Wednesday, March29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Watersmeet, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
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Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:24PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 4:15 AM CDT (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 Lake Superior West Of A Line From Saxon Harbor Wi To Grand Portage Mn Beyond 5nm-saxon Harbor Wi To Black River Mi- Black River To Ontonagon Mi- Ontonagon To Upper Entrance Of Portage Canal Mi- Upper Entrance Of Portage Canal To Eagle River Mi- Eagle River To Manitou Island Mi- Manitou Island To Point Isabelle Mi- Point Isabelle To Lower Entrance Of Portage Canal Mi- Lower Entrance Of Portage Canal To Huron Islands Mi Including Keweenaw And Huron Bays-huron Islands To Marquette Mi- Marquette To Munising Mi-munising To Grand Marais Mi- Grand Marais To Whitefish Point Mi- Lake Superior From Saxon Harbor Wi To Upper Entrance To Portage Canal Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border Including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior From Upper Entrance To Portage Canal To Manitou Island Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border- Lake Superior West Of Line From Manitou Island To Marquette Mi Beyond 5nm From Shore- Lake Superior East Of A Line From Manitou Island To Marquette Mi And West Of A Line From Grand Marais Mi To The Us/canadian Border Beyond 5nm From Shore- Lake Superior From Grand Marais Mi To Whitefish Point Mi 5nm Off Shore To The Us/canadian Border- 304 Pm Est Tue Nov 15 2016 /204 Pm Cst Tue Nov 15 2016/
.strong fall storm expected this weekend... A deepening low pressure system will move from the central plains on Thursday to the upper great lakes late Friday and to east of lake superior on Saturday. Northeast winds of 30 to 40 knots will develop on Friday...strongest over western lake superior. Winds will shift to the northwest Friday night into Saturday with gales of 40 to 45 knots expected across most of lake superior and storm force winds over 50 knots possible. Heavy snow showers and squalls Friday night into Saturday will sharply reduce visibility at times. Boating interests on lake superior should stay tuned for additional statements and the latest forecasts as the week progresses.
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 Expires:201611162200;;423832 FZUS73 KMQT 152004 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 304 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016 LSZ162-240>251-263>267-162200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watersmeet, MI
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location: 46.22, -89.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 290832
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
332 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 332 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017
satellite imagery shows mid to high level clouds associated with
a strong storm system tracking form the central plains to the mid
mississippi valley region will increase across the area today.

This storm system will likely produce severe weather across the
central and lower mississippi valley region the next few days. For
this area, available observations and web cams this morning not
showing any low stratus or fog this morning so far. Fog and
stratus was noted across southeast wisconsin, and across far
eastern upper michigan working into the far northern portion of
lake michigan. Will watch to see if there is any expansion which
could impact part of the area this morning.

Otherwise focus with this forecast is the rain/snow mix potential
starting tonight as the northern precipitation region of the
storm system works into central and east central wisconsin, and
then further northward Thursday. The leading edge of the
precipitation is already into iowa at 3 am, so will continue the
trend of light rain working into central wisconsin later by this
afternoon. Boundary layer temperatures suggests precipitation will
start out as light rain across central and east central
wisconsin late today into this evening, but then turn to a mix as
evap cooling saturates the column to mostly snow. To complicated
snow amount totals, will be dealing with the warm ground and snow
melt on impact. Precipitation will likely turn to mostly snow by
early Thursday morning. Will issue a sps for a heads up for the
morning commute. Trend of these models have been to edge up the
snowfall totals, and if this trend continues, headlines may be
needed for part of the area.

Thursday will continue to be challenging with precipitation type
across the area. Boundary layer temps increase enough to produce
a mix and perhaps change to mainly rain for the day. Lfq of an
upper jet nudges into east central wisconsin Thursday morning, so
lift into the higher snow growth may produce periods of snow.

Lowered MAX temps a little for Thursday due to the precipitation.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 332 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017
models continue to show an active split flow across the CONUS with
an upper ridge over the extreme eastern pacific into western
canada and a series of systems dropping southeast into the
southwest CONUS before moving northeast across the rest of the
conus. The first system will already be starting to pull away from
the great lakes at the beginning of the extended forecast with
system #2 expected to impact the great lakes during the Monday
night-Tuesday time frame. Precipitation type could again become a
nighttime issue when temperatures fall close to the freezing mark.

