Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:34PM Saturday March 23, 2019 10:19 AM CDT (15:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 Expires:201810032115;;190874 Fzus73 Kdlh 032048 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 348 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018 Lsz143>146-162-032115- 348 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 3 2018
.a Thunderstorm over western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Port wing to sand island wi... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 348 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated a Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and frequent cloud to water lightning. This Thunderstorm was located near duluth lift bridge channel, moving east at 65 knots. Locations impacted include... French river, herbster, and barkers island. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 33 knots...locally higher waves...lightning strikes...and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 pm cdt for northwestern wisconsin...and the adjacent waters of lake superior. Lat...lon 4691 9192 4710 9132 4683 9115 4682 9119 4683 9121 4681 9127 4671 9205 4681 9210
LSZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 231120
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
620 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019

Update
Issued at 615 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019
updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 330 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019
surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure centered
over northern il, expanding NW into the dakotas and SE into the
gulf coast states. A low pressure system is becoming better
organized over co ks while a cold front stretches over much of
south-central canada. Aloft, a sharp ridge axis is aligned atop
nearly the entire length of the mississippi river with a compact
cutoff low in a similar position as the co ks low while a much
larger low resides over hudson bay.

As the day progresses and through tonight, the surface high will
shift into the southeastern conus. At the same time, the stacked
low over the lee of the rockies will shift eastward across ks,
taking up a position near kansas city by daybreak Sunday morning
then near st. Louis by Sunday evening. The low will become the
main feature in the short term as the cold front to the north
becomes washed out and devoid of moisture as it drops across the
international border tonight then over mn wi on Sunday.

In advance of the low pressure system and northern cold front,
appreciable warm air advection will take place with the ridging
aloft and a more southerly flow taking hold on the backside of the
departing high. Highs will range through the 50s for much of the
coverage area, including upper 50s for the twin cities metro (with
an outside shot at possibly hitting 60). Increasing cloud cover
and continued southerly flow tonight will keep temperatures mild,
with above-freezing temperatures expected south of the i-94
corridor. With the frontal passage Sunday, a bit of cold air
advection will make an impact, particularly as the upper ridge
collapses and h5 heights drop, but it will not be a significant
drop in temps. Highs on Sunday will range 40-50 degrees.

As for precipitation, as alluded to earlier, the low pressure
system over the central CONUS will be the main factor. Light
rain is expected to spread into southwestern mn this evening then
into southern mn overnight through Sunday. Am expecting the precip
to reach no further north than the i-94 corridor, and no
precipitation is expected from the northerly front. Outside of a
small chance of fzra in a small portion of far western mn for a
few hours around sunrise Sunday morning, the precipitation will be
all liquid. Scattered showers will persist through Sunday morning
and gradually diminish Sunday afternoon with any and all
precipitation ended by Sunday evening.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 330 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019
the longer term continues a spring-like trend with temperatures
cool to start, warming toward midweek and cooler end of the week.

The trough which brought the light rain chances across southern
mn exits to the southeast Sunday night with a surge of cooler air
moving in quickly behind along with surface high pressure. This
should clear the sky for most of the CWA for Monday. High
temepratures are expected to remain below normal with lower to
mid 40s common.

Return flow WAA develops ahead of the next western CONUS trough
moving ashore the southwest coast Tuesday. This should bring some
increase in cloud cover and some lower level moisture into the the
west late Monday night into Tuesday. The GFS draws in a weak
short wave aloft to increase lift potential to generate a possible
rain snow mix. Pops remain on the low side for this event. With
some WAA potential, temperatures are expected to warm to 45 to 50
across the cwa.

The deterministic models continue to diverge somewhat on the
handling of the western CONUS trough energy as it lifts out into
the plains later Wednesday Thursday period. They all trend warmer
as heights build out ahead of the trough into Wednesday.

Increasing southerly winds should help draw warmer temperatures
into southern mn then, perhaps our first 60 of the season. Along
with the warmer temperatures, dewpoints are forecast to increase
as well, perhaps the upper 40s to some lower 50s ahead of a cold
front. The GFS and to some extent the ECMWF show some instability
developing to the southwest ahead of the front Wednesday night
into Thursday. Best li's drop off to around minus 4 over the south
int Thursday. This along with the forcing along the front should
be enough to generate at least a few thunderstorms during this
period. The GFS has shown this possibility for the last several
runs. The ECMWF does as well but is faster more progressive with
the leading trough front and lags most of the southwest trough to
the southwest and lingers the rain threat to the far south into
next weekend. We will follow more of a GFS trend for now and drive
the front through Thursday night with cooler weather following
into the weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 615 am cdt Sat mar 23 2019
vfr skc at all sites to start out the 23 12z tafs. As high
pressure atop the region shifts off to the east, this will allow a
pathway for a developing low over eastern co western ks to shift
east into the mid-mississippi river valley. Clouds will be on the
increase from the southwest late today through tonight, resulting
in mid-to-upper level ceilings this evening through overnight
tonight and Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings are possible over
southern mn close to daybreak Sunday. A few isolated rain showers
are possible in southwestern mn but chances are too low for
inclusion at this point. Light south winds today will go
light variable tonight then pick up from the northeast Sunday.

Kmsp... No issues through today. Ceilings are expected tonight into
Sunday morning with ceilings likely dropping into MVFR range by
midday Sunday. No precipitation expected and winds will remain at
or below 5 knots throughout this TAF set.

Outlook for kmsp
mon...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

Tue...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

Wed... MainlyVFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind S 10-15g25kt.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Jpc
short term... Jpc
long term... Dwe
aviation... Jpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi38 min 35°F 1022.4 hPa24°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi24 minSSW 610.00 miFair34°F26°F75%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from JMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE4CalmE4E3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
1 day agoW7W6W10W8W7W7W7W4W7--W4W4W3NW7N5N5NW5NW6NW5NW4N5NW3NW5NW5
2 days agoNW8NW11N7N6N7N8N7N5N3N4CalmN3NW3NW3NW4NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.