Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 4:41PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:15 AM CST (10:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 816 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 24 2017
.strong Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Sand island to bayfield wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 816 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms...capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of larsmont...to 8 nm southeast of superior harbor...moving northeast at 50 knots. Locations impacted include... Raspberry island...split rock bay...raspberry island lighthouse... Castle danger...sand island...sugar loaf cove...tofte safe harbor... Twin points safe harbor...tofte...mouth of the little marais river... Beaver bay...mouth of the cross river...port wing safe harbor...brule point...herbster...apostle islands sea caves...larsmont...split rock lighthouse...red cliff...and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4689 9196 4715 9149 4754 9094 4762 9080 4687 9066 4682 9086 4688 9080 4693 9086 4691 9096 4684 9110 4682 9118 4683 9121 4674 9150 4666 9192
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 Expires:201709250215;;885660 FZUS73 KDLH 250116 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 816 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017 LSZ141>147-162-250215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 210915
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
315 am cst Tue nov 21 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 330 am cst Tue nov 21 2017
the short term concerns are wind, extent of cloud cover and
temperature trends today.

Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the front have been gusting
to 30 to 35 kts over much of central mn CWA during the early
morning. Stronger CAA and pressure gradient are increasing a bit
and we should see winds increase from west to south this morning.

Appears we may see a few sustained 30 mph with gusts mainly 40
mph... Perhaps a stray 45 mph into the southwest mainly through
the morning. Wind advisory looks marginal at best but will let it
ride at least for the morning.

Clouds are dropping south and should encompass at least the
northern 2 3rds of the area through much of the morning. Models
continue to trend clearing quickly from the west through the
morning however, as the upper trough swings quickly east. Did
mention some flurries into the northern third of the are as well,
mainly this morning. Temperatures will continue to slide through
at least midmorning before becoming steady, maybe rebounding a
degree or two if clearing Sun appear for most of the afternoon.

Clear overnight with light winds as high pressure moves through.

This should provide temperatures in the teens.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 330 am cst Tue nov 21 2017
the extended still looks to be dominated by a relatively fast and
progressive flow with no significant winter systems and pretty
strong temperature swings centered around frontal passages. Model
agreement is still good through about 4 days, which gets us through
Friday, but diverge thereafter. Only changes made to the
blended forecast were to increase winds Friday and Friday night in
the wake of what will be our next cold front.

Strong flow at the crest of of a ridge over the southern canadian
rockies looks to result in the development of a surface low over
southern alberta tonight. That surface low will ride a baroclinic
zone southeast toward southern mn by Wednesday evening. Strong
isentropic ascent and warm frontal forcing looks to result in a
shield of light snow developing over northeast nd Wednesday morning
that will track east toward central and northern mn Wednesday
afternoon and northern wi Wednesday evening. Antecedent environment
ahead of this forcing still looks really dry and much of the time we
have forcing for precip will be spent moistening the atmosphere,
which should really limit precip potential. NAM shows a bit better
low level moistening down toward the twin cities, which is why it
drags precip farther south than the GFS and ecmwf. Sided toward the
gefs SREF probs for precip though, which keeps most of it north of
the mpx area. Even so, we are talking about a couple of hundredths
of an inch of qpf, so snow amounts, if we see any look minimal.

For thanksgiving, it look ideal for this region, with light winds,
mostly sunny skies and highs around 40 as weak surface ridging moves
across the area.

The next system heading our direction will be moving out on to the
canadian prairies Thursday night, with a deepening sfc low going
across southern canada during the day Friday. This will draw another
warm sector up toward us for Friday, though the peak of the warm
nose looks to move across the mpx area Friday morning. Still, model
spread is pretty strong that even in the twin cities, we'll crack 50
for the first time this month. The superblend has finally caught on
to these warmer temps, so no changes were needed to it. Like today
though, dense cloud cover could sink the twin cities attempt at 50.

During the afternoon, a strong westerly jet streak looks to come
across sd. Gfs ECMWF continue to generate an area of precip with the
lift on the nose of this jet streak, so increased pops into the high
chance low likely category. Precip type will not be an issue with
this precip though as it will plenty warm enough to keep it all rain.

Friday night into Saturday, we get into another post frontal
environment similar to what we have tonight into this morning. Once
again, we should see borderline wind advisory winds behind the front
going into Saturday morning, with strong CAA resulting in falling
temperatures and highs Saturday that are about 20 degrees colder
than Friday.

Like we have been experiencing the last week, we will have two cold
days Saturday and Sunday, but we will head the other direction
by Monday with highs surging back into the 40s ahead of our next
system, which looks to be due in Monday night Tuesday. This system
looks similar to what passed to our north last night and will pass
to our north Friday. The only difference is that this time around
the ECMWF gfs have the low going across northern mn as opposed to
southern canada. The impact of that is it would bring the heavier
precip closer to us. However, this pattern we have been in has only
shown much forecast reliability out about 4 days. So don't bank on
this system being reliably forecast until we get to Friday or
Saturday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1106 pm cst Mon nov 20 2017
vfr conditions early on, but forecast soundings show MVFR with
matches up with the stratus moving down from the north so have
included MVFR clouds in the TAF for the northern sites this
morning. Also, strong northwest winds will develop behind the
cold front as is passes through the region tonight. Could see 30kt
gusts Tuesday morning, which should decrease throughout the day
and taper off after sunset.

Kmsp...

vfr conditions throughout with northwest winds developing around
07-08z with gust increasing thereafter. There is a chance for a
few MVFR clouds this morning, but for now did not include them in
the TAF at kmsp.

Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR. Winds SW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5 kts.

Fri... MainlyVFR. Chance MVFR -shra late. Winds SW 10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Wind advisory until 2 pm cst this afternoon for mnz064-065-067-
073>075-082>084-091>093.

Wind advisory until noon cst today for mnz041-047-048-054>057.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Mpg
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi46 min W 21 G 26 29°F 1000 hPa15°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi37 minNW 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy27°F15°F64%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from JMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE3S7S6S9SW8SW8SW5SW6SW7SW7W6W6W11
G15
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1 day agoW4W4W4SW4W3SW4W4SW4SW7S7S7S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4NW6NW6N8
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NW8NW11NW9
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NW6NW9
G15
NW8NW7W4W4W5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.