Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 12:39 PM CDT (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 12:20AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 106 Am Cdt Sat Sep 15 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the twin ports... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 105 am cdt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to over 30 knots. These strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 37 nm northwest of french river, to 29 nm northwest of duluth lift bridge channel, to 38 nm west of barkers island, moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Castle danger, barkers island, superior harbor, larsmont, duluth lift bridge channel, twin points safe harbor, and french river. Precautionary/preparedness actions... These strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds in excess of 34 knots...and pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning will likely be required. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these storms arrive. && lat...lon 4669 9229 4668 9224 4672 9224 4679 9214 4719 9144 4717 9128 4686 9155 4669 9174 4666 9196 4666 9203 4671 9210 4666 9211 4665 9216 4662 9221 4663 9228
LSZ145 Expires:201809150645;;664283 FZUS73 KDLH 150606 MWSDLH Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 106 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2018 LSZ143>145-162-150645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 191730
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1230 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 435 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a busy short term period with thunderstorms moving in from the
dakotas this morning, showers and storms throughout the day, then a
heavy rain threat tonight. Heavy rain and flooding are the primary
hazards, but hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest cells.

As of early this morning, a couple clusters of strong storms were
moving across south dakota. One are across the far southeastern
corner of sd has been expanding and slowly drifting eastward,
expanding northward very slowly. The second area of storms was
located across north central sd, but these storms are screaming
eastward at about 50 mph. These storms should reach western mn by
6am, with strong winds and hail possible.

For today, the morning thunderstorm activity should have no problem
continuing eastward directly across our area, from near montevideo
through willmar, the twin cities, and eau claire this morning. After
that, the guidance agrees in developing continuous showers and
storms throughout the day very near this same corridor. Meanwhile,
the southeastern sd acitivity should mostly continue east through
northern iowa, but could see some storms sneak up along i-90 and
move through this morning. For the remainder of the daytime hours,
a band of showers and storms will likely setup west to east across
south central mn, along the northern fringe of the sustained low
level convergence warm air advection aloft. This area will also be
juxtaposed with favorable jet dynamics with the strong jet streak
across far northern mn into canada, and decent vorticity advection
moving through the area. Some hi-res guidance suggests up to an
inch or two of rain is possible during the day across this area.

For tonight, the heavy rain threat is the main concern across far
southern mn. The main takeaway from the latest guidance was there
remains uncertainty in the placement of the mesoscale heavy
precipitation band tonight. The heaviest precip is now forecast to
occur along i-90 and the iowa border. Given the placement of the
low level jet tonight, the highest winds and moisture transport look
to occur from kansas up through eastern nebraska and iowa, and
possibly into far southern mn. Very high pwat values of about 1.75"
will pool along and south of the warm front and would expect
convection to develop along and south of the boundary. Went with a
blend of wpc with the href for QPF with puts down 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts in extreme southern mn, with the maxima
actually occurring just on the other side of the iowa border. There
are some differences in the northern extent of the low level jet
tonight and also the elevated front, so still plenty of uncertainty
in exactly where the mesoscale precip band sets up. Think that
north of the band will see mostly stratiform rain, so not as
concerning. For these reasons, held off on any flash flood watch
until placement of heavy rain threat is more assured.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 435 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018
main concern in the long term is right out the gate with heavy rain
and severe threat, including a tornado potential Thursday Thursday
night. After that, the general idea remains the same, with one cool
day Friday, a dry and mild weekend, another cold FROPA Sunday
night Monday with attendant thunderstorm chances, followed by a more
substantial cool down going into the second half of next week.

