Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watersmeet, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:50PM Friday June 23, 2017 8:53 AM CDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0026.000000t0000z-170613t2315z/ 620 Pm Edt Tue Jun 13 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 715 pm edt... For the following areas... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Ontonagon to upper entrance of portage canal mi... Saxon harbor wi to black river mi... At 618 pm edt...strong winds associated with a decaying Thunderstorm complex that moved through late this afternoon have been observed by several marine observations platforms and ships across central lake superior. This includes a 56 knot gust at rock of ages and a 49 knot gust at the western lake superior buoy over the past hour. Hazard...northeast wind gusts to 50 knots. Source...marine weather stations and ship reports. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Locations impacted include... Rock of ages light...the western lake superior buoy and the upper entrance of portage canal. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected. && lat...lon 4787 8964 4827 8853 4814 8855 4789 8923 4790 8918 4786 8923 4790 8890 4790 8900 4810 8859 4811 8855 4719 8861 4718 8863 4723 8864 4711 8873 4712 8858 4683 8934 4656 9043 time...mot...loc 2218z 270deg 32kt 4824 8837 4751 8807 hail...0.00in wind...49kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LSZ241 Expires:201706132315;;181351 FZUS73 KMQT 132220 MWSMQT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 620 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017 LSZ240>242-263-132315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watersmeet, MI
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location: 46.22, -89.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 231145
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
645 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Saturday
issued at 400 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
the cold front had just about exited the forecast area at 09z and
the rain should end by daybreak. Cooler and drier air will work
it's way into wisconsin today, though there could be scattered
showers in the afternoon hours over central and northcentral
wisconsin. Highs will be close to normal for this time of year.

Skies should start the evening our clear, but some clouds will
increase overnight as an upper low approaches from north dakota.

With dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, low temperatures
should be a few degrees below normal.

Saturday will be breezy and cool, with showers and thunderstorms -
especially in the afternoon. The approaching upper low will be
accompanied by 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -25 c by evening
creating an unstable atmosphere that could support thunderstorms
with gusty winds, small hail and perhaps some cold air funnels.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 400 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
an amplified mean flow to persist into early next week, consisting
of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over
the eastern conus. The flow will then flatten toward the middle of
next week as the eastern trough shifts into the atlantic and the
weakening upper ridge gets shoved eastward across the central
conus, being replaced out west by another upper trough. Models are
having issues with the movement strength of this new upper trough
which places uncertainty into the forecast for next Wednesday
Thursday. Bottom line is that the unsettled weather cool
conditions will continue Sunday Monday, then a warmer perhaps more
unsettled pattern for mid-week.

A vigorous little shortwave trough is forecast to push across the
eastern half of wi Saturday evening, before shifting into lower mi
later Saturday night. Even though instability will weaken with the
loss of daytime heating, there is decent mid-level forcing so
anticipate showers few thunderstorms to carry over through
Saturday evening and mostly come to an end overnight. Despite
plenty of cloud cover, the air mass aloft is quite cool by late
june standards (8h temperatures at +2c to +4c range), so min
temperatures will still get down into the middle 40s north-central
wi, lower 50s east-central wi. The next shortwave trough is
expected to drop southeast into the western great lakes region on
Sunday and bring yet another chance for showers afternoon storms
to northeast wi. While this trough is not as strong as its
predecessor, mucapes do approach 300 j kg over east-central wi so
a few of these storms could briefly become strong with small hail
possible. Temperatures will remain well below normal with readings
only in the lower 60s north-central, upper 60s for eastern wi.

Much like Saturday night, it is going to take a while for these
showers thunderstorms to dissipate Sunday night. In fact, some of
the models linger the threat of showers through the night as
instability is slow to diminish and mid-level forcing lingers. The
air mass aloft does not change much, therefore look for min
temperatures to again be in the middle 40s north-central, upper
40s central far northeast and lower 50s east-central wi. The last
in the series of shortwave troughs is progged to move into the
great lakes region on Monday. By this time, upper heights are
beginning to rise over wi as the main upper trough shifts
eastward, thus the air mass aloft will start to moderate. Less
instability should keep shower chances on the low side with no
thunder anticipated. MAX temperatures to range from the middle 60s
north-central, upper 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

An area of high pressure is forecast to build into wi Monday night
and reside to our east on Tuesday. Northeast wi will finally get a
stretch of dry weather with a return of sunshine Tuesday, along
with an uptick in temperatures. Look for readings to mainly be in
the lower to middle 70s.

The mean flow to have become somewhat zonal from the west coast to
the great lakes by Tuesday night. Under this regime, models
typically struggle with timing of systems and this occurs once
again headed into Tuesday night Wednesday as the GFS cmc are
faster than the ecmwf. The faster solution already has
precipitation chances overspreading northeast wi Tuesday night,
while the slower solution holds precipitation off until Wednesday
afternoon. For now, will split the difference and bring small
chance pops to central wi late Tuesday night and go with chance
pops for the entire forecast area on Wednesday (although the
precipitation may hold off until the afternoon hours in the east).

Max temperatures will continue to warm with readings into the
lower 70s north-central lakeshore, middle to upper 70s elsewhere.

Models continue to struggle headed into Thursday with the gfs
showing a west-southwest flow aloft over wi with a cold front
slowly pushing into wi. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has a west-northwest
flow aloft over wi with no cold front. Just too wide a spread
among the models to have confidence in either one, therefore have
followed the consensus solution which runs a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for both Wednesday night and Thursday.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 645 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
good flying weather expected today and tonight, though
there could be a brief shower in the afternoon in central and
northern wisconsin. An upper low pressure system will bring a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Rdm
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 66 mi73 min WSW 5.1 G 9.9 63°F 1003.7 hPa
PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI 83 mi73 min WSW 8.9 G 17 62°F 1002.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Land O' Lakes, Kings Land O' Lakes Airport, WI5 mi58 minWSW 610.00 miFair61°F54°F80%1005.1 hPa
Eagle River Union Airport, WI20 mi58 minWSW 610.00 miFair58°F57°F100%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from LNL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW6W3SW4SW5SW4W3SW4W6W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmW3W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5
1 day agoCalmNW5W4W6CalmS6S3S5SW4SW5SW4CalmCalmS3S3S6S3S4S3S3CalmSW3SW4Calm
2 days agoN12
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NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.