Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 1:56 AM   Moonset 10:14 AM

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LSZ322 /o.exp.kapx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240423t1915z/ 312 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 315 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . St. Marys river point iroquois to e. Potagannissing bay - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
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lat - .lon 4652 8417 4653 8413 4650 8411 4644 8414 4637 8414 4633 8411 4629 8412 4628 8424 4635 8425 4645 8431 4649 8428 4650 8425 4654 8420 time - .mot - .loc 1912z 281deg 18kt 4639 8377 4632 8443

LSZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 301059 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 659 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances late tonight/Wednesday morning.

- Drier and breezier Wednesday pm, with potential fire wx concerns.

- Rain returns late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Synopsis/pattern: Occluded 1007mb surface low is near MQT, with a triple point low near GLR. This system will weaken as it moves ne. High pressure briefly noses in from the se late today, up until another upstream low heads toward Lk Superior tonight.

Forecast: A few showers are present in ne lower MI, and in parts of upper MI. These will move out of ne lower over the next few hours, but will linger longer in eastern upper MI. Cloud cover is abundant upstream in WI and upper MI; perhaps places near/south of M-72 will be partly sunny at times this morning, but for the most part mostly cloudy skies prevail. A convergence zone will up over the east half of upper MI today, with chilly Lk Superior pushing this boundary slowly southward with time.
Though surface heating will be limited, there still may be just enough instability to crank up a few showers this afternoon in eastern upper MI. Small pops have been added up that way. Max temps from the lower 50s north to mid 60s southeast.

Tonight, warm advection wing of better mid-level theta-e advection develops quickly eastward into northern MI. The evening/early overnight look dry, but models have been more aggressive in allowing to develop overnight, ahead of the incoming elongated low pressure. Have expanded pops late overnight across most of northern MI. QPF looks mainly light, 0.10" or less, highest near Lake MI in both peninsulas. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Oddly elongated upper low/short wave will be skirting the far northern portions of our county warning area early on Wednesday. Low pressure system/associated weak frontal boundary will move through the area as well midday. Just enough forcing will result in rain showers with generally light accumulations. Energy embedded within southwest flow in addition to warm moist advection due to lifting warm front will contribute to an increase in rain chances Thursday and Thursday night. Cold front associated with a potent wave across the N Plains and Upper Midwest will move into the region on Friday with continued showers possible along that boundary. Another quick hitting disturbance this weekend will produce the chance for more minor showery activity.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain showers expected early on Wednesday due to a passing disturbance aloft, but quick clearing and drying expected by the afternoon hours for most of the region (eastern upper may have some lingering showers). PBL heights expected to increase near 5kft across portions of the area (especially southeastern). Thus, increasingly dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the region during the afternoon hours. At this time, do not think it'll be a major fire wx concern unless conditions are drier and windier than currently expected (and really might not be broad enough spatially, who knows), but worth fine tuning in the next two fcst cycles.

Warm moist advection (in addition to some embedded energy aloft)
will produce the opportunity for rain showers Thursday and Thursday night across the area. Weak sfc front will move through on Friday focusing additional shower development. Might be some low end, meager instability thus there could be a few rumbles of thunder during this time (instability values continue to be meager within the ensemble envelope (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) as well with <10% probs for 500j/kg of CAPE), but progged soundings are really not all that impressive. Ensembles suggest best chance for wetting rains (say 0.5" or so) will be across the western shores of northern lower into eastern upper due to closer proximity to the lift and initial tongue of moisture. Clearing can be expected later Friday, then mild temperatures continuing into the weekend with the chance for a few more rain showers due to a passing disturbance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
IFR part this morning APN/CIU/PLN.

Weakening low pressure is departing across Superior. Low clouds and fog will bring poor conditions early this morning CIU/APN/PLN, before some improvement by late morning. Another chance for showers arrives late tonight, along with increasing clouds.

Westerly breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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