Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
De Tour Village, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:29PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:25 AM EDT (04:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 9:41PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ322 510 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
.strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Marys river point iroquois to e. Potagannissing bay... At 510 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds up to 33 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located near munuscong...or 7 nm west of neebish island...moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Sugar island...neebish island and munuscong. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4644 8414 4637 8414 4633 8411 4627 8412 4620 8408 4617 8434 4619 8436 4624 8436 4628 8430 4632 8430 4643 8436 4637 8450 4640 8452 4651 8411
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ322 Expires:201709222145;;780162 FZUS73 KAPX 222110 MWSAPX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 510 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 LSZ322-222145-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near De Tour Village, MI
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location: 46.02, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250345
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1145 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Update
Issued at 1010 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017
persistent highly amplified trough ridge pattern of course
persists across the conus... Although 592dm center of the upper
ridge has moved off to the east over new york pennsylvania with
500mb heights easing just a bit in the last 12 hours. Active
weather remains through the center of the CONUS into the upper
midwest... Along the tight thermal gradient. Lots of dry air clear
skies across the state... But there is some better moisture inching
it's way into the the lower lakes region from the S sw.

Rest of tonight... Pretty much a carbon copy of last night. Surface
dewpoints were are running a few degrees lower through the day and
this evening compared to yesterday which could translate to
slightly cooler overnight lows. But otherwise, quit and mild
weather persists.

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Unseasonably warm weather set to continue for a few more days...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... And the story remains the same, with an
unbelievably warm, record setting airmass centered across the
northern lakes. High temperature records once again falling (now day
4 for some!) as readings push well up into the 80s and even a few
lower 90s. Sun-filled skies and increasingly dry soil conditions
only helping the warming cause. One can thank a remarkably
persistent and amplified noam mid and upper level flow regime for
such anomalous conditions, featuring one amped-up eastern great
lakes centered ridge downstream of an equally impressive
intermountain west centered trough (no doubt at least partially held
in place by hurricane maria spinning well east of florida). Above
pattern set to become a bit more progressive and bit less amplified
in the coming days as lead piece of western energy pinwheels
northeast into the northern plains, forcing a slow retreat and a
notable decrease in the magnitude of that eastern ridge. Eventually,
this will bring much cooler weather and more seasonable weather to
our area. Still plenty of heat and dry conditions to be had before
this big change, and likely looking at more daily high temperature
records to be reached again on Monday.

Forecast concerns once again center solely on temperature trends, or
more precisely, just how warm to go with high temperatures on Monday.

Details: conditions look to remain dry tonight and Monday as deep
layer subsidence continues and weak low mid level cap remains. May
get a few more diurnally-driven CU and a bit more passing high
clouds on Monday, but overall mostly clear sunny skies are expected.

Similar story tonight as the last several, with warm and muggy
conditions (lows only bottom out in the lower and middle 60s) and
some patchy shallow field fog.

And, just like the last several days, expect a quick diurnal
temperature response Monday under mostly sunny skies. Off the deck
thermal profiles continue to cool slightly, so expect readings to
fall just a bit short of those experienced today. Still, expected
highs in the middle 80s to near 90 will once again challenge records
for the date, and very likely at least a few records will be tied or
broken. Current high temperature records for september 25th are as
follows:
record (year)
glr 76 (1958)
tvc 89 (1908)
apn 85 (1935)
anj 83 (1908)
htl 91 (1920)
pln 80 (2007)

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Warm stretch comes to an end; small chance of showers...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong upper level ridge begins to break
down and push off to the east Monday night into Tuesday as energy
associated with western trough lifts into ontario. A surface low
will ride northeast along a strong cold front, with the front
sweeping across northern michigan Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. This will end the ongoing warm spell with highs on
Wednesday as much as 20 degrees cooler than Tuesday, despite being
right around normal.

Primary forecast concerns... Continued near-record breaking warmth on
Tuesday, followed by small chance for some much needed rain late
Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Tuesday will be the sixth and final day of this late season warm
stretch as anomalous heights and temperatures aloft gradually break
down heading into midweek. Highs will still be well above normal,
but a few degrees cooler than Monday with mid 70s to around 80 for
eastern upper and low to mid 80s for northern lower. Could be a
record or two in jeopardy, but not as likely as in recent days.

Tuesday's record highs:
anj: 84(1908)
glr: 80(1999)
htl: 89(1920)
tvc: 88(1908)
apn: 88(1920)
pln: 83(1973)
approaching cold front late Tuesday will have a decent moisture feed
with a ribbon of pwats in excess of 1.5 inches, but forecast
soundings show this moisture being stripped out pretty rapidly from
top down behind the front. Given the expected nocturnal passage of
the front, there will be diminishing instability for the front to
work with, with mucapes a few hundred j kg at best. Finally, fgen
lift along the front not progged to be very strong. Ingredients are
thus not looking very favorable for much of northern michigan to see
appreciable rainfall from this event. Eastern upper and tip of the
mitt are looking to see the better chance, though shower coverage
will be somewhat spotty and unlikely to produce more than a couple
tenths of an inch at best. Wouldn't rule out a few rumbles of
thunder Tuesday night, but limited instability suggests nothing
intense. Lingering shower chances diminish rapidly after daybreak
Wednesday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017
the Tuesday-Wednesday disturbance should be clear the area by the
start of the extended period... Leaving a mainly dry Thursday.

However... A clipper will roll through the great lakes Friday,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air and another shot at
precipitation. I think the story to watch will be the significantly
colder air and if it will lock in long enough to initiate some lake
processes for Friday and Saturday. My gut feeling thinks, yes.

Temperatures will moderate on Sunday with dry conditions returning
to round out the weekend.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017
overallVFR weather continues... Tonight through Monday. Similar to
last night... Some patchy fog will be found out there... Particularly
at pln and mbl... With some MVFR vsby reductions. But impacts will
be minor.

Marine
Issued at 312 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017
weak pressure gradient and very stable over-water thermal
profiles will keep both winds and waves below headline criteria
through Tuesday. Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue as
well.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... mb
short term... Mk
long term... Kb
aviation... Ba
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 9 mi38 min SSW 4.1 G 6 73°F 1015.8 hPa68°F
SRLM4 27 mi56 min SW 8.9 71°F 69°F66°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 29 mi38 min SSE 1 G 1.9 1015.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 31 mi38 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.2 hPa65°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI 44 mi38 min ENE 1 G 1.9 67°F 1016.2 hPa59°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI 47 mi38 min E 1 G 1.9 69°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Drummond Island Airport, MI1 mi32 minSSE 410.00 miFair72°F63°F74%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from DRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S3SW4S4S3SE3SE4SE3CalmSE5S5S6S6
1 day agoCalmS6CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW4SW5SW7SW6SW6S7S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5S8S6S4SE6S5SE5S3N4NE3CalmCalmSE3S5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.