Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watersmeet, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday May 24, 2018 8:41 PM CDT (01:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:18PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ241 616 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Black river to ontonagon mi... Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royal national park... Saxon harbor wi to black river mi... At 615 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm southwest of la pointe harbor to near oak point to 15 nm southwest of saxon harbor, moving northeast at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Saxon harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4702 9020 4681 8996 4670 8990 4656 9041 4656 9044 4665 9044
LSZ241 Expires:201805242345;;474452 FZUS73 KMQT 242216 MWSMQT Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Marquette MI 616 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 LSZ240-241-263-242345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watersmeet, MI
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location: 46.22, -89.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 242336
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
636 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 344 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
convective trends and potential for severe weather are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Isolated convection was developing over north central and far
northeast wi, where a surface boundary was evident, and SBCAPE was
1000-2000 j kg. A strong storm in taylor county appeared to be
producing hail as it moved toward lincoln county. Fairly weak deep
layer shear of 15-20 kts is expected to be a limiting factor for
widespread severe weather development, through isolated large
hail will be possible for the next several hours. Convection
should decrease in activity by sunset.

Expect convection to increase again across north central wi toward
midnight, as a 35 kt low-level jet and weak short-wave trof impact
the region. Though the weakening convection will likely edge east
overnight, most should remain northwest of the fox valley and
lakeshore areas through daybreak. Lows tonight should be in the
low to mid 60s, except 50s near lake michigan.

On Friday, daytime heating (max temps in the 80s) and increasing
low-level moisture (dew points in the low to mid 60s) will allow
instability to increase during the late morning and afternoon.

Models were indicating CAPE as high as 4-5k j kg, but appeared to
be biased high due to high dew points (lower 70s). The ECMWF and
modified forecast soundings off the GFS model indicated that more
reasonable values would be 1500-2500 j kg, which is still plenty.

Deep layer shear of 20 to 25 kts is not impressive, but the
marginal slight risks on the SPC day 2 convective outlook seem
reasonable. Timing is a bit uncertain, as models hint at a couple
weak short-waves arriving during the late morning and afternoon.

The best bet for severe would appear to be over the northwest
half of the CWA during the mid to late afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 344 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
thunderstorm chances are the main concern in the long term.

Thunderstorms remain possible across the area into Friday evening
as instability starts to wane and a mid level trough axis passes
east of wisconsin. SPC day 2 outlook has a slight risk for severe
storms 12z Friday through 12z Saturday, so severe storms cannot be
ruled out. The atmosphere will start to destabilize again on
Saturday ahead of an approaching surface boundary and another mid
level trough. A mid level ridge and surface high pressure should
bring mainly dry weather to the area for the rest of the weekend
into early next week. Another approaching surface system will
bring some rain chances at times into the middle part of next week
and a better chance for showers and storms Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected throughout this
part of the forecast. Highs should be mainly in the 80s, except
near lake michigan, and lows will be in the 60s.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 635 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
scattered thunderstorms are expected across north central wisconsin
tonight. Areas that receive rain and then have clearing could get
some ground fog around daybreak. The remainder of the region should
haveVFR conditions overnight.

An upper level disturbance will move across the area Friday and
produce scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Some of
the storms could produce hail and gusty winds.

Marine
Issued at 344 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
moist air flowing over the cool waters of lake michigan may
produce areas of marine fog tonight into Friday. Nothing is
occurring at this time, so will hold off on any mention until
late evening.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Rdm
marine... ... ... Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 66 mi41 min Calm G 6 66°F 1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI 83 mi61 min Calm G 2.9 68°F 1013.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Land O' Lakes, Kings Land O' Lakes Airport, WI5 mi46 minNW 16 G 270.50 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain67°F64°F91%1017.3 hPa
Eagle River Union Airport, WI20 mi66 minS 37.00 miRain75°F61°F62%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from LNL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7E3CalmSE3S4S5S3S6S6S4SW4CalmNW5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W4CalmSW5CalmW5S5SW5W5W3Calm
2 days agoS4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NE5NE4CalmCalmW6NW5NW6NW6NW5N10N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.