Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:03 AM   Moonset 4:01 PM

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LSZ241 Expires:202310060000;;562980 Fzus73 Kmqt 052307 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz240-241-263-060000- 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Black river to ontonagon mi - . Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royale national park - . Saxon harbor wi to black river mi - .
at 707 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 11 nm east of devils island to near chequamegon bay, moving east at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4667 9043 4717 9010 4719 8952 4680 8956 4678 8976 4663 9001 4656 9034 4656 9044

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 042322 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 622 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms are still possible into early this evening across east-central Wisconsin from Appleton to Kewaunee on southward.

- Dense marine fog on Lake Michigan will lift this evening as a cold front brings cooler and drier air into the region.

- A few rivers will remain around bankfull into next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Sunday

Thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon across portions of central and north-central Wisconsin weakened into a cluster of showers as it moved into far north-central and northeast Wisconsin.
Dense fog continued on the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and across portions of the central Bay of Green Bay from Sister Bay to Gills Rock. The dense fog did extend inland for a mile or two at times. Temperatures at 2 pm ranged from the upper 40s at the Lake Michigan shoreline to the lower 70s from Green Bay southward to Oshkosh.

For the rest of the afternoon into early this evening, there is still the potential for stronger storms across portions of east- central Wisconsin which was still in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Latest mesoanalysis indicated surface based/most unstable CAPE values of 200 to 400 J/KG which is expected to increase to around 500 to 600 J/KG late this afternoon. 0-6km shear values near 50 knots combined with wet-bulb zero heights around nine thousand feet allow confidence in for some stronger storms to form. Latest satellite images also indicated some clearing across Waushara and Waupaca counties which should move into portions of the Fox Valley for the rest of the afternoon to allow for things to become a little more unstable this afternoon. Any showers or storms should end around mid- evening. On the lakeshore, dense marine fog is expected to continue into the evening until the cold front shifts the winds to the northwest and advects in cooler and drier air.

Late tonight, patchy fog is possible across portions of central and north-central Wisconsin. Lows tonight should drop into the middle 30s to lower 40s. On Sunday, skies will start out Sunday with clouds on the increase as fair weather cumulus are expected during the late morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s to around 70.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday

High pressure will bring dry weather Sunday night into Monday evening. Temps may drop into the mid 30s Sunday night but frost potential looks limited to only the far north where frost/freeze headlines have not started yet. Monday will feature temps well into the 60s if not lower 70s. Min RH values look to drop to around 30 percent, but for most part elevated fire conditions are not expected as winds will stay mainly less than 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph at the highest. Any fire weather concerns will be greatest across the sandy soil regions of northern and central WI where green up has not fully occurred yet.

The remainder of next week will be dominated by an initially well organized and rather deep cyclone moving into the northern Plains Monday night into Tuesday with a warm front extending into the western Great Lakes. Models seem to be trending slower with arrival of showers and some embedded thunder on Monday night.
Possible that areas from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore stay dry through late Monday night. Eventually though, all areas will see showers and some thunder into Tuesday as surge of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 1.2-1.3" arrives. Though details are uncertain, an additional round of showers and thunderstorms could develop later Tuesday afternoon. Stronger jet energy and ribbon of instability may reside just south of our area. This likely will hold the key for whether we'll see any severe storms on Tuesday. In terms of rainfall amounts the long term grand ensemble (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) show a 50-70% for over 0.5" of QPF late Monday night through Tuesday night, but are mainly less than 30% for seeing over 1".

Periods of showers and storms are expected Wednesday through Friday as the aforementioned cyclone slowly shifts east and weakens. The disorganized nature of this weakening system makes specific forecast details difficult to pin down. For now expect lots of clouds and periods of rain along with a few storms through the second half of next week. With the recent and forecast rainfall, many area rivers and streams will likely continue near or at bank full through next week.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A band of showers and thunderstorms was moving offshore around TAF issuance, mainly affecting the lakeshore counties. These storms will continue to move off to the east as a cold front pushes through the rest of the area. The cold front will also push any remaining dense fog away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. MVFR CIGs are expected for a period of time behind the cold front followed, by improving CIGs during the evening. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight across central and north-central Wisconsin where skies clear and winds become fairly light towards sunrise on Sunday. VFR conditions are then expected during the day on Sunday.

Gusty west to northwest winds are expected behind the cold front for a period early this evening, before dissipating around sun set. Light west to northwest winds are then expected during the day on Sunday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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