Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jeffers Gardens, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:35PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 4:09 AM PST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:47PMMoonset 4:10AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 250 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
In the main channel.. - general seas...2 to 3 feet early this morning, building to 4 to 5 feet later this morning. Seas continue to build to 6 to 7 feet tonight into Wednesday morning. - first ebb... Around 215 am Tuesday. Seas building to 5 feet. - second ebb...around 245 pm Tuesday. Seas building to 7 feet. - third ebb...around 300 am Wednesday. Seas building to 9 feet.
PZZ200 250 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A frontal system will move through the waters tonight and Wednesday. A stronger system is likely on Thursday, which is expected to result in gale force winds and seas potentially approaching 20 feet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jeffers Gardens, OR
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location: 46.18, -123.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 200504
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
903 pm pst Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis One more day of dry weather with mild afternoon
temperatures and cool nighttime temperatures can be expected before
a change for the latter part of the week. A pacific frontal system
moves in Wednesday, spreading rain inland. Another stronger system
follows Thursday, bringing rain, winds to the coast, and lowering
snow levels to the cascades. Showery and cooler weather then
continues into the weekend.

Short term Tonight through thanksgiving... Dry weather continues
into Tue evening with models consistently hanging on to offshore
flow. With dry air and mostly clear skies, temperatures tonight
should be similar to last night, cool in the wind sheltered areas
away from the gorge, while winds limit the temp drop in the western
gorge.

Late Tue night through Wed night an upper trough slowly approaches
the coast as the pattern become more progressive. Time height cross
sections show mainly mid to upper level moisture initially with the
trough stretching out as it moves into the old ridge position. Even
so, models indicate sufficient lift to keep pops on the coast and
eventually over the mountains categorical, with likely pops at lower
inland elevations. Limits on low level moisture suggest qpf
potential will be limited. With the continuation of offshore flow,
near freezing temps appear likely to linger into Wed morning in the
central gorge and upper hood river valley. While confidence level is
low due to lower pops in the morning and marginal temps, will need
to include a chance for some light freezing rain in the morning
there.

Models finally in good agreement with the timing of the cold front
moving through Thu afternoon with the next system. With moisture
concentrated more in the low to mid levels and better dynamic lift,
categorical pops will be in order Thu afternoon, with a bit heavier
rainfall potential. Snow levels following the front should drop down
to near cascade pass levels late thu, introducing the possibility
for sticking snow at the passes. Operational models have cooled on
the idea of a surface low anywhere off the or or wa coast as the
front approaches thu, which is not surprising given the modest
surface upper level jet on the order of 100 kt. Still, enough
gradients in the models to suggest a low end high wind event is
possible for the coast thu.

Long term Thursday night through Monday... Onshore flow
following the front expected to keep chances for showers high thu
night, ESP over the mountains with orographic lift. Snow levels
should be below cascade pass levels Thu night, making some ac
accumulating snow as passes likely. Models fairly consistent in
showing a strong shortwave swinging across the pacific NW Fri in a
nw flow along the backside of the upper trough. With the baroclinic
zone lingering, will see chances for rain remain relatively high
through fri. Models suggesting drying weather Fri night and Sat as
an upper ridge moves back in, but details are not well agreed upon
and there remains sufficient doubt in the evolution of things from
sat and beyond into mon, to keep chances for showers going through
the end of the extended period.

Aviation WidespreadVFR conditions and clear skies prevail
tonight as dry offshore flow continues. Like last night, expect
there will be some patchy, shallow fog around in spots. Decided
to go with a persistence fcst for keug, with ifr conditions in
freezing fog developing late tonight and persisting through mid-
morning. Otherwise, fog at any of the other TAF sites should be
transient and brief. Expect increasing mid and high clouds
tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Pdx and approaches...VFR conditions continue through the next 24
hrs. Gusty east winds will continue east of the terminal near
kttd around 30 kt, but winds will be lighter at the terminal.

Increasing mid to high level clouds approaching tomorrow
afternoon and evening ahead of a frontal system. Pyle

Marine Rather benign conditions persist through early Tuesday.

Then a change to a much more active weather pattern will begin
later tomorrow as a fairly strong front approaches the waters. Se
winds will pick up during the late afternoon and evening hours,
then remain gusty through the overnight hours. The latest fcst
models suggest widespread gusts of 25 to 30 kt, with the
potential for some low end gales. Decided to go with a small
craft advisory for the outer waters for now, as mixing should be
limited in the southerly flow. Also, with an offshore wind component
continuing through much of the event, winds should be much
lighter over the nearshore waters. Expect seas to increase into
the low teens late Tue night and remain at or above 10 ft through
much of wed.

After a brief lull late wed, another even stronger system is
expected to arrive on thu. The fcst models are in generally good
agreement in bringing a frontal boundary into the waters thu
morning, resulting in a round of solid gale force southerly
winds. A secondary low is expected to develop along the front and
move onshore somewhere along the north oregon coast thu
afternoon. This secondary low would likely result in a period of
higher-end gales, or possibly even some storm force winds if the
stronger model solutions are correct. Seas will likely build at
least into the mid to upper teens in response to the strong
winds, with some potential for seas near or above 20 ft. Pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 4 pm Tuesday to 4 pm pst
Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence
or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 pm Tuesday to
10 pm pst Wednesday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 6 mi39 min SSE 7 G 9.9 47°F 50°F1014.6 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 14 mi39 min 52°F3 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 33 mi79 min E 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 53°F2 ft1015 hPa (-0.9)47°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi39 min E 9.9 G 11 40°F 48°F1015.2 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 41 mi39 min 54°F3 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 43 mi39 min 50°F1015 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 49 mi39 min 51°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR1 mi14 minESE 410.00 miFair33°F30°F92%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4E33E5E5E3W6W3CalmW5S3SE5CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoE8NE7E7E5E8E5NE5E7NE6NE6E6E5W4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE4SE3CalmSE3SE3
2 days agoCalmE5E13E12E12E15E15
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Tide / Current Tables for Astoria (Port Docks), Columbia River, Oregon
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Astoria (Port Docks)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 AM PST     1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM PST     8.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM PST     6.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.153.82.821.82.43.75.36.87.98.37.76.44.731.60.70.51.22.64.25.76.7

Tide / Current Tables for Astoria (Tongue Point), Oregon
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Astoria (Tongue Point)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:10 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:50 AM PST     1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:01 AM PST     8.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM PST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:48 PM PST     7.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.65.54.22.92.11.82.43.75.47.18.38.88.375.23.31.80.70.51.22.64.467.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.