Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:35 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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LSZ241 Expires:202310060000;;562980 Fzus73 Kmqt 052307 Mwsmqt
marine weather statement national weather service marquette mi 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz240-241-263-060000- 707 pm edt Thu oct 5 2023
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Black river to ontonagon mi - . Lake superior from saxon harbor wi to upper entrance to portage canal mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border including isle royale national park - . Saxon harbor wi to black river mi - .
at 707 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 11 nm east of devils island to near chequamegon bay, moving east at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will remain over mainly open waters.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4667 9043 4717 9010 4719 8952 4680 8956 4678 8976 4663 9001 4656 9034 4656 9044

LSZ200
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 180921 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 421 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon across central and north-central Wisconsin. There is a chance of thunderstorms in east central and far northeast Wisconsin this evening. Some storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail the main threat.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through mid-week.
While too early to determine severe potential, confidence is increasing in locally heavy rain on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Sunday

Scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible in far north central Wisconsin early this morning due to elevated instability.
They should end shortly after sunrise.

It will be a summer like day today as gusty southerly winds provide good mixing of the lower atmosphere. Mixing to 900mb or so will result in highs in the 80s in the forecast area, though it will be cooler near Lake Michigan. A scattered to broken line of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a cold front that will move into central and north central Wisconsin in the late afternoon. 1000 J/KG of CAPE and an inverted V sounding could make for a few strong or severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
The activity should should diminish as it moves into the Fox Valley and lakeshore counties in the early evening and encounters lake stabilized air in the low levels and loss of surface heating as the sun sets.

Whatever convection makes it to the lakeshore should move out over the lake by midnight, with clearing skies and slightly cooler and drier air arriving overnight. Lows will be near normal. Sunday should be very pleasant, with light winds, mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Highs will be about 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

As previously mentioned, focus for the extended remains on rain/storm chances through mid-week brought on by an active synoptic pattern. Large-scale ridging across the eastern CONUS is expected to put much of the Midwest under a southwest flow regime through mid-week, which is conducive to warm air advection and moisture transport up from the south. Hence, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with potentially high QPF will be something to look out for.

Monday precip chances... A robust trough situated across the western CONUS will eject a shortwave up into the western Great Lakes, bringing a fast-moving round of rain to the forecast area Monday morning. During this time, a warm front will stall to our south, providing some lift via isentropic ascent and a surge of warm air advection. Additionally, an open Gulf will bring a swath of deep moisture up into portions of central and east-central Wisconsin Monday afternoon, placing a corridor of 1.5+" of PWAT across the Fox Valley. Models seem to be targeting central Wisconsin to receive the bulk of the precip with this system (~0.6" to 0.8" QPF) due to showers being more prolonged over that area.
Most convective elements look to remain to our south along the warm front, but cannot rule out a rumble of thunder along/south of Highway 29.

Tuesday/Wednesday precip chances... As Monday's system departs to the east, attention then turns to a more dynamic system that treks from the central Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Current model guidance suggests that this system has the potential to bring heavy rain to much of the forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday morning, although it is still too soon to discern exact amounts given significant model spread this far out. With plentiful Gulf moisture and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, suspect that QPF will trend on the higher end of what ensembles are currently showing. This being said, forecast confidence is high enough to warrant a day 4 marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the CWA A first glance also shows that thunderstorms may be possible across our southern counties.
However, instability in the warm sector will struggle to make it this far north and east, hindering severe potential for the time being. Will continue to monitor convective elements as medium- range models come into play. Overall, biggest things to look out for will be changes in QPF and risk for flooding/flash flooding.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions prevailed during the evening hours. Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight into Saturday morning with only some mid clouds expected at times. Exception will be near Lake Michigan (possibly impacting MTW/2P2/3D2/SUE) where dense fog and low clouds are expected overnight into Saturday morning. Areas of dense fog have persisted across parts of southern Lake Michigan this evening, and this area is expected to shift/expand northward overnight. Some uncertainty to just how fast this will occur and if it will push inland at all. No evidence of the fog expanding north as of yet and models have backed off on the inland extent, so have backed off the arrival of the lower visibilities and removed the low ceilings. Low chance (under 30%) that some patchy ground fog may form further inland. Fog trends will need to be monitored overnight.

A few high based showers or sprinkles are possible across central and north-central WI overnight into early Saturday but should have no impact on ceilings/visibilities. A broken line of showers and isolated/scattered storms is expected to push west to east across the area Saturday afternoon and early evening, arriving at AUW/CWA/RHI in the 22z to 00z timeframe and GRB/ATW/MTW between 01-03z. Will include thunder in the TEMPO groups for central and north-central WI, but hold off further east as instability will be lower/decreasing as the activity pushes east and/or the storms may stay just to the north of these sites.

Light winds are expected the rest of the night. Low-end LLWS will be possible at RHI overnight as winds at 2000 ft increase to 30-35 kts. South winds will increase Saturday morning, gusting to 25 kts by late morning, with some higher gusts possible in the afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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