Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jeffers Gardens, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:53PM Saturday February 24, 2018 8:01 AM PST (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 246 Am Pst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect through late tonight...
In the main channel..Combined seas 9 ft building to 14 ft this morning through early Sunday. However, seas will temporarily build to 15 ft with breakers during the ebb around 1130 am, and to 14 ft with breakers possible during the ebb around 1215 am Sunday.
PZZ200 246 Am Pst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A surface low will move from vancouver island area into western wa this morning. Another system will take a similar track later tonight and Sun. The series of systems through the weekend will result in seas building into at least the mid teens. A quieter period sets up Mon and Tue, then active weather returns.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jeffers Gardens, OR
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location: 46.18, -123.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 241531 cca
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service
portland or 730 am pst Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis Got snow? We will. Head for the cascades this weekend.

Cool air mass remains over the region into next week. Upper low will
push across the pac NW today, with plenty of showers, and snow in the
mountains. Brief let up in precipitation this evening. But, much
stronger system arrives on Sunday, with rain for the lowlands, and
very heavy snow and winds in the cascades.

Corrected typo in regards to coast range advisory

Short term Today through Monday... Upper low pushing now digging
into the pac nw, with plenty of showers over western washington and
northwest oregon this am. So far, not so much in way of showers over
the interior lowlands, as the westerly flow has been leading to
enhancing the rainshadowing effect off the coast range. Still think
will have some showers over the interior lowlands, but will be much
weaker than those over the higher terrain.

Temperatures not as cold as earlier thought, with many lowlands in
the middle to upper 30s, and 40s along the coast. This due to
prolonged southerly winds. As such, snow levels are sitting around
1500 feet this am. Even the astoria esrl profiler shows snow level
now up at 1800 feet over astoria. Snow levels will sit rise a tad
more today. Will end the snow advisory for the willapa hills and the
coast range, as appears threat of snow is only on the higher peaks.

Silver lining of this strong westerly flow is the highly favorable
upslope orographic flow for the cascades. Models show 35 to 45 kt of
850 mb flow, and combined with the cool air mass, will have enhanced
precipitation rates over the west slopes of the cascades, and to some
degree also for the coastal mountains. Think will get 6 to 12 inches
of snow in the cascades today, with 2 to 7 inches for the coastal
mountains and cascades foothills, generally above 1000 to 1500 ft.

Will maintain current winter weather advisories the foothills of the
cascades and the higher cascades for today, and end the advisory for
the willapa hills coast range.

Models all indicate decreasing showers later this afternoon into the
evening. So will keep that trend.

A rather wet and vigorous system arrives later tonight into Sunday,
with precipitation spreading into washington later tonight. Snow
levels still at 2000 feet, or slightly higher. This will keep lower
elevations as rain. Precipitation could be heavy at times in the
morning. While precipitable water values of 0.50 to 075 inch are not
all that high, they are higher than have seen in awhile. So, would
expect decent shot of QPF on Sunday. Models vary a bit, but overall
0.50 to 1.00 inch for the coast mtns, and 0.20 to 0.50 inch lowlands.

But with low snow levels, the 0.75 to 1.25 inch over the cascades
will fall all as snow, about 1 to 2 feet of it. Pressure gradients
stay strong over the cascades on Sunday, supporting ridge top
westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts 35 to 50 mph. With the
powdery snow, these winds will create significant blowing and
drifting of snow. Currently have winter storm watch for the cascades
for late tonight and Sunday, and will let day shift upgrade to
warning. But, very well could see blizzard warning in the cascades
rather then winter storm, due to very windy and snowy conditions.

Again, will let day shift decide this. Not quite as much wind lower
down in the higher terrain of the foothills, but still lots of snow
to fall. Likely to get 9 to 16 inches for late tonight and Sun above
2000 feet.

The cold system will pass the region Sunday night, with decreasing
showers. Snow levels drop again, such that could see minor
accumulations as low as 500 to 1000 feet again. Showers will continue
to decrease through the day mon, and clouds may try to clear from
north to south in the afternoon. But it will be
another chilly day. rockey.

Long term Monday night through Friday... Fairly active pattern
will continue through the long range. Operational 12z GFS and ecmwf,
when compared to the ensembles, are in fairly good agreement
regarding the overall large-scale details. Another short-wave drops
into the area from the northwest Mon night and tue. This system will
have a more maritime influence. Snow levels Mon night will generally
be 1000 to 1500 feet, although down to 500 feet in the gorge and
east skamania county. Model 1000-500 mb forecast thickness values
will be in the 525-530 dm range with 850 mb temps around -5c. This
system slides through the forecast area tue. QPF amounts do not look
all that impressive, but could be enough for snow advisory amounts
in the S washington and N oregon cascades.