The first system is expected to slowly move east-northeast from
the mid-ms valley to just north of the lower reaches of the ohio
river valley Thursday night. Other than north-central wi, we
should still see precipitation linger over the rest of northeast
wi through at least Thursday evening with light rain becoming
mixed with light snow or light freezing rain as temperatures begin
to fall. Little of any accumulation of snow or ice is anticipated,
but will have to watch for possible icing on area roads as any
ponding of water could freeze as temperatures drop below freezing.

Min temperatures are forecast to be in the middle to upper 20s
north-central wi, lower to middle 30s elsewhere.

Due to the overall slow movement of this system (only forecast to
reach central/eastern oh by 00z Saturday), it is not unconceivable
that a little light rain or mixed precipitation could carry over
into Friday morning over parts of east-central wi before finally
pulling away in the afternoon. A weak ridge of is then expected to
move toward the western great lakes later on Friday and bring
decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast through the day,
although this clearing line may not make it to east-central wi
until late afternoon. Northeast wi will still be dealing with a
prevailing northeast wind, thus MAX temperatures to range from the
lower 40s near lake mi, to the upper 40s north-central wi where
the Sun to arrive first.

The surface ridge remains over the region Friday night, bringing
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds and seasonal
temperatures. Look for mins to be in the middle 20s north to
around 30 degrees south. Quiet weather conditions will continue
into Saturday as the surface ridge starts to slide to our east.

Depending on the timing of a weak northern stream shortwave trough
(the GFS is faster than other models), there could be an increase
in clouds across the area. Do not have enough confidence on the
timing of this feature to justify carrying any pops at this time
and prefer to remove the previous pops placed over the far north.

Max temperatures for Saturday should be in the middle 40s near
lake mi, mainly lower to middle 50s elsewhere.

Northeast wi to be on the western fringes of the retreating
surface ridge while upper heights also build during the latter
half of the upcoming weekend. Generally partly cloudy skies are
expected with temperatures slightly above normal. This would take
max temperatures on Sunday into the upper 40s near lake mi, lower
to middle 50s most other locations. There could be a few upper 50s
west of the fox valley if more Sun can win out over the clouds.

Forecast becomes more complex early next week as a southern stream
system is progged to move from the southern plains northeastward
through the oh/tn valleys toward the new england states. The main
issue is a trailing northern stream shortwave trough and whether
these two systems will stay apart or attempt to phase. If these
systems stay apart, precipitation potential for northeast wi
Monday and Tuesday would be minimal as the southern system would
pass too far to our south. If these systems do interact with one
another, we would be in for a stretch of unsettled weather both
Monday and Tuesday. The consensus of models would favor keeping
the systems separate, however either solution is still plausible.

Therefore, have kept a low chance pop in the forecast for now both
Monday and Tuesday. Obviously, temperatures would be completely
dependent on which solution ends up being correct with max
temperatures either in the 40s with rain or 50s with sun.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1040 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
low clouds and fog over lake michigan should move
west over the land area and bay tonight. These clouds should make
it to mtw, ocq, sue, mnm and grb by late tonight. Might also get
to atw and osh. Think the areas to the west will just have
increasing high clouds with maybe local ground fog.

Whatever low clouds and fog there are later tonight should
dissipate from west to east by midday Wednesday. A winter storm
moving across the midwest could bring a mixture of snow and rain
roughly south of a auw to grb line late Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories

Short term... ..Tdh
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Rdm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 66 mi36 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 27°F 1025.1 hPa
PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI 83 mi36 min SE 6 G 15 33°F 1027.4 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Land O' Lakes, Kings Land O' Lakes Airport, WI5 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair26°F25°F99%1025.4 hPa
Eagle River Union Airport, WI20 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair27°F25°F96%1024 hPa

Wind History from LNL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4E4CalmNE3E3NE3CalmN6N5N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN7N5NW3NW3N4N4N4N4N4N4N4N5CalmNE3N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4SE5SE5CalmE3E3SE4CalmCalmE3CalmN4N4N6N6N3N3N4N3N4NW4N3N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.