Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Finlayson, MN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 9:04PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 11:54 AM CDT (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 Expires:201906102000;;289230 Fzus73 Kdlh 101931 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 231 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 10 2019 Lsz121-143>148-162-102000- 231 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 10 2019
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Oak point to saxon harbor wi... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 231 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots, small hail, and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from 13 nm northeast of raspberry island lighthouse, to 6 nm south of larsmont, moving southeast at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island lighthouse, bayfield peninsula sea caves, brule point, sand island, herbster, oak point, madeline island, and red cliff. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4657 9097 4667 9094 4670 9089 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4670 9167 4690 9185 4724 9062 4702 9020 4686 9031 4661 9065 4664 9071 4657 9090
LSZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Finlayson, MN
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location: 46.14, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 191150
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
650 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 650 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 345 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
a weak surface high was over the northland this morning along with
a shortwave trough aloft. A few light showers continued over
southern saint louis county as of 0840z, otherwise dry conditions
were occurring with areas of fog. The fog was dense in spots,
with kbrd, kait, khzx, and kasx all reporting a visibility around
a quarter mile at times. The fog will lift later this morning,
mainly between 730 am and 9 am. Steep lapse rates are expected
today per forecast soundings and the low levels will be fairly
dry. The question today will be if showers form and how widespread
will they be. Given the weak shortwave aloft and steep lapse
rates, we added a mention of afternoon showers over portions of
northern minnesota. We also increased cloud cover over northern
areas. Highs are expected to be in the seventies for most areas
but light off lake winds will keep lakeside areas cooler.

The showers this afternoon will diminish this evening with most
areas remaining dry through the night. Lows will be from 40 to 50,
warmest over our far southern and western areas.

An upper low will be moving toward the northern plains Thursday
with a surface low ahead of the upper low moving into the dakotas.

The northland will be between drier high pressure off to the
east northeast and the approaching low to the west. The model
trends is for a slower progression of the showers and we made some
adjustments there and keep our eastern third dry through the day.

Highest chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will be over
our west southwest zones. Highs will be in the lower to middle
seventies but off lake winds will again keep lakeside areas
cooler.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 345 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
an upper low intensifies and moves over the rockies on Thursday and
Thursday night, before sliding east to over the northern canadian
plains by Friday night. Thursday night, we should have a
continuation of the warm air advection wing frontogenesis band that
slides across the area overnight, then weakens and falls apart of
the forecast area on Friday as a fresh wave of warm air advection
redevelops to our southwest and a fairly potent shortwave ejects out
of the upper low to move across the area Friday night and Saturday,
bringing another band of showers and thunderstorms. This period of
generally cloudy and wet weather from Thursday night through
Saturday should keep temperatures on the cool side, with highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s.

Beyond Saturday confidence in this forecast diminishes as the models
diverge in handling of the upper low and resulting sensible weather.

The GFS spins a separate upper low off of the main upper low and
dives it south into the four corners region, while the ecwmf and
canadian keep the whole more phased together, a solution that
appears to be supported by the naefs ensemble, and have favored
the more blended approach. This may give us a period of drier but
cooler weather for at least part of Sunday, but afternoon and
evening diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear likely.

Have left some chance pops going through the entire day though due
to the uncertainties in this time range. Temperatures remain cool
through the weekend, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Precipitation chances continue through at least Monday with the
upper low in the vicinity. We may get some drier periods and
warmer weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, as we appear to get a
broad ridge to build over the area. Highs should creep back
towards the 80s by mid week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 650 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
lifr ifr fog affecting kbrd and khib as of issuance time this
morning, which should clear toVFR by 14z this morning. Showers
should develop during the afternoon hours, mainly affecting khib
and have included a vcsh group for several hours, but have kept
conditionsVFR. Fog development is possible once again tonight,
potentially with ifr visibilities once again. Winds generally less
than 10kts, though kdlh may be gusting up to 15kts.

Marine
Issued at 345 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
high pressure is expected to slide across the area today and
tonight, keeping winds light and waves less than 2 feet. An
approaching low pressure system will cause winds to become northeast
and gradually increase through the day on Thursday, diminishing
slightly overnight before increasing again on Friday. However, they
are not currently expected to get strong enough to produce waves of
over 3 feet.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 69 45 67 48 20 0 40 50
inl 77 47 76 50 0 0 30 30
brd 75 50 73 55 10 10 70 70
hyr 76 45 76 52 10 0 20 50
asx 69 41 69 48 0 0 10 50

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Le
short term... Melde
long term... Le
aviation... Le
marine... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 65 mi61 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 60°F 55°F1012.5 hPa53°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hinckley Field of Dreams Airport, MN10 mi60 minENE 410.00 miFair68°F53°F60%1011.5 hPa
Mora Municipal Airport, MN22 mi60 minE 410.00 miFair64°F51°F64%1011.8 hPa
Moose Lake Carlton County Airport, MN22 mi76 minE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F50°F56%1011.5 hPa

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Last 24hrNW4W4N4CalmNW3SE4CalmN5W4N4CalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmN3NE4E3E6E3E8
1 day agoS5SW9W8W7
G14
W6W7W5NW6W5NW3CalmCalmW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4
2 days agoCalmE8E6SE5E4E3E4E8NE3NE4NE5CalmCalmE4E4CalmCalmCalmSE3S4S6SW5S5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.