Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:35PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:39 AM CST (09:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 348 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.a Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 348 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This Thunderstorm was located near duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 65 knots. Locations impacted include... French river, herbster, and barkers island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...lightning strikes...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4691 9192 4710 9132 4683 9115 4682 9119 4683 9121 4681 9127 4671 9205 4681 9210
LSZ145 Expires:201810032115;;190874 FZUS73 KDLH 032048 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 348 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2018 LSZ143>146-162-032115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 130458
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1058 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018

Update For 06z aviation discussion below

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 350 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018
the shortwave that moved through just to our south of the last
12-24 hours was evident across southeastern wi on afternoon
satellite imagery, heading eastward toward the great lakes. In the
wake of the surface trough, widespread stratus and fog extended
all the way from the western great lakes through the eastern
dakotas. Little movement in the clouds and fog has occurred today,
which is expected to continue to be the story until a cold front
arrives tomorrow afternoon evening.

Given the sub 925mb moisture in place and very little mixing due
to light winds, the stagnant airmass should once again produce
freezing fog overnight. Much of western and southern mn looks to
be at highest risk for potential dense fog overnight and a dense
fog advisory has been issued. Last night, much of eastern south
dakota observed dense fog, just west of the extension of the
denser cloud shield associated with the shortwave. There is a
potential for a repeat of this tonight, except shifted into
western southern mn as the system continues east. Still, fog will
continue across the entire area, meaning freezing fog overnight
could lead to click spots on area roadways by tomorrow morning.

Another shortwave will move east across alberta and saskatchewan
tonight, with a surface cold front extending south into the
dakotas. Convergence along the front will initially lead to light
snow across western mn tomorrow morning, with less than an inch
expected. Pops decrease as the front works eastward due to lack of
moisture. The front will reach western mn prior to noon tomorrow,
and work eastward, reaching the eau claire area shortly after
dark. With a drier air mass to follow, do expect skies to finally
begin to clear behind the front.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 350 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018
the pattern will remain rather benign through next week, but there
are still forecast challenges to contend with - mostly due to the
potential for fog and low clouds, and their impact on
temperatures. By Friday, a surface ridge axis will be located from
eastern nebraska northeastward across southern minnesota and iowa
into central and southern wisconsin. Generally light surface flow
and stronger southwest flow aloft could strengthen an inversion as
waa increases aloft. This would not bode well for the prospects of
full sun. However, forecast soundings do indicate considerable
dry air just above the near surface inversion. It may be easier
to scatter out any low clouds that continue into Friday due to
their limited depth. Temperatures should climb above freezing,
especially if as much sunshine the forecast calls for
materializes.

The ridge axis will remain mostly in place but perhaps take on a
more southwest-northeast tilt from mo into wi. Calm winds and
ample low level moisture from daytime snow melt, in addition to
the lingering snowpack should result in widespread fog across
southern mn into western wi. Sky cover could be too optimistic
Saturday as the fog from Friday night may lift into stratus given
the continued inversion. Otherwise, mild temperatures should
continue Saturday and Sunday.

A cold front will pass through Sunday with a shot of cooler air
for Monday. That won't last too long with another ridge axis
shifting eastward Monday, and return flow resuming Tuesday and
Wednesday. Depending on how much snow we can lose between now and
then will dictate how warm we get next week. Thicknesses climb
into the 550s and 850 mb temps increase to +5 to +7c. Should be
able to reach the 40s area wide in that type of airmass.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1058 pm cst Wed dec 12 2018
expect visibilities to continue degrading overnight as fog
worsens, with lifr ceiling and lifr vlifr visibilities becoming
common. Expect these conditions to persist until after the
frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Light snow will also be
possible as the front passes, although accumulations are expected
to stay restricted to the northwest (up to one inch near kaxn).

Southeast winds around or under 5 knots will eventually veer to
the northwest as the front passes.

Kmsp...

freezing mist is possible overnight, with ifr conditions until
the front passes late Thursday afternoon.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Winds W 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

Sun...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Dense fog advisory until 8 am cst Thursday for mnz047-048-
054>057-064-065-073>075-082>085-091>093.

Short term... Spd
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Ls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi40 min Calm G 1 31°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.7)26°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi44 minSSW 64.00 miFog/Mist27°F24°F93%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from JMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S4S3S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmE4E3E4E3CalmCalmE3CalmNE3
2 days agoCalmS4SW4SW5SW3SW6SW7SW7S9SW9SW8SW9SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.