Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Puget Island, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:20PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 11:42 AM PDT (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 909 Am Pdt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect from 2 pm pdt this afternoon through late tonight...
In the main channel..Combined seas 7 ft this morning building to 12 ft by late tonight. However, seas will temporarily build to around 15 ft with breakers likely during the strong ebb around 445 pm this afternoon, and to 12 feet with breakers possible with the ebb around 5 am late tonight.
PZZ200 909 Am Pdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Gales today and tonight as a warm front lifts north through the coastal waters today, followed by a cold front tonight moving se across the waters. A trough of low pres will linger over the waters Thu, then a weak ridge of high pres builds in Fri. A west to nw swell arriving Thu brings seas to 20 ft for Thu afternoon through Thu night. Another strong frontal system arrives Fri night and Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Puget Island, WA
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location: 46.16, -123.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181656
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
955 am pdt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis A series of storm systems will bring periods of valley
rain, mountain snow and coastal winds through the weekend.

Short term Today through Saturday... Water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a large shortwave trough and low pressure system moving
eastward towards the pacific northwest. A warm front is currently
lifting northeastward into the region this morning and resulting in
light rain falling along and north of a line extending between
pacific city and hood river. Not expecting this band of rain to shift
much farther south so pops were updated to reflect this trend. In
fact, the warm front should shift far enough north this afternoon
that rain may become restricted to extreme northwest oregon and
southwest washington for a period this afternoon. Meanwhile, as our
cwa enters the warm sector this afternoon, strong southerly winds
should push onto our coast. It still appears this will be a fairly
routine, albeit the first one of the season, high wind event for the
coast with wind gusts of 50-65 mph across our most exposed beaches
and headlands. The south washington coast and willapa hills will be
in the best position to receive the higher wind gusts while areas
farther south along the coast may struggle to see 60 mph gusts.

A trailing cold front will then drop southeastward across the area
overnight and early Thursday. Expect winds to drop abruptly upon
frontal passage, which should happen along the north oregon coast
late this evening and late tonight or Thursday morning along the
central oregon coast.

Between ivt values approaching 750-1000 kg ms and strong
frontogenesis initially, a band of heavier rain capable of producing
a 0.25-0.35" of rain per hour will likely impact the south
washington coast and north oregon coast as the cold front drops
southeastward. However, the main upper level trough will likely be
diving far enough south of the region that this front will weaken as
it pushes towards the central oregon coast and willamette valley. As
a result, rainfall rates appear more likely to peak in the 0.10-
0.25" per hour range as the front moves through these areas. There
may be some tendency for it hang up and slow down a little as it
moves towards lane county so steady rain may persist across the
southeastern half of the CWA well into Thursday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a colder and more unstable airmass will spread into the
region late Thursday afternoon and evening. This should turn
precipitation more showery with a few thunderstorms possible over the
coastal waters. Models are hinting that a weak surface low could
develop over the far northeast pacific Thursday night, which could
create a wind field a little more conducive to rotating storms than
current model output suggests so this will be worth monitoring. In
addition, snow levels will lower to near the cascade passes by late
Thursday night and Friday as colder air aloft filters into the
region. Moderately strong onshore flow coupled with the unstable
atmosphere should produce some decent snow accumulations in the
cascades above 4-5kft with travel impacts certainly possible at
santiam and willamette passes.

Any break in the wet weather will be short lived Friday night as the
next warm front spreads light to moderate rain into northwest oregon
and southwest washington late Friday night and Saturday. Subtle, but
significant model differences in where and exactly how long an
atmospheric river will then take aim at the region exist. Neuman

Long term Friday night through Tuesday... .Snow levels will start
to rise as Saturday approaches. Another frontal system will start to
pass through the region on Saturday, which has the potential to bring
another round of significant rain into the area, possibly even more
than we see with the system on Thursday. Expect gusty winds
especially along the coast and in the higher terrain of the coast
range through Saturday. Models show this system stalling over our
area, with the trailing cold front not moving through until as late
as Sunday evening or early Monday. Timing and location of heaviest
rainfall may continue to change with future updates, so those with
plans this weekend should keep an eye on the forecast as this weekend
approaches.

