Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:35PM Thursday March 23, 2017 3:16 AM CDT (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:46AMMoonset 1:42PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 203 Am Cst Tue Mar 7 2017
.an area of Thunderstorms over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 201 am cst...doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to around 30 knots...small hail...and frequent cloud to water lightning. This area of Thunderstorms was located 10 nm west of port wing safe harbor...moving north at 40 knots. Locations impacted include... Castle danger...brule point...and twin points safe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect wind gusts up to 33 knots...locally higher waves...cloud to water lightning strikes...small hail...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4704 9169 4716 9147 4720 9133 4673 9154 4672 9174
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ145 Expires:201703070830;;132282 FZUS73 KDLH 070803 MWSDLH MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 203 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017 LSZ143>145-162-070830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 230411
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities/chanhassen mn
1111 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 326 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
a band of mid level clouds moved eastward across minnesota this
morning and will enter western wisconsin later this evening. Radar
returns showed precipitation across western mn, but metars showed
only light precip and nothing measurable, so transitioned light
pops to flurries and sprinkles overnight.

On Thursday a large upper level low that is currently moving onshore
the california coast will move across the 4-corners and become
cutoff from the main flow. Low level theta_e advection will lead to
saturation in the lowest 700 mb of the atmosphere and forecast
soundings show enough lift to produce some light rain. Have pops
increasing throughout the day on Thursday, but again little
accumulation.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 326 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
the main focus of the long term period is the system set to impact
our area from tomorrow through the weekend. By tomorrow evening,
the cut-off upper low will be positioned over the four corners
region with surface cyclogenesis ongoing across eastern colorado.

The warm front will be draped across southern mn/northern ia and
into central wi tomorrow night and will be the focus for the
rainfall development given the strong low level convergence.

The latest trends with the forecast guidance indicates the heaviest
rain potential across far southern mn and northern ia. The outlier
is the canadian model which is much farther north. The latest ecmwf
run shifted its QPF southward this morning, more in line with the
gfs. In addition, the GEFS members indicate less than a 50% chance
of seeing an inch of rain north of mankato. With high pressure
pushing into the great lakes from the north during this period, tend
to lean toward the southern consensus.

This low will slowly move east across northern oklahoma into
southern missouri before finally turning northeast toward chicago by
Sunday. With that, we could see light precip lift back into the
region during this period.

Beyond that, the pattern looks to remain active with continued waves
moving through the center of the country. Possibly additional
strong cut off lows moving through late in the period. In terms of
temperatures, we look to run near to slightly above normal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1111 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
two concerns this TAF period are timing arrival of low CIGS and
shower/thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon. Downstream obs
lead to some hesitation with bringing in lower CIGS too fast
Thursday, as MVFR CIGS (015-020) are still way down in central ok.

Models have been way to fast in moistening the low levels
recently, so continued to go a bit slower than guidance with
bringing in low cigs. Lower cig chances look to increase
significantly Thursday night as a warm front pushes up to the
mn/ia border. We could certainly be lower with CIGS than we
currently have at the end of the period, but at 20+ hours out,
was more conservative with how low to take things than what the
lamp guidance has. As for precip potential, the NAM shows
1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE coming up Thursday, but ridging aloft
looks to create dry mid-levels and a capping inversion to keep
tsra activity in check. Looks like light rain should expand across
the area Thursday afternoon as the LLJ noses into southern mn.

Again, we may be too bullish with precip mention at this point
this TAF period given the dry mid-level air.

Kmsp... Very dry low level air remains in place and will be tough
to displace, so continue to run later/higher with CIGS than lamp
guidance. Also concerned we won't see much in the way of rain
until Friday morning when deep moisture finally arrives.

/outlook for kmsp/
fri... MVFR/ifr with -ra likely. Wind nne 5-10 kts.

Sat... Chc MVFR -ra. Wind ene 10 kts.

Sun... Chc MVFR. Wind ene 5 kts.

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Spd
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi46 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 23°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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G24
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora, Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi20 minSE 610.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1024 hPa

Wind History from JMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE6SE6S10SE6
G14
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S7S8S8S6S6SE6SE4SE7SE6SE6S5
1 day agoNW13
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N7N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW3NW7CalmN5N6CalmN3N3NE5CalmCalmN4NW6N12
G18
NW7N6NW3W5NW7W5W5W7
G15
NW8NW11
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.