The system for Thursday is certainly looking more intriguing
tonight, with a deepening low expected to track from near sioux
city, ia to the northwest twin cities metro and the western u.P. Of
michigan between 18z Thu and 06z fri. This track will bring all
sorts of potential hazards to the mpx area Thursday. It looks like
our precipitation will come in two waves, Thursday morning into the
early afternoon as the warm front lifts north, then late afternoon
into the evening as the cold front sweeps through. Ahead of the low
and cold front, the GFS continues to show pwats increasing to around
2.2 inches, which isn't just high for september, but is getting up
into all time record high territory for any time of the year, so the
heavy rain threat is expected to continue. Given the deepening nature
of the low, the large scale pattern from the severe perspective is
quite impressive, as the LLJ rapidly strengthens to over 60 kts by
the evening. This leads to some impressive curved hodographs in the
warm sector. Any discrete cell we get in this environment will be in
a primed tornado environment. SREF sig tor ingredients continues to
point to southeast mn up into west central wi as having the greatest
potential for seeing a tornadic environment along ahead of the warm
front. Eventually though, storm mode will become linear as activity
develops along the cold front. Given the low level wind fields,
there will be a wind threat with this expected squall line. The
heaviest rain is expected along and east of the low track, with a
fairly widespread 2-3 inches additional inches of rain expected from
around st. James, up through the twin cities and into northwest wi
on east. This is only a slight southeastward shift in what the
previous forecast had.

Behind this system, high pressure drops down from the northern
rockies. We'll have a cooler day Friday, with highs mainly in the
50s and a cold start to Saturday morning. There's certainly
potential for lows to be colder than currently forecast in central
wi, where the lower end of the model envelop drops lows into the
upper 20s out by ladysmith and eau claire. A lot would have to go
right for it to get that cold out there, so stayed with a blended
forecast for now, though there is certainly good potential for at
least a frosty start to the day Saturday out in wi. However, during
the day Saturday, we'll be getting back into southerly return flow,
with highs in the 70s possible out in western mn, with mid 70s
expected to be common across the area on Sunday.

During Sunday, the next cold front will be coming across the dakotas
and this looks to move through here Sunday night through Monday.

We'll likely have a line of weakening thunderstorms moving into
western mn late Sunday night, with storms increasing in
strength coverage Monday afternoon along the cold front. Lapse
rates, shear, and instability all look sufficient to once again
support at least an isolated severe threat, which could very well
end up being our last threat for severe weather for the year.

As the previous discussion mentioned, we see a significant pattern
shift behind this front for the middle of next week, with a rex
block forming out in the eastern pac off the west coast of north
america. The will feature an anomalously strong ridge building well
up into alaska, with downstream troughing resulting over central
north america. This will put us into northwest flow and looks to
result in a cool end to september and start to october.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1225 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a large area of ifr MVFR CIGS continued this afternoon over the
southern half of minnesota, and western wisconsin. Boundary layer
moisture remains high and little mixing in the boundary layer is
noted through the afternoon and evening. Therefore, confidence
remains high that the ifr MVFR CIGS will continue for most of the
taf period. Perhaps a few areas in central minnesota, or far
southern minnesota could see a few breaks in the overcast and
allow forVFR for a few hours this afternoon.

Timing and areal extent of the shra tsra remains questionable
through the afternoon. Not until the main system kicks out of the
rockies and a frontal boundary moves closer to the area will the
areal extent of the shra tsra increase. The best time frame will
be overnight (after 06z), and Thursday morning. Winds will remain
from the northeast in central minnesota, to the east southeast in
southern minnesota west central wisconsin. Winds will become more
southeast south in south central minnesota west central wisconsin
by Thursday morning.

Kmsp...

confidence remains high that the high end ifr low end MVFR cigs
will continue through the afternoon. Very little chance of cigs
rising above 1.7 kft through the TAF period. CIGS will likely
decrease to near minimums Thursday morning, along with shra tsra
and locally heavy rainfall. The first six hours looks to be the
best time frame of only shra.

Outlook for kmsp
fri... MVFR. Wind NW 15g25 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind S at 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Flash flood watch from 7 pm cdt this evening through Thursday
afternoon for mnz073>078-082>085-091>093.

Short term... Spd
long term... Mpg
aviation... Jlt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 59°F 66°F1018.9 hPa (-0.0)51°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F50°F88%1019 hPa

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Last 24hrNE3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmE5NE4NE4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmNE4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
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CalmE5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3N4
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S5S4S5S4S6S4S3CalmCalmNW3CalmNW3N4N4N7NW7N6N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.