trough fractured leaving a piece up in northern Canada with a weaker trough diving into the Plains. Without a strong Plains trough to pivot the Mid- Atlantic low north, the ECMWF slides the Mid-Atlantic low south and out to sea only brushing southern areas with a chance for some light rain. An upper trough remaining over the area may keep our weather unsettled Sunday into early next week with chances for showers.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: This Morn...all TAF sites IFR clgs in isold-sct shwrs, patchy dz, and fog erly this Morn, becmg MVFR clgs late this Morn.

This Aftn...low VFR to VFR clgs. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in shwrs late KFVE-KPQI. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg NW late in the day.

Tngt - all TAF sites VFR. Lgt NW winds.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. Light NW wind.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light NW wind becoming light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR north. VFR becoming MVFR south. Light NE wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR to IFR south. VFR north. Light NE wind.

Thursday...VFR north. MVFR south. Light E wind.

Thursday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Friday...VFR. Light E wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr this ptn of the fcst. Patchy fog should end by Aftn. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 3 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to remain below SCA through the week. Some humid air over the waters may produce some patchy fog or light mist Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Otherwise, visibility should be good.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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