Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jeffers Gardens, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:05PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:21 AM PST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:43AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 810 Pm Pst Sun Jan 21 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through Monday evening...
In the main channel..Combined seas 15 feet subsiding to 13 feet on Monday. However, seas will rise to near 17 feet during the ebb around 8 am Monday and to 15 ft during the ebb around 8 pm Monday.
PZZ200 810 Pm Pst Sun Jan 21 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Brief high pressure over the waters tonight and Monday will be replaced by a deepening low pressure center which will push a front towards the area Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring another round of gales and increasing seas. Additional systems are expected on Wednesday night and Thursday and again next weekend which will bring increasing seas and more gale force winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jeffers Gardens, OR
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location: 46.18, -123.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 220435
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
835 pm pst Sun jan 21 2018

Synopsis Showers with snow in the mountains in onshore flow will
continue tonight into Monday morning then decrease later Monday and
Monday night. The next fairly strong system will move in mainly on
Tuesday for more rain, coastal wind, and cascade snow. The associated
front will move onshore Tuesday, stall as it pivots and becomes
north-south oriented Tuesday night into Wednesday, then move east
late Wednesday as the next frontal band pushes onshore late Wednesday
and Wednesday evening for more rain and mountain snow. We could see
significant snows in the cascades Tuesday and Wednesday. The trailing
upper low will spread more showers and an even cooler air mass into
the forecast area with snow possibly down into the cascade foothills
and the coastal mountains. Showers linger into Friday, then the next
warmer system is expected to bring rain to the area next weekend.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... The front from earlier
today has finally moved east of the forecast area this evening, with
onshore flow and showers to continue to spread onshore in its wake
the remainder of tonight into Monday. The models suggest decent qpf
and snows in the cascades in the south through a chunk of tonight and
in the north into Monday morning, and thus have extended the snow
advisories out accordingly. The models say that the showers should
decrease by later Monday and especially Monday evening, and that
still seems reasonable.

We had a few lightning strikes move into pacific county washington
earlier in the afternoon, and the models suggest some instability
will continue for while longer tonight near our northern coastal
areas, so will continue to carry a few thunderstorms in the forecast
along the south washington and far north oregon coasts overnight.

The next significant system approaches Monday night and spreads an
occluded front onshore Tuesday for more rain and cascade snow. This
front will bring windy conditions to the coast again. The front
stalls over our area as it pivots and becomes more north-south
oriented due to the upper flow orientation and energy digging south
toward california. That puts us in a prolonged period of rain and
mountain snow from Tuesday through a good part of Wednesday. At this
point, flooding is not expected, but this will need to be monitored.

In addition, significant snows could fall in the cascades during this
period, perhaps one of our better snowfalls of the season so far.

A secondary front will then approach the coast Wednesday afternoon
and move onshore later Wednesday and Wednesday evening for more rain
and mountain snow. This front will be colder, and could be of a
convective nature, meaning precipitation rates could be briefly
higher, with gusty convectively driven winds accompanying it.

Precipitation totals for Tuesday into Wednesday evening could reach
around 4 inches along the coast, with 2-4 inches in the cascades,
highest north, and 0.6-1.2 inches in the valleys. Snow in the
cascades could be 1-2 ft or more.

All in all, it looks like a pretty unsettled week coming up. Tolleson

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Active weather pattern
to continue through Friday as a slow-moving trough keeps swinging
moisture into the pacific northwest.

Snow levels drop Wednesday night into Thursday to around 1500 ft,
then possibly lower by Friday morning. with 850-mb temps lowering
to around -6c on both the GFS and ecmwf, straight model guidance is
trying to bring snow levels down to 500-800 ft, but the pattern
doesn't seem conducive for low-elevation snow (southerly winds and
onshore pressure gradient). Looking at the 1000-500-mb thicknesses,
under onshore flow, we typically need thicknesses below 522 dam for
snow levels below 1000 ft (local study). Both the GFS and ECMWF have
thickness around 522-524 dam. The ECMWF is the lower of the two,
with lowest thickness around 521.6 dam Friday morning. Because of
the pattern and the uncertainty with it being 6 days out, for now i
have limited snow levels to 1000 ft. "if" this does pans out we may
see some snow mix down to around 800 ft; however, with precipitation
fairly light on Friday and ground temperatures above freezing, we
won't see a lot of snow and it shouldn't accumulate below 1000 ft.

Snow levels start to come back up Friday evening as a milder system
starts to move in with another surge of moisture. Saturday morning
will be pretty wet, but ridging starts to build Saturday afternoon,
pushing the moisture plume north by late Saturday night or early
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with how far north this ridge will
build. This will determine whether we dry out on Sunday. Both the
gfs and ECMWF send the plume of moisture north into northern
washington and british columbia, while the canadian cmc sags the
moisture plume farther south over our area. Have leaned toward drier
pops, while keeping a chance due to uncertainty in how far north the
ridge will build over the west coast. -mccoy

Aviation Vfr conditions prevail with isolated showers. Mainly
status quo for the next 24 hours, but could see some brief periods of
MVFR with showers.

Pdx and approaches...VFR through the period. Occasional passing
showers through the next 24 hours. Bowen bentley

Marine No updates needed this evening. The previous discussion
follows. Bowen
while everything settled down today, there was not much time for rest
as eyes shift towards the next front to bring gales to the area.

Given the model consistency for the past several days and guidance
suggesting solid gale force winds Tuesday, went ahead with a gale
watch. Seas do not look quite as high on Tuesday as this past system
with seas likely peaking at or below 20 feet.

The next storm system of concern arrives Wednesday night into
Thursday. There is now a bit better model agreement now with an
occluding surface low tracking towards vancouver island. Gale force
winds are likely again, but seas will likely be a bit higher and may
exceed 20 feet given the track and strength of this low.

There is surprisingly good model agreement even into next weekend
with enough confidence to expect another round of gale force winds
and high seas next weekend. Bentley

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Monday for northern
oregon cascades.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am pst Monday for cascades in
lane county.

Wa... Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Monday for south
washington cascades.

Pz... Gale watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
10 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 4 am pst Monday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst Monday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

Gale watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 10 pm
pst Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 6 mi51 min S 6 G 9.9 46°F 43°F1018.5 hPa
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 33 mi91 min WSW 18 G 23 50°F 51°F16 ft1018 hPa (+1.1)43°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 13 47°F 48°F1018.4 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 41 mi56 min 51°F17 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 43 mi51 min 51°F1020.1 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 49 mi51 min 43°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR1 mi26 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Astoria (Port Docks), Oregon
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Astoria (Port Docks)
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Mon -- 04:39 AM PST     7.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM PST     7.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:06 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:48 PM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:04 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
23.65.46.97.77.87.26.14.73.62.92.83.24.35.66.77.37.26.45.13.52.21.41.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tongue Point, Astoria, Columbia River, Oregon
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Tongue Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM PST     8.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:47 AM PST     2.74 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM PST     7.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:51 PM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.93.65.57.18.18.47.86.553.72.92.83.24.45.87.17.77.775.63.92.41.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.