Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skamokawa Valley, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:41PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:19 AM PST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 914 Am Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
In the main channel.. * general seas...combined seas around 6 ft today then near 9 ft Thursday. * first ebb...around 930 am Wed. Seas building to 7 ft. * second ebb...around 915 pm Wed. Seas building to 8 ft. * third ebb...around 1030 am Thu. Seas building to 9 ft.
PZZ200 914 Am Pst Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weakening front will move ashore today. High pressure builds over the waters for Thursday and Friday, then a trough of low pres sets up on the coast later Friday bringing a return of north to northeast winds for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skamokawa Valley, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 141817
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
1017 am pst Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis A couple weak fronts will bring a chance of light rain
today and then again on Friday across southwest washington and far
northwest oregon, but the weather will be predominantly cool and dry
through early next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... A quick update to the forecast
this morning to address two aspects. First, the winter weather
advisory for the central gorge and upper hood river valley has been
allowed to expire as of 10 am. After a few reports of light freezing
rain early this morning, temperatures have continued to slowly warm
through the morning. A few pockets of sub-freezing temperatures
remain in the sheltered locations in the upper portions of the hood
river valley, but otherwise temperatures should be warm enough to not
cause any issues when light rain associated with the advancing front
arrives later today. Temperatures were also adjusted around the area
to better reflect diurnal trends.

Surface observations indicate the cross cascade pressure gradient is
now neutral to slightly positive. Models continue to suggest that the
gradient will peak at around 1 mb this afternoon. Still not sure if
it will turn enough onshore to result in westerly winds through the
columbia river gorge given the cold air and stratus that remains
entrenched in the columbia basin, but east winds near the mouth of
the columbia river gorge will continue to trend downward and will
become nearly nonexistent by later today. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track and the remainder of the previous short term
discussion remains valid and follows below.

Models are in good agreement shortwave ridging will then build
northward over the northeast pacific Thursday and Friday. A shortwave
trough dropping southward out of british columbia could result in a
few light showers across mainly southwest washington on Friday, but
this trajectory is not favorable for any significant precipitation.

The bigger story with this storm system is that it will likely
reinforce cold air east of the cascades and help to turn pressure
gradients offshore once again. This will result in east winds
ramping upward Friday night and Saturday, particularly near the
mouth of the columbia river gorge.

Finally, a combination of local pollution and smoke from california
wildfires has led to worsening air quality across northwest oregon
and southwest washington over the past 24-72 hours. Surface high
pressure will be squarely centered over the CWA today, which should
result in very light surface winds across interior valleys. In
addition, model soundings indicate very little mixing will occur
today due to the cloudy conditions. As a result, stagnant air
conditions will likely persist into Thursday morning. However, by
Thursday afternoon, a combination of a bit more sunshine
to aid in vertical mixing (approximately up to 1500 feet) and
increasing northerly winds in the willamette valley, there should
begin to be some relief from the stagnant air conditions plaguing
the region currently. Cullen neuman.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... Operational models
remain in agreement shortwave ridging will more than likely bring dry
conditions to the region Saturday night through Monday. Expect east
winds to persist near the mouth of the columbia river gorge for much
of the extended forecast period. However, winds away from the gorge
will likely be light and mixing will be limited so we may need air
stagnation advisories for the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe if
current model depictions of the basic weather pattern hold.

With that said, models do diverge on how the synoptic pattern will
evolve beginning Monday night and Tuesday. The operational ec
suggests a weakening front could bring rain as early as Monday night
or Tuesday to the region while the GFS suggests rain could hold off
until after Wednesday. However, most members of the GEFS suggest
rain will likely arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. Given the somewhat
splitty nature of the pattern depicted by the models, suspect
precipitation will arrive on the later end of the spectrum, but for
now trended pops towards a blend of the model solutions given the
uncertainty. Neuman

Aviation A weak front will continue to move across the region
today bringing some light rain and a mix of ifr, MVFR andVFR
flying conditions. Expect the front will move through the
willamette valley between 18z-21z today. As the front pushes into
the foothills this afternoon, it will stall and weaken
considerably. The lowest ceilings and vsby will be along the
coastal region today with a mix of ifr and MVFR conditions.

Inland, mostly low endVFR conditions with some temporarily MVFR
conditions as the front moves through. Wind becomes very light
tonight and with moisture from today's front, expect areas of fog
to form thur morning, brining a mix of ifr and MVFR conditions.

Pdx and approaches... Low endVFR conditions expected to continue
through mid afternoon. CIGS may lower to high end MVFR (2500-3000
ft) after 21z and persist through the afternoon into early
evening. There is a good chance for MVFR CIGS for the overnight
hours into thur morning.

Marine Winds have dropped below SCA in the outer waters, but sca
winds will continue through midday in the inner waters, then
weaken to 15 to 20 kt for the afternoon and evening. Offshore
flow is looking increasingly likely for the weekend for a return
of moderate north-northeast winds.

Seas will remain 5 ft then build into the 7 to 9 ft range tonight
behind the front. A trailing dynamic swell train will then
briefly bring westerly seas near 10 ft late tonight and early
Thursday. Seas than drop to between 5 and 8 feet for several days
thereafter. Tw mh

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 7 am to 8 pm pst
Thursday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds until noon pst today for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or out 10
nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 17 mi31 min ESE 5.1 G 8 46°F 51°F1028.1 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 29 mi37 min 51°F1028.5 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 36 mi49 min 53°F8 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 41 mi37 min S 13 G 16 52°F 50°F1026.6 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR24 mi24 minSSW 85.00 miFog/Mist53°F52°F96%1027.5 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4NE4E6CalmE4CalmSE3SE4CalmCalmSE3CalmE4E4E5CalmE3E5E5E3NE9NE3S8
1 day agoE13E10
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SE10E10SE10SE7E6E7E6E6E7E7E6E4E3CalmCalmSE5SE5S6SE4CalmE4E4
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Wed -- 12:35 AM PST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM PST     6.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:51 PM PST     3.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:42 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:41 PM PST     6.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:52 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.71.42.645.36.36.66.35.64.73.93.43.23.74.85.96.76.86.45.64.43.22.2

Tide / Current Tables for Harrington Point, Columbia River, Washington
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Harrington Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:29 AM PST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM PST     6.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:45 PM PST     3.54 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:43 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:33 PM PST     6.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:52 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.61.32.53.855.865.75.24.543.63.644.85.66.16.25.853.92.81.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.