Gfs 500 mb spaghetti plots start to show more variation beginning
wed. A deepening upper level trough along the british columbia coast
will allow a more moderate west to northwest 500 mb flow to impact
the area. A leading short-wave is expected to reach the area wed
night. The ECMWF indicates a complex surface low pressure off
vancouver island 12z Thu with an 8-10 mb kast-koth south gradient.

The operational 12z GFS is much different, with a closed low off the
central oregon coast and offshore low-level flow through the gorge.

The ncep GFS ensembles valid 00z Thu are all over the place,
suggesting low confidence in the general forecast. Would tend to
favor the ECMWF at this time and have trended the forecast in that
direction. Eventually, the large upper level trough takes up
residence over the NE pac 00z fri. This would maintain an
unseasonably cool air mass over the region, with snow levels
generally 1000-1500 ft. There is better agreement between the gfs
and ECMWF Thu night and fri, leading to better forecast confidence.

All in all, the extended period will continue the cascade snowpack
improvement, but not expecting any additional valley floor snowfall
during the period. Weishaar

Aviation Cool upper trough sliding southeast across the area
today. Showers increasing currently as embedded shortwave moves
ashore. Expect mainly MVFR CIGS of 1500-2500 ft, with short
periods of reduced vis with heavier showers. Expect -shra at taf
sites, but may see -shrasn briefly mixed in this morning.

Showers decrease by midday with generally improving conditions
for the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds gusts 20-25 kt
will ease later in the morning the switch to southwest-west
through the afternoon. A warm front moves ashore late tonight and
early Sun with conditions lowering to MVFR or lower at the
coast.

Pdx and approaches... A mix ofVFR and MVFR with lower cigs
1500-2500 ft through 18z. Generally improving conditions after
18z with -shra. Southerly winds gusting 20-25 kt will switch to
out of the west to northwest after about 16z. Mh

Marine 1012 mb low pres over vancouver island, b.C. Will track
southeast into western wa this morning and weaken. This feature
will increase winds over the waters. Low end gales are expected
over pzz270 this morning. Small craft advisories for the
remainder of the waters today. There will be a bit of a lull in
the winds later today into late evening before another system
drops south and brings more small craft advisory threshold winds
through Sunday. Also gales are again pretty likely over the
northern waters later Saturday night and Sunday morning so have
put up a gale watch.

Seas are forecast to climb into the mid teens today. The wave fetch
is parallel to the b.C. And southeast ak coast with the core of
the larger seas currently just offshore of vancouver island,
b.C. Bouy 46207 near the north end of vancouver island is reading
20 ft at 11 seconds. The coastal waters should see seas peak
around 17-18 ft this later this morning. Seas slowly subside
later tonight but should pickup to the mid and upper teens late
sun into Mon as more systems maintain the fetch pointed toward wa
& or. Mh

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory for...

north oregon cascades until 4 am Sunday.

Lane county cascades until 4 am Sunday.

Foothills of lane cty and north oregon cascades today.

Winter storm watch for...

north oregon cascades 4 am Sun through Sun evening.

Lane county cascades 4 am Sun through Sun evening.

Foothills of lane cty and north oregon cascades
for late tonight through Sun evening.

Wa... Winter weather advisory for...

south washington cascades until 4 am Sunday.

South washington cascades foothills for today.

Winter storm watch for...

south wash cascades late tonight through Sun evening.

South wash cascades foothills late tonight through
sun evening
pz... Gale watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10
to 60 nm.

Gale warning until 10 am pst this morning for waters from cape
shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until 2 pm pst Sunday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or
out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head or to florence
or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am pst Monday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm-coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 3 am
pst Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 6 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 8.9 39°F 40°F1017.8 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 14 mi91 min 45°F11 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 33 mi71 min NW 23 G 27 43°F 47°F14 ft1018 hPa (+0.8)37°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi43 min NW 17 G 20 42°F 44°F1017.2 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 41 mi36 min 49°F15 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 43 mi43 min 47°F1019.5 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 49 mi43 min 40°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR1 mi66 minW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F34°F82%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE6NE13E11NE13NE10NE8N6NW4N5N3N7CalmSE4SE4CalmSE4SE3SE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4CalmE5E6E5SE4N5E6SE5S4E6E3CalmS4E6E6CalmNE3E8NE8E9NE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Astoria (Port Docks), Oregon
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Astoria (Port Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM PST     3.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:39 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM PST     8.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:14 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:46 PM PST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM PST     5.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.43.13.44.25.56.87.78.187.15.74.22.81.710.81.32.33.44.65.565.85.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tongue Point, Astoria, Columbia River, Oregon
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Tongue Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:05 AM PST     3.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:38 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM PST     8.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:13 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:49 PM PST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:19 PM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.43.13.44.25.678.18.68.57.76.24.531.810.81.32.33.64.85.96.46.35.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.