Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skamokawa Valley, WA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:41PM Sunday February 17, 2019 5:42 PM PST (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:27PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 212 Pm Pst Sun Feb 17 2019
.small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar in effect until 4 pm pst this afternoon...
In the main channel.. - general seas...5 to 7 feet through Monday. - first ebb...very strong ebb around 3 pm Sunday. Seas building to 12 feet with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 330 am Monday. Seas building to 9 feet with breakers possible. - third ebb...very strong ebb around 4 pm Monday. Seas building to 11 feet with breakers possible.
PZZ200 212 Pm Pst Sun Feb 17 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak low will be moving through the waters from north to south today. Then high pressure will build into the waters later tonight behind the departing low. High pressure remains over the waters next week, but several lows will move down along the coast. The strongest of these will likely arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skamokawa Valley, WA
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location: 46.27, -123.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 172317
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
316 pm pst Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis Plenty of clouds remain, but skies will gradually clear
through this evening for most of the forecast area. This will set the
stage for a chilly night with temperatures falling below freezing for
the vast majority of the area by Monday morning. Clouds will increase
for Monday as a very weak disturbance moves in from the pacific. This
system may produce a few flurries or sprinkles Monday and Monday
night, but any precipitation should be very light. A better-organized
frontal system will spread more significant precipitation across the
forecast area Tuesday. Snow levels will remain low, but likely just
above the valley floors. Several more inches of snow are expected out
of this system for the cascades.

Short term Tonight through Wednesday... Sunbreaks developed across
much of southwest washington and northwest oregon today, especially
along the coast where skies have turned partly to mostly sunny. Krtx
radar is quiet this afternoon, but based on visible satellite imagery
it appears a few showers linger under radar scans across portions of
lane and linn counties. Snow levels remain low... So most of these
showers are probably falling as snow above 1000-1500 feet.

Accumulation appears doubtful due to the hit-or-miss nature of these
showers and marginal surface temps below the passes. Expect any
lingering showers to dissipate as the Sun GOES down.

The general clearing trend should continue this evening as high
pressure builds southward into washington and oregon. There does
appear to be a cold front at the head of this air mass; this front
has moved southward from the okanagan across much of the columbia
basin. Precipitation with the front has been scant and should
generally remain so, though some easterly upslope flow may allow for
some flurries or light snow to develop for hood river and eastern
skamania counties late tonight into Monday. This has been shown well
by the nam, though it appears a little overdone on qpf. Again, this
should not amount to much, with any snow accumulation likely to
amount to 1 inch or less.

Models continue to hint toward very light precipitation developing
across much of the forecast area Monday as the remnants of the cold
front interact with a shortwave trough incoming from the pacific.

Forcing is extremely weak over the CWA Monday and Monday night, but
there is some weak isentropic lift combining with shallow instability
(only up to 800-850 mb) per the 12z gfs. With seeder-feeder processes
possibly coming into play, decided to mention occasional flurries or
sprinkles for most of the forecast area Monday. Stronger isentropic
lift gradually develops as warm advection increases ahead of the next
low pressure system diving down from british columbia Monday night
and Tuesday. This should cause precipitation to slowly increase
through that period. There may be a brief period of lowland snow or
rain snow mix as precipitation develops early Tuesday, but models
suggest s-sw winds develop quickly as the low approaches and pressure
gradients tighten between the incoming low and our higher pressure
departing to the south. This should mitigate the threat of a
significant valley snow event, with snow levels rising to around
1000-1500 feet by the time most models bring the main batch of
precipitation associated with the incoming low front Tuesday
afternoon. Robust onshore flow will likely rack up several more
inches of snow for the cascades and foothills, where advisories may
be needed.

Valley rain and mountain foothill snow showers should persist into
Wednesday as the low pressure system continues s-se across western
oregon and another lobe of low pressure tries to develop near the pac
nw coast. However, the overall trend will be toward drying out later
Wednesday as the next cold and dry high pressure system builds
southward from british columbia. Weagle

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... The 12z GFS and 12z
ecwmf have the area in a semi-moisture laden post-frontal
environment from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday the
pattern starts to shift as a ridge slowly becomes the dominant
feature through Friday morning. Friday afternoon a shortwave trough
will start to bring in the next slug of moisture. This is expected
to stay around as a deeper trough comes in from the gulf of alaska
to reinforce the all ready present moisture through Sunday. 850 mb
temperatures look to hold in between -6c to -5c and a steady onshore
flow pattern continue to signal minimal snow chances for the valley
floor for the later part of the week. However, the models are
showing the wind shifting into an offshore flow pattern towards the
start of next week. If this wind shift does happen it could provide
the needed push to bring flurries to lower elevations, but being
well into the extended this trend could easily change with new data.

42

Aviation Mix of MVFR toVFR ceilings across the interior this
afternoon, with the trend toward predominantlyVFR continuing
this evening. However, expect a return to lower MVFR with pockets
of ifr low stratus or fog in the more favored locations in the
interior lowlands. Meanwhile, light precipitation - in the form
of rain or snow - may develop across the coastal areas after 12z
and possibly push into parts of the interior during the day
Monday, but impacts should be minimal.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions continue through early
tonight. However, expect that lower stratus may develop after 12z
for possible MVFR conditions. Light precipitation may arrive
early Monday, in the form of light rain or snow. Cullen

Marine Weak low pressure is moving from north to south through
the oregon coastal waters today, keeping winds well below
advisory criteria across the waters. Weak high pressure begins
to build later today, which will persist through much of this
week. However, periodic low pressure systems are expected to move
through from the northwest. At this point, the most significant
of these looks to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
will bring the potential for some higher-end advisory strengths
winds, or possibly gales, during this time period.

Seas will hold around 10 feet this afternoon, before gradually
dropping below 10 feet late this evening or overnight. Seas will
remain below 10 feet through the next several days, but seas will
build again more significantly with the system on late
Tuesday early Wednesday. Expect seas to build to at least 15 feet
and possibly approach 20 feet around midweek. cullen

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 pm pst this
evening for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst this afternoon.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 17 mi55 min N 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 41°F1023.8 hPa
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 29 mi61 min 40°F1024.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 36 mi43 min 46°F8 ft
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 41 mi61 min NE 6 G 7 45°F 46°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR24 mi48 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds44°F33°F65%1024 hPa

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4E5CalmSW3SE5SE6E4CalmCalmE3CalmE5SE3E4E4E8NE10NE7N8NE5N4NW3N3
1 day agoE5E4E4SE4E3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4N4NW11NW8CalmW4W6N8W9
2 days agoS7SE10E7E6E53E4S4SE9SE5SE10SE5SE7SE6S8SE4SE6SE3E6S4E8E7E8E6

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
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Sun -- 12:18 AM PST     7.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:05 AM PST     2.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM PST     9.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:12 PM PST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.96.153.932.73.14.56.38998.16.64.72.81.1-0.2-0.8-0.4135.1

Tide / Current Tables for Harrington Point, Columbia River, Washington
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Harrington Point
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Sun -- 12:10 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:59 AM PST     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:21 AM PST     8.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:06 PM PST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.56.35.64.73.83.22.93.44.76.37.78.58.47.55.942.20.6-0.6-1.1-0.70.82.84.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.