Going into early next week, upper-level ridging starts to build into
the pacific northwest, bringing us an extended break in the rain.

Temperatures climb back up into the 60s as well, but because of all
the recent rain temperatures will be hampered by morning fog. Expect
dry weather to continue through Tuesday. -mccoy

Aviation GenerallyVFR conditions over the southern half of
the willamette valley today, eventually giving way to MVFR
conditions late tonight after about 09z. Elsewhere, a mix of
conditions ranging fromVFR to ifr this morning. ExpectVFR
conditions to temporarily become more widespread this afternoon by
21z over the north interior sites, although there is a chance for
MVFR conditions to persist. MVFR conditons expected to return to the
north interior tonight, most likely after 07z. Along the coast
expect a mix of MVFR to ifr conditions to dominate through tonight.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR expected to remain the most likely flight
conditions today and tonight though 09z, although there is a good
chance for temporary MVFR conditions, mostl likely through 20z
today. Expect a return to prevailing MVFR conditions after 09z
tonight as a cold front moves in.

Marine Southerly gales today into tonight as a warm front lifts
north through the northern coastal waters today, then a cold front
moves SE across the coastal waters tonight. Winds will drop off
behind the cold front tonight. There is a likely to be a coastal jet
influence ahead of the front, where winds are expected to gust as
high as 45 kt within about 10 nm of the coast. Seas will build in
response to the local winds, peaking on the order of 15 ft tonight.

Winds will likely drop into low end small craft advisory criteria
behind the front, which should allow seas to drop a few feet early
thu morning, but a large long period swell will arive later in the
day Thu from the nw. The swell will peak between 20 and 23 ft thu
evening, then slowly subside Fri and Fri night. High surf advisories
will ultimately likely be needed late Thu through at least thu
night. An additional storm system capable of producing at least gale
force wind gusts appears on track for Friday night and Saturday.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for coast range
of northwest oregon-north oregon coast.

Wa... High wind warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for south
washington coast-willapa hills.

Pz... Gale warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for coastal waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10 nm-
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 9 am pdt Thursday for
coastal waters from cascade head to florence or out 10 nm-
waters from cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 2 pm
this afternoon to 6 am pdt Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 19 mi42 min SSW 15 G 24 60°F 58°F1009.9 hPa (-1.8)
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 24 mi42 min 57°F1012.1 hPa (-2.0)
46096 38 mi132 min S 31 G 33 49°F 54°F1012 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 38 mi42 min 54°F8 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 48 mi42 min S 23 G 29 56°F 54°F1008.4 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR25 mi47 minSSW 19 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy58°F55°F90%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW7NW5NW6NW5N6CalmCalmSE3E4SE3CalmE3CalmSE4CalmSE4SE4CalmE4E3S12
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1 day ago----N5NW7W6W3W3S3SE33SE5SE3E4CalmSE4CalmCalmSE6S6S12
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2 days agoN8N6N5NW8NW11NW12NW11NW14NW8W3S3SE3SE3SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmSE5CalmS3SE33E5

Tide / Current Tables for Wauna, Columbia River, Oregon
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Wauna
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Wed -- 01:50 AM PDT     6.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM PDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:12 PM PDT     7.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:21 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
56.46.86.253.82.61.50.60.41.22.94.96.77.57.26.14.73.32.10.90.10.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Skamokawa, Steamboat Slough, Columbia River, Washington
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Skamokawa
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:36 AM PDT     7.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:23 AM PDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:56 PM PDT     8.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:58 PM PDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.97.17.26.45.13.82.51.30.50.61.93.95.97.587.46.24.73.21.80.60.10.82.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.