Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM   Moonset 11:21 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 245 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - Around 3 ft through Friday morning.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.78 kt at 1214 am Thursday. Seas 3 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.27 kt at 1217 pm Thursday. Seas 3 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.6 kt at 119 am Friday. Seas 3 ft.

PZZ200 245 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Warm front pushes inland Thursday morning. Low pressure drops down from the northeast pacific on Friday increasing winds. A period of active weather persists through the weekend.

FXUS66 KPQR 012222 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 322 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024


SYNOPSIS
Another system will spread relatively light rain across the area this evening into Thursday morning, with another round of light snow for the Cascade passes. Heavier rain arrives Friday into Saturday, but do not expect any widespread hydrological concerns at this time. Cool, wet, unsettled weather likely continues through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Through Saturday Night...Visible satellite shows overcast skies across most of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon as high level cloud cover streams over the region ahead of the next system, helping to hold daytime highs down in the mid to upper 50s again across the area.
Speaking of the next system, the latest in a series of shortwave troughs is apparent west of Vancouver Island on water vapor imagery, with a warm front extending southeastward towards the Oregon coastal waters from an attendant surface low. Light rain associated with this front will spread across the area later this evening from northwest to southeast and continue overnight as the upper wave crosses overhead. QPF amounts remain rather modest with this system ranging from a half to a quarter inch across most of the area through Thursday morning, with generally less than two tenths along and north of a Hood River-Portland- Astoria line. The heaviest precipitation amounts will be focused along the central Oregon Casacdes which could see 0.75-1.00" through Thursday morning. Snow levels remain around 4000 feet, with roughly 2-4 inches of fresh snow expected at pass levels and locally higher amounts above the passes. Expect another brief dry spell Thursday afternoon into early Friday as transient high pressure builds in behind the departing system.
This should allow high temps to climb into the 60s for most inland locations on Thursday.

The more active weather arrives Friday afternoon as a much deeper trough drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and sends a stronger front across the area Friday into early Saturday.
Expect heavier rainfall to accompany this system as IVT values briefly max out around 250-400 kg/ms Friday evening, with precipitable water values around 1 inch running two standard deviations above normal by early May standards. QPF values remain on track from the previous forecast, bringing 1.00-1.50 inches through Saturday afternoon in the interior lowlands, 1.5-2.0" along the coast and in the mountains, and locally upwards of 2.5-3.0" in a few favored spots. Fortunately, the system looks to move through rather quickly with rain tapering off to showers by Saturday evening as the low dives south towards the CA border. So despite the impressive QPF amounts for this time of year, this should help to limit hydro concerns across the area as HEFS probabilistic guidance keeps the chance of even reaching action stage below 5 percent on all area rivers. That said, the system will still bear watching into the weekend given that area reservoirs are close to full and snow levels will be rising above 6000 feet. If nothing else, could certainly see some local ponding of water in prone areas from late Friday into early Saturday. /CB

LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday...Expect an active, cool, and showery pattern to persist into the middle of next week as WPC ensemble clusters continue to show general agreement on some semblance of upper level troughing remaining over the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday. Do not see any signals for particularly notable QPF in any one period beyond Saturday, but area rivers will likely continue to run high for this time of year as episodic bouts of rain continue across the region.
Temperatures will continue to run a bit below normal, with daytime highs struggling to get out of the 50s through the end of the period. /CB



AVIATION
Warm front is slowly inching eastward this afternoon with the cirrostratus shield moving over the region. This shield can be seen in satellite imagery and is the initial portions of this front. Through the afternoon, precipitation chances will increase though clouds will see limited changes through inland locations. Going to see mostly low end VFR conditions as the upper level clouds will insulate enough that lower clouds will struggle to form. Onshore winds along the coast will increase though not looking at any winds above "normal" for the coast during a rainy pattern.

Rains will be the most predominate between 07-14Z Thursday with the strongest rain from KSLE southward, along the Coast Range, and the coastal terminals. VIS may be difficult in some circumstances - especially when wind are stronger and rain is heavier. Overall though, looking at generally unremarkable flight conditions inland, with degraded CIGs along the coast. Do note though that along the mountains, snow is still possible.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
There is no estimated time of full repair and restoration for this location.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with little change in the overall forecast. There is still around a 40% chance of MVFR CIGs between 10-16Z Thursday. However, because of pattern recognition and how warm fronts tend to behave, have decided to drop CIGs into upper level MVFR category (around 2900-3500 ft) to account for the periods of lower CIGs with rain. Bit of a rain shadow so rain will be minimal with very little impact to flight conditions.
-Muessle

MARINE
The warm front is moving near the waters this afternoon and should begin impacting the south-central waters over the next few hours. Winds will be the main impact as they transition to the south with the passage of the front. Winds will generally be 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Behind the front, the pressure gradient will increase and winds will become easterly. Could see higher wind speeds through the coastal gaps and Columbia River Bar early Thursday morning but will be marginal for small craft speeds.
Have maintained the advisory though. Seas will not be impacted by the winds, and in fact could see lower wind waves due to the offshore winds.

The next impactful event arrives early Friday. This low pressure system and associated front appear to be much more robust - though there is ample time for it to change. Seas will build and winds will increase. Not seeing gale force winds, or combined seas exceeding 10 ft though. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ271-272.

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Knappa
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Wed -- 02:18 AM PDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM PDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:22 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:22 PM PDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:49 PM PDT     6.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

Settlers Point
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Wed -- 02:13 AM PDT     3.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:15 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:17 AM PDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:22 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:17 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:42 PM PDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Settlers Point